Bump it
Autumn 01 went through..

Well, some expected things occurred this season and some very unexpected ones. I'll report from the strongest positions to the weakest positions in each sphere of influence.

WEST
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England: Two builds in 1901 and control of Denmark to boot. Anytime England can gain 2 builds in the first year, he immediately becomes the dominant power in the west even if everyone else gains the same number of builds. The strongest point of his control is having the army in Denmark instead of Norway. This gives him the power to pretty much pick and choose what to do in the coming season. I could easily see any type of alliance available for England. Although the army in Denmark spells more trouble for Germany than it does for France, it seems like Denmark was negotiated since Germany didn't even try for it. I anticipate a fleet build in London and either a fleet in Liverpool or army in Edinburgh.

France: The French are sitting on a fair position and clearly worked with Germany where Belgium is concerned. His choice of allies is more limited but could still go either way. I expect to see a fleet in Brest and army in Paris but a strong front against England might also mean a second fleet but that's putting a lot of trust in Germany.

Germany: Not the best opening year. Moving Munich to Ruhr in the fall doesn't do much unless you're planning on building a unit in Munich. He's clearly pushing for an alliance with the French given control of Belgium and not having moved to Burgundy. The fact that the English have control of Denmark could well spell bad news should the F/G become a E/F. I anticipate a fleet in Kiel and army in Munich.

EAST
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Italy: In a *VERY* surprise move, the Italian slips out of standard Lepanto to gain control of Trieste. Even though he's put as the #1 position in the east, it's only a fragile lead. An army build in Venice would give him more ability to maintain control of his new-found Austrian center but the Budapest build will mean that he could simply force him out sometime next year. He's clearly plying for a Turkish ally but given that the Turk played extremely poorly last season with the NMR, he might be putting all his weight on a weak board. I expect to see a fleet in Naples and army in Venice, but it wouldn't be a complete shocker to see two armies.

Austria: Even though he gained only 1 build, I still put Austria as the #2 power because Russia doesn't have a strong position against any foreign power and we could see a strong Austria going into next year as well if he's able to regain lost ground and pull out strong. I don't foresee a bounce in Galicia to be in the cards anymore and I anticipate a necessary A/R. I doubt there's any type of AIR due to the fact that if there were, Italy would have been much better moving to the AEG and forgoing the second build at Tunis. Naturally, an army will show up in Budapest.

Russia: Not a terrible spot to be in #3 because so many positions stand on the edge of a knife and he could very well pull to the #2 spot by the coming year. His position is still really great considering that he's allied with Austria and I don't anticipate this to change. I enjoy a 2v2 in the east and a A/R v I/T would fill out nicely. He's going to start having to do something soon, however, and simply using Sevastopol to support hold his fleet in Rumania isn't going to do anything for him in the coming year. In the north is where he will face trouble and if anything keeps him in the #3 spot it will be developments in Scandinavia. Sweden could be easily compromised but not without a fight if he doesn't have a neutral England. I see strong communications with Germany occurring as well as a lot of press with E. Naturally an army in Moscow and depending on what he thinks will happen in the north, a fleet in StP nc if he's taking an active part in the north, or possibly another army for more security.

Turkey: An NMR? Really? Poor show. Just for the rest of the new players in the game, ****If you have the ability to get on an hour before the turn of a phase to see if someone will NMR, don't support holds along your border**** I predicted a struggling Turk in my pre-game comments and suggested that he would be the first to be eliminated and this will only solidify my opinion. Turkey may have an Italian ally, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if that crumbles because no one wants to ally with a guy who can't show for a season. Also, if you *didn't* NMR, then it was an idiot move to not support a hold at Bulgaria. I expect to see an army build given the likely I/T and a fleet build won't get him much.

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Closing comments: I originally predicted a weak Germany and Turkey in my opening comments and it still stands. Although I also called for the early elimination of Turkey followed by Germany, I could be wrong with the powers in the west. A F/G could turn the tide for G. I posted the predicted builds for the coming Winter and won't comment on things to look for in the Spring until the build phase shows.

I offer apologies here as well, to all players on the board as well as to the people in the back, TAs and Profs that put in time and effort to make sure the game goes without a hitch and the schooling is worth it.
People who have played me will tell you that this has never happened to me before. I do not offer this as an excuse, but rather as evidence that I do not have the character some would believe me to have.

So once more: apologies. I wish that there was a good reason for my having missed the clock, but there isn't. I saw the 3am deadline and read it as 3pm. Knowing I'd be on this morning, I left confident that I would be able to enter my moves then.

It's generally a good idea to put in for some temporary orders in case something like this happens. You surely had to have known that you could have submitted holds and changed it if need be.

