^more likely.

Ah, didn't see that Italy was #3 too.

Bump for builds.

Bump

Sorry, to clarify, Russia is #2, Italy is #3. There was quite a bit of tossing around those two countries for me because they both have so many strong points which make them good contenders for the second position on the map. I could argue that France is also #3 but I'd be hesitant to bump Russia or Italy down even further. It's a very tight race among the top 4 spots.

Also, there was another typo about Germany's building an army in Munich. Clearly he wouldn't be able to do so.

I'll comment a little about the builds, since I have the time:

France: Tough choice for disbands but a natural choice since you have to condense your units and protect your home. To everyone who is unsure in times of disbanding, its often (but not always) a better choice to disband units further away from your home centers than it is to disband ones closer to them. The times its not advisable to do so is when you have a secure homeland with an extra unit to spare there or you really need a unit behind enemy lines mucking around. If France would have had a fleet in the Baltic or an army around the Bohemia area, it's better to hang on to those units since they stretch the defense of your enemy. As it is, if you have gaps in your own defenses and too many units spread out, ditch one far away and pull some units back but never reduce yourself to simply defending unless you know for certain that you have help on the way.

Germany: Good call for builds since France is on the retreat and you control the stalemate line. A fleet could have also filled the hole in the North Sea without compromising the Island centers and would have also allowed Edi to wrap behind the Island and strike at the MAO. I still would have gone with the army given that you will have several enemies on you.

Russia: Unless your army is moving south, I would have deferred a build. It's going to take a full year or more to get it into position to do anything against Germany (if that's your target) and a build next year in warsaw does the same thing.

Italy will come soon.

Hazzah! #2!

badump bump

Back to the front

Congrats to Yonni (Russia) who has successfully defended himself in front of his Master's Thesis committee yesterday!

bump

Thanks Cachimbo.
Also, Spring moves are done.

S05: A very rough year overall with one player in real control while the others have to mop up loose ends. The top spot will change after this year and we will see a new leader on the board, although this leader won't have the dominant number of centers.

#1 Germany (tentatively): Not a bad position to see yourself in. You have a hole to fill against the French but I see some blockading coming up for you since you won't be facing France with any help. Your biggest mountain to climb has to do with staying inside the French borders while (a) smashing his roaming army and (b) continuing to gain builds. This next season is going to really cause you to think about the board quite a bit before settling on some moves but I suspect that you'll come away with a build after the smoke clears. Continue to read the board because the game isn't over yet.

#2 Russia: You're in a very strong position and if things go as I expect them to, you'll be back in the top spot once again. You'll definitely be seeing a build at Vienna and either Trieste or Serbia while your Turkish cohort will see some gains as well. I also wouldn't be surprised to see that northern fleet leaving its dock sometime soon. You've definitely secured a draw spot if that's what you're wanting. There's not a whole lot else to say here other than that you had a really nice year this year.

#3 Italy: I'll comment first on your builds. Sorry I didn't get to this sooner but here it is for better or for worse. Needless to say, I disagree with the fleet build. I'm not sure if this was accidental but it was the worst build you could have made. A fleet in Venice only has the option of moving to the Adriatic and out to the Ionian or maybe on to Trieste, but even there, it cannot support armies further inland. A fleet at naples would have been a better fleet build by far since it gets to where it needs to be much faster than a build at Naples. As it is, though, you already control the dominant navy in the south with fleets in superior positions compared to Turkey and the best build would have been an army at Venice. It's got flexibility and can protect your (now) front line. I expected the stab and tried to steer clear of mentioning it last season so as not to sway the movement but with the F/G falling apart, you were the next logical choice. Your units were butted up against the French forces in the west with your rear exposed. A very late Juggernaut will now have a hay-day with your Austrian centers. As I mentioned earlier, it should have been you controlling Budapest and not the Russians in order to prevent someone else from hanging out near your centers with you further away. As if this post isn't insulting enough (which I apologize for), I disagree with your Venice movement. The Venice fleet should have gone to the Adriatic in order to help cover Trieste or the Ionian (whichever was most needed). The rest of the moves were reasonable except for Piedmont holding. It would have been better to move it east into Venice. This way, you'd have formed the wall you wanted against the R/T making its way back toward you. I'm going to assume that the Tuscany move was made out of the assumption that R and T weren't going to attack you and you still wanted to gain ground against the French. Outside that, there's no real reason to have your fleet here. I also suspect that you won't be moving to the GoL this next season. Of the moves that were really great (which were more plentiful than the bad ones), the convoy was an excellent choice--getting that loose army to Apulia will pay dividends. Also on the bright side is that you do have a retreat coming, although you'll be down 2 or 3 centers by the end of the season and possibly the bottom spot on the map.

