Autumn moves went through.

Yes indeed, F09 moves went through. I was sitting over the game like a hawk :)

F09: A very sweet year, much like what I enjoy seeing in a game at this late stage. Approximately 60% of all games are concluding by 1910 and often, the players finishing as part of the end-game (solo or draw) have eliminated all of the powers that will be eliminated, but this game will clearly be part of the lower 40%. I expect that at least one more nation, possibly 2 will still be eliminated before it's all said and done. This game could easily extend beyond 1916.

#1 France: You've surged back into the top position on the map, even though you have less units than Germany. I place you here simply because you have no real enemies outside G while he has some critical areas that he will continue to see losses. Being the top spot does not mean that you don't have any real issues to worry about, but these will pan out in years to come. A huge kudos to receiving 2 builds this coming year and solidifying yourself as a force to be reckoned with. Your progress throughout the game simply shows everyone that just because things look bleak does not mean that you're out of the game, and in this game, anything can happen. One thing that I wish I would have seen differently is the MAO-ENG move. I think that it would have been better put to use moving to the IRI. Since you would have surely had 1 build coming, any attempt by Germany to slip into the Channel would mean that he'd be facing a new fleet build in Bre. This type of thinking is a little less conservative and it anticipates where you're headed in the following year. In the long run, however, this type of movement is always up for debate and I can't really slight you much for using it. For builds, I believe the map will be seeing a fleet in Brest and army in Paris.

#2 Germany: This second place spot is a rough one. You're certainly in the #2 spot but not comfortably so with F and R breathing down your neck. One of the things I predicted would be Russian advancement on Berlin and I wasn't certain if Gal would be supported into Sil as it was here or if we would be seeing Gal-Boh and War-Sil for a 3 unit front line. France and Russia will clearly be working together, and I'm not entirely sure that you'll escape the flames in this game. Your fleets are still a bit out of position and even with a build coming in at Berlin, France and Russia have advanced enough on your territory that the build is rather negligible. I think a fleet build will be coming in at Berlin this year.

#3 Russia: Wow. Very nice. I'm not sure if you talked Turkey into simply letting you have Serbia so that you don't have to ditch a unit or if you simply told him that you'd move there to cover an Italian move or retreat, but either case, I'm sure Turkey was ok with it and the results were beyond expectations. This allows you to maintain a fleet in a really great spot (I also see that you moved it to a place where it can cause more damage, nicely done). Part of me was worried that if you came away having to lose a unit, that you'd ditch this one, but now this doesn't have to be the case. I do believe that Turkey will be reinstated Serbia once you control Berlin and the F/R/T will continue to thrive, assuming that Turkey doesn't stab you later on.

#4 Turkey: Ouch. A third straight year with no builds, slow progress, and Italy continuing to be a thorn in your side preventing you from being the beneficiary of his centers. I'm sure this will end, but the question is 'how long'. The fact that Italy has a reduction coming to him will help out, but eventually, your fleets have to begin making progress. As long as the F/R/T remains an F/R/T, then you're in good shape, but if this shifts, either you or Russia could be in the hot seat again. I'm sure an army build will show up in Constantinople.

#5 Italy: The Russian covering Serbia was a bit of a shock, and I expected you to have a retreat route if you got pushed out of Greece, but that's not the case. You're faced with a disband but with Turkey losing a fleet, it gives you room to change some things up and not worry about being at a naval disadvantage. I'm still a bit interested in the fact that France has remained entirely neutral toward you which shows that he's content to let you burn while he advances. This increases my belief in a F/R/T. I'd have contemplated striking France a while back simply to give Germany the ability to work with you and ensure mutual survival. At this point, it's a bit unclear as to how effective that type of attack would be since you don't have any units to spare as you did a year and a half ago when the TYN fleet was simply sitting dormant. I think you'll be the next country out the door but it will still take about 3 years. For disbands, I think the TYN fleet will be ditched.


Things to look for: At this point, there aren't many immediate things that stand out unless a stab occurs between Russia and Turkey. The course that everyone is set on will, I assume, continue on until the end.

bump

I'll post a short comment on some builds that didn't go as I predicted which will also serve to bump the thread.