Apologies accepted and I hope you can get back on the horse again. It certainly makes things difficult but not impossible by any means. Good luck to you.

On a second note, it was pointed out that I somehow missed some failed supports along the way. Most of my commentary still stands in the east but the west could see some differences in terms of the possibility of an E/F instead of an F/G. I'll comment more later.

Back for a little more commentary to clear up a few things. In my haste to celebrate my 6th wedding anniversary, I didn't check the orders thoroughly. FYI to any green players, anytime you see a unit simply sitting on the map with no apparent orders, especially early in the game, it's probably a failed support order.

Thus, a few changes are in order. It does appear that we will see an E/F instead of an F/G which was much more what I anticipated before the start of the game. It would have been much better for England, however, to simply tell France up front that he would be taking Denmark so that France would have bounced Germany in Belgium rather than get support and not take it. I still like the idea of taking Denmark over Belgium because it can be relatively easy to hold so long as Russia doesn't step in and aid Germany, whereas Belgium can be lost if the E/F becomes an F/G. However, it will be a tad more difficult to gain ground on Germany without the shifting of some fleets on part of England. Germany can easily hold off French armies until the end of time and it will come down to England as to whether or not the alliance succeeds.

In the east, Austrian support of Turkey was clearly a dropped bombshell with the Turkish NMR. Strange that Austria would support the Turk and not the Russian given that Turkey is easily manageable so long as he doesn't get outside of Bulgaria and Russia's fleet in Rumania means that Austria doesn't have to worry about stabs coming his way anytime soon. I'm interested to see how things pan out in future seasons given that the A/T lost a little ground from the last fall.

In terms of Italy, I still favor changing things up to square off a 2v2 in the east simply because it can guarantee a long-term alliance from the person you rescue from harm without having to necessarily reciprocate in later years if you don't want to. As Italy, the country remains relatively "neutral" toward all countries and has the freedom to pick it's battle without fear of reprisal until one eastern power is eliminated, even in the face of a Juggernaut. In addition to this, it gives the Italian more time to communicate negotiate terms of a future alliance or simply till the diplomatic ground and see what turns up.

My build predictions will remain the same as well as my commentary for the other nations.

Well, I suppose some commentary on the builds is in order, as there were a few builds that were surprising to see. However, it's prudent of me to continue commentary from strongest position in each sphere of influence to the weakest.

England at #1: With two fleets coming in at Lvp and Lon, even Ray Charles could have said that they're destined for French waters. He's in a good position to gain traction against F and even more so if he can make landfall someplace. The huge drawback to his plan, and I mean huge, is the Danish army. Sure it gave him a second build but it's way out of position. In order to move it, he must neglect the center altogether giving more power in the hands of Germany than what he needs to be giving him especially in light of the builds. The army in Denmark can only affect Germany and only if France is on board for the fight. I will give a split prediction for the coming year. If he can find an ally in Germany and swing things in his favor, I see a build at Brest in the works. If not, then I see England at -1 unit with the loss of Denmark, possibly at -2 if he loses Scandinavia as well.

Germany at #2: Yes, Germany suddenly vaulted to the #2 spot and is bordering on the top spot in the west. He has the pick of the litter in terms of alliances and both favor him more than his ally. Currently poised for a F/G, the tide could turn on a surprising twist to become a E/G. His builds were sound and maintain versatility. For the coming year, if he maintains working with the French I expect to see a build from Denmark but if he switches, I don't foresee any builds this year but poised to take Paris or Marseilles next year and the other in the following one.

France at #3: Clearly he's headed to English waters but I think it's a slow idea to build two fleets because it's a full year or more out of the action having to go around the peninsula. Second, France is banking his chips on a 'play nice' Germany but if he blitzes France's eastern border, the fleets will be powerless to stop him from forcing their way into Burgundy which is no place that France wants an army. While it's true that France *can* hold off England and Germany even with an enemy piece in Burgundy, it's only by having an extra army in there someplace to do the job.

Even if you are banking on a German ally, it's still a better idea to get the fleet/army combo because 1) France will need armies on the English Island in order to gain footing but still maintain a land force to defend himself 2) it's much easier to use a diplomatic approach with England if things go awry and 3) all those fleets are going to simply get bunched up with all the English fleets in the water. Next year I see no builds and possibly a loss of Brest if things go badly.

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For the east

Italy at #1: He is in the strongest position and by no small matter. Although he could lose Trieste, he could very reasonably negotiate his way to keeping it in turn for an Austrian alliance. If things go well, he could see yet another build but the worst-case scenario would be that he simply maintains. He might lose Trieste but gain Greece or even keep Trieste for another year and gain a Turkish center. Overall, however, I predict no builds but poised to gain next year.

