Okay, time for some real analysis here.

Lecture 5: Spring 1902

The theme of this lecture will be on momentum, and how successful powers use that to their advantage.

The WEST

England: C-

Your builds were okay, but in light of your spring moves, I believe A Liv would've been a smarter build. Not only does it signal greater trust in France, but it protects the exact same territories that A London does, and could have been moved to Edi to give you more convoy options.

Now, onto the strategic choices, diplomacy, and the moves. Going after Russia here is a smart choice. An easy build out of StP that Russia can't very well contest. However, allowing Germany into Sweden? And France into Belgium? Terrible mistakes. Unless, of course, the move out of Belgium was coordinated with Germany's move into Burgundy. In a land war between France and Germany, F Belgium is a bit awkward and should be exchanged for another territory, I agree. But I don't see that happening here. You can't take Holland, nor bounced Germany in Sweden, so it not like you're working with France. But you also didn't move to EC, so you're not working with Germany either. It seems to me as though you're just...treading water. This game is about momentum! That army in Norway should have been moving. You also don't seem to have an ally or enemy, from the moves. It is rapidly passing the point where that should be made clear, else you risk falling behind one of your neighbors. After last fall's phase, you had the most potential of the Western powers. Don't waste that.

Even as I say that, however, the rising risk of France looms behind you. You're lucky that Germany dove into Burgundy, because without that, it would seem as though you were about to be Sealioned. Keep up the diplomacy to ensure that doesn't happen.

Germany: D

Speaking of momentum, you have none. When you move in every direction at once, you are weak in every direction. What's the saying of Bismark? "If you defend everything, you defend nothing?" You have units moving north to take Sweden - dangerously exposed. You have a loan unit to the East...helping another nation take SC's? And even if it does take Warsaw it will be alone and dangerously exposed. More effort should have been expended to further your attack on France (though I understand you didn't expect this move to Burgundy to succeed) and to defend against the lone Russian fleet. I had warned that Russia would become desperate for a build from anywhere, and right now its looking as though it will be coming from your home SCs. Defending them will again sap your momentum.

Now, when I said I had an idea as to what your spring moves were going to be with those builds, I thought you would move to Baltic and push Kiel up into Denmark. Had this succeeded, it would've been *very* defensible, and would've set you up to force the issue of Sweden (though England seems to be giving it to you anyways).

Regardless, my summary of your moves is that they needlessly expose you to threats, weaken you by spreading out your units, and are making too many enemies out of your neighbors.

France: F

Losing Burgundy is inexcusable. Going in one year from the dominant power in the West to one that's being successfully invaded by a 7 SC Germany is inexcusable. England's moves show that he's not an enemy of yours, but also not a friend. The fleet build placement and movements are wasteful. If you were going to move north, build F Brest and maybe Germany would've sided with you. If you're still planning on moving on Italy, this spring's moves were unnecessary obfuscation. Success comes from decisive action, and what you've been giving the impression of is treading water (as far as fleets go). I'm just wondering what drove you to go north with Burgundy before you had a unit to backfill it. Germany's builds spoke that he wasn't going East. So the answer was North or West. It was a risk that I would not have taken, and you've lost Burgundy and Belgium as a result.

The EAST

Turkey: A

Every move successful. Solid allies. Other neighbors are all fighting each other. These are all good things. They speak to success on all fronts - tactics, strategy and diplomacy. I look forward to seeing what you do with this position in the fall, seeing that you're in the best position in the East. Just know that allies want builds! Don't be too greedy, because you're still small enough that you need friends.

Italy: B

So, I thought on it some more, and its not as bad as I thought before. It was reasonable to assume that Austria was going to take Greece. Heck, I would've done it. And in light of that, stranding the army in Tunis in the spring for preparation to convoy in the fall isn't too bad a thing. And it has the benefit of defending in case France decided to attack.

