S04 was pretty basic for a change. The west has strengthened and the east is finally beginning to coagulate. Ordinarily by now, one would expect to see both an eastern and western power out the door or close to it yet neither side has eliminated a player. Constant shifting has caused some distrust, particularly in the east and still in the west to some degree.
In the West:
#1 France: Initially, I had thought that France has essentially secured his position at the end of the game and should be switching from "how to draw" to "how to solo" mode with Germany at a close second. This season has changed some of that. His moves are obviously banking on a strong German ally with a retreat from the Channel and next to nothing along their shared border. This is the sort of setup that precedes a vicious stab and I firmly believe that whoever controls the Channel between E and F holds the most dominance and at this point, neither of them do. The Channel is France's gateway into German soil and a key staging point for defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see France at -1 unit at the end of this season.
#2 Germany: Although Germany's position isn't as secure as the French one, it's clear that F and G will continue to work together, meaning that Germany's next target will either be Russia or Austria/Italy, but one shouldn't rule out a French attack. Stabs are often made when one ally withdraws units from a secure position while expecting his ally to do the same under promises of continued cooperation and France has certainly done his part. The question is now going to be will Germany make the attack at London and cross the border, or maintain the alliance for a future stake elsewhere.
#3 England: Still hanging on but doing nothing. I understand that you're at the mercy of Germany, but you're not gaining much in the process. Under the wrong circumstances, you could be at 0 centers by the end of this year. Good luck.
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In the East
#1 Italy: Still the strongest country in the east, Italy stands to gain the most this season with a sure build at Venice and a possible second build coming to him. It's nice to finally see the army coming off Tunis, but I hope it's not too late since France has begun to filter armies around and Germany pushing south. If all goes well, we might be seeing an eastern power that can stand up to F or G and be a contender for a draw position at the end of the game. This season will lend strength to which of the two outcomes will take precedence.
#2 Russia: This spot was a tough one to call since there's been a lot of flip-flopping going on with allied partners. I think it was a good idea to regain the Turk as a friend and house-keeping has finally gotten to the point that Russia can begin looking for new soil, although the understandable loss of Smyrna will have to be replaced. Last, his position in the north allows for some measure of flexibility, I seriously doubt we will see the strong Russia that we saw last year.
#3 Austria: Not a very handsome position to be in, but nonetheless interesting. The loss of Vienna can be recouped but you're under way too many pressure points to be able to adequately concentrate on what to do this season. Germany pushing south, Italy pushing east and R/T working together means that there's a lot of bad news in Austrian air tonight. Certainly, he's going to be on the phone with Germany trying to convince him to stab France but if Germany doesn't bite, his only option is to push for any centers he can. In this situation, I tend to hold the belief that it can be better for you to stick your fingers into anyone's business that you can. Get units behind lines, into nooks and crannies and wherever they can cause the most damage and give you the most leverage with anyone you can.
#4 Turkey: Breathing once again! You've managed to talk your way out of the grave and stand to gain a build this season and at least one ally. Additionally, if there's a F/G, you're the only one not susceptible to its attacks and could net you a third position in a draw if you can manage to be useful enough and stick around. The biggest question you'll have to face, is what to build. Since you're crammed behind Bulgaria, an army isn't terribly helpful quite yet, but a fleet won't do you a great deal in the long run.
Things to look for:
In the West: Will there be a stab? It should be well-known to anyone who's solo'd a few times that in order to get to the magic 18, you have to cross the all-important stalemate line somewhere. For France, this has to be along Iberia and through the Mediterranean but for Germany, it's often along his southern border as well as through St Pete. Once these players have crossed their respective points and dug themselves into southern centers, the potential for a solo increases. If the two of them continue to work together, they move quickly across the line before anyone in the east can match the move but a solo will be difficult as long as they build pretty evenly. If a stab does occur, it will put one of them in the clear lead in terms of unit strength but they would have to forgo crossing the line for the moment. F04 will give the board more information to work with for the coming year and either one could see a build coming but one of them could also see a loss.
In the East:
Who's going to be the first man out? Italy could be facing the French while still working on Austria, Russia could be facing Austria and at -1 unit if things go bad, Turkey is on the upswing but still crammed in his corner and Austria is in a tight spot all around. One power should have been almost out the door by this point and if a F/G comes rolling by, it's going to wreck the east, especially under high-tension with no one able to really lay down a lot of trust for anyone else.
Doctor Who: the New or the Old orOld or Old or Old.....???
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