Look up the University of Colorado study that predicts the electoral college based upon individual state economies. It is an accurate model built to predict outcomes accurately back to 1980...and shows pretty much a Romney trouncing of Obama.

My primary hope is Romney's jobs rhetoric gets thorugh to people here. He needs to pull a Clinton and say "It's about jobs, stupid!" to the President and his crew. This whole distraction of "I had to make them go find me women cause I wanted an equal opportunity cabinet" bullshit is just that. More people, nay, more *women* even, are out of work now than when Obama started.

And playing up the whole "he only paid 14% in taxes" is bogus. He paid 14% on capital gains. That's the law and that is how it should be. Capital gains come with risk. If someone is going to have to pay 35% on capital gains, they'd just as soon stuff the money in a mattress than risk investing in our economy. the person who makes 50K a year has *zero* financial risk. He gets paid. Period. If he works the hours, the law protects him such that he *must* get paid. But those who invest don't have any guarantees other than the law protecting them from false reports upon which their investment research is based. But predicting the future is not an exact science so if they manage to make money, they should get to keep a larger chunk of it. And the fact is, 14% of 20 million is still 2.8 million, or 56 times what the 50K employee *grossed* and over 200 times what the 50k employee paid in taxes. So, he still paid a total amount equivalent to 200 folks who made 50k a year.

And to clarify, I'm not a 1%er. I'm a high 5 figure (6 with bonuses) working stiff. I have zero capital gains right now because all my investments are in retirement accounts, and much of that is in Roth IRAs that had the taxes paid before investing. So I will owe the 14% when I retire and withdraw from the traditional IRAs and pay nothing on the Roth IRAs. That is how it should be. But right now I pay near the top of the tax scale for income tax and I still feel this way.

Draug - right on, brother! Romney *is* out campaigning on "It's the jobs, stupid" and Obama is talking about everything BUT the real issues....Big Bird ads on TV from the president, for god's sake, is pathetic. ESPECIALLY since Big Bird generates more money in capitalistic revenue than many countries in this world!...but the problem is ABC/NBC/CBS/MSNBC/Comedy Central/CNN won't actually cover what Romney says seriously, but they *do* act like Big Bird is a real issue...so when the media is so blatantly biased, is requires citizens to do research on their own...and most citizens are hardly worthy of the title and don't vote based upon facts...even Saturday Night live is now mocking the "low information voter" and Obama this time around.

The Question, Draugnar - do you want to make more? And if and when you make more, do you think you should be penalized with a higher % tax burden just for being successful?

And the ancillary question: Shouldn't the lowest earners also pay *something* so that they have "skin in the game", so that when their Democrat representative wants to donate millions of dollars to study pig farts they might decide to elect someone more fiscally conservative? That's part of the problem - people with no real tax burden don't give a shit how taxes are spent...just like kids waling through a grocery store or in a restaurant telling mom and dad to buy the most expensive shit - because they don't know and don't care what the impact is. Yes...I said it...the electorate is like a bunch of ignorant children. funny...just like Romney compared Obama to an ignorant child in debate #1, which was comedy *gold*!

Romney is on a bounce from the first debate. Bounces wear off, we will soon end up at some midground between before the first debate and now. I will document it when I get home, but I will just go with a snapshot of fivethirtyeight right now.

What pisses me off is he late night goofs like Letterman - he keeps taunting Romney to come on his show. Like I would volunteer to be ridiculed by a liberal asshole who *claims* to be independent but is clearly anything but... That would be like Obama appearing on Huckabee or Limbaugh.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ krellin, Romney is only at 37% on Intrade right now. You could more than double your money if you're right.

@Tantris...better check those polls again. Bounces happen immediately. Romney has been on a steady *incline* since the first debate, where the Pre-Debate picture of Romney as some evil, out-of-touch rich guy was dispelled when people actually saw him and heard him taking Obama to the woodshed.

Stackelberg -- not familiar with it...maybe I'll just put my money where my mouth is...errr....fingers...er....whatever.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=KWh

Romney wins and wins big.

@krellin - in priciple I agree, but with regards to a certain minimum being tax free. I must confess I think there should be a line where no tax is owed. We'll call it the "poverty line". But the biggest problem is the poverty line is made too comfortable today so that many would rather live in poverty than go out and get a fucking job. Yes, I know unemployment is up right now. If their Muslim prophet would have done the right thing and encouraged job growth (he says Romney's plan doesn't create jobs... No plan does! Companies create jobs, Plans need to encourage and promote companies). Anyhow, if Osama ...er... Obama had lowered the taxes, closed the loop[holes, and generally encouraged growth by not taxing the fuck out of business, there would be more jobs now. Instead, he put more people out of work with policies and legislature that puts a bigger burden on the SMB causing many to go under and others to lay off workers or slash salaries and benefits.

@Tantris - the latest 7 day rolling poll should put Obama on the bounce. After all, the liberal media says he won the last debate. But it doesn't. Romney is still rising.

Bounces spread with information. Thinking it will move back now a little bit. We will see.

2 days since the debate, and 1 day of polling data...plus, people don't always watch it, so one day since news/joke coverage of it with no days in the polls.

@Tantris....you are in a fantasy land. Apparently you don't understand how a bounce works...and, "bounces spread with information"....uh, you mean like every media outlet in teh world other than 1 saying Obama won...that isn't information, huh? lol wow...I believe you are living in denial.

@Draug - Yes- I agree there should be a poverty line adn that "poverty" is *ridiculous* today. Poverty is cell phones, internet, air conditioning, food with money to spare for cigarettes and alcohol, etc. Why the fuck would anyone give that up? ANY...Obama killed the work requirement for welfare...contributing to the *32%* increase in welfare during his 4 year term (incomplete...)

We thank you for your taxes on 6 figures, Draug, and encourage you to make more, because the lazy people need your help!

The first poll out the day after the first debate had Obama up 4 . Give it time.

Actually, I was wrong. It was two days after the first debate. Obama lead Romney 50-45 in the Gallup tracking poll.

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-vs-romney-gallup-poll-oct-5-results-2012-10

Most polls sample over 3 days (except for the Gallup tracking poll, which is a 7-day rolling average), so I would expect to wait at least 4 days before the effects of the second debate are apparent.

Here's mine:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=KXf

Obama win, but less than '08. I'm guessing squeaker for Romney in VA, but I think it will be the closest, or CO.

WRB, we only differ by 3 electoral votes! We have CO and NV flipped.

I think NV would go for Obama before CO, but I guess we'll see..

Yeah, I wasn't too careful in looking at demographics/polling on that call; you could well be right. My rationale was mainly "there are more Mormons in NV".

Democrats have an impressive machine in Nevada, and there are too many Paulbots on the Right there, who might waste their vote on the weird little congressman.

However, the economy has been really hit hard in NV, so I'm still thinking Romney wins it.

Love watching us as a nation get more involved in the horse race aspect of politics rather than actual issues.

There's no point rehashing the issues--few of us here are going to change our minds about them.

Fivethirtyeight just published an article about polls that is interesting. Gallup vs the world.

Mine:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Ldk

With a big breaking sign through the middel :(

middle?

Why cant i post 2 times in a row?

Ah, i just have to wait a few moments :)