So the moves, by themselves, aren't bad. The strategic decision of allying with what should've been a very weak Turkey, was not a bad one. But I wonder why you did those moves knowing Austria would bounce you. You *had* to know that, considering the support he was giving. And that's what I'm knocking you for. Of course as any Italy I would've balked at the thought of an Austrian fleet in the Ionian. Much like Austria probably balked at an Italian army in Greece. Only time will tell if this alliance choice is better than an I/A would've been, but this Turkey is right now much stronger than he was just a season ago. Do be sure to demand an appropriate compensation for allowing Turkey to escape elimination (because that's what would've happened with an I/A here)

Russia: D

Its hard to evaluate you here. On one hand, England didn't move on StP. On the other, he is certainly taking it in the fall. Convince him to do so with a fleet.

The Good: Nice alliance with Turkey. It might take a little time, but you should be able to reap some rewards from this. II also like the rogue fleet in the Baltic. Very powerful. Italy is also turning on Austria, so the pressure on you might decrease significantly.

The Bad: Or, it might not. There's a chance that momentum will carry your enemies forward and eliminating you will be easier for them than letting you live. This is a distinct possibility considering the vulnerability of Warsaw, Sev and StP.

The Ugly: Man, you couldn't convince Germany to lay off you? You had the bargaining chip of Sweden that you could've used. But now you will be able to make him pay for his decision.

Time is on your side. If you can get through this season without a disband, the future is considerably brighter for you.

Austria: F

Oh man, where to begin. Enemies in all directions. All moves but one a failure. Spread out and unable to defend...well, anything. Trieste, Serbia, and Rumania could all conceivably fall in one season. You need to get to work diplomatically to see what you can do to salvage this situation. That may entail giving up a SC strategically, but the best way to get an alliance is to create winners and losers out of your enemies to sow distrust.

Choosing the wrong ally happens all the time in this game. What you have to do is look back on the press and try to see *why* Italy stabbed you. Did you ask for anything unreasonable? How were his responses? Did he give any tells? A far better line of attack, imo, would've been to try for Bulgaria and have Italy sail to Eastern Med and start convoying into Syria to take the Turkish home SC's. Because remember, Russia's fall just means a bigger Austria. It doesn't do anything for Italy. Therefore, Italy should be more heavily compensated in the fight against Turkey.

I look forward to questions and commentary on this. This is a good phase for discussion.

Just a quick comment to the professors:

Thank you for the commentaries. I'm enjoying reading them.

I would prefer that we not give flippant criticism without suggestions for improvement. In general, if a student is doing poorly, they already know they're doing poorly. Showing up and reminding them of that without providing any useful feedback isn't helpful. The point here is to teach. If you don't have time to write feedback right away, I would prefer that the grades and the commentary come out at the same time.

(This actually goes for praise too. Both praise and criticism should be precise.)

Good job hopping on that +1 bandwagon :) you're a little late though

Sometimes I stay off webdip and actually work.

Blasphemy!

bump *facepalm

Is the face palm in regard to the way the game is going or the fact that only one professor provided commentary for the last phase?

Professor Grades:

Goldie - A - excellent commentary appreciate the in depth analysis and honest reviews.
Ghug - D - You said something; which is better than nothing.
Rest - F - Just holding for an entire phase is never advised.

So, by "Rest", you mean "yoyo"?

I'm the TA for Austria. I leave you to interpret the facepalm as you may.

Ahhh, I take it those weren't ezio approved moves he made.

Students and TAs are reminded that they are not allowed to discuss the game in thread. This means no facepalms, too.

I see the moves, there is quite a bit to talk about. I should get to it within 24 hours. Phase change is at a bad time for me, so I'll typically be 18-24 hours behind.

As a reminder to students, even a phase such as this is important for Austria. Disbanding Trieste instead of retreating it could be a strong signal. Be wary of whether or not that is the signal you want to give before going into builds.

Sorry.

This is actually a pretty exciting board right now. It seems some have managed to avoid some calamity, and actually have an opportunity to push their way past the mid-game, when I thought they were certainly doomed early on. Some have perhaps fallen victim to "biggest" power syndrome and others have jumped on that. Both corners (SE and NW) have a lot to work out.

Sorry I missed giving actual grades yesterday. I'm going to talk primarily about the most recent moves, but I'll give grades for both seasons.