Germany: I gotta disagree with the army build. Initially, I thought an army would serve decent here as well, but then I thought about the situation that you're in. I don't think you'll be able to get Munich back anytime soon, if at all, and so an army and a fleet are essentially the same thing in terms of what they can support, but you also have to think that Russia's going to move in on Berlin this year, and when he does, you're not going to have a place to retreat to with an army, and so your newly built unit is going to get force-disbanded. A fleet, on the other hand, could easily retreat to the Baltic where it can be put to further use.

Turkey: I can understand the need for the fleet in order to gain naval dominance in the south, but you're gonna have a *lot* of shuffling to go down before the fleet can be made useful. I've got other ideas as well, so I'm not going to dis your fleet build too early. I'll wait until the end of the spring phase before I comment more.

bump. It's an hour and a half before the turn of the spring retreats phase. I'm not sure if I'll be on today to comment on the moves and it might be monday around 10ish tomorrow (EST)

S10: The game is clearly coming to a close with a 3-way draw. I put the end game in 1913 to 1915 and if it goes beyond then, it's because someone is doing a stellar job of slowing down their opponents.

#1 France: Back in the driver seat, I expect that you'll have 1 build coming to you this season and a nicer setup to control the English Island next year. Germany's fleet lockdown will ensure that your movements are calculated and fluid. The Italian nuissance will be reduced another center this year, but the Italian movements will simply mean that the pressure will be on you (what little there is) instead of on R/T. I must say, I was a bit surprised to not see a support order issued by Munich to assist the Russian into Berlin. This makes me second guess about how much cooperation is between the two of you and whether or not it's simply two countries that happen to be attacking the same country for the same reason. I'm sure the loose alliance is still there, and if it's not, then you've got more to think about than Italy.

#2 Russia: In a really great position, technically, but you'll clearly have a build coming unless you're talking Turkey into giving you Venice. Not sure what the attack on the North Sea was going to accomplish unless France told you he was lending several supports across the north for you that he didn't follow through with. The toughest part of your position is Germany controlling St Pete. This prevents you from gaining necessary fleets in the north to help you bring down Germany. In the south, I still don't like the look of things. I understand that you've got a pretty secure alliance, but I never like seeing one member of that alliance in total control of whether or not a stab occurs and the number of Turkish units near vacant Russian centers is always a foolish choice, especially when it doesn't have to be that way. I'm not betting on a Turkish stab, but if you're going to vacate several of your centers along a mutual border, it's better to make sure your ally does the same. If G and T were to ally at the last minute, you'd be in the hurt. As it is, carry on, but don't get used to the idea that things work out this nicely between two "allies" because I've said it before and it's always true, that in this game, the only alliances to be had are the one's that are forced.

#3 and 4 Germany and Turkey: As I mentioned in a prior season, my rankings stem from which situation I'd rather be in at any given point, and not based on the number of centers controlled by a nation. The tight race between Turkey and Germany is pretty close. I'll touch on the pros and cons for both nations below.

Germany: Your situation is very bleak with the soon-to-be loss of 2 more centers this year. The army build this year proved to be pretty much what I expected: an early disband. In addition to this tight spot, your home centers will be gone this year, which means that the hope of making progress later is slim to none. I wouldn't be surprised to see you become a janissary to another power to ensure your survival. You might be asking, based on the difficult circumstances, why not put you at the solid fourth position? The reason is that in this game, there's always hope and if you were to somehow convince someone to stop being an enemy, or stop being a neutral party and start being an integral part of your survival and future existence, especially in this year or the next, then the tide would turn. I believe that in nearly every situation, there's always something that can be said, something that can be offered, or something that can be done to turn an enemy into a friend, or get a neutral party to switch sides and help you out. It often means more conversation than most people can put forward, simply because they're not sure what to say or do or that the person in the situation isn't the type to talk much in certain situations. I'm interested to see if you can pull something like this out. I'm not privy to the various conversations that go on around the board, so I can't assess the situation first hand. A hearty good luck to you, for what it's worth.

