England needs to be careful, a very strong France can pose a threat. I can't see France being a willing partner to a bounce in Germany. I'm flying blind in that I know nothing about the Diplomacy that's going on. England could encourage Germany to bounce Russia in Sweden, put his army in Norway and go for Belgium & bouncing France.. With a plan of getting Sweden himself, with Germany's help in exchange for helping Germany get Belgium in 02... This would limit France's growth to two sc's, keep Germany & France balanced in strength, and make them fight each other for Belgium
England has something to offer Germany, not contesting Holland and can make certain requests ..bounce Russia in Sweden, and build two armies and no new fleet..in exchange for helping Germany in 02 to get Belgium
But it commits England to having an unhappy France, and the possibility of having to defend against a French attack

An army on the continent is much more likely to be useful than an army in Norway. If England is getting Belgium, that would be a fine reason not to convoy into Scandinavia.

I disagree. If England puts an army in Belgium, then the thing that France and Germany can agree on is that they don't want the army there.

Scandinavia is better (if it will work) because it gives more potential allies something to definitely work with, rather than something that is a risk.

In this case, if England wants to go anti French, I think the army in Norway is better, as the fleet in Norwegian can move to NAO next phase- as long as this does not upset the Russian.

If England wants to go anti German, then bouncing Holland is a strong move, because Germany won't be able to build in kiel.

Of course, all bets are off if France offers Belgium to England.

Hence the "If England is getting Belgium". The point about bouncing Holland instead is well-taken though.

Okay, okay. Time for me to finally submit my grades. I will try, when possible, to be reflective rather than suggestive. At least for this fall phase. The key for each player to remember now is to keep talking to everyone on the board! Make sure you understand what they're thinking about heading into this phase. Understand their concerns and use that to your diplomatic advantage!


Lecture 3: Spring, 1901

I'll split it down by region as ghug did above. First off: The East!

THE EAST

Turkey: A

I love Turkey opening to Armenia. I do it all the time as Turkey because it is a surefire way to get Austria to your side, which I believe is essential for a quick Turkish start. You have forced Russia into a tough corner here. Does he hold Sev? Move to Rum? Move to Black Sea? With the right guesses, you could either be in Sev, or be in the Black Sea in the fall. Either way, you are poised for a strong, strong position heading into the builds. Good job.

Austria: B+

ghug may not like hedgehogs, but I sure do. You're in a prime position this fall to potentially nab Rumania! But, there's also the downside to this: moving to Galicia after what I presume was a DMZ agreement must have really pissed Russia off. As I said in my prior lecture, try not to do anything that will unduly alienate one of your neighbors, and I believe you might have just done so.

Italy: B

Ho hum, not much to say here. Solid, safe start by you. The only interesting thing is whether you decide to try for Greece or not. Do work on your Turkish relations, because it is most likely that he will determine whether or not you get it, should you choose to go there. Tunis is the safer path. I wonder which you will choose?

Russia: D

Yikes. Yikes yikes yikes. Failures on all fronts. The failed DMZ in Galicia. The Turkish move to Armenia. the German move to Denmark. England setting up a potential convoy into Norway. You have a lot of work to do this coming phase, because clearly something didn't click diplomatically in your messages. You must work with each of your neighbors; find a way to secure at least one build. Two, preferably. But you need to stabilize this phase. There are plenty of opportunities for you to turn these moves into potential alliances. Germany needs you right now, as could England. There is room for Austria and Turkey to include you yet. As I said, spring moves are not the most important! Fall 1901 and Spring 1902 are! Now is your time to shine. Talk to your TA, use some creativity, and get on the press.

THE WEST

France: A

Good job there France. Secured an advantageous bounce, easy path to 3 builds, and a good friendly opening from all your neighbors. What you must be wary of is the "Early SC leader" problem. If you are successful in going +3 this year, you must work hard, hard, hard on the diplomatic channels to keep allies on your side, because they will be tempted to turn on the board leader. Sometimes the threat of that necessitates foregoing a build, but the ultimate call is to you and your TA. Don't relax, because you cannot afford to!

England: B+

Solid opening there. No France in the channel is always good. Germany not threatening the low countries too much yet. There is space for you to grow on multiple fronts, and you have the flexibility to take advantage of that. Fleet vs Army in Norway is a big decision for you to make, and will ultimately have many ramifications for your relationships with multiple powers, not just Russia. To me, an army in Norway is a sign that you want to take Scandinavia. Russia should never be happy with it, and its not necessarily a pro-German moves either. It does free up F Nwg Sea to do other things next spring, but I think its a bit of a waste to provoke Russia and then sail away to the West to provoke a strong France and end up in an inevitable stalemate, as France will control MAO without a doubt (and will most likely build a fleet *somewhere* Think long and hard about your options with that army. There's 5 or so options that all have vastly different ramifications to them, and I'm very interested in what you choose.