THE WEST:
Germany - Spring C-/Autumn B
The main concern in the Spring was overextension. Taking Burgundy was great, but it seemed almost accidental, and the moves with Russia left you very exposed for not much gain. The fall went well on the surface, as you kept all of your centers safe from the rogue fleet while gaining Belgium, but you're gonna be hard pressed for gains in the near future. Giving up Burgundy was entirely unnecessary given the English support you had. You could have gone for Paris or Marseilles or even Gascony, any of which would have been a death blow to France if successful while leaving you still in a strong position in Burgundy if not. Instead you're going to have to work to get Burgundy back. The Russian situation isn't much better. You can't crack him with one army or even two, England got his fleet stuck in St.P, and there's still a hostile fleet bouncing around near centers you'd rather not have to work to defend. E/G is the strongest combined power on the board right now in terms of centers, which is great for you, but you should be leveraging it into more.

ENGLAND - C/B
The issue with the Spring was not committing. You looked to have your pick of allies, but instead you only moved towards Scandinavia. That's wasted momentum. The fall compounds upon that, as I discussed above with Germany. Y'all are in a good position, but you could be in a great one.

FRANCE - D/D
You lost the game of musical chairs and now you're in defense mode. You're up in England's business, which is nice, and Germany left Burgundy, which is great, but you can't hold England indefinitely with two fleets, you can't hold Germany indefinitely with two armies, and you can't hold either of them once one has cracked you, so you really need to work on finding a way to break them up. Your biggest leverage here is the ability to decide who grows faster. Figure out who'd be more willing to stab after getting bigger or who'd be more paranoid about being smaller and work from there.


THE EAST:

TURKEY - A/A+
Good shit. Things didn't look great coming into the year, but you've emerged comfortably as the top power on the board. Getting Austrian support to Ionian while taking centers off of him was ruthless and wonderful, especially seeing as he's too weak to get effective vengeance now. Russia parking Bla in Sev is great for you as well, as he has to telegraph s stab and move it to build there, which makes it really likely he'll stick with you, as it's hard to stab as a small power without surprise and some forward builds. Only real worry for you right now is people being less willing to work with you because they're scared of you, but there's no way around that if you're growing, and it just means you need to put more effort into your diplomacy.

ITALY - C/C+
The Spring stab makes sense if Austria really wanted to move to ION, but it seems like he wanted to work with you, and in hindsight (as well as in the moment, really, unless the Juggernaut did a really good job of convincing you they were gonna fight) you would probably have been better off doing so than with a somewhat ineffective stab. Turkey in ION really hurts, especially when he has Russia on side. You've got a build and the means to defend yourself, and Austria being nearly dead is probably to your benefit with the relationship being as sour as it is, but you're gonna have to struggle to find an ally.

RUSSIA - D/B
It's not pretty, but you're getting back on your feet. England putting the fleet in St.P instead of the army leaves your northern front safe for the time being, and you're one of the few people on the board with an ally. The downside is that your ally has more room to grow than you do and is already bigger than you, so you're going to have to convince him that he's better off with you bigger too. Making full enough peace with Germany to pull the Warsaw army away would be great for you here.

AUSTRIA - F/F
Ouch. And then more ouch. You went from one of the stronger positions to barely relevant in one year. That's not something I see too often. I liked the idea of putting Turkey in ION. It sends a clear message that Italy isn't getting shit from you, and continuing to fight will not go well for him. Unfortunately, you overdid it, and now he's not gonna get all that much out of working with you either. It was way too early to throw in the towel and switch to revenge mode.

"Getting Austrian support to Ionian while taking centers off of him was ruthless and wonderful, especially seeing as he's too weak to get effective vengeance now." Yes. That's an ugly situation. Pretty ballsy of Turkey, and I'd love to be reading their press back and forth, both before and after.

"It was way too early to throw in the towel and switch to revenge mode." Sometimes there needs to be that slow burn.

Is there value in Italy trying to convince Austria to work with them, and is it worth Italy's energy to try to prop up the wounded Austria? In what is currently A vs ITR, Italy won't stand for long with Vie, Bud, Tri in play. It's currently to Italy's benefit that France is so focused on England/Germany.

