Bump

Bump

A07: Several "not so grand" moves made this an interesting year. I had really expected to see the map in a new light, but it just goes to show that not everything is what it appears.

#1 Germany: Sealing the top spot on the map for a long time, I have to give a big congrats to the German player and his TA on this one. You'll have at least one more build coming at the end of this season as it looks like all of the threats you saw last season have since vanished. The very surprising retreat by the Russian and the French all-holds have set you into a really nice spot whether the game ends sooner or later. Either way, I'd be willing to bet a hefty share of diplomacy points to bet you'll take the top spot in any draw that would occur from here on out. My philosophy on draws has changed over the years and my initial belief was that draws were for those that can't win. I now see them as a different kind of positive end and in many cases are just as good as a win--if you end with the top spot on the map. Many tournaments are based on draw placement and the guy who draws on top does well for himself. The question now, is whether or not to try for the solo. Clearly, if this is the case, there will be some manipulation going on behind the scenes. If everything continues to go straight-forward, I expect to see a draw but with the German player out front. In terms of a French campaign, I still expect to see it in the future and with yet another build coming, it'll make it easier to gain ground.

#2 Russia: Not sure what was talked about last season but clearly you were uncomfortable with something that you saw. You went from having a really nice spot to simply having a jumble of units in really strange positions. Not that you're caught with your pants down in a stab, but certainly the retreat from German soil is going to change some things going forward. I'm also not entirely sure what Rum-Ukr is really all about. I've mentioned it before just prior to a French stab and I'll mention it here: it's generally a good rule of thumb to hold the idea that you don't want anyone else's units closer or as close to your centers as you are. This is usually a precursor to a stab. Remember the adage "good fences make good neighbors" and in this game, it's that good borders make good neighbors. On a side note, you'll probably secure Vienna this year which will net you a much needed build but you'll have some eyeballing going on with an out-of-place Turkish army in a rather sensitive area.

#3 Turkey: You're in a pretty sweet spot although I'm not sure what the Smy-Arm move was all about. It certainly doesn't build bridges but then again, not seeing press in these types of situations makes making assumptions a rather poor choice. I suspect that you may not have a build this year but depending on how things turn out, you might get one after all. Only the fall moves will tell. I suspect that this year will be about position. Love the fleet-shifting. A bit expected, but since it was completely successful, you deserve kudos. Not the way I'd have done it either, but I can't complain. You're successfully out of the box and free to roam and I'm guessing that the breath of fresh air tastes like none you've ever had before.

#4 France: The number 4 spot was a tough one to call. I'm not sure what to make of your position or Italy's either. On the one hand, Germany was forced to back off a bit and you won't lose any centers this year but on the flip side, you're still without an ally and you submitted all holds this season. Again, I'm not sure what type of diplomacy is going on behind the scenes but holding and supporting holds with all of your units did absolutely nothing. By now, in your situation, I'd have pooled all my efforts into working with Italy and I'd have been pressing the English Island awfully hard. All holds simply makes your opponent's job easier and I can only hope that Germany sent you some press along the lines of being friends again for you to submit those kind of moves. You've still got a season left before you're back under more pressure but I don't see a lot of great things in store. Hopefully the fall will see you with a little more life because I really expected you to be doing better at this point, and as I mentioned earlier, for as hard as you worked in the first half of the game, you really deserve a better spot.