Austria at #2: But this is a fragile #2. He's going to have to do some fast talking in order to simply maintain and he could slip to the #3 spot at the year's end unless things change. He won't slip to #4 because of his stronger position than Turkey going into the next season and I wouldn't be surprised to see him ignore the Italian presence to focus solely on Turkey or Russia this year in order to maintain his current standing. I predict either no builds but a stronger position for next year or the loss of a center and a weaker position.

Russia at #3: The army build in St Pete looks like it's poised to maintain. It's obviously not anti-English completely but could snag the remainder of Scandinavia in the brewing western war but is making strong points that it has no commanding stakes to be had in the north and his focus is on the south at the meantime. I expect to see Russia in a stronger position in the coming year no matter what he does with his units. He could help dismantle Austria for 1 build or even attack the Turk for the same results. If Austria decides to maintain his prior course, he could simply maintain the number of units he has on the map but have a weaker spot in the south but I don't think that's going to happen. I do expect to see 1-2 builds for Russia in the coming season unless he bungles it with poor diplomacy.

Turkey at #4: His position is a bit awkward. His control of the Black Sea is intended to strengthen himself against Russia but the fleet build was a stretch. I don't really see much use coming out of the unit because Italy will command the southern waters no-contest. Also, the fleet build means that his backside is totally undefended. If Russia strikes, he has to guess at what happens. If he works to maintain control of the Black Sea, Russia could slip in behind him with his armies but if he moves to bounce such a move and Russia simply moves his fleet into the BLA then his position is equally poor. Given all this, though, he could make ground with Austrian support yet again into Rumania if Austria will have it. It's difficult to predict anything for Turkey in the coming season but it depends solely on Austria. If A decides to ditch Turkey and instead ask Russia for Bulgaria then his position will drop, but if he can get Austria on his side, he could maintain or even see a build in the coming season.

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In closing, things to look for in the west is what happens with Germany and who will be the strongest voice in his ear. My original prediction was that Germany would be stale but he has startlingly turned that around. The second thing to look for is how much influence Russia wants to make in the north. This coming season will either be very dull or it will create fireworks.

In the east, things are getting tense. The diplomatic waters will go from simmering to boiling and a lot of centers could be changing hands and there are going to be some very interesting results any way you roll the dice. The questions to have are where does the Italian army at Tunis make landfall and who is Austria going to work with in the coming year because he definitely won't be out any allies and might even gain a pocket-ally along the way.

I will write later today... weekend posts are problem, I'm traveling all the time and the mobile is really not ok for such messages, especially with the crashes. I tried once, tried to send it midway and and it got lost.

Same thing happens to me. No problems

bump

Triumvir has gone AWOL since Saturday.. >.> :(

Make sure you message http://www.webdiplomacy.net/profile.php?userID=28372 in case he doesn't check this thread.

I'll see if I can get a fill-in until he comes back

Scmoo, I take it that he is France's mentor?

Actually, I just checked Trumvir's page, and he was online a few hours ago, so is there still a problem?

Nope he's back. :)

Bump for spring moves.

As the only Prof in this thread, (where ya at Ivo?) I'll post for the Spring. Some things have changed and some players made some really great choices in moves that I will comment on.

#1 France: France and Germany are nearly tied for the top position in the west but given that the French have no units even remotely near their centers gives them the freedom to make mistakes and experiment with getting units into position that Germany simply doesn't have the luxury of. The English gang-up has also dropped England into a very compromising position and France was able to successfully vault himself into the prime spot this phase. The southern fleet move along the coastline indicates clearly that he has no intentions of moving west which is a good move, not to mention that it's certainly much faster than taking to the waters. Far too often, players try to start taking on a second target/opponent prematurely in order to secure locations across the stalemate line, and F/I are prime candidates of this type of play. They both want to get the jump on the other country but try to do so while still heavily embroiled in the affairs of their respective circles. France will certainly see a build this season or next depending on how well France can predict English moves. I expect, however, that F will play it safe and move into position this season and make gains in the next year.

#2 Germany: At the #2 spot, Germany is suffering the brunt of English attacks and needs to be careful in the coming years. The French alliance is going to pay off but not as quickly as it will for F. The outcome will be one of two things: if Germany can get a foothold this season and reduce England then he will have less to worry about in the coming season but if the English can successfully stave off the assault on their east then it's plausible that the F/G would become a E/G due to the strain that comes from stagnant positions and a growing France. In the end, Germany has no fear of losing this second place spot any time soon.