Can professors address England's support of Germany to Belgium? I don't think it was necessary for getting the center, and it seems like the fleet or army hanging out on the island could have been put to better use.

If I were Italy, I'd certainly be making overtures to Austria. It's really hard to tell without an idea of how wrecked their relationship is.

I alluded to the English support in my commentary. I think it probably would have made more sense for the alliance to use Burgundy for something else rather than NTH, but either would have been better than what they did, which wasted valuable moves.

In reflecting on your comments, ghug, would it have been better for NTH>ECH?
Germany had the numbers. Using Burgundy to be a pest on France, as you alluded, by going to Marseilles or Gascony (probably my choice of the three you mentioned), would Holland> Belgium on the contingency/good faith that NTH>ECH been the best? That would have pushed more units on to the French regions. It would be a matter of a turn or two for those two threatening French fleets to disappear.

bump

Did the rest of the profs go into cd?

I don't know. Where did you guys go?

Sorry, I've been traveling this weekend.

So, I'll give it a whirl with the time I've got. Hopefully my thoughts come across clearly.

Lecture 6: Fall 1902
"How to Break an Alliance"

This was probably the most important phase of the game so far, as now we have solid alliances settling into shape. It is time for those players on the receiving end of these alliances to take stock of what cards they currently hold in their hands and use this to sway someone to their side. Russia has already done this successfully. What cards does a country have? Units, SC's and press.

First, units. This is the chief way of convincing someone not to attack you - offer support to somewhere else instead. Give them the means to greener pastures. Austria was actually on the right path in doing this with the support to Ionian. But, he didn't pair the rest of his moves to coordinate with what that fleet was doing. Had he not lost Serbia and Rumania, he very well could have ended up with a substantially good position as either a Turkish or Italian ally. But this is the most simple and straight-forward way to break up alliances. Offer your units to one power (but preferredly not both. They talk to each other, you know) and see if a greater gain can be had with your help than not.

Second, SC's. These are your ultimate bargaining chips. Often, you can set up defensive strategies that make it very, very difficult for one power to gain SC's and very, very easy for the other. When one partner in an alliance rapidly outgrows the other, usually you can convince the lesser power to side with you. This has two flaws though. First, the lesser power can be stupid and not see the issue going on until its too late. Second, the greater power could be really, really good at press and charm the pants off the lesser power with assurances and signs of good faith. OR, they can go out of their way to try and create parity between the two of them through SC swaps. There's not much you can do to counter this, frankly, so I would suggest you always make sure that the *better* press player is getting shafted. Often, they will reach out to both you and their ally, and this presents an opportunity. Even if it fails, the benefit to you is that it slows down the alliance against you, and creates some means of discord. Buying time for the other side of the board to solidify and help you out is the only thing you can do.

Finally, press. Miracles do exist. Sometimes you can just talk an alliance apart. Maybe there was some misunderstanding that led to the initial stab. Maybe there's a way to work out your differences. ~Orrrr~ maybe you could lie your pants off and convince one that they're about to be turned on by their ally. This is why you don't lie in 1901. This is why building trust in the early years is extremely important, so you have that diplomatic capital necessary to help sell the lie. The potential avenues you can take in convincing someone not to attack you are endless, and really up to a personal style preference.

Now, enough yammering by me. On to the grades.

THE WEST

England: B+

Solid moves. The swap of Belgium for Sweden made sense, and turned out nicely for you. StP doesn't appear to be threatened, nor will Sweden come under serious threat. France has fleets, but isn't set to convoy in anything. So, defensively you're fine. As for setting yourself up for a 7th unit, well...you could've done better.

As was pointed out already, Germany had enough units to take Belgium on his own. No other fleets were threatening the North Sea. I don't see any reason why you wouldn't move to the Channel and Wales to start setting up for a convoy. Heck, even to the Channel to prevent the possibility of France moving there would've been smart. An army in Wales could've perfectly protected your home island by bouncing NAO in Liverpool. But now you have guesswork to make. You're in fairly good shape, but its not near worthy of an A.\

Germany: B-

Burgundy. Why on earth would you take it with Burgundy. Tap Picardy with Burgundy and you get the guarantee of Belgium and either a disband or a fun retreat into an open SC. Or heck, even try for an open SC and end the fight right there! The one positive I will mention about that situation is that it opens up the possibility for reconciliation between you and France. I'm not saying whether or not that would be a good thing for you, but I will say that its more likely that you'd make up without the army in Bur than with it.