#5 Italy: As I posted in the French commentary, this spot was hard to call. To the plus, you did more than France this last season but to the negative, you'll probably lose a center this season. A lot of your moves were expected and I'll state that part of the reason you're in this spot isn't entirely your fault but I chalk a lot of it up to 1) not keeping tabs on the board and 2) predictable movement. This season was really predictable and it allowed Turkey to filter in some of his fleets so that you now risk the possible loss of either Trieste or the Ionian (but it's not a guarantee). In this type of situation, you have to begin thinking outside the box. Diplomacy has a lot to do with knowing your opponent and the game comes down to one of two things:

A) Is your opponent a straight-thinker. What this means is, how does your opponent get from one goal to another. Does he move in a bee-line path straight for it or does he take his time and jockey for a better position? If he makes bee-line moves, he's pretty predictable and simple supports will work. Many players at the beginner level and intermediate level have this type of play style. In veteran games, however, and among top players, many will take their time and move in a way they know is a little more secure and sound even if it doesn't get them something right up front. Sometimes it's better to take a non center zone that will get you into a better position before making the strike.

B) How does your opponent think? This has to do more with meta-cognition. Many players will simply attack without trying to 'out-think' their opponents. This is very true at the elementary level and fairly true at the intermediate level. Some opponents try to anticipate your movements and move accordingly. Some anticipate that you're going to be a pretty straight-forward mover (the bee-line type from above) and will move pretty simply. Others, however, will attempt to anticipate your moves based on a plethora of possibilities and make their moves based on the way they think you'll move.

The best players in your situation, will begin to anticipate what their opponent is anticipating that you'll do and move to counter based on their counter-movements. From here on, this is what you're going to have to do, if you can do it at all. This type of thinking isn't without its risks and anticipating incorrectly can spell disaster but when it's correct, then you essentially control your opponent instead of him controlling you.

You're not out of it yet, and I'd say there's still a chance that you won't lose anything this year but based on what I've seen, I still think you'll lose a center, but not at all likely two. Diplomacy will be the key to get you out of your situation.


Things to look for: Turkey is going to be the primary key in this next season. A lot could happen depending on what goes down. I don't want to get a whole lot into it yet, but I might have a ton to say next season.

bump? back to being the only prof?

Gotta say though, you've made an incredible job of it so far! Thanks for all the efforts you put into this. I hope that the other prof will add his thoughts to yours soon.

Thanks C. I appreciate it :)

+1 Cachimbo (and Tru Ninja I guess)

Really enjoyed the SoW. I look almost as forward to the commentary as I do to the resolves. If I could play all my games with your comments, I would. So, thanks.

Bumpity

I'm surprised... Why am I still alive? I expected to be dead ages ago...

You are the country that lived.

Thanks a ton Yonni.

@BG: I'm surprised you're still "alive" too, although a bit disappointed that you haven't done anything outside of hold orders (if you can call that living). I've heard stories of people that were reduced to 1 unit and came back for the win (Edi). You've had opportunities to work with France and Russia up until this point and passed it by. I'm not trying to be a jerk but simply pointing out on the missed possibilities you've had so that you can learn from them.

F07: Very little happened this season, which is a big sigh of relief for several nations. There also appears to be some shifting in who is working with who (expected based on the spring moves). Only one country is down a unit while one country is up a unit but overall it was pretty even-kill.

#1 Germany: Very good movements this last season by playing it safe and taking the lone build instead of stretching yourself beyond capacity to hope for a second. The continued retreat of Russia proved beneficial but with your advances it could mean that you're taking on a bit more than you can chew. Along the west, you're back into a struggle and seeing why I consider France as one of what I've dubbed the P3 countries (Russia, Turkey, France - the three most powerful on the map in terms of win and draw percentages). France has this ability to survive and cut off enemies from advancing and without an appropriate naval force to go behind the English Island, facing him head on could take years to make progress. Clearly, with Russia embroiled in a turn of events in the east, you'll have some decisions to make and I believe your builds will answer that question (although I won't go into detail about this for fairness-sake). I can see next year turning up an additional build (highly likely), possibly two (much less likely) and you're beginning to face a similar situation that Russia faced several years ago, although your situation is a little different in that I think you'll pull through quite a bit easier. For builds, I primarily anticipate an army in Berlin but a fleet in Kiel certainly isn't out of the question. There will definitely *not* be an army build in Kiel.