Turkey: Your situation is like a budding flower. Your options are always open, and I see at least one build coming this season regardless of what happens with you. Italy has clearly been reacting to the forum posts and it has turned in your favor. I'm never sure what's going on in the behind-the-scenes game, and situations like the one you're in always intrigue me. The game's not over and I'm curious to see what you do this season. I'm sure regardless of what will happen, you'll at least be squarely in the third spot on the board. I can't completely put you there quite yet, though. The season isn't over yet, and negotiations could still be going on. At the rate you're headed, I'm sure you're part of the drawing party, which is good regardless, because the guy that graduates bottom of his class in medical school is still called 'doctor' much in the same way that a 1 center draw is still a draw. I also suspect that you'll be in the Ionian, and hopefully Venice. I must also send you a strong congrats in being able to filter your fleets into position quickly. I wasn't sure it would happen quickly, but you were astoundingly successful.

#5 Italy: It seems that my commentary last season was the basis for the moves seen this spring. As I stated in the commentary last time, I think the move against France is too little too late. Again, I'm not seeing the press involved in the movements and it could be some sort of plea-bargain, but at this point, Germany isn't in a position to lend a hand in the fight. I hope that your movements give you some sort of glimmer of hope. As I said to Germany, however, in a vast majority of situations, there's something that can be done to give you a way out. It's less likely in your situation, and even though I haven't seen the press involved, to the outward appearance, there appears to be something that you can still do. Good luck for the season to come.

Use the enlarged map too.

touche

I'll have commentary up pretty soon after the phase ends.

Ha. Good luck figuring this one out.
I need a special section in my EoG to try explain this...

F10: This year had several terrible miscommunications that cost some measure of ground for nearly all countries. There were also some very subtle things that I'm still debating on whether or not to talk about.

#1 France: Ouch. The miscommunication between you and Russia about the caputre of Kiel had some very clear issues. I've often found that this type of miscue occurs once or twice per game, and in most cases, it sets a country or two back. Here, it certainly had ramifications, although nothing that has long-term effects. The fact that you don't have room for retreat means that a rebuild is in order, clearly a fleet to replace the one lost. Also, the move to spain's south coast is a bit strange. I understand the move, but here, it's going to open up a question for you as to what to do in the build phase. I anticipate that things will continue to remain as they have and the Italian feint won't really throw you off much. I think the map will be seeing a fleet build at Brest.

#2 Russia: The miscue between you and France threw off some of your progress, but I don't think that it took much of your steam in the north. To the south, there was clearly some friction that finally caused a cog in the machine to break between you and Turkey. I'm not sure why the cooperative efforts between the two of you broke down, but you're in worse shape than he is. The holes in your defenses are now going to have a price to be paid. This goes back to what I was saying in previous years about alliances. The only alliances to be had are the ones that can be forced. At this point, Sevastopol, Serbia, Budapest and Vienna are now critical locations, and the turn against each other means that Italy now has an ally. He will either have one in you or in Turkey and the question will remain as to which one will be the beneficiary of 4 additional units helping out. Also, the Turkish moves left you with no builds. It is a possibility that the two of you are still cooperating and that you were merely negotiating some center-swapping, but I highly doubt it with all of the strange moves that took place in the south including the failed support of an Italian army to Trieste. Let's see how the following year shapes up.

#3 Turkey: You've got a leg up with the change of events but the next year will determine how things go for you. It will either be a temporary increase or it will be something solid. The build from Rumania will have clear advantages over Russia, but I get the feeling that you'll be lacking the ally that he has, and that benefit could swing some leverage in his favor. I'm curious how you plan on proceeding into the next year because any change in framework has to come with a plan going into it, otherwise it will crumble. For builds, I anticipate one at Constantinople. I'm also leaning toward an army, but a fleet wouldn't surprise me by any means.

#4 Germany: Not a terrible year. Down only one center, but still not any real improvement. The changes in the south could have some ramifications in the north for you as well, possibly something that you can capitalize on. Clearly the 3-way that I was predicting from last year could very well change this year. One problem that I have, though, is that you've still got a nagging Russian fleet that you've decided to not deal with. There's still a problem with Kiel that you'll have to iron out. The move to net you Belgium isn't bad but it spreads out your units a little more which is what you don't want. A gap in your lines can cause a ton of frustration, as Russia can relate. I suspect that you're in the process of climbing out of the boiling waters and into something a scant more calm, but by no means still.