More bad news is that the Russian fleet is still not dealt with, and Warsaw remains purple. One was unavoidable, the other was not. In his moves, Russia forced you into a choice between Warsaw and Berlin. I believe you made the right choice for you, but perhaps your unwillingness to support him into Warsaw caused Austria to panic and offer to throw in the kitchen towel. Keep in mind that even small decisions like that have enormous ramifications for other powers.

So, you end the year at war with France, but in no position to advance on him. At war with Russia, with no allies to help you and a Russian fleet pinging your home SC's, and completely wide open to an English stab in Denmark. Maybe I should lower the grade a bit more...but do be mindful of what impacts each of these things will have on *other* players' decision making. Will England succumb to temptation? Will Russia see you as their only outlet for builds? Only time will tell.

France: C

The East isn't looking too good for ya, you don't have any allies in the West, and are about to be overwhelmed by someone. The good news is, that you can pick who that someone is, thanks to England's slow movement and Germany's befuddling move from Bur to Belgium.

With an army build, you can keep the Germans out forever. With a fleet build (or A Brest), you can keep England scrambling to defend while Germany rolls into Burgundy and onward by force. This is one of many ways in which you can disrupt their dynamic. Keep thinking of other ways with your TA! Your build shows a *lot* about what decision you have made.

THE EAST

Unfortunately, tiredness has caught up to me. I'll get to you lovely people tomorrow. Two things to note though.

1) Austria's disband instead of retreat means something. Consider what that is.

2) Russia's moves to Sev and Rum also mean something, most likely. Take that into account too.

(Oh, and France in general I liked your moves. Risky, but more potential of being worth it)

I haven't looked at a School of War before: fascinating and very useful. Thanks to everyone involved.

Regarding Austria, if Turkey hadn't stabbed for Serbia, then Trieste would have held (kudos to Turkey.) But I can't understand the retreat to Vienna and Budapest. Rumania to Sevastapol would have guaranteed not losing a centre, and a discussion with Germany about Warsaw would have tied up the Russian army in Ukraine, or, given the moves Russia actually made, caused Warsaw to be taken. Even with the loss of Trieste, the situation would then not have been irretrievable.

Has Austria really thrown in the towel so early on? Austria's position in Spring 2017 didn't look too bad.

One more question, what is this "star" business?

Once you post in a thread, it will have a star in front of it (as this one does for you now). Makes it easier to find and perhaps you could even turn on notifications for it.

So, now for the rest of my analysis.

THE EAST

Turkey: A+

Job well done. That is the textbook definition of a good stab. Austria helped you into Ionian, and now he's no longer worth anything to you, nor is he a real threat. Russia is back in port, and has an army (potentially two) to help out and possibly see some gains himself. You kept Italy onboard to keep attacking Austria - which is by far the most important thing of all to do, as it estranged those two even further.

You are in solid shape, and poised to take over the East. It is time to start thinking about the board beyond your immediate neighbors. Start thinking:
"How long will it take to defeat Italy?"
"What will the rest of the board look like by then?"

And most importantly...

"What is my path to 18 from here?"

Think about what alliances you should keep, what your next stab will be (and when). How possible is it to keep I/A at each other's throats? At what point will the West react to you and change their strategy? How does that affect the you? Your allies? You have now entered the mid-game and it's time to start thinking about this. The early game essentially decides who will be the players and who the fodder. Now it's time to decide "who has a shot at a solo" vs "Who must stop others from soloing"

Austria offered a pretty good A/T to you and you turned it down. I have very high expectations of you as a result of your decision to essentially go it alone.


Russia: B+

Job well done there. You did the moves I expected, and did a wonderful job in accepting Austria's overtures for peace. But you did get lucky, and allow me to explain why.