#4 France: As bad as things might seem, you're still in a pretty good position. There's still a chance that you might maintain control of Belgium but it will require out-thinking the German player in addition coupling that with a bit of diplomacy luck. You've managed to get all your bases covered and even have a fleet in the MAO to boot which has several options. If you actually do maintain control of Belgium and don't lose anything, then you're in a really great spot and might possibly go up the ladder. As it is, though, I suspect that you'll maintain where you're at with the loss of Paris.

#5 Turkey: Not far from the #3 spot, the moves this season were pretty good. The only real downfall that you're facing right now is that you have one too many fleets out there than what you really need. One suggestion is to get one of them into the Black Sea but ultimately you'll be facing an army build from the gain at Greece. Another thing you'll have to be cautious about is your northern ally. He will gain 1 maybe 2 centers this next year and I anticipate that one of them will have to be at Sevastopol. You'll have to ask yourself how long you think that the temporary alliance will last and whether or not you think he views you as expendable.


Things to look for this season:
What's Russia going to do in the north this fall. If he does indeed have 2 builds coming, it would be awfully 'convenient' for him to have only two open centers to put them and if he does have actual options on where to place units, what they will be will indicate some things to come. The other thing to look for is if Germany gains a build or stays even and if France loses a build or stays even. This will determine who has the upper hand in the western war.

Curious about youradhere's commentary. Looking forward to it :)

...or not.

I PM'd him, tru

I'm rather busy today, so this will be a short one:


Well, it looks like we’ve got between Germany and France after all. Germany is in excellent tactical position, able to both retake Belgium before the Fall move and take Paris. I don’t envy France. The dip for Belgium was, in my opinion, probably more trouble than it was worth.

Italy is either very lucky or very skilled. If we’re to assume the latter, then he’s successfully convinced France with his mobilization West that he means business and is willing to neglect his Eastern front to fight off France.

Unfortunately, in doing so he really did neglect his Eastern front, and Turkey pulled off the expected attack, joined by Russia in the Austrian theatre. It seems that Italy will have plenty of time to recover, however, since France will have more than a handful in Germany’s attack.

Russia’s in beautiful shape, though I do wonder if he’s ever going to move on Germany. If he wants to win, he’ll have to stab in the next year or two, while Germany’s still busy with France. If he can’t push into German territory quickly enough, the attack will stall and he’ll be too vulnerable to a Turkish stab. I wouldn’t move just yet, since Germany’s got plenty of units back home and still has the potential to negotiate a truce with France, in my opinion.

In any case, I wouldn’t bet against either Germany or Russia at this stage.

Turkey’s capitalizing on his tremendous potential with a move Westward. He’s bottled up again, though, since he only has an army in Greece. He’ll have to rely on Russia to remove a center or two from Italy before being able to make any more progress.

I will disagree with your commentary at one point--your assessment of Italy: A year ago, F/G was the primary alliance in the game and the eastern countries (all 4) banded together to take it head on. When G stabbed F, the east had the ability to splinter and take on new opponents. G and R went neutral while R and a dormant T turned on the west-facing Italian. Now, I and F have gone neutral to try to fight back, although it might be too late. Only time and diplomacy will tell.

I'm also not comfortable with Germany's position and I don't expect to see him get more than 1 build this year. I also think that he will have to make the decision on whether to retake Bel or take Par.