#5 Italy: A really good year for you, even though it didn't have any tangible results in terms of builds. The events in the south are going to give you some room to breathe and ability to negotiate some things. One question is still going to leave me wondering and it's whether or not Russia informed you about the support order ahead of time, and if he did, why you didn't take it. The build you'd have had coming would have paid off in a huge way.


There's more I could post, and will likely do so at a later date. I've gotta run for class but this gives you a snippet to work with in the mean time.

bump

The intention of this post is to move this thread back onto the first page of the forum.

Moves go through in 2 minutes

A bump from an unusual source. Spring 1911 moves went through.

It's gonna be pretty late in the season before I can post to the commentary.

S11: Although the commentary is late in it's coming, I tried getting on last night but the wife and I watched the Office on Netflix. This last year was easily one of my favorites. A majority of the moves were really well-planned and executed and no one made any real blunders as I had seen in years past. Even if you consider yourself to be on the losing side of things, you should at least see what I'm looking at as evidence that things are improving in gameplay.

#1 France: Some moves made by Germany will mean that you might not see any growth this year, although the possibility exists for a 1 center gain, but you've got a really solid spread for your units with no real gaps anywhere, and the fact that you and Russia are taking the last of German home centers means that he will no longer see future growth, even if he manages to gain a center someplace. Also, I'm thinking that you've started game-planning for next year as well. If not, there are a lot of elements to think about, and they need to be answered this build phase.

#2 Russia: While the south is a mix of things going on, my bet would be that Italy is working with you over Turkey, and if that's the case, then you're in pretty good shape. If not, then it means that Turkey is in the #2 spot while you get bumped the the #3. Given that Italy is your ally and not the Turk's, then things look really good for you down south. In the north is another matter. You have this problem that is regularly recurring, and one that I had warned you about several times so far, and it's the total dependence upon one country to get you ground. The move from Berlin to Kiel was great, but it was coupled with A Sil-Gal and Lvn-Mos. This means that you have a lone army amid a sea of other people's units and a vacant and easily accessible Berlin. This violates so many of my rules that it begs a stab. At any point, France could stab you by taking both Kiel and Berlin all in one year and you're powerless to do anything about it. You found yourself in this same situation in the south with Turkey. It indicates that you're the easily stabbable type because you're willing to shift all of your units away from your ally and simply trust that he won't stab you in the back in the process. This type of play is foolish at best. If I were in your shoes, I'd have used Silesia to move to Berlin in order to cover one of your centers and support a hold on your newly (not yet) acquired center where you expect to see ground. I'll reiterate a few of my personal rules that I've placed within this thread at more than one spot: the first is that "the only alliances to be had are the ones that can be forced". Simply put, this means that if you can't force your ally to be your ally, then he might stab you. There are no alliances in this game unless YOU can force there to be one. If your ally can't stab you, then he's got to ally with you unless someone he's working with can stab you. Preventing this often means having a mutual border fortified with some units to keep the peace, ensuring that he has someone else attacking him and keeping him busy, or ensuring that he has adequate growth to meet his needs. If these factors aren't in place, then what's to keep him from stabbing you for new ground? Stabs generally occur when a country you both are attacking are nearly wiped out and the other guy moves to get a jump on you before you get one on him, or when there's a dramatic shift in the alliance structure of the other sphere of power. The second rule that I want to state is that no one should be as close or closer to your centers than you are. In your case, both you and France are equally close to Berlin because you don't have a unit camped there. In addition to that, he has more units surrounding Kiel than you do and a stab would occur with France first taking Kiel and forcing you to retreat to Berlin. Then, since it's the only unit nearby and it has no support, he would take Berlin. You'd be at -2 and he'd be at +2 which is a net show of 4 units difference--a very lethal stab. If you haven't learned to not trust an ally yet (and it's happened twice this game where you got stabbed), then you need to learn it soon.

#3 Turkey: This last set of moves weren't at all what I'd have done. I don't think they were terrible, but they simply weren't productive. Taking Serbia with Trieste, while it couldn't be cut, it simply means that you've traded one center for another (assuming Italy is working with Russia). I'd have moved Trieste to Vienna and Albania to Serbia with Rumanian support. This would have given you a stronger line of units at Tri, Ser, Rum and forced R/I to either leave Tri alone or give up Vie, but not both. As it stands now, you might not get a build this next year (again, this is under the R/I assumption. If there is a T/I, then all of this does not apply). I do like the fleet movement. It's more secure and gives you room to do all kinds of nice things with your units. I think this next year might be a bit tough, and if you manage to come out at +1 center, then you'll be a pretty strong force going into next year.

