SoW Autumn 1905

Sorry for the late analysis, I've been both busy and lazy. That's a bad combination.

An interesting fall phase, definitely way more interesting than the spring.

England - I understand that you are wary about getting after Germany, I really do. It's a big move, it takes complete commitment, and it looks even scarier now that Austria has hit the magical 10-center point. However, you seem to have the idea in your head that you can break into the Med - which, by the way, is basically owned by the biggest power on the board, Austria - without making up any more ground anywhere else. This is a common misconception that really kills England's chances. You *need* armies on the mainland in order to expand your empire into the Mediterranean. There is really no bypassing that fact. You simply don't own enough supply centers to defend so much territory.

If your intention is to stab either Germany or Russia (which is absolutely an option), your best chance was just now. You could have gone full on rogue if you thought the risk was worth it and put a fleet in Belgium, Holland, and St. Petersburg, but that would be outrageously reckless. You would have been better off repositioning yourself around the North Sea to vie for Scandinavia and take either Belgium or Holland in the spring with your new army. Germany wouldn't be able to stop you. While you didn't make that move, the option to convoy to Holland (and maybe take Belgium) will still be there in the spring.

That said, you have a choice to make. As mentioned, Austria is at 10 centers. He stands to gain at least four more - all of Turkey plus Sevastopol - in a fairly short period of time, though your incursion on the Mediterranean may interrupt him going east. He is not a major solo threat yet, but he could be, and it might end up a bad idea to take on Germany. This is a discussion you and your TA should have.

Regardless, you need to build an army. Whether you end up attacking Germany, attacking Russia, or standing pat, you need that army. It could be used offensively against Germany or Russia or it could be used as the last unit protecting a major stalemate in the center of the board once Austria grows and tries to attack it. It is far more mobile than a sixth fleet would be. I don't see any reason to build anything else.

France - While your position is fairly irrelevant, trying to move to the Western Med was smart. Presuming that England would somehow assist Germany entering Marseilles, you could block his move forward. Unfortunately, he decided to support it, which was a wise move on his part. That doesn't take away from the fact that that was a good defensive move that, had it been successful, would have prolonged your life.

Given Austria's near-elimination of Italy, he'll be coming for Tunis at some point, as will England. Your chance of surviving is to make sure that neither of them can take Tunis from you. If they both want Tunis, neither of them can get it. If one of them decides to turn away from Tunis, it will fall, and so will you.

Italy - It's unfortunate that you are about to be eliminated, but there is still an opportunity for you to leave your mark on the game. Both England and Austria could dearly use your fleet, but the former needs it most. If you can convince England and Germany that they need your Mediterranean fleet more than they need to take Marseilles, you may survive a little bit longer, and who knows? Maybe you'll find an alley back into your homeland. I would recommend keeping the fleet and looking for a desperate way to keep the western powers out of Marseilles.

Germany - Russia's preoccupation with your homeland makes little sense to me and I know it's both annoying and frustrating that he won't leave you be, but I think you made a potentially dangerous mistake by leaving Holland unblocked. England should have attacked you this last phase - it was his best chance. Now he has another chance in the spring, and if he chooses to go for it, you can't stop it.

That said, you have an opportunity to grow that I didn't necessarily foresee. Russia is going to have to defend against Austria, and his chance of being successful is pretty slim. The odds are that he's going to go down whether you assist him or not. If you are confident that England isn't going to attack you, I would suggest setting up a convoy line to St. Petersburg. It requires you to let your guard down against England, but you already have, so that might be a risk worth taking. Once you have an army there, you can try to force your way into Scandinavia (if you want to attack England) or you could work to help Russia hold onto Moscow, which may end up becoming a critical center.

I am sure that you and your TA have discussed stalemate lines by now considering that your home centers are arguably the most important stalemate point on the board. Regardless, I'll be posting a mini lecture on stalemate points at some point in the next year or two, so keep an eye out. It will especially pertain to you as this game winds itself down.

Austria - You already received an A+ in one analysis. You won't quite get such high marks in my analysis because you wouldn't have been forced to cover Budapest had you made the proper arrangements in the spring, but your moves were definitely an improvement and without a doubt correct. You made the proper decisions this phase with almost every unit from taking Rumania to using Greece to SH Bulgaria (just in case). My only real complaint is that your fleet in Apulia ended up Naples instead of the Ionian Sea. You would have been better off there.

I posted a mini-lecture in the Study Group game thread that I encourage you to go check out. I can copy and paste it into this thread if you (or someone else) becomes a major solo threat, but as far as preparing to put yourself in the position to solo, it's a good read and it's not all that long. Plus, it provides some real game examples that you can breeze through. Maybe you can look that over together with your TA and try to come up with a long-term strategy of where you need to get and how you want to get there in order to break 18 centers.

