Well, it seems that I have a moment, so I'd like to post my thoughts on this past series of moves.
#1 Turkey: I think you lost some momentum this last season, but only in your western endeavor. I'll come back to that in a moment. In the east, you played much like I suspected you might. When I commented last season on builds, I stated that we'd see 2 armies and a fleet. This is because your gains toward 18 will be the remaining Italian centers, Sevastopol, and either a French center or another Russian center. I anticipated a fleet build in Ank with armies in Con and Smy because I pictured an army move to Armenia and Bulgaria and a fleet move to the Black Sea. When your builds came about, I was a bit surprised to see something slightly different. I suspected that given the Russian army in Sev, the armies along the eastern portion were for a move and support (naturally). The only problem this brings about is how to take Sev without sacrificing anything. Moscow is in position to support a hold, but the question is what Russia will do with Gal. This is going to be purely guesswork unless you have some inside connection that I'm unaware of. Now to the west. I'd have played this a bit more agressively. When gunning for 18, each country is at a disadvantage that differs from many of the other countries. Ausria and Germany are vulnerable to attack immediately because their centralized nature. Italy is slow-going, Russia can become a massive monster quickly which makes other nations a bit tense, and France can miss out on a stab necessary to gain 18. England and Turkey are a bit different. Their biggest weakness is that they are so far removed from the other side of the map that they are often the last country to cross the stalemate line. In a current Diplomacy study I'm working on, I'm checking where each country gets its 18 centers when it wins. England and Turkey almost always gain 17 of their centers on their respective sides and 1 center from the other side of the major line. These countries often settle for a draw when they can't get to the other side of the line before the other players can form a resistence movement to counter. After this season, you'll have 15 centers and have to pick up 3 centers from the following: Moscow, Warsaw, St Pete (possibly), Marseilles, Spain and Portugal. I was expecting to see some of this advanced planning take shape. But I didn't. I would have entirely ditched out on taking the Italian centers and focused on getting my units across the line someplace. My army would have moved to Piedmont, I'd have had a fleet in the Western Med, and I'd have been hitting for that line hard and fast to take a French center because you could be faced with not getting Warsaw and Moscow. 3 builds this season does the same as 4 but position is everything. Finally, I think you were fortunate that Russia moved to Gal and Bul-Gal wasn't successful. If he simply held and waited to see if you'd have forced him out, then you'd see a stray unit in a very uncomfortable spot.
#2 France: Wow, not the season I expected. The assault on Russia was very peculiar. I understand that he was attacking you, but you 3 are on the defensive while Turkey is trying to solo. This season looks like an attempt to move toward the solo more than it does an attempt to lock down a stalemate line. I was very surprised to see F Bre-ENG, A Bur-Mun and the supported attack on Kiel. I can only assume that Germany and Russia will ally together. I'm also thinking that Turkey will have a much higher chance of soloing this one. There's no cohesion at all among you three powers and at this stage, I'd be patching things up with your neighbors, let bygone's be bygones and tackle the problem at hand. On the flip-side, you'll have 2 builds coming, 3 if you're very lucky.
#3 Russia: Eek. Not the season I'd have hoped it would have been. The French attack took me by surprise. I can understand most of your moves as it looks like you and Germany have come to some sort of concensus, but there are 2
where I wish I'd have seen something a bit different. The first is your northern fleet. I think that it would have been good to get it into the BAR because if worst comes to worst and Turkey takes Moscow and Warsaw, you need a unit west of St Pete to hold the line. The fleet was doing nothing and could have been devoted to that cause. As it stands, though, you've got other problems to iron out. The other was the move to Gal. I'd have held my ground and let him force me out of Vie, especially with a move coming from Sev. The move A Sev-Rum means that you had some idea that he might move Rum to do something and if that's the case, the only assumption I could make is that the move to Gal was to fight against Rum-Ukr. When I'm in a pickle, a lot of times, I try not to do certain things with armies all alone and I prefer to be forced to retreat just in case my opponent leaves a back door open. It's even a great policy to get an ally to force you out of a nearby location so that you can use the retreat as a sort of "second-strike" after everything has gone through to shoot the gap. Overall, not a bad season, though, so I wouldn't kick yourself. Your biggest worry is to bake some friendship bread.
#4 Germany: Not sure why you chose to do virtually nothing with your units. I'm guessing that the French talked really nicely in your ear about a 4-way, stopping the Turk, and all that jazz and then moved how he wanted. In those cases, I always prepare for a potential stab. In this situation, you have to realize that people want a 3-way, not a 4-way and you're likely the extra baggage. I would have liked to see a self-standoff in Yorkshire or doing something with your fleet. Having your units sit idle does nothing to stop the Turk and does nothing to stop F/R from attacking you. As it is, R/F are clearly not on the same page and it gives you some wiggle room, but usually at this point, people are done talking outside the absolutely necessary. Good luck.
Ok, just to put it out there, I'd like to talk stalemate lines. Well, the 17-17 line anyhow, because I suspect that everyone reads the entire commentary and not just what I post to them. I'm sure you're all pretty familiar with the major line that runs across the map, but if you're not, it's a nice 17-17 split.
To the east we have:
-all Turkish centers (3), the Balkans (4), Austria (3), Italy (3), Tunis (1) and Russia except for Sevastopol (3).
To the west:
-England (3), the 01 neutrals (5), France (3), Iberia (2), Germany (3) and St Pete (1).
As I posted earlier, the goal of any power, if he is to attain 18, has to cross the stalemate line before the opposing side can prevent this. Germany, France and Russia sit on or across the line giving them an advantage, because they can easily make 1 move and be on the other side. Italy is next in it's ability to get across the line and it has a broad range of center-nabbing ability since it can stab France pretty quickly and cross the line in the west. England and Turkey are often at the biggest disadvange since they're so far removed from the line. This takes advanced planning when playing these countries to try to cross at some point before the other nations can stop you. So, for those of you that are new, you need to think about timing, when to cross the line, and how to do it so that it raises as little alarms as possible but is quick enough to solidify yourself for the possible solo.
SoW Summer 2011 Game 2
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