#4 Germany: The loss of Kiel will come as a tragic blow but after this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone offer for you to become a janissary in return for helping them achieve a stronger position. The situation you're in offers the strongest janissary possible because future growth for you doesn't translate into more German units on the map and an ally has far less to fear about supporting you into various centers than would the janissary who still controls at least one home center. Clearly, helping someone else solo is far better than being eliminated, and it also gives you the chance to possibly participate in a draw, should that event occur. In general, I think your moves looked pretty good, even thought the results were less than stellar. You'll have to think through this next set of moves really carefully to ensure that you don't lose even more ground.

#5 Italy: Nice season once again. I expect that any alliance structure you're apart of will be seeing you with a build this season. If not, you should be arguing in favor of one. Your front line is almost entirely secure, with the exception of the ION, and you did something greater than an all-holds move which many dwindling countries resort to in the waning years of their existences. The slight surge of forward momentum could mean that you have a positive future, but you've still got a long way to go if you're going to participate in any draw situation. Keep yourself useful and make sure that you're talking to the other players more than any one else is. I'm hoping to see you come out of this at +1.

Just in time for the next phase to go through. Thanks for the commentary - even if you keep making me sound like a chump ; )

I'm curious about this statement though. If it's within your rules, could you elaborate:
"Clearly, helping someone else solo is far better than being eliminated"

It's just a view that I hold. I'd rather wind up with a survival, and so if I'm facing elimination, it might be better for me to totally ally with someone and help them solo if they can keep me alive for the survival than it is for me to fight everyone and get killed in the process. Tournament scoring is often by that same design. It's not necessarily a rule that I have, insomuch as it is simply the understanding that as long as you have pieces on the board, then you have a chance.

If you help someone solo and the game gets stalemated by opposition before the guy you're helping can solo, then you participate in a draw, especially if you're too valuable to eliminate.

F11: Some countries really scored this last season while others didn't quite meet the mark that I had for them.

#1 France: This last year you ended much like I predicted a few hours ago :) and while I anticipated the possibility of a build, I expected that it would come with Russian assistance. I also anticipated that you'd be sitting in Liverpool at this time with Russian support from the NAO. I'm not sure why that wasn't there. I like the NTH move since it gives you some more pressure points to hit against Germany and it sets you up next season for some success.

#2 Turkey: First, I must congratulate you on your success this last season. I honestly anticipated Russia applying more support orders for Italy than he did. In fact, not only did he not issue a support order for Italy to move, but he also issued a support order for you into Trieste. The dynamic in the south is very peculiar. I'm sure the press going around among the three of you is equally hard to follow. My gut is telling me that Russia misordered and there's still some enmity between the two of you. To that degree, I expect to see an army in Ankara this coming build phase.

#3 Russia: I'm sorry if you're feeling chumpy after reading my commentary, but there are certain factors that I think need to be in place when an assault is taking place, and stab prevention measures are a must. Certainly, it would have been really powerful for you to come out ahead in the number of centers you've got, especially under the knowledge that this game is likely going to see the elimination of at least 2 more powers. While those powers are rather easy to isolate at this point, that may not be true in future years. There were two areas that I'd have gone slightly differently (barring press). The first is that I'd have opted to support France into Liverpool. This would have put Germany down 2 centers and your ally up 1 and the incoming build would indicate whether or not France is going to continue to be your ally. The second is the assumed misorder and supports around Trieste. I'd have issued 2 support orders for Italy to move into Trieste to ensure that Turkey remains neutral and your (assumed) ally is +1 in the fight you're facing. This last year looked like a struggle for survival instead of a confident Russia rolling over his opponents. Not that your situation is bad, because the Lvn-Mos move will finally pay off since Turkey will have a newly built unit coming into play, but it also leaves Kiel isolated, and you can't possibly expect France to give you a new build someplace if you're simply gobbling up centers you can't manage. I'm curious where you anticipate your next build to come from. Hopefully France will be exceptionally generous in the year to come, because if you can come out with a build next year, then I think you will appropriately deserve a position in an endgame draw. If not, then I'd be rather nervous about the circumstances. You did a really great job getting over the large mountain of what was your downward spiral, now it's just trying to get over that next little hump and seeing some progress.