All that said, you're only at 10. You're not there yet, so don't grow cocky. You have a lot of work to do, and moreover, Austria is, in my opinion, the easiest country to get to 17 centers with but arguably the most difficult to reach 18. The reason for this is that you have limited fleet capacity compared to other nations (like England) and generally only have one place you can go to get over the last little hump - Germany. As it turns out, the German centers are also the most difficult to invade, especially when everyone already has their eyes on you. Munich and Berlin are critical centers for Austria that, if you're going to get to 18, you need to occupy at some point, preferably sooner than later. I encourage you to look that direction while you clean up the last little crumbs and start building up your fleet capacity in the Mediterranean.

Turkey - I don't know why Russia continues to attack you, but I can't entirely fault him. I have to apply some of the blame your way because you haven't convinced him to back off. Whether or not you actually deserve that little bit of blame is something only you really know as I can't read your press. Still, you're being hindered by Russia's play and you desperately need to find a way to get him to shape up if you want to reclaim your homeland and stand a chance against the red brick wall to your west.

Russia - Your moves this year are quite disappointing. I have grown to accept your preoccupation with the German homeland, particularly because, while it's not the best use of your resources, you have undoubtedly put up an effective defense against German invasion of your homeland. The bottom line is that he can't encroach upon you, but you can't get to him either, which, in my opinion, is where the biggest flaw in your game so far shows: you haven't grown.

Your chance for growth is over, though. You're playing a new game now. Austria just took Rumania and he is about to send three armies (Rumania, Budapest, and a build in Vienna) toward you relentlessly. How do you plan to defend against this attack? For starters, I'll just say bluntly that it won't be easy. Your army in Turkey is badly positioned, which leaves a hole in Sevastopol that can realistically only be covered by the Black Sea, which would otherwise be a unit you could use to your advantage. Your army in St. Petersburg moved to Livonia, presumably fearing a German convoy, instead of Moscow, which would also allow you to cover Sevastopol. Silesia is capable of retreating and maybe even bouncing Galicia in the spring, but in the end, the big question is whether or not you can reposition your units in such a way that you can defend your homeland before Austria manages to take it. It's gonna be tough.

You still have to worry about Germany too, which is unfortunate, especially now that you are likely disbanding your fleet camped in Prussia. He isn't going to simply go away unless he is attacked by either England or Austria because your centers are just as available to him now as they are to Austria. While I discourage you from continuing to preemptively defend against a German attack, you need to remain vigilant in your press with him. Any broken strings in your relationship need to be tied up really quickly.

Some brief grades and rankings -

1.) Austria - A- - Your fall moves were excellent and for the most part made up for overly passive moves in the spring. Your press with Russia has clearly been effective as he has preoccupied himself with basically everyone but you. The question for you now is whether or not you can keep growing at this blistering pace. If you can, your first solo on our site might be in your future. If not, you might come up short.

2.) England - C+ - I am not a huge fan of the neutrality, but I understand it. You have committed yourself to growing in the Mediterranean, as you should, but you don't currently have the capacity to make that happen. If you can use this upcoming build to get yourself more builds down the line, wherever they may be, then you could very easily overtake Austria as the dominant Mediterranean power and put up a fight with him on land as well. You're still a major threat if you choose to be.

3.) Germany - B+ - Putting Russia in his place was wise. Keeping England at bay is as much a testament to your diplomatic efforts as it is his lack of ambition. Leaving Holland open, though, and failing to defend either Belgium or Holland while failing to get the support you need into Marseilles put you a fair distance behind England in terms of potential growth, plus you're going to be Austria's target at some stage.

4.) Russia - C- - You're #4, which is exactly where you were last year, but you're a lot lower on the totem pole than you were then. Your failure to defend Rumania is going to cost you, as is having an army in Smyrna instead of closer to the home front. Hopefully you will be able to outsmart Austria and keep Germany and England from attacking you in this coming phase. Doing all three of those things is critical to your survival.

5.) Turkey - B- - Tactically speaking, your moves are the only moves that truly make sense. Diplomatically speaking, you haven't found a way to get Russia out of your homeland. It's a hindrance that's hard to bear at this stage. Hopefully you can correct that problem this coming year and give yourself a fighting chance.

6.) France - N/A - There's no need to grade your year as there is little you can do. You sit in a hard-to-get center, though. Italy, unfortunately, does not.

7.) Italy - C - It was fairly inevitable, but Austria beat you. Hopefully you find a way back into your homeland down the road. If not, see what kind of lasting impact you can have on the game.

As before, I'll post a short lecture on stalemate points sooner or later (when I can). I'll probably repost the mini lecture I posted in the study group thread soon as well. Hopefully it is helpful to players and hopefully TAs can help their players understand the nuances of stalemates and solo runs that I likely missed.