The second, third and fourth spots on the board are rather muddled. I try to place myself in each player's situation as if I was going to take over the country and decide where I'd rather be and where I'd rather not be. Any of the following countries could be in any order and so I'm going to list them all as tied for 2nd through 4th position and simply point out reasons why.

#2-4 Russia: Of all the countries in the cropping, I'm most hesitant to put you at #2 because your proverbial boat is beginning to take on water. Italy hasn't backed off, Turkey is making an about-face and Germany is on the fence. If the three of them continue in the path they're on, it will spell a breakdown for your country. The biggest downfall is that you haven't had a recent build which makes you a prime target for assault. Your biggest weakness, however, is that you've got a ton of holes in your defenses. What started to look nice turned sour the moment one of your armies moved into Silesia and it was continued when you backed units away from centers along your Turkish border where he had armies stationed. This means that Rumania, Sevastopol, Warsaw and St Pete are all hot spots that need to be tied down, and Russia is the sort of country that could be likened to a glass sword (rather thick glass). While you're cutting down your opponents, you're a fearful thing to be up against and cuts you make are swift and lethal but once you begin to break apart, it's nearly impossible to patch back together again. Although things are tense right now, you've still got things that you can negotiate on and I expect that you'll pull out whatever you can to make sense of some things. I'm curious about what you were planning with Bohemia. The army could have been moved to Tyrolia to apply more pressure or back to Silesia to return home but moving to Vienna doesn't make a lot of sense. I understand that it was likely to cut support from an Italian move to Budapest, but if the move to Rumania would have been successful, Italy would have been in Bud any way you cut it. As it was, this year was probably more of a sigh of relief than a bad note and I think that if you plan your moves well next year that you won't be out anything.

Italy: A big part of me could see you in the #2 spot but some of me wants to see you in the #3 spot. You've managed to produce a neutral Turk (or maybe helpful one) and now are looking at a positive future. You have a nice tight front line (barring Tyrolia) and if things go really well for you, you might be in Budapest this time next year. The biggest down side to your situation is that things are still really tense in the east. By now, two individuals should have really been working solidly together and I'm still not seeing that. On the biggest bright side, the sky is the limit right now for you in terms of allies. Turkey has backed off showing that he wants to work with you but when he hit Russia, he gave R a good reason to begin to work with you and of all the positions, I envy that aspect the most.

Turkey: A very strange set of moves this last year, ones that I'm not entirely sure I agree with. The move to Arm tipped off a potential stab and caused Russia to guard himself against the possible threat and it prevented you from coming away with something positive. In addition, you made a choice to take from Italy and then try to take from Russia and thus you have both hands in two different cookie jars--something that no one likes. I'd love to be able to say that backing off Italy was the best choice but I can't say that because it means that you give Russia and Italy a reason to work with each other and retake land you had stolen and are trying to steal from them. My advice is often to take on only one enemy at a time and if you're going to take on two opponents, then you need to count your units, then count theirs. You ought to have more units than the both of them combined. Here's the reason:
Part of a good offense is having a good defense (John Madden) and at any given time, you cannot devote 100% of your units to attacking. Some are out of the combat but advancing (newly built units, for example), some are holding a border or keeping peace between you and a neighbor, and some are attacking an enemy. It's usually true that you can devote anywhere between 40% and 60% of your units to gaining new soil. In your situation, this is 4 units while two simply maintain what you currently have. Anytime someone is defending, they can devote anywhere between 30% and 100% of their units to defense and if your 60% attacking is equal to their combined defenders, then you can afford to attack two people at once. If not, it will only spell bad news for you if you try to flip-flop between someone as an enemy and someone as an ally. Often when you switch up a relationship, gaining an enemy as an ally often comes with a bribe of sorts (ie: "I know I took 'x' from you. I'll return it immediately if you help me into 'y'). It's more of a peace-offering than anything, but in your situation, I'm not seeing that. I'm simply seeing that you took Serbia and Greece and then backed off. I believe that this will spell problems in your near future. For builds, I expect to see a fleet in Smyrna. I won't go into why simply because this is a public post. I don't anticipate an army in Ankara but a fleet there is a possibility since the Black Sea will be a clear target in the spring.