#4 Germany: This is going to be a difficult disband. The disband that you select will determine where you lose ground next year. I expect that you won't hold on to Lvp much longer and the other center(s) you lose will be entirely dependent on what you disband next year. I'm going to assume that it will come down to Skaggerak or Helgoland Bight, neither of which is comfortable. I also hope that you're talking to whoever you can, because the tides could turn depending on what you're offering.

#5 Italy: Clearly not the year I expected out of you, and not by any fault of your own. Also, the path forward isn't a very clear one. There's not a whole lot that I can really comment on that hasn't been talked to death, but I'm hoping that you've got some plans to manipulate the scene. When I play, and even more so with Italy, I've found that when you're in a crunch, if you want an ally in a certain country that is currently not being very friendly, then you talk to his neighbors and talk them into applying enough pressure on said country that they have no real choice but to work with you. Since diplomacy is the key to success, talking to everyone on the board is the only thing that will get you out of your situation. It might mean promising the moon, threatening, lying or convincing someone that you've got the key to their success. You spend time and break up alliances that you want to see dissolve and build alliances that you think will give you a higher chance of success. In many a game, I've talked to members of the opposite sphere as myself and asked them to help me find an ally and that I would do the same for them. At this point, you'll have to gauge where your best chances of survival and gain are going to come from. If you can gain a few more centers, then you become someone with a lot of leverage to every country instead of a speed bump. My bet is that once Germany's gone or nearly so, you'll be in trouble if you aren't already.


There are some things to look for in the coming year or two. The first is what happens in the north. I believe that things can go down one of two ways: either Germany will be eliminated and France and Russia will work to tie up loose ends on whatever goals they have set for themselves, or it will be that Germany will become the janissary to one of the two nations who will use him for heightened power. I won't go into this a whole lot because I'd like to save some certain comments depending on what happens and I don't want a possible spoiler alert.

In the east, we have a different dynamic going on and one group will eventually gain some ground. The diplomacy in this portion of the world is far from over, and if I were the three nations involved, I'd be talking quite a bit about some very solid and concrete plans to shift things a bit quicker than turtle-mode. The longer it takes to eliminate a country, the nastier things tend to become. Prior neutral parties suddenly become enemies, new wars erupt and new alliances are formed. These tend to occur at the demise (or near demise) of a country and they often impact those that are further from the action. For example, in a new game, if the west eliminates England earlier than the east can eliminate a country, F and G will have new plans. F might swing south and hit Italy, at which point, he's going to be talking to Italy's enemies or he might move against Germany and be talking to Russia. On the flip side, if the east eliminates a country first, then it reshapes things going on and some western powers have a dynamic to think about going into the years to come. The similar holds true in this case. Germany is going down, and may continue to do so. If his candle snuffs out in the next 2 years, then some things will inevitably change in the east and the three eastern nations had better be prepared for what changes.

Golly...this has got to be the pausing-est game ever (: \)

I suppose that is better than the most NRM-est game ever.

Very true. Even though this game has been paused pretty frequently, I must say, it turned out to be far more successful than the first SoW this season. No real CD's or NMR's (barring one early on) and everyone seems to be sticking it out. I'm really looking forward to the endgame and seeing some final EOG's. I wanna thank all of the TA's and students for this game, because you guys really made it exciting for me to be a part of.

bump

What's going on here? I'm a bit occupied at the moment with setting up the Masters and a few...rather frustrating games as well as RL. Sorry I dropped the ball as TD for a little while. Also, thank you Tru Ninja for an awesome job.

The build phase for 1911 is about to finalize and the game has been rather difficult to simply put into a few sentences. The "alliance" structure (if you could state that) has been extremely fluid and has shifted year-by-year and no singular alliance has strong for a good portion of the game barring the French-German one which fizzled out years ago. Everyone in the game has been at a high point (barring 1?) and a low point in terms of its power.