Germany: C

That didn't go terribly, but didn't go well either. F Denmark gives you some negotiating leverage with England (leverage over Russia is useless, considering the Russian position) that you can use, but you have little else. You just need to pray that England doesn't bounce you out of Holland, and think of something inventive to do with Munich. There's a few options for you here - one of which I am *extremely* tempted to see, but in reality I don't know how much good it would do. But you have a bit of hard work to do yourself. Your goal should be securing that second build and leveraging another power onto your side.

No complaints about Tri-Ven?

Gold loves hedgehogs for some reason. This is basically the best case scenario for one, so the position is still decent, but that doesn't make it good.

I don't see anything wrong with Tri-Ven if something in the course of communications made Austria think Italy could turn on him. Could be that Austria has cause to not contest Greece.

I agree with ATC..England should convoy his army to Norway and use Belgium as a pawn for France and Germany to fight over, like ATC says, an English army in Belgium gives France and Germany something that unites them, they can start trading on the basis of who gets Belgium.
An army in Norway sets up the classic English strategy of capturing St Petersburg, Sweden & Denmark

So, I really don't like the Holland idea. If I'm France in that situation, I've got three builds, and I don't see much incentive to work with England, and pissing both Germany and Russia off is a great way to get yourself tied up in Scandinavia.

If you really trust France, it does get you guys a really strong start on Germany, but even then, France is better positioned to reap immediate benefits.

If England bounces Germany in holland, they're communicating that they're happy to make concrete moves towards a common goal. France could throw that back in their face and go for the easy gains, but I tend to keep allies who are prepared to make strong moves together.

An EF has a lot more momentum than a FG at that point.

You are of course right that it's great for France.

I would almost be more inclined to convoy into Holland though than put a fleet in. No need to unecessarily burn bridges with Russia. This is, of course, presuming an eventual EF, and not a EG, which is certainly also possible

Spring 1901

France: Solid A. The bounce in Burgundy gives you leverage over Belgium, and at the same time allows you to take both Spain and Portugal in the first year, which is excellent. France is a strong country to play as, but sometimes, you’re unable to maximize your position because you’re stuck having to keep a unit in the far west to clean up iberia because you didn’t take it in the first year.

England: B. There really aren’t a lot of ways to mess up opening as England, so these moves aren’t particularly impressive. You have the option to convoy using Norwegian Sea, which is nice, but was is really worth the risk of France opening to the Channel and having to guess whether they would try for London or north sea? Even without the risk, you’re also tipping the board off to a WT.

Germany: C. Meh. I Love playing as germany because you can hold a piece of effectively all of the bargaining chips in the North because of your access to Belgium and Sweden. The bounce in Burgundy not only kept you out of the conversation for Belgium, but now you’ve given England the Bargaining chip of Holland. You’ve lost one of the only advantages that keeps you from being about as difficult a country to play as Austria is, essentially putting yourself in a situation to be bullied by EF this year. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but you better pray for a WT.

Italy: B. Boring moves. Not much to say about that. The Austrian move to Venice shows a telling amount of distrust of you. You’d best talk that out with Austria, because the entire board saw that and your enemies can use that against you to sow more seeds of distrust.

Russia:D- .The only moves I can think of that could make those moves more disadvantageous for you is if you accidentally bounced yourself in Ukraine. Perhaps it’s a ploy to plead for Sweden in order to keep the East balanced? If you were going to rely on a DMZ in Galicia, you should have done something better with Warsaw. Leaving it there does effectively nothing, since it’s just as easy to move back if Austria decided to break the DMZ. Or perhaps you meant to put in an order and forgot to get back to it. Regardless of what happened, I hope you’re a grade A diplomat, because you’re likely looking at a 0 build 1st year.

Turkey: B+ Play to your defensive advantages and keep Russia out of Black Sea and Armenia. I like it. You also have the option of potentially working with either A or I given Russia’s current situation, or help Russia out of their rut if you don’t trust that either would be will to break away from the Lepanto. I’ll leave you room to decide for yourself but I believe there is a right answer here.

Austria: C+. Hedgehog? *pukes* Austria is an aggressive country, so not taking advantage of that works very much against you. You can’t turtle up like Turkey can. If Italy, Russia, and Turkey wanted to gang on you, they would have done so, and no amount of defense would prevent that. Austria should be looking to secure builds, not protect their position, because Austria doesn’t have a very defensible position. If you gained Greece, but lost Trieste, that’s effectively the same as keeping Trieste, unless you had plans on building fleets.in the next couple of years. You’re not in a terrible position, so you’ve earned a passing grade.