#5 France: The loss of a unit is to be expected but I must say that I love the convoy. This gives you the ability to choose which unit to disband instead of giving your opponent the choice. You're still not out and your position is like a deeply rooted tree stump and you're not going to be pried out easily. There was a situation I was in playing as France quite a long time ago that I like to use to encourage French players in a similar situation as you're facing now. I was playing against stiff competition and found myself without allies and fighting a 3-front war against Germany, England and Italy. Germany had broken the line much like is in your situation and England was threatening Brest while Italy was bouncing all over the place in the south. I sent repeated messages to England and Italy suing for peace and managed to hold them off until they saw that they wouldn't make progress. I later talked one of them into neutrality and one of them into an alliance and by the game's end I was the person taking part in a draw while I saw the elimination of two of my aggressors. That ability to survive against all "odds" is what will help you now. If you can continue to hold the line and stalemate your opponent long enough, help will come. It could be in the form of an Italian fleet or even two eastern powers who want a place in a draw instead of nice survival positions, but eventually it will come. How much of you is left when that time comes is to be determined. For this season, I believe we'll see a disband at Brest.

England: The game has finally gotten you to move. Although you'll be out pretty soon, you could still play a vital role in the survival of another country. It's also entirely possible (albeit slim) that you could manage to hang on to another center, but it won't be Edi.


Things to look for: The east is still a hot bed of tension and this time it's up to Italy to decide the fates of the 3 nations involved in a pendulum style "alliance" structure.

Ahhh, fleet in Kiel. I like the call.

bump

bump

Aag! Another pause...

I'd bump this thread but I'm too lazy.

I'm really sorry about that, it was sort of a last minute decision. France also had to leave for the weekend though, so I think it was worthwhile to pause.

no worries here. I'm not really complaining and I don't really have much stake in the game itself, merely the commentary. Take your time and get back to it when you're ready.

Guess it's time to put in some S08 thoughts. There were quite a number of unfortunate blunders in this last season and these were made by several countries which could have some very adverse effects in the coming season(s).

#1 Germany: Very bizairre movements that show that you're pretty comfortable taking on two countries at one time. I think you'll find that you're biting off more than you can chew, even with Italy's help. The post I gave to Turkey in the prior season is equally applicable to you, as well. Russia has the capacity to hold you off if he wants, and France will continue to apply pressure from the other side and if Italy moves in from the south, then you're in some real trouble. The goal anyone should have is to limit themselves to only 1 enemy at any given time. This allows you to maintain your focus to one area until it is necessary to change direction. Clearly, there's some worry about the flowing Juggernaut, but the fear should be less than what it currently is since Russia has backed out of your region and remained clear. In addition, it will still be some time before Italy falls. I really hope that the decision to attack Russia was born out of a R/T fear rather than the opportunity to snag a center or two. I would not have moved on Russia at this stage, but rather filled gaps in my defenses, secured Edi for a build, and not lost anything to France. After the next build, it would have been better to take France down a notch (or get into position to be able to) and then take on Russian centers. A move this early might cost you in the long run. Second, I really expected the fleet to move west so that the NTH could move in behind France so that you'd gain some very clear centers in the years to come. Instead, you moved it in the completely opposite direction to focus your attention in things that didn't really matter quite yet. Your fleet could have been used to breach the stalemate between you and France but instead it turned out to open the gates and let France in. I don't believe you'll be seeing any builds in the coming year, but I must say, the moves will wind up relieving pressure from Italy. Last, what's with the hold in the NTH? This could have meant that France could have used the Channel to support a move from Picardy to Belgium and that would have succeeded, but now, with the hold order, you've lost valuable ground with nothing to show for it except for the gain in Edi to keep you neutral.

