You can't bet on anyone in your own league, we want a clean hobby. We have enough arguments without getting embroiled in betting scandals. There is a reason you are 9-1, you are only the outsider in betting parlance.

Hmm, a lot of restrictions from the new bookie. Monopoly always leads to bad customer service... We might need to look for an alternative. Or find get someone else to place the bet for me :)

no beards, no proxies

To be honest, if I could bet on this league I wouldn't bet on myself, but on Ivo, because he is the highest ghost ranked with ridiculous odds.

"You can't bet on anyone in your own league, we want a clean hobby"

Oh, I can think of ways to still game the system. Bet on someone in League X, then work with other players in that league to throw the series to them - on the agreement that you'll do your best to throw it to someone else in *your* league.

I don't consider this a real issue, but then again I think multiaccounting is just *stupid* and a huge waste of time, so you never know...

Actually, this would be metagaming. No one is playing more than one account, but they are using outside factors to influence the game (or league).

how are you going to actually trade your points after you win or lose a bet?

@hellait - read ghostie's comments in the premier league betting thread. He is going to move points around if that is what people want.

9-1 on Ivo?!?

15 on ivo, 5 on centurian

Ivo_Ivanov is now 9/2 from here on in. Well done anyone who backed him at long odds, I will honour that bet.

@fortnox - I changed Ivo_Ivanov odds on the other thread 2 mins before your bet, sorry. Do you want the new price or do you want to back someone else?

Can we have a vote on whether you should (A) be able to bet on yourself and (B) whether you should be able to bet within your league.

No, i'll stick with my original bet, and I'm against people betting on themselves or in their leagues. It's standard practice (ask Pete Rose!)

I think 20 is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, but it's better *not* to allow people to bet in their own division, to avoid even the hint of a conflict of interest

I think 9/2 is still great odds for Ivo. He's a fantastic player.

I'll go 12 on Ivo, 6 on stratagos, and 6 on Centurian.

Thus managing to bet more than 20.

He's a mod, with Great Powers comes Great Abilities to Thumb Your Nose At Limitations

It should be fairly easy to frame a market here. Simply, the ratings form an equilibrium where your G-rating as a proportion of the G-ratings of all players within the game represents your probability of winning.

So... This relates to the betting, because if we were to use G-ratings as a guide to set player odds, then the following would be the *fair* odds:

Ivo_ivanov 13/4
Centurian 4/1
Darwyn 13/2
stratagos 13/2
abgemacht 13/2
Xapi 9/1
dangermouse 10/1

But given any bookie still in business takes an implied cut, if we were to take a 20% cut or charge a 20% markup, then the offered odds would be:

Ivo_ivanov 5/2
Centurian 13/4
Darwyn 11/2
stratagos 11/2
abgemacht 11/2
Xapi 15/2
dangermouse 17/2


Now, there may be some players here who have not yet reached their equilibrium. Hence, if I were forming a market I would adjust up the percentage probability (and hence adjust down the odds) for any player who has not played many matches and/or has a G-rating which has been improving recently.

In percentage terms, the G-ratings implied probabilities (fair) are:

Ivo_ivanov 23.6%
Centurian 19.7%
Darwyn 13.0%
stratagos 12.9%
abgemacht 12.7%
Xapi 9.5%
dangermouse 8.7%

I'd expect my new Ghost rating to suffer a huge drop - have lost 5 games in a row now - I'll be an underdog :)

haha! In all likelihood... you'll still be either favourite or 2nd favourite. You're definitely the tall poppy in this game! :-)

I guess you haven't played the people and are just looking at it as pure numbers. It does not work this way. Everyone in this League is good enough to win it. Polar Bear won the premier league against any ranking (points or Ghost). This is not chess and after a certain level it's not a matter of skills, but of motivation/effort/luck - call it 'form' if you wish.

For a bookie, it is pure numbers. The point behind bookmaking is that you have a good enough return and even enough trade that you are always going to be ok just looking at the numbers.

Of course if you really wanted to get into it you would look at how each player has performed in the past against other highly ranked players.

I'm good at math. 12 on Ivo, 4 on Centurian, 4 on stratagos.

If it's not too late, I'd like to put 5 on Xapi, 15 on Ivo_ivanov.

Maniac will need to adrress the fact that dangermouse may not be joining us in the League. The replacement, if needed, would be a B league player.

Presumably that means that dangermouse doesn't win, right?

Yes, but it also means that now dangermouse can bet on the League :P

He also hasn't visited the site since september...