Bump for commentary on fall moves?

I saw them. Just haven't had time yet. Should post in a few hours

I'm liking the commentary. I saw the most recent moves earlier, so the insight is nice.

Lecture 4: Fall 1901

Now, I've thought for a long time on these grades, as its a bit tough to say who is better or worse off due to their efforts. There were some successes on the board and some failures, for almost every power. So what may follow may be a bit controversial.

THE WEST

Germany: B+

Of all the powers in the West, I feel that you came out the best from this fall's moves. The emergence of the Western Triple got you out of what otherwise would've been a very tight situation, with a strong France and England on your borders, with a Russia too weak to help. But you secured yourself two builds, brought yourself to parity with the rest of the powers, and have another center or two within reasonable reach. Overall, well done, but keep up on that diplomacy. There are many powers who will be trying to encourage your neighbors to turn on you, and typically Germany doesn't do well in the long run of a WT - simply because England runs out of places to grow.

England: B+

I feel like you should also get some props here. You had a variety of different ways you could've gone that turn, and you did choose one that safely got you Belgium while making no enemies in the process and giving yourself some easy. Germany is just receiving the same grade as you because it is my opinion that he dug himself out of quite a hole last turn. You have a bunch of safe options for the next year or two, and should see some builds going into 1903.

France: C+

I don't think the WT was the right choice for you at all. but you know what? Prove me wrong. I thought that you had the ripe opportunity to run through Germany with the help of England, but perhaps Italy won't be able to lock up the Med in time or you'll receive help from a member in the East. Just know that of the Western powers, France has the hardest time making quick headway in a WT. Especially on a board like this where Russia has no builds and Italy convoyed over to Tunis. Your diplomacy should've give you the information to know roughly what this board was going to look like. So, best of luck moving forward, but I think your strategic decision has made this game unnecessarily difficult.

The EAST

Austria: B+

Well, in several ways your moves were good. Rum and Trieste were both gambles that paid off for you. I'm not quite so sure as to what alliance you formed where Trieste moving wouldn't be a red signal, but it can at least be put to use moving forward. But, in a world where the WT didn't exist, I think only Russia would like that move. Anyways, the moves are good because it is very rare that the WT survives past two powers dying. Most often, this is Italy and Russia. By crippling Russia, you're accelerating the WT. Whether this will make it come apart quicker or hold it together stronger is something I can only guess at. But you can utilize this situation to your advantage! German troops may or may not be pouring your way, but they can easily be stopped. Russia will desperately be looking for a friend, or looking to secure a more southerly position so once his home SC's are gone he isn't out of the game. Turkey will be looking to get stronger in his corner, but he is very vulnerable at the moment. All things to consider.

Italy: B-

Fair year for you. You're only being knocked for not convincing France out of the WT. This is something your press should've sniffed at. You do this by getting stories from each of the powers and corroborating them. Is France saying England will tap Holland while England is saying France is supporting him into Belgium? Little details like that show that one of these powers is lying to you, and from there you try and find out the reason. Still, I approve of the decisions to not attack Austria and to convoy the army. You should be able to set up an excellent, very difficult to penetrate, defense going into next year. Though you may need a tad bit of Austrian help. But your play is to hold France off long enough for the WT to start breaking down. Above all else, keep talking with France every turn! When the time comes, you want him to be able to trust you not to pursue him when he disengages.

Turkey: C+

I dislike people who don't follow through on their moves. It goes back to what I said in Lecture 2, I believe. Each move is an investment. And you essentially wasted your first year. F Con and A Ank is not a strong position to be in. Moreover, you've stranded an army in Greece without support where it can be force disbanded fairly easily, and Bulgaria is no guarantee for you next year. Had you moved into Sev and remained in Bulgaria - or even done just one of those moves - I think you would've been a power to fear in the corner. But right now all the Eastern powers are surely looking your way and wondering how many units they can spare for your elimination. A lot of diplomacy will be needed to assuage the majority of their fears, and you must be razor-focused on a single target (or appearing as un-threatening as possible and letting them put their soldiers on the front lines while you hold back....though I dislike this strategy). Either way, you have work to do.

Russia: D

Well, you got a minor victory with Turkey moving away from you, but suffered defeats everywhere else. Don't get me wrong, getting a friend in Turkey was huge for you last year, but it was overshadowed by losing battles with Austria, Germany and England that you could have won. Germany, especially, I think you should've been able to convince not to WT with you. Simply because EF looked so strong heading into the fall phase.