#2-4: We still have 3 countries in the mix that need to produce results, one way or another.

Russia: Rough spot, but not a terrible situation. The biggest problem I have with your movements last season is that darn army in Ukraine doing nothing. The hold order means that a) you trusted Turkey to back out of danger zones completely when he could have moved himself into two of your centers putting a real hurt on you, b) there's now a gap in your defenses that has Budapest with the ability to get into some really sensitive areas and c) now with the attack from Germany, it's going to have to be dedicated to covering Warsaw so that things don't continue to go sour. As a general rule, I feel that if you can order a unit to do something, it should do something. The other problem I have with your moves is that Turkey might not make any ground in the following year or two and this type of non-movement many times results in a change of sides. If Italy can stalemate Turkey for an entire year, he could conceivably convince him to turn on you instead. It's a possibility that you might go down a center this year. Hopefully next year will be a little more kind to you.

Turkey: More of a front-runner than the other two nations, your biggest issues are the flip-flopping that caused you to lose a year of momentum and that you're facing a really well-wedged Italian that might not let you out anywhere soon. The biggest benefit that you have is that you are also well-wedged and have the least fear of losing units in the coming years. This season is going to come down to a guessing game to try to get a leg up on Italy. I still don't see a build for you this year, if it comes from Italian soil, but you may be in a better spot in the next.

Italy: You had some give and take in centers this season and to some degree I really like the spot you're in. You've got Germany putting pressure on Russia in the north and you've got an army in a really great spot that could wind up retreating to anywhere. On the flip-side, you've got an entirely exposed northern border. In your situation, I'd have rather had a unit in Greece than Budapest but I certainly can't complain about where you're sitting. Things could go either way for the results in this next season meaning that you could either remain steady or lose and if you do lose, you could lose a little or lose a lot. Good luck to you in the next year.

#5 France: Not a bad spot and out of everyone on the map, I expect you to be in the best spot in the coming year from where you came out this year. You look to be gaining some traction. Too bad you didn't move with Pic and support with the Channel. Your move was a gamble and if G had moved to the Channel to cut support, you'd be back-pedaling just to maintain control of what you currently have. As such, kudos to actually getting somewhere and turning around things for the positive. I expect you to come out ahead at the end of this year with a build.

Things to look for: If Italy loses ground this season, it will mean that some things will begin to break apart. Italy's losing ground will likely mean that he will lose control of some vital areas rather than losing centers, but these losses are often morale-boosters that allow opponents to stay the course. Also, if Germany gains centers, things could continue to look ugly.

Back to the front! Bump for Autumn moves

F08: Very nice turn of events for a few countries. Others are seeing the beginning of a struggle.

#1 Germany: A very tentative position, now having to lose a center and facing an encroaching Russian. I also strongly disagree with the series of holds along the west. A Ruh--holds, A Hol--holds, A Mun--holds. This is one of two things: (a) a very poor choice of orders or (b) an attempt to secure a French ally while you move eastward.
To discuss--(a) if this is merely holds assuming that France was only going to hold, it's a pretty poor choice of orders. It assumes that France will simply support holds across the board without making any daring attempt to make progress across the line. Second, it gives F a lot of opportunity to do anything to screw your game, and he clearly did by forcing you to disband a unit that you're not going to want to lose. At this stage in the game, a country needs to be solidly growing or preparing for a draw.
(b) Securing a French ally--I'm really hoping that this is what it's meant to be, but I'm still dubious with the showing made by France to cut support in the NTH. France won't be bought so easily, especially in light of the unit difference between you and second place. It's certainly a difficult thing to stab an ally, fight against him for the next few years, turn on someone else and then attempt to patch things up with the guy you stabbed years ago, especially when he makes a rebound and snags one of your centers. It's not impossible but certainly requires the right bit of conversation and some promises that will be difficult to deliver.
These aren't the only issues you've got going right now, either. Another move I wish would have been different is the support order by the NTH. A better move would have been to convoy London to Edi with the NTH and support with Lvp. Diplomacy has only a few different moves, but many of them are overlooked because they're not the norm, and these types of uncharacteristic moves are stronger than the more common ones. The first is when defending, using units to cut supports instead of issuing support holds because where a support hold can be cut, a move to cut support cannot be. The second is what's seen here. Convoying and supporting the convoy is sometimes better than using the fleet to support a move, because again, it cannot be cut, it has to be dislodged.
Another issue that you'll have to face that while you're making some progress at St Pete, you'll have to deal with the fact that Russia (a) has a build coming and (b) has a back door hole to your home centers that will cause you to possibly have to decide whether to defend against the French or defend against the Russian--a situation that no one likes to be in. I'm guessing that you'll begin reassessing your situation and reducing the amount of pressure you're facing which may or may not happen. For disbands, I expect that it will be an army from the English Isle or the fleet in the Gulf of Bothnia.