#3 England: The F/G has begun to make headway and England will not be making ground any time soon. The second fleet build will undoubtedly cause problems in defense since the only competent way in defending the Island from assault is having a standing army around for maneuverability. The fleet-clogged waters along Germany/Scandinavia means that no one is going to make gains or losses there unless a very cohesive F/G/R has a clearly defined head guiding the lot of them. Losses to England will come at home but I don't anticipate that it will occur this season but certainly next unless England can do some slick negotiating with his neighbors. It's certainly not unfathomable for England to turn the tide with someone and we may eventually see a shift in alliances.
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In the east, things are a little less clear-cut and a simple path for some countries is less defined. The 4 countries mucking about will cause a lot of shifting in positions and we are already beginning to see some of that from the residue of Spring moves.

#1 Italy: Italy is still holding on to that top spot but not by much. He will be strained to see gains this season and if he comes away with a build, it would be by the good graces of another country and not by his own strength. It's expected to see a slew of support orders this season and with an army stranded on Tuins means that not much will happen until it's back into a useful position. Greece is a possibility for a future build, even this season but I expect that if Greece goes to anyone it will be under Turkish control.

#2 Russia: Naturally, Russia has climbed up the ladder after turning on the Turk (sort of). This should have been a bit expected given that the fleet has no ability to really do anything other than move on him. The army slide from Sev-Arm was a great choice in putting pressure on Turkey and causing him to extend his reach with his units possibly to beyond capacity. The early move of Mos-Sev in 1901 is still causing backlash in preventing him from snagging that top position. Had Sevastopol been empty for a fleet build, Russia could have dominated the Black Sea and secured the top spot for a long time to come. At this point, he is the most likely candidate for a build this year. As far as his position in the north is concerned, it looks promising. As long as there isn't a shift in alliances, then Russia has some small measure of a future up there for a long time but he must remain the hinge that others rely on for expansion.

#3 Austria: Austria is prime for receiving an ally. If he doesn't have one in Russia (and he should) then he will continue his slide down to the #4 spot. Seeing Austria in a troubled fashion is beyond what I anticipated in the beginning and my prediction was that Austria would have started and remained strong through the entire game and would be participating in a draw. A surprise twist and some misfortune in an early NMR seems to have hurt him more than any other player on the board. His position teeters on edge and depending on Russia, Austria will fold in 2 years or stabilize through the remainder of this year and see possible growth in the next. He may possibly lose 1 center this season or none if the cards are played correctly.

#4 Turkey: His position may change soon and be swapped with that of Austria but it's also a possibility that he will suffer additional losses at the hands of Russia. His position means that he will have to make difficult decisions on whether to take a chance on Greece and see a possible loss at a home center or protect everything he has and gain no ground. Diplomacy, however, is a game of risk-taking and the player who spends his time supporting units all day is not going to win. Holding here or there during times of tension is a reasonable choice but not as a regular thing. What Turkey does tend to have going for him is that everyone seems to be talking to him regularly and although alliance shifting has caught him in the proverbial "Achillies' Heel", I don't expect that he's quite on his way out the door yet. This season could very well be a make-or-break season if he tries to be daring.

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Things to look for this season is 1) what's going on along the German controlled coast. A lot of this has to do with Russia and the turning of the tides. England could negotiate some things to get himself into a better position against France but it would mean having to make sacrifices along the way and depending on where Russia stands in the conflict could mean the difference between England holding steady or walking toward the exit sign. England needs an army on the Island but at the same time he needs to interrupt the flow of events currently on the docket. 2) What will Russia do in the south. The move to Galicia could mean a sign of Austrian support or it might mean helping Italy. Second, is there an alliance shift going to occur yet again? This season could mean stagnation for everyone involved or small gains by one or two countries as units shift about and jockey for a better position.

bump

Apparently there is need for a 2 week pause?

Wow, a 2-week pause? That's going to hurt the game since everyone is going to have to return to the game and catch up on the action and rethink plans. I'm the type that thinks about the game during downtime like what to say to whom and developing possible plans for the coming season and so a 2-week pause would crush the flow of possibly all 7 players.

I'm interested to see what's goes down after the unpause.

We all agreed that we've enjoyed the level of communication and competitiveness of the game so far and would hate to ruin it by letting a NMR or CD happen. So we thought it would be best to go for the long pause.

What we're debating now is how we should handle communication during the pause. There are only 5 hrs left after the unpause so we figured that we should probably leave some room to talk.

Two week pause is great for me as a TA. I have a really busy two weeks coming up. :-)

I'll keep bumping it every once in a while soo.....bump

Guys, sorry, a lot of work and I'm too busy, can't afford any time to this.

No prob Ivo. We'll carry on :)

bump! 1 week gone. halfway there

Lol goldfinger, you make it seem like the Iron Man competition. :)

lol. I'm glad for the bumps though. I was gonna do it myself.

bump