Austria into Rum should've at least been blocked. The move to Black Sea doesn't make sense either, because if you had Turkey as an ally, I don't see the need to open up Sev, unless you planned on turning on him? In which case, more poor diplomacy - allowing Austria to play you. Had you bounced Austria and kept him to a single build, I think your position would be significantly better. Austria would have to commit everything West, whereas now he can probably safely have half his forces in the east.

England was the least likely battle for you to win, diplomatically. I frankly had him convoying to Norway with like a 60% probability.

But you have a bit of work to do. StP might be able to be held for another season, depending upon English builds, but I don't believe its possible to hold both it and Warsaw. Your moves will have to be chosen very delicately here. See if you can avoid a disband this year. But choose your battles. Its not just "Oh, I'm losing" *How* you lose, and *how* your centers are lost can have a huge impact on your chances of living. Seek to create power imbalances and artificial logjams in the alliances that oppose you. That is the best way to break them apart. And always, always, mind your back. In any situation you are in, your ally will have less to lose by attacking you than you think they do in your internal evaluation of the situation.

I agree with Professor Goldfinger's comments about those Autumn moves, with one exception, I'd be even more critical of Turkey's moves..he could have captured Sevastapol and held Bulgaria.. Two builds and real strength...instead he's conceded the Black Sea ? and it has one new sc that he could have real difficulty in holding. I think Italy has real diplomatic power in this new, unexpected situation, I'll be interested to see how Italy performs.
( and England )

Yeah, the moves to Black Sea and Greece suggest that, while R/T may not be at each other's throats right now, they certainly aren't working together efficiently. If Russia was honest about their moves, ordering to Serbia made much more sense for Greece.

Honestly, it looks like neither one of them were really sure who they wanted to work with, but their decision may have been made for them now.

I do think R/T will be in tight now. It seems as though Russia managed to plead some help from Turkey, which is good on their part. Do you think they're forced to work together now? I think the C+ grade was a bit generous. Turkey doesn't have time to flip-flop like this. This could really upset the balance of power on that side of the map.

The fact is though that even though Italy does have power, it's only for one, maybe two, turns before he has to devote everything west. I graded Turkey as high as I did because of all the Eastern powers, he benefits most from the WT. He can afford to do sub-par moves, because mistakes are less deadly to him

So the grades are for position and potential, rather than the last turn's moves?

I think that its a mix of both, for me. If its a 3 SC power in 1904 that perfectly counters their opponents attacks, I'm going to give them a decent grade for it, like a B+. But its not an A. An A would be convincing their attacker to leave them be. When I grade, I keep in mind what must have gone down diplomatically, look at what strategy they are pursuing, and look at the tactics of the board and their physical unit movements.

I'll get to I think it's pretty naive to assume a western triple here. Obviously you have to behave fearing the worst as an eastern power, but there's really nothing to say that this isn't an EF or an EG that isn't apparent yet.

THE WEST:

ENGLAND - A+
Great work. Two builds as England is abnormal without being scary, you're well positioned to put the pain on Russia, and if there's not a WT, you have your choice of allies. If there is a WT, you're probably also the best off for the time being, as you'll be the only one with fleets around, making you pretty hard to stab. You should use this opportunity to stab someone yourself, because Western Triples are fucking stupid unless you've just really been craving a large, early draw.

GERMANY - B-
Ehhh, you got Holland, but I think bouncing Holland was a shitty move anyway, and England negotiated himself Belgium instead, so it's not like that's some great victory on your part. Committing to Russia could actually work if there isn't a WT, as you're much more valuable to your pink friend in the driver's seat than France is because you can commit on both fronts. A long term WT is bad for you though, because a) they're fucking gross and b) you're in the middle, which is an excellent place from which to get consumed.

FRANCE - C-
Way to blow a good position. Burgundy's nice if you want to attack Germany, but it's much more likely EG will want to attack you, so really it's just defensive. You're not gonna get anywhere against Italy with a WT, and you're the least poised to do damage to your other neighbors now, so you may very well be on the outside looking in. Make yourself more appealing.

THE EAST:

AUSTRIA - B+
Not bad. Bet you wish you'd done something less dumb with your fleet in the Spring, but you can recover from one mistake. Seems like Italy is friendly and will want to stay that way, you're primed to take all the Balkans for yourself, and any WT is likely to break up due to being a shitty alliance before it gets to you. If you can convince Russia to get Gal away to defend himself, you're pretty much a lock to make it farther than a couple others here. That depends as much on what's happening in the west as on how great you are at flirting with him, so make sure not to neglect either half of that job.

