Is France about to NMR on his Build move? Someone should give him a poke, as that hurts the competitive dynamic in this game where everyone is learning.

This should be a wait for orders game, no?

It should be, ideally. But enough mods are following it/are professors that I hope they would see.

Study group is wait for orders...

in response to ghug though,

An E/R makes more sense than an E/G from *England's* perspective, surely. I agree with you there. But this is from Russia's perspective I'm talking about. And an alliance with Germany makes more sense for Russia, unless England makes some concessions. Regarding the bounce in Sweden, that was more an argument to *not bounce in Ber* than anything else. If you got the peace offer from Austria, you know that Germany knows that Warsaw isn't falling. Which means the unit in Silesia will 100% be going to Berlin to protect it. Why bounce it there? Allow it into Berlin. By all means, let your enemy move armies away from your home SC's successfully.

As for the I/T, I think we just fundamentally disagree there. Of all the possible eastern alliance pairings, it is the least stable. By far. Every other pairing you could take over the West without getting in each other's way. In an I/T, Turkey always, inevitably will get blocked off completely by Italian troops, or easily roadblocked by 4 or so German/English units.

My advice for the Turkish player was specific to him, as Turkey is in a unique position to start thinking in a different mindset. Maybe I was a year premature. But it was more of a threat assessment advice. Who does he think he can partner with in the West with the best solo attempts? What sort of board does encouraging a partnership with each of the Western powers lead to? Which is the best scenario for Turkey? That sort of thing. Turkey is poised for rapid growth and as such should start considering what the Western powers view the situation as.

I agree with ghug on his assessment of Austria's Spring demands, but I think in the meantime each should've taken stock of the situation a bit more. The Russian convoy, and more importantly *the two Turkish supports for the convoy* should've painted a very clear picture of the alliance dynamics in the East.

Bump

I'm now looking for a sub for France. PM me if you're interested.

Oh sorry, I meant E/R makes more sense than G/R. EG still makes the most sense.

We have a new French player, and we're underway again.

My posting will be limited this weekend. Hopefully someone *cough* yoyo *cough* can fill in

If anyone would like to sub in for Turkey, let me know. I'm trying to escape/finish any games shorter than 7 day phases (that are full press).

I think you should try the other thread MAT

Odd, volunteering sandyshu for replacement

Wrong thread matticus, Im quite happy with my position as turkey...

Oops

Do I get a gold star for successfully demonstrating my ability to defend my country both in game and in forum?

I'll jump in.

^sandyshu is bae. Just thought I'd say that.

Sorry guys. Very busy couple of days. You'll get extra attention when I'm free again.

SPRING 1903:
By and large, this turn was good for the defenders and bad for the attackers. The board hasn't changed that much, and that gives people in tough spots time to alter their fortunes and the people who should be in control less of a chance to surprise and overwhelm the board with quick growth.

THE WEST:
FRANCE - B
Good job. You guessed right and they made no progress. Obviously you can't do that forever, though. All this does is buy you time to break them up, so you better have more up your sleeve.

E/G - D
That's the sound of your momentum continuing to slip away. You got nothing done this turn at all. You'll eventually break France, sure, and Russia will fall too once Germany sends his fleet and army back that way, but you're gonna be lucky if you can get any centers by even next year, and in the mean time, Turkey will continue to grow, now probably at a sustained faster pace than Russia, thanks to the latter's need to devote units to defending himself from you. We said at the beginning that you really need to be thinking about the solo from the start, and that means looking at the whole board. You've found yourselves what looks to be a solid alliance, but you're not doing enough with it, and you're quickly dooming yourselves to a three way draw at best because of it.

THE EAST:
AUSTRIA - B
You've got Trieste back, and Turkey isn't going to break the Italian without your help. Great turnaround! Now you have to consider how to compound upon it. Will Turkey need you once he's broken Italy? Will you get anything out of it? Can you gain elsewhere? You have options now, but your position is still precarious, so be careful.

ITALY - B-
You've locked down the Ionian for the time being, and you can handle losing Trieste, but the retreat makes me think you're still not on good terms with Austria, which spells trouble. You can't make any offensive moves without a friend, and right now you don't have a friend.

TURKEY - C
I really don't like the move to Albania. If Italy was going to take Ion, you could have always reheated there later, as he wasn't going to ever strand his army in Albania to be disbanded. A bounce in Tys would allow you to take back Ion this turn, but instead you wasted the unit, and now you're stuck with Italy until something happens to him in the north. On top of that, you've allowed Russia into Bla, which could certainly be good for establishing your alliance on even terms, but also makes you decidedly weaker in your own right.

RUSSIA - D
What's your next move here? You've devoted two of your four units to keeping England out of a center he already owns, and the only person your others are really positioned to do any damage to is your ally. You need a path forward or you'll eventually be crushed by EG in the north and outpaced by Turkey in the south. The others have given you time, thankfully. Don't waste it.

