F04: An interesting but expected turn of events occurred in the Fall of 1904. There were some small blunders and some new twists for countries that will soon be finding themselves in a desperate situation in the coming year. I will certainly have more to say this post than from the prior, so hold onto your seats for this.
Since the dynamic of the board will be changing starting in the year to come, I will begin by removing my commentary by each Power Sphere and go from the top position on the board to the bottom position.
#1 France: France has stapled the top position on the map and secured for himself a spot at the end game barring a catastrophic and unforseen event. Essentially, this means that France will participate in a draw or take a solo unless the rest of the board gangs up on him, and I certainly don't see that happening. His unit size is closely compared to a few other countries on the board and his ability to grow will be closely matched by other players, and the fact that he's sitting secure with a German ally all indicate that he will end this game on a positive note. The movement south across the stalemate line has proved successful and now France is looking at gaining some Italian soil but future gains here will certainly take time. Italy having builds and a retreating fleet will slow his progress unless France has a pocket-ally in the east. I agree with all of his moves and the complete DMZ of the French-German border indicates that neither power has any desire to turn on the other. The only tangle that France will have to iron out is what to do with the English Isle. Clearly neither F nor G wants to tie up 2 to 3 units on the island in order to keep the peace, so the question remains about how to back off peacefully and put those units to better use. For builds, I anticipate a fleet build in Marseilles.
#2 Germany: Closely matched to France, Germany is sitting nicely with no enemies and room to grow. The moves were pretty self-evident but I disagree with the North Sea's support hold of Yorkshire. It's not a center and you have no real stake on the Island as it is, so...why hold it? You'd have been better off using the North Sea to support Sweden into Norway for a build this season. I understand that you want an army there, because your next target will be Russia, but it's better to get the army build now and convoy next season. Now, England will be working with Russia as much as he can to stay alive (not that it matters much) but an English fleet can certainly be a pain in the neck if it can offer to ally with anyone on the board. I will say, however, that you are in more of a peril than France because he simply controls more units along your mutual borders with 3 in England, 1 in Burgundy and a build coming. I'm certain he will concentrate on Italy in the years to come, but what afterward? Also, you'll see a build at Norway and probably St Pete but depending on what Russia can and cannot do, you might be faced with some growth slowing and you'll have to figure out what to do afterward.
#3 Italy: Having 2 builds is going to be your strongest ally in the year to come. Being a 1/3 partner in a RIT will help but you have the added penalty of having an angry Austria at your back coupled with a threatening France at your front. If the RIT holds out, then you could be in a decent position, but if Austria is eliminated and you're still around, there will be talks of eliminating another player for a 4-way or two players for a 3-way and the top elimination would likely include you unless you can find some additional growth. If you manage to make it to 8 units, then you'd be far more secure than you are now, but the biggest problem you're facing is that you've got a strong France with nothing to do to your left, an almost certain enemy Austria to the right and 2 other countries that also want to participate in a draw. This is what I mean anytime I say that Italy has to manipulate the west and ensure that the east is the first person to see a country eliminated because if the west is first, you're in trouble. Now it's going to come up to clever thinking and knowing what your opponent will do before he does it. The biggest key is to get a unit behind France without putting your neck at the dog's throat. Budapest is looking quite nice this year and it's possible that you could come away with 1 build next year, 2 if the stars have aligned in your favor. For builds this year, I expect to see a fleet at Rome and an army at Venice. A build at Naples is possible but only if coupled with a build at Rome and a double-fleet would be ridiculous.
#4 Russia: Russia is going to be facing some problems starting next year. The decline from 8 down to 5 in a single season continues to flaunt its ugly face and with England essentially gone in the west and Germany seeking new territory. Fortunately, England isn't gone completely and Germany did *not* get a build, but with Austria working with Germany, it will certainly throw a kink in your gears. I expect that fire will be met with fire in the year to come as your units surge forward to clash with Germany's but diplomacy will have to play an integral part in your plans. Anytime I look at the board, I want to be in the #1 spot (clearly) and if I'm not, then I want to find enough people to rally with me that OUR combined force is the top force in the game. Since F and G are tightly allied, this gives their force a total of 15 untis. In order for things to go smoothly for you (or more so), your force needs to comprise of more than 15 units. Given that Austria could be working with Germany, they could conceivably have 17 but smart playing on your part as well as others could give you the upper hand. You're by no means out of the game, but you certainly haven't sealed your part in the end yet either. Obviously to feel comfortable, you'll need 2 more centers, the first of which is a fleet in the north to counter-act the opposing German navy, and another army somewhere in the mix would fill in the gaps nicely. The only question is about where to expand.
#5 Turkey: Still not out of the box, your position is not a very happy one, but not necessarily bleak either. To the negatives, I don't see where you expect to see some growth but the positives outweigh the negatives. To the positive, you have an ally in any country that directly borders your centers and each of them has an enemy on the other side of you: Russia with Germany and Italy with France. This means that you've got some room to negotiate. Either you attack Italy or Russia to gain some growth and hope that the F/G doesn't try for the 2-way or solo or you play the supporting role and use your units to R and I advantages to slow down the F/G. In any situation that's getting closer to the endgame, it's often that two powers try to find a suitable third to form the draw trio. It also usually involves to western powers finding a third eastern or two eastern finding a third western. Rarely does a triple alliance form from one power sphere and rape the board. F and G will be the powerhouses looking for a third person to help them mop up and you're in the best position to fill that role. On the flip-side, if someone's going to solo, (F over G) then you certainly don't want to be the guy helping them do it. Your next year will determine which avenue you take and sometimes it's not an easy choice to make.
#6 Austria: Not out of the game yet, but I do see it coming. The German support was strangely unexpected and even more strange was the fact that it was accepted. The F/G combined with a I/T or ITR does not bode well with a 2-center Austria, especially with neither of your units in any position to work together adequately against one singular power. If I were in your shoes, I would certainly not have retreated home from Galicia and I would have tried to take Warsaw. You already know that you're losing centers at home, so it's important for you to maintain and squeeze yourself into positions that make you a great ally. No one wants to help a 2 or 1 center country defend his homeland from assault. It's much better to be the proverbial thorn in someone's side with units in particularly sensitive areas and ally with his enemies. In this instance, if you would have taken Warsaw and lost Vienna, you still have 2 centers like you would if you saved Vienna and not gained Warsaw. In addition, and clearly seen in this example, if you'd have tried for Warsaw, you'd be at 3 units with a build coming at home giving you more power, flexibility and room to negotiate. Better for you to have 2 units side-by-side and control of someone's home center than to only have your own. I give you until the end of 05 and then I expect that you and England will be walking out the door hand-in-hand. Good game, though, and things started out great. It looks like the Turkish NMR early on hurt you more than anyone.
#7 England: It's been a rough ride for you this game, but some of them are like that when they never have a chance to go uphill and only start downward. There's not much to say here, even if Russia has your good graces at heart. Now it's simply time to shake hands and wish everyone a good game.
Things to look for:
What's the dynamic going to be in the east? Turkey will be the biggest swing-vote in the year to come and there will either be a RIT, which I'm predicting, with Austria doing whatever Austria can do to survive, or there will be a Turkish stab to ply for the three-way with F and G. The other big question is whether or not Italy can hang in long enough to wait for the cavalry. France has already crossed the stalemate line and Italy is under-defended. If no one shows up with a fleet and some good graces, Italy will begin its downward spiral.
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Doctor Who: the New or the Old orOld or Old or Old.....???
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