Rumania was a gift. In no scenario should Austria have lost it. Now, if Austria gave it to you willingly, that's one thing (good on you). If you were not expecting it, then I would be slightly concerned that your relationship with Turkey remains a bit too imbalanced. But from my point of view, last year was a toss-up. A more ambitious Austria would've asked for German support to Warsaw (or even supported Germany there) and hit Sev, giving you a disband and all but eliminating you. Had Austria's diplomacy with Turkey worked, he'd be sitting strong at 5SC's still, with a very potent A/T running. In that case, you'd be dead.

But you're not. It turned out wonderfully for you. England took StP with a fleet, Austria allowed your Rum, and Germany isn't much a bother.

It could be better though. If you knew that Austria was moving away, you reasonably could have known Germany wouldn't go after you as a result. In that case I would've tapped Sweden and moved Warsaw either north or south. See, with Germany it is possible for him to be your long term friend. But not England. Not with him in StP. Since it is just a fleet, it shouldn't be a priority to deal with, but you must keep in mind long term that a strong England is not good for you. A tap in Sweden would've made him much, much more vulnerable to French attack,, and even given you negotiating a space to encourage a late Sealion. If you have any hope of getting a solo or at least being board leader, you must build more northern fleets.

I'm not saying bum-rush it now. There are safer prospects to the south, should that be your route (since that's where the current danger is) but you will need to do something with that Baltic fleet other than ensuring a German army remains in Silesia threatening Warsaw.

What I read of your moves (especially the covering of Sev) is that Austria reached out to you with a peace offering, but you didn't quite trust him to follow through. The choice of Sev with the fleet over the army is pro-Turkish, but does not necessarily have to mean that. Yes, an army in Armenia is more deadly to the Turk than a fleet in Black Sea, but it's still possible for you to go either way this year, barring a Turkish fleet build in Con that bounces you in Black. But such a thing would drastically sap Turkish momentum.

Austria: C-

Well, you gave it a go, even though it was a wrong decision. I'm sure Germany forced your hand with Russia by insisting on going to Berlin instead of going for Warsaw. But even if you were making peace with Russia, there was no need to cede Rumania. Even Russia didn't fully believe it, by my reading. Different choices regarding Russia may have made things different. Had you straight up told Turkey "England is taking StP with an army and Germany is supporting me into Warsaw while I'm tapping Sev" would Turkey have made the same choice? I bet not. He made his decision to take on both you and Italy because he has a security blanket to the north. If he was indeed the impression that Russia was a dead man walking, I think a more conservative moveset would be ordered. Not only because you'd be sitting at 4SC's right now instead of two, but because his ally would be down to 3, with the guaranteed loss of the rest of his home SC's the next year. That would have made an A/T offer much more palatable.

Now, given Italy's moves, I don't really blame you for choosing Turkey over Italy. But the fact remains that you needlessly left yourself open. Let's say you didn't want to fight Russia. You wanted to be friends. There was still no reason to give him Rumania, and no reason to not move Rum to Bulgaria as a precaution. Even with an A/T, I wouldn't object to that, since the army wasn't doing anything that turn anyways!

Looking forward, you still have options. Keep up the press with Russia, as I said before, while the moves appear pro-Turkish, they don't have to be. From your disband, I see you and Italy have reached an agreement. Keep it up and you will most likely get some territory back. Turkey only has 4 units on the front line right now, so Spring moves are very important.

Italy: D

What were those moves. You have an army still stranded in Tunis, moved to Ionian with no support despite two hostile fleets bordering it (and yes, you should've known Turkey is hostile. An I/T is the most unstable alliance on the board. Never believe one) and attacked and Austria that was holding Russia in check. Congrats on breathing life into what was a dead and neutered Jugg. Man, had you and Austria stuck with it the whole time, Turkey and Russia would be 6 feet under right now. And here we are with the reverse about to happen.

There is a small window of opportunity for you here. You will be able to stabilize, and most likely take back Ionian (because believe me, you need it back). But it will be messy. You frankly don't have the units to make it clean. Not in the right places, anyways.

No, for you to stabilize this long-term, you need to keep Austria alive and, most likely, win Russia to your side. There's a chance, albeit a small one, that pure tactics can defeat the Jugg right now, but it will be tough and long