Okay, busy weekend is over. I'll try to get some commentary out today

Lecture 7: A New Challenger Approaches!

What do you do when someone takes over another nation? This is a bit of a special piece that I'm doing by request.

A replacement player changes the dynamic of the game tremendously. Now, to analyze how to approach a player who takes over a power, you should first look at what a new player does upon taking over a power.

Most new players will prioritize not being ganged up on over everything else for the first season, so recognize their wants and try to serve that as best you can. Typically, when I take over a country, I look at the past press. All of it. I do this to see who my predecessor had the best rapport with, who has lied and who has remained faithful, and just general background knowledge. Typically, I will reach out to every single other power to re-establish communications, but if others reach out first, that's a welcome sign. From there, I assess the current battle plans, if there are any, and see if that's the way I want to take my nation. Most often, I will continue on with whatever alliance I was already in, since in most cases that's what the board state demands. But if its early and my predecessor hasn't committed against anyone yet (or made a really dumb decision in who to fight) then I'm a blank slate, open to any and all opportunities.

Now, how does one approach someone who is undergoing said analysis? If the replaced power was your ally, you must not assume that the new player will continue to be your ally. Re-establish communications like it's 1901 again and work through the elements of your plan, just in case the replacement player has not done their due diligence in reading back. But this is a new pitch, and you need to devote a lot of press to them to get some kind of rapport going and get a way to read them. But the good news is that you're fighting a downhill battle, so-to-speak, since in the majority of situations a replacement player should be expected to keep their old alliances.

But that's not to say that a power on the receiving end of the replacement player's attack shouldn't do anything! A new player means a fresh mind to persuade. It is most important for you to get press out to them *first* before they can read anything from their ally. That is your best chance at persuasion. Get to them, if possible, before they can read back or start having conversations with their ally. Its very possible that you could strike up a better rapport with the new controller of the country than the old.

And that's about it. Replaced players are disruptive, and fairly often can completely change the tenor and tone of a game. This may not become apparent until farther along in the game, as cracks in an alliance show. Maybe the new Russia in a Jugg is a stronger negotiator than the previous one, and presses hard for Trieste, which irritates Turkey. If you're Italy or Austria, you have to keep your ears out for these sorts of things, as they offer opportunities for you to break up an opposing alliance. So when a new player comes in, don't just talk to them, but talk to their ally as well.

Lecture 8: 1903 (Spring and Fall)

Well this was quite a year for some powers. Others were just treading water. Let's do a rundown.

THE WEST

England: B

Not a terrible year, but not a great one. That misorder will sure cost you. It had to be a misorder, right? Because there's no way that France doesn't do a supported bounce into the Channel, and the only thing that move would've been better at (than a hold) was if France planned on self-bouncing in the Channel. In very few cases would France self-bounce rather than support himself there.

As for the East, things went well. Russia will be a problem for you, so you need to work on that with Germany. I'm assuming that bounce in Sweden was planned, but the defense there cannot continue indefinitely so long as Russia pressures both Sweden and StP. One of them is likely to fall this year (barring perfect guesses and coordination) to either Germany or StP.

Diplomatically, you both need Germany to help you out by attacking Russia and to keep him happy. Germany has many idle units. An ally with idle units and no growth is a lot of warning flags. Do be sure to keep up the press with him, make sure you have a plan that is pro-German, and keep him on your side. Also, a E/F here would be bad for you - you'd lose Scandinavia instantly. Just in case anyone in the peanut gallery asks that.

France: B-

Your grade is not low due to tactics. Nor strategy, really. You've been shoehorned into the moves that you put in, and there's only one (minor) change I would've done. I'm knocking you because of your lack of ability to talk yourself out of a E/G for nearly two full years now. You gotta work on your press with England and Germany! Germany is stuck, absolutely mired with a ton of units but no places to go with them. Use that as leverage. The danger is, so long as England is not growing and the East is mired down, Germany might not really care that he's not growing. Its a real possibility, yes, but its not insurmountable. Talk with your TA on ways to approach Germany, particularly. See if you can get his mind off of blue lands.

I say Germany because England will be a bit harder to reason with. This is because sooner or later, England's fleets will break you. It was pure luck that he didn't take the Channel this year, and open up a whole world of possible ways to hurt you. Be mindful of this with your fleet order choices.

Which brings me to the one flaw I see in your movements this year, your fall fleet orders. Spring worked marvelously in blocking the English. However, you should have seen how England was going to adapt to those moves. Hitting MAO was going to happen, so you should've either support MAO to the Channel, expecting to bounce (risky) or support Irish Sea to NAO and dislodge it. This has the welcome benefit of forcing England on the defensive in the north, while keeping MAO and Brest reasonably safe. Because above all else, you must not lose MAO.