Certainly R and G will have somewhat a tense relationship as will R and T and in time we will see how things play out.

I do agree with you that Turkey is incredibly bottled up but if Russia helps out, Turkey will see additional builds.

In the long run, I don't think the stabs are over. I'm also curious about what sort of press is being passed between nations at this point. "alliances" (and I use the term loosely) have been passed around so much that I wonder what people really have to say to each other at this point. It's been my experience that press is heavy in 1901 and declines over the years as the game settles. Naturally this is somewhat true since people get eliminated, but I get the feeling that it declines more than these type of 'odds' would expect.

bump

and again

Bump for autumn moves.

This keeps falling. But we shall make it rise to the top!

F05:

#1 Germany: I had expected you to drop to the second spot to a rising Russian, but with him supporting him Turkey into locations I expected him to take and the loss of Vienna means that you're still in the best position on the map. The fact Russia is moving against you isn't much of a shock either but fortunately the early spring disband will give you an army build that will help out. That, coupled with the fact that you ousted France from Belgium with nowhere to run means that you can dedicate units to your rear flank. Couple all of those with the understanding that you'll finally take the last of the English centers next season means that you should be sitting pretty next year. For builds, I expect an army build at Berlin.

#2 Russia: This year wasn't quite the blessing that you expected it would be and you now have a rather condensed Italy that will possibly cause you to have to slog through the next years instead of putting yourself on cruise control. Hopefully the premature move on Germany won't cause any further complications either, since your north isn't nearly as secure as your south and with no builds coming, I'd be particularly nervous about what Germany can do in the north. Oftentimes, if I'm going to get a build, I will wait to stab a player until after I already have the centers secured and make a new move in the spring. This failure to gain a build has entirely to do with not securing your steps before making a new leap. Remember the old adage that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. It's better to take 1 center than try something risky for 2 in nearly all cases, this being one of them. But, if you can secure a build next year (which I believe you will), then you should be in much better shape than at present.

#3 France: This last season turned out, in my opinion, far better than what it could have been. With Russia moving inward, things are looking a little more stable. You've got some room to negotiate, both with Germany and Russia and couple that with a neutral Italy, your future could be rather bright in the year to come. You're not out of the woods yet and you could still suffer some losses at London and Paris next year with the excess of fleets you have at your disposal. One thing I should point out, though, is that you chose to use cut-supports instead of holds along the northern zones. I really like that. Far too often players find themselves in tricky situations and assume that their only option is to support a hold or two. In many cases, a cut support is better since it accomplishes the same thing but doesn't give up anything. The cut-support is a sure thing and can't itself be cut. I've even seen the support hold fail in games with veteran players because they didn't think about selecting a cut-support option. Nicely done.

#4 Turkey: Your situation has certainly improved and you're teetering on the #3 spot. If you can manage to get out of the box you're in along the sea zones, then your growth will be much better than it rests at it's current. Having Russia support you into Serbia was some icing on the cake for me. With two builds coming, you'll still be a bit bottled but you're in the break-out stage. If I were to have changed anything, it would have been how you took Greece. If you'd have taken it with Bulgaria instead of the AEG, then getting into the ION would have been a breeze. As it is, Italy will keep you locked up for a little longer but not forever. I can understand the apprehension with Russia in the north but not quite my first choice of moves. The bottom line is that you're still in pretty good shape. For builds, I expect a pair of armies. I really can't see how a fleet build would be beneficial.

#5 Italy: Rough ride this last year. Just as the early Turkish NMR threw things off for both him and Austria, the German stab did the same thing for you. Losing two units isn't fun but I must congratulate you on your moves last season. You held your losses to as little as possible and condensed your units as much as possible. Things are grim but not over by any means and most of the board is still in the same position you are. Depending on what happens next year will determine how things will go for you. You have the ability to get behind Russia, or at least push him back, without compromising much in return. For disbands, I expect that they will come from your far side at Tuscany and Venice.