#2 Russia: Pulling ahead a bit, you've begun to out class some of the other nations. This next year will be a make-or-break year for you with Germany staring St Pete down but you've also got him in a tense spot. Depending on the German disband, it could mean the difference between a bumpy ride and a smooth one. I don't have anything negative to say about the moves and in the long run, the net you a build coming in at St Pete. You've got a pretty good alley for your units to begin moving but be careful and don't over extend yourself or you'll find yourself back to the point of disbanding in the next few years. For builds, I predict an army. A fleet would be helpful, but only in the north. The army is the only thing that makes sense.

#3 France: Huge leap for you this last season, you had a really good series of moves. I especially enjoyed the fleet cutting support at the NTH which gave you +1 unit from the German center coupled with a -1 unit for your enemy. Anytime you get this kind of outcome, it's a total win. Second, I also have to congratulate you on giving your southern fleet the ability to begin joining the fight. You'll have the opportunity to either join along the German once again or cross the stalemate line for further progress but either way you'll see some progress. I also like Bur-Bel with Pic support. It was a gamble where Germany could have supported himself into Burgundy, but it was a gamble that would still mean that you maintain the Bel build, and a move that I would have issued as well because the benefits outweigh the risks. For builds, I'm certain that you'll have a fleet at Brest coming in.

#4 Turkey: Stalemated for another season, things are looking bleak. Eventually the tide will break but it's unclear whether it will break soon enough to make a difference. I'm sure you're toying with the notion of turning on Russia and working with the Italian but a bigger part of you wants to continue working with Russia because you fear the outcome of switching sides. I'm not sure what your future would hold but in the season to come, I'd be finding a means to guarantee myself a build, because not getting a build for another year could mean rough things in a game that shifts like shadows under a flickering candlelight.

#5 Italy: Not a horrid year, but by no means a comfortable one. You played things safe, which is understandable, but to some degree, it could have been avoided. I have the fear that next year you'll lose another center and opponents will be moving in on you even more. It's time you found an ally and not merely neutral players to surround yourself with. Last season, if I were to have changed anything with orders issued, I would have opted to use Budapest to attack Vienna and support with Trieste. As I said, I understand the more defensive moves, but this would have forced Russia to possibly lose Vie in lieu of gaining Bud (as here) but the moves by R and T should inidicate the level of cooperation between the two, something that could be played on in the near future. Not having to worry about disbands could be a blessing in that it gives you more opportunity to foucs on press with the other nations to try to turn the series of events you've been facing.


Things to look for: What happens with Germany next year will determine the fates of the rest of the map to a considerable degree. Italy losing ground last season means that R has some momentum but I can't necessarily say the same for T. part of the 'breaking apart of Italy' was the possibility of T getting into Alb which didn't happen and T could be getting a bit frustrated at the slow progress. Depending on what happens with G, some of that frustration could change things, even for him so far away.