ITALY - B
If there's actually a WT, you're gonna be doing a whole lot of nothing for a while, but that'd be France's fault, not yours. You've got the world's most incompetent maybe-RT on your hands, so it's in your best interests to be able to work to take advantage of that and grow rather than deal with some people being dumb, so you probably want to ensure no triple more than anyone else does.

RUSSIA - D
Convincing Turkey to suck was nice, but you're buuldless and EG are out to get you, so it's not nearly enough. I can't be sure exactly which way the board will go in the immediate future without reading the press, but none of the seemingly likely outcomes look good for you. You need to dramatically rewrite the status quo if you want to get out of this in one piece.

TURKEY - F
I'm partial to Turks right now, so you had to really fuck this one up to get an F grade. Nonetheless, here we are. You went from a good looking AT and a chance to really fuck Russia up to what? A Russian fleet in Bla as he stands poised to lose a lot of other shit. No momentum anywhere. An army in Greece that can't be held. No assurances of Bulgaria. Terrible, terrible turn for you. You better hope that there's a WT and Austria decides it's urgent to fight back.

Aren't all Western Triples (barring an imminent Juggernaut threat) just E/Fs or E/Gs that aren't apparent yet?

Sometimes they actually think they can triple. It's silly.

England: A+. Belgium stronk! Nice job negotiating. 2 builds are about the best you can hope for with England. In addition, you’ve got an army on Norway with a crippled Russia. Nice moves, nice negotiating, nice position. Textbook A+

France: B-. Hey look, you don’t have 3 builds, but you’ve got all of Iberia in the 1st year, so now you can focus on pushing towards wherever you’d like to pursue. You’ve got Burgundy protected, would have been a huge problem if Germany decided to go for it, but it's still sub optimal, and likely only pissed Germany off.

Germany: B You’ve basically had no choice in the moves you made. You had to bounce Sweden from Russia, and try for Holland. Being forced into a WT as Germany is pretty lame, but that’s what happens when you play into France’s hands in the Spring of 01. However forced your moves was, what *was* impressive is that you (along with England) stripped France of their excellent position. Having France in Belgium with 3 builds means that there's another army going into burgundy, and that just makes an attack that much more likely. Of course a English unit in Belgium with a french on in Burgundy is only marginally better, but if it were you that sowed the seeds that Belgium should be British land, they'll certainly thank you for that.

Russia: F. It’s hard not to judge you based on your spring moves, but you haven’t really made much improvement in your play. Lets assume you’ve talked to both Austria and Turkey in regards to helping you out of your position. If you had reason to believe that Austria would help you, you should have just given them Rumania, attempted to move to Black Sea, and moved Ukraine to Sevastopol. If you were going to work things out with Turkey, you should have bounced Austria in Rumania. Now you’re in a mess, Control over Black Sea when Turkey decided to help you out, an exposed Sevastopol, and an open Warsaw.

Austria: A. Only because this batshit crazy plan actually worked. This is either extreme luck that Russia and Turkey played this turn horrifically against their own self interest, or you’re doing an excellent job diplomatically. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt, but consider whether something like this would happen again.

Italy: C-. I think I noted before that you were playing unbelievably boringly. I stand by that statement. You should have spotted a WT, regardless of whether or not there is one, and asked Austria for Trieste. With them able to bounce Russia out of Rumania, and Turkey opening against Russia, they didn’t need the build right away, and a WT would put a major damper on the lepanto. You would have needed the extra fleet. In fact, if they said no, you could have just attempted to take it anyway and talked it because it’s not like they’d be mad at you for life. They have bigger problems to solve, even moreso now because the the Jug is back? I think? Anyway, your generic moves are going to cost you down the line, even if there isn’t a WT, because you’re going to have to adapt to what develops on the board.

Turkey: D. Wrong choice. Turkey’s main objective in the early game is to get out their corner as fast as possible. Not only did you decide to break the momentum you had against Russia, but you also decided to work with a partner that can’t really help you, save supporting you into bulgaria, after that, you’re on your own. Also now they have Black Sea, which means the 0 build Russia now has the upperhand over you. Had you taken Sevastopol, you would have had the opportunity to work with Austria or Italy, and it’s not like they’d just follow through with a normal lepanto with a WT brewing. Now you’re stuck with not a lot of good options. You could work with Russia next year, and have Greece stripped from you, which a chance of losing Bulgaria as well. You could work with Austria and be harrassed by Russia in the north. Not to mention the small possibility that Russia and Austria work out some sort of deal to mash you into Tuesday’s potato casserole.