Germany: C+

So much potential, and yet so little action. Please find a way to use those troops next year, or else I will cut your grades down further. You are in a great position here - potential ally to France, England and Russia. You get to choose, and on your terms! And yet, all of your armies are sitting at home. Such a waste. (Note: this is mostly fall moves I'm talking about, though in spring I'd have rather Denmark - Baltic, Holland - Kiel, Silesia - Warsaw. Much, much stronger set of moves. And better for your English ally)

You could've pulled a devious move and allowed Russia into Sweden, weakening England and prepping for a F/G, while moving to Skag or Baltic, depending upon who you wanted to attack first, Russia or England. You could've started to move in force on Warsaw, which *Russia can do nothing to stop you from taking*

But, keep the situation in the East under close eye. More than France, and certainly much more than England, this will impact you. There's a developing I/T, which has huge impacts on what Russia decides to do. You must figure out what sort of relationship with Russia is best for you, strategically. Talk this over with your TA. And look to Italian disbands as a sign of what is to come. Italy may be asking you to contribute units his way, and surely Austria too, for different reasons. Even though you have spare units, use them in a meaningful way. But do keep in mind, that bouncing France in Burgundy and allowing him in doesn't really change all that much for you. Once France loses the Channel (and maybe MAO) one of those armies will likely need to be pulled back to defend Brest anyways.

Sorry all, its late. I'll be breaking this one up into two parts again, and get the rest out tomorrow

B to the U to the M to the P
BUMP!

*Spongebob Narrator Voice* "3 days later..."

Lecture 8 (cont.)

*Spongebob Narrator Voice* "4 days later..."

Sorry all about the MIA. I'll be doing the continuation of the last lecture followed up immediately by new grades.

THE EAST

First off, let me say I think most everyone did something pretty well in the East last year. But I think its actually better for me to break out the grades into each phase.

Turkey: Spring A-, Fall C+

For the most part, I like your spring moves. Moving in force, convincingly against Italy. France is too locked up to do anything to support the Italian, and you make an ally in Austria to help speed the Italian collapse. Only, why did you move yourself out of Ionian? Ionian is the key to defeating Italy, probably one of the most important spaces for you to have in the game. A much stronger move would've been to simply hold in Ionian and allow Italy to dislodge you, retreating into Apulia, in this case. From there, you could threaten both Venice and Naples, potentially hold up his army in Tunis for another turn, and ensure that your new fleets retake Ionian in the fall. Now, Italy could potentially hold you and disband Tunis, forming a solid defensive position where you are the loser and Austria or Russia the winner.

As for the fall moves, they don't make sense, but bring some clarity to the spring treatment of Ionian. What this shows to me is that you're unsure of what direction you want to go in. You help Austria in the spring, yet don't trust him in the fall (Hint: perhaps its because of the move to Albania). Or were you intentionally trying to get Austria to turn on Italy in the Spring, only to take advantage of the situation and profit off of it? But your moves to Bulgaria and complete retreat of the fleets shows the opposite - that you don't trust Russia.

In sum, you spent this year treading water. I don't know if Italy's offer of Russian support in the spring spooked you or what, but you acted immediately as though you saw a Russian stab coming. And the fall attack on Austria was weak, and easily countered. Much better would have been Serbia moving to Budapest and compensating Russia with Bulgaria, if he really demanded it. The support hold on Serbia was also something you shouldn't have been worried about, as you had just helped out Austria the turn before, and Italy was offering Russia support into Bud.

In sum (again), you spent this year sending a lot of mixed signals, and any murkiness you may be getting in your press is a result of those mixed signals you're sending, which has led to your play being hedgy and suboptimal. Still in a strong position headed into the next year though.

Austria: Spring A, Fall C+

Good job there. Getting a build and getting back on your feet. Things looked very promising after the spring moves, with neither R nor T attacking you. However, the retreat to Tyrolia is a warning sign that Italy intends to remain hostile. Then in the fall, a quite miraculous turn of events there. You guessed right on not only the Turkish moves, but the Italian ones as well, ensuring yourself a build. However, I knocked you there because after the fall moves, you currently have *zero* allies. Italy's convoy into Venice is worrying. Turkey's moves into Constantinople and Bulgaria are worrying. Italy's disband should tell you everything you need to know about the success of your press.

Russia: Spring B+, Fall B-

So, you didn't get a center this year, but some things look better than others.I liked your spring moves a lot. You allowed Germany back into his homeland safely and put yourself into position to retake StP. Black Sea gives you a strong negotiating position over Turkey, but I only would've moved there if I informed Turkey I was doing so. A surprise move like that can jitter an ally pretty badly, depending upon the type of person they are. You can see the effects of that in the fall. Turkey did not do very pro-Russian moves in the fall. Supports can be designed to be cut, so don't take Serbia as a surefire sign that he's still your friend.Turkey is someone you should be devoting a lot of press to right now to make sure he understands that the move to Black Sea was purely for safety purposes, and not an attack on him. The Italian disband choice will again mean a lot here.