Things to look for: With the Russian advances on Germany, this could cause Germany to rethink his campaign against France. The biggest question on the map from my standpoint is whether Germany will attempt to patch things up with his old partner. This happens from time to time in games and I've done it myself to see a positive conclusion when things were falling apart and it's not out of the question here. If the F/G returns, it could have big implications for the rest of the map but it could be that Germany might be more willing than France or vice-versa and it's possible that bridges have been burned there without the possibility of repair.

strange that I've been calling it 1905 all year when it's 1906. Sorry for the pair of typos everyone.

Italy
It’s been a rough year. He managed to retake Vienna, but lost both Serbia and Greece to the Turkish stab. Fortunately, Germany has wrested France off his back, but Italy is going to have to fight like hell to survive from here on out. The only good news comes with Russia’s move to Silesia, which suggests that the Juggernaut will be facing some more resistance in the coming years. Then again, that may free up France to head back into the Mediterranean.

France
France is in trouble. Get started (or continue) negotiating with Russia about Germany. Russia’s made a dive into German territory, but German expansion into French territory has the potential to negate pressure from the East, especially since Germany already has significant forces in the West. The only good news is that, with the build, France should be able to, at the very least, hold the line. He’ll have to make sure that Russia is fully committed before making progress, though.

Germany
A good run into French territory, but that theatre may have stalemated again. It might be worth reconsidering cooperation with France in order to counter the Eastern threat. In my opinion, Germany is the only Western power with the potential to prevent the traditional (read: boring) three-way draw between Russia, Turkey, and France.

Turkey
Turkey’s done a good job building momentum. I wouldn't be surprised to see Turkey posing a serious threat to the Italian homeland this year, if he maintains Russian support. On that note, a stab of Russia will have to come soon if it’s ever going to come. Italy will need to be down, but not out for the count, for Turkey to upset the present order of things.

Russia
Best position in the game, I think. The move on Germany could have been more dramatic, but I’m not sure how else I would have pulled it off. With two armies approaching Germany, Russia may be able to pose a credible threat to Berlin in the Fall, albeit only if Germany remains engaged in France. Strategically, Russia is in the best shape. If I were Russia, I’d lobby for the three-way R/T/F draw, but move independently.

England
Wait, why is England still alive? Just go adventuring back to Edinburgh or something. St. Petersburg isn’t far, if you can get the support.

I agree that Russia has the best position on the map. He's got several aspects to his country that make for a really solid position:

(a) Condensed units with a pretty solid front line
(b) No real enemies, especially those that don't also have another enemy besides him
(c) Locations for future expansion.

I don't anticipate a Turkish stab. It would be a poor decision with R helping him gain new centers. Those sorts of stabs are like biting the hand that feeds you. If a stab does come, it's going to come when G is committed to a Russian combat and T has the resources necessary to make the change. This means that Italy would have to be on board and not bitter about the loss of Greece and Serbia or he'd have to be on his way out the door.

The only real drawback was the move on Germany coupled with the loss of (or not taking of) Vienna. I'm sure he really anticipated a build coming in and it would have been an army at Warsaw. He's going to be either talking his way out of negative consequences or lying about his actions. Either that or he isn't talking much to Germany at this point and he's banking on strong French support.

I also don't think Italy would dare move on France again this soon. He's got too much to concentrate on coming out of the east to bounce back into the Med. Even if he did gain Spain, Portugal or Marseilles, it would be to his detriment because he'd be dedicating units from his hot zone and he'd have to disband along his eastern border, which he can't really afford to do.

I thought we were trying to speed through retreats and builds?

I didn't know anyone was going to speed through anything. Builds and disbands are tricky sometimes and can mean the difference between advancing your country or getting stabbed. I personally enjoy thinking about my decisions. Sometimes it's obvious, other times it's not. Italy has a tricky set of disbands coming so I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't finalize.

Bump? Don't know if you guys want to comment on builds or not...

I'd already commented on where I thought builds would be. They were pretty much right on. Were the builds particularly strange to you? If so, I don't mind commenting, otherwise I'll leave them alone.