Depending on whether or not someone tries to solo, the game has a minimum of 2 more years to go before consolidating if everything goes picture-perfect. If not, it could easily extend into 1916 and beyond if the powers involved try to reduce the game to a 3-way endgame.

I'll comment briefly on the builds, especially in light that neither the Turkish build nor the German disband was what I predicted and I've been spot-on a vast majority of the game. This lends me to believe that I understand the flow of the game for most of the seasons but this last season is a bit of an oddity.

Builds and disbands often indicate quite a bit about what a player is planning, who he's talking to (or could be talking to) and where he's going in the years to come. Often, most countries have a nice mix of fleets to armies with the tendency to produce armies because travel across land is much easier than travel around land. As I stated in another thread, most countries have about 30 to 40% of their units as fleets with the exception of Austria and Germany who have a maximum of 5 fleets at the end of the game and more often less than that. A given country will build units to suit where they see their next areas of expansion are versus what they currently have on the board. People also determine builds based on the units their targets have.

As an example, I'll comment in-depth about the 1901 builds because they were pretty plentiful and things were pretty fresh.

England: I predicted a fleet in London and either a fleet in Lvp or army in Edi. The fleet in London is the most logical because it can be turned against either target rather fluidly and doesn't necessarily indicate an intended target. The army build would mean that he's going to try to convoy it somewhere and since he's already made landfall in Denmark, he might try to get in at Holland or more specifically Belgium. However, England followed through with a second fleet build at Liverpool which meant that he's going to move against France. This also tells me that tensions are high for England and that there has been a fallout between France and England. If I were Russia at this piont, I'd have immediately jumped on the bandwagon at this point to either confiscate Norway and join the English assault or support England and attack Germany while the getting is good.

France: I predicted a fleet in Brest for certain and likely a Parisian army with the possibility of a fleet in Marseilles. I expected that if France and England were on pretty good terms, the army build would be necessary to move on Germany and Paris would give him a good spot for him to place it because it does all of the things an army in Marseilles does and covers Picardy as well. The doulbe-fleet build told me that there was going to be war between France and England and that neither of them were caught unaware by it. The second fleet also told me that he trusted Germany quite a bit and the decision was not a last-minute call and that they'd been talking about plans for quite some time.

Germany: I predicted a fleet in Kiel and army in Berlin and Germany built the other way around. The fleet is often an arbitrary build because it does the same thing as a fleet in Kiel except that it can move to the Helgoland Bight which is a great spot to storm the North. The army build is more what I concern myself with. If Germany builds 2 fleets, then he's definitely anti-English but the army build means that he's still going to stake a claim on the land areas because there's only so much an extra army can do early on unless it can get convoyed. The army build is often used to stack the line along the French border or to move to Denmark, but since England controlled Denmark at this point, Germany was going to want it back.

Italy: I predicted a fleet in Naples and army in Venice which is what the board saw. I also thought the possibility of a double-army was out there, albeit unlikely. Italy often needs another fleet early on because it's a stronger choice all-round. Like England, the army on the Peninsula is more defensive, but here Italy was on the attack. The ION is his greatest sea zone and it needs to be occupied. The army build is a no-brainer because he's going to continue to assault Austria, which means that he needs to get into Tyrolia. He may not move there initially but if his target is future gains in Austria, an army is the way to go. Also, a double-fleet is a bit too much here because there's only so many places to put a fleet in the south.

Austria: An army in Budapest was the only option.

Turkey: I predicted an army build since I saw things as a I/T and not a I/R. The army would have been able to move against Russia for a future build but when a fleet came into play, it felt out of position.

Russia: two armies were the only choice available for the country. As a general idea, fleet builds in Sevastopol are anti-Turkish because of their limited ability to be put to use against Austria and builds in St Pete show that he has interests in the north.


Back to this game: Neither build I predicted came true and this often indicates that my vision for how the game will flow differs from how other players think it should go. I think the players involved should try reading the board, read my prior commentary and try to piece together what's going on, because the builds and moves are your ears into other people's conversations. Good luck in the year to come for all players still playing and I eagerly await the finalization of Spring moves.

Spring moves have been processed, despite the overspilling disks.

But Italy is nowhere to be found...