2 days and 11 hours to go before the next commentary

Ouch, a disband in Ruhr. This can only mean one of two things...

Figured I would bump this before I go to bed..

BenGuin, you wanna show up for one last go at it?

Morning bump

Sorry all, I tried posting to the SoW last night but my internet went down due to incomming storms. I've got some minutes right now so I'll put it together.

A09: My overall thoughts on this were that things went pretty much the way I anticipated they would with F/G/R but I and T had some things that really surprised me. More to come below.

#1 Germany: This becomes the trouble with striking everyone around you and then hoping to find a friend in the mix. France has clear aspirations on continuing the assault and since he's made headway into Ruhr, you've got trouble. As Germany, the only way to stalemate France and get him to do what you want is to make sure his armies stay west of the Bel(or Hol)/Ruh/Mun line. It requires 3 units for either country to maintain adequate control, which given the fact that you had 10, supplying 3 for the cause wouldn't have been much of an effort to keep F out. Now, as it stands, you'll really have to try to guess at the kind of player France's TA is in order to determine what will happen next because you've got a lot of places to strike, with critical locations at Lon, NTH, and Mun to say the least and others include the IRI. The loss of Holland will give France another unit to move against you, and you're losing the naval advantage by moving so much against Russia. I believe that you'll continue to fall apart, but having a net gain in this season could change things. It's possible that you'll remain even while losing key areas at home. I also don't expect that your top position will be maintained much after this year. In terms of your fight against R to the east, you've got additional tremendous pressure that will cause you to have to overextend yourself this next season. Overthinking things will be a real problem. I will try not to post too much here because I don't want to influence things too much in my commentary but the end-game is beginning to take shape and your part in it is less and less viewable.

#2 France: A very nice last season for you and you have beautiful sights set for the next. Breaching the stalemate line along your western border will pay dividends. One word of warning, however, is something similar to what we saw with other countries in the past. Remember that getting too greedy in centers could mean problems maintaining what you currently are getting. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. As it is, your moves this last season were easily the best on the map and I guarantee that you'll have more coming in the years to come.

#3/4 Russia and Turkey: These two have done a pretty solid job as a paired Juggernaut and the trust has been pretty instrumental.

Russia: Losing St Pete is a rather unavoidable circumstance. It's the easiest location to lose and if a western power wants it bad enough, there's not much you can do to stop them from taking it. Your military presence in other key areas, however, is a really nice touch. What you do with the fleet in the north could indicate some things and currently, it's giving you some extra flexibility. I also don't expect you to get Berlin this season but I'm pretty certain that you'll be camping in it in the next. Start thinking about the unit you'll be disbanding this season because it's not going to be an easy choice.

Turkey: Not a bad flow of moves for you. Trieste was a pretty nice steal, although I'm often dubious about how secure it is when someone else has to help make sure you keep it. You're still too dependent on Russian assistance at this stage and that's always a potentially fatal spot to be in. You'll come out even again this season but with possibly better footing depending on what you choose to do this season. The build left over from the disband will help out but it's unfortunately coming in at home a full year from combat. This will continue to slow you down while you're hammering Italy.

#5 Italy: Not a terrible year. I love the spot you've put Turkey in with the loss of Greece. You've been slowing Turkey down for quite a while and he's done nothing for 3 full years. Continue to hang in there, the game isn't over. You've really shown one of Italy's biggest strengths in terms of its defensive capability. Had a few things been different in prior seasons, you'd be sitting pretty nicely. It's also still possible to turn this game into a 4-way with you involved but don't neglect negotiations. If you're not talking much to the board, you should be.


Things to look for: Does Germany gain or break even this year? This will determine the strength his opponents have going into next season. Also, the Russian disband could mean some things. I'm pretty certain I know the unit he'll want to disband but it's different than the one I think he should select, but it's still early to tell.