Up north, I didn't much like your fall moves either. Always, always choose to bounce England out of StP in this situation. Like...at this point I have to wonder if you and Germany are coordinating to bounce each other out of Sweden. You've missed so many opportunities here to weaken England, help France, and potentially gain a German ally.

Italy: Spring B, Fall B+

Losing Trieste was a bit of bad luck, but I liked your retreat. Tyrolia gives you many options. I bumped you up in the fall grades because clearly your diplomatic work has been successful with Turkey. An otherwise risky, dumb, rash move turned out to be a success as a result. I personally would've never been comfortable doing that convoy. Especially without support (as you would have no reason to think Turkey would turn on Austria after those spring moves. Fleet to Albania nonwithstanding...it was just to cut off the Trieste retreat). The risk that either Ionian would be dislodged or Austria would bounce you out of Venice was great. So even though this turned out well now, be wary of doing something like that again. (Granted, I have no idea how the press went down. I'm only looking at this without complete information)

Has goldie's greatness scared all the other professors away?

Lecture 9: Spring 1904

Alright, now time for some timely commentary. And oh boy, oh boy do I have some commentary.

THE WEST

England: B+

Good job with the Channel. And I suspect you might have something to do with the continued bounces in Sweden, but whether its skill or luck, I'll leave out for now.

So, you're in a strong position and now can methodically chip away at France. Be wary of how to do this successfully. This is now a tactics game for you more than anything else, but you have to keep in mind that your principal ally has gone without a build for a very long time, and Sweden still remains exposed. If you have to destroy a unit, this will severely slow down your attack, imo. And if you take too long, Italy will likely come in and poach some of your prize.

Its tough, navigating a situation like this. And that's the primary reason your grade isn't higher. The right set of moves would pave a path forward for Germany or set a definite timer on the full collapse of France. Each turn of failed moves from here on dramatically increases the risk of Germany turning on you, or Italy beating you to the punch.

Germany: C

I give this grade because I'm confused, a little. On one hand, you attack France. On the other, you do....what I suspect now is an arranged bounce with Russia in Sweden. Yet Russia and England are enemies. But you try to backfill Den with Kiel, which shows that you were trying to hold onto Sweden....yet you now move on Warsaw.

Now, I understand that I've been harping on you for inaction. But, as was probably the case with Russia last year with the move to the Black Sea, being too obfuscating as to your intentions with you moves can lead to bad results. Now I don't know what the story is with Sweden, but I am *immensely* curious as to why it is still English.

Before going into fall moves, think again about what you want the board to look like. There's a strong I/T in the south that has formed. Do you want to hasten its collapse by trying to nab Warsaw? Can you still expect the Austrian help I suspect you were hoping for with Warsaw? Can you use the situation in your south to your advantage with Russia? Can you and England finish off France before Italy turns around to join in? Is the cost in time and units worth the reward if Italy joins in the fray?

You have a strong position and a lot of potential here. Don't push units around for the sake of pushing them around. Do so with a purpose. And its tempting to just play it safe and hope for a draw, but avoid that temptation.

France: F

Now, okay, the letter grade isn't *really* reflective of your performance. Its more my annoyance that you didn't listen to the tactical advice I gave in my earlier post. England was always going to gain the channel. There was nothing you could've done about that *unless* you took my advice and moved MAO to EC with Irish support. What you also could've done is moved MAO to NAO with Irish support, forcing an awkward dislodge that you could take *tons* of advantage of. Gives you a shot at taking Liverpool with support. Or Irish can tap MAO and NAO can have a reacharound shot at taking Norwegian Sea, which might force Norway to do something other than support holding StP.

Which brings me to my other main point - you have failed spectacularly at this game, diplomatically, for the past two and a half years, *especially* regarding Russia. Russia holds the keys to your survival. A German fleet in Sweden, and England can't attack you anymore. A Russian unit in StP and England can't attack you anymore. England I can understand not winning to your side. But Germany has been mired in the mud and is now clearly trying to take Sweden. Maybe this criticism is a bit harsh. Maybe Germany's moves to Sweden has been your doing, and I'm not giving you credit. What I will say is this: the whole situation in Scandinavia represents a golden opportunity for you to work diplomatically with England, Germany and Russia. There is conflict there, and you can spin it to your advantage. If England goes down to 5 SC's, he will most likely try and hold on and recover in Scandinavia than keep going on you. That means the disband will likely be F London, which gives you a lot more breathing space than I think you realize.


THE EAST

....shall be continued later. Short story is, R/A should've seen it coming.