I don't always EOG but when I do, I make them lonnnnnnnnng.
EOG FROM GERMANY
This was a disappointing game for me, to get up to 11 SCs and ultimately get eliminated. The primary problem was that I misjudged England’s willingness to come after me at the expense of any shot he had at a solo himself. Kudos to Italy (uclabb) for coming back from near death to snake “my” share of the three-way draw.
I feel like on the site generally, people get too complacent in settling for draws rather than trying for solos in non-stalemate conditions. I thought that this game still had plenty of play left when it was down to 5, or even 4, powers, but no one seemed interested in making a real effort to solo. I knew when I stabbed Austria that I had slim odds of succeeding at a solo, but I relied on my expectation that the game would continue to be fluid as others made solo bids after I was smacked back down. That didn’t happen, so I mis-assessed the situation.
SPRING 1901
Fairly standard opening press with A and R. The entirety of my press with the original T player was two lines of “gobble gobble” from me and one “quack” from him. Italy was wary of empty CPA promises and interested in early EGI vs. F action. I was turned off by F’s initial press, where he wanted Bel but did not want to make any concrete plans or commitments. In contrast, E invited me to lay out how I saw things working out for us so we could brainstorm plans together. I responded with a very detailed plan for a quick kill of F, followed by G expansion into R and E expansion into Italy. It was probably more comprehensive and cutthroat than he wanted or expected, and may have spooked him. E admitted he was a cautious player and seemed more interested in a conservative pro-E opening that did not ruffle any feathers. EG had good communication over many early messages, but I was concerned our play styles would not match.
So back I went to F. We had not had much communication early because he said he had been busy. Once we got down to it, I thought we were a better match. I expressed my expectation that everyone in the West would open conservatively, but that I could be on board with early anti-E aggression if he wanted. At this point, I had given up on E opening aggressively and I was prepared to work with F against E, or alternately wait and see how S01 played out. I then promised F a DMZ in Bur, which was a mistake. We were well into the phase, it seemed like an early attack on F was a no-go due to E's reluctance, and I thought the fulfillment of a DMZ promise would be good for trustbuilding with F so we could work together against E. I never heard back from F, so we never worked out a plan against E beyond the concept of a false promise of a Western Triple.
Late in the phase, GI started talking even more intently about EGI vs. F. We agreed that E was a necessary participant. GI both wanted the early jump, but E was the cautious holdout. Just before deadline, E agreed to pile on F and hoped he did not regret this “drunken decision.” I regretted having promised a DMZ in Bur, but decided that the opportunity of EGI vs. F was too good to pass up. It worked like a charm and we stormed the chateau.
AUTUMN 1901
F was very upset with me. Despite the EGI attack, apparently I was the only one who had straight-up lied to him. E apparently had negotiated his move to EC with F’s blessing. I tried to persuade F that the EGI attack was all E’s idea, and that E was super-devious to have gotten himself invited into EC.
Over the course of this phase, F was all over the place. His press was at times caustic, calling me (and to a lesser extent EI) shortsighted and the scum of the board, as well as other personal attacks; to paranoid, tracking what other players said about when and how often I was communicating with them so F could tell whether I was ignoring his press; to conciliatory. The conciliatory part was well worded and presented a logical analysis of why I should relent from my initial course, but in the context of the haphazard other parts came off as insincere. I was reminded of another game (http://www.webdiplomacy.net/board.php?
gameID=69819) where EGI similarly jumped on F in S01, but F’s post-ambush press to me (England) was so good he got me to flip in his favor. That didn’t happen here, and I was ready to just finish F off and proceed with my original EG plan. I played up F’s inconsistent press with the other powers, calling him bipolar and ridiculing him to try to insure that no one reconsidered. To his credit, F was persistent and kept gamely trying to persuade me for several turns.
Meanwhile, GI were collaborating on how best to dismantle F. We concluded that EGI should all aim for a blue home center because F could not defend them all. E didn’t like the risk that he might end up with only one build. By this time, I had decided that my chief competition in the game was Italy, followed by Russia. I felt that E was unlikely to stab me down the road, and probably would be himself a good stab target once he had overcommitted in the Med. Eventually, we persuaded E to hit Bre and – as E had feared – F chose to bounce Bre and E got only one build.
T NMR’d, creating uncertainty in the East. We paused the game with moderator assistance until a new T player could join. A cancel might have been appropriate because it was only A01, but the western powers had put a LOT of time and effort into 1901 press and it would have been a huge shame to see it all be for naught. None of the remaining players seemed desirous of a cancel, so we continued on.
SPRING/AUTUMN 1902
1902 was just shooting fish in a barrel. F had no chance against the combined EGI. Meanwhile, EI made inroads on R in Scandinavia. R had asked whether I wanted him to build a fleet or army in StP and I said I didn’t care. I didn’t care because either way, I was about to come after him. My original S01 plan with E had all of Scandinavia and R with me and all of FI for him. His one army (Nor) was at my disposal, with the understanding that it eventually would be destroyed/disbanded and E would hold no territory in the northeast. My one army (Par) was at his disposal, with the same corresponding understanding. We would keep ownership of Bel fluid to maintain relatively even SC count, leave Nth a DMZ, and I would have no fleets bordering on Nth.
I kept alive the idea of a CPA with AI while acknowledging to both that none of us had actually agreed to a CPA. My real plan continued to be EG vs. the world. That happened to coincide with A’s request that we team up on R, which also coincided with a CPA. This made the press for 1902 easy: kill F, stall R, friendly with everyone else.
1902 went well, except that in A02 E had EC SH Bel instead of EC-MAO as we discussed. This turned out to be a crucial move because the next turn, Italy moved into MAO. E said he expected Italy would bounce him in MAO, but I had been pretty sure EC-MAO would succeed. I think the real reason was E was worried that my two armies and/or F’s army would combine to kick him out of Bel. I told E that this type of EG plan breaks down when E fails to get into the Med fast enough. He apologized, and I felt we were still in good shape. In this game, if E had moved to MAO then maybe he would have turned the corner into the Med and there would have been a different endgame. Instead, E never entered the Med, to my detriment.
1903
RI wanted me to team up with them against E. I wasn’t interested. First, dogpiling on E would involve splitting up the pink territories with RI. I had no interest in inviting RI fleets into the Atlantic. As I explained to E (to calm his paranoia – he had a nightmare that I stabbed him), under my EG plan his fleets would move *away* from me whereas under the RI plan their fleets would move *toward* me. I knew I was going to be at a fleet disadvantage, so I wanted R out of the northern fleet game, F dead, and most/all pink fleets heading south.
Second, I felt I had a sound strategy with my original EG plan. I didn’t think anyone suspected the depth of the EG alliance, or the pre-arranged expendability of the pink army in Nor or the brown army in Par. Italy was offering me part of the former France, but I didn’t want French territory. Being in France overextended me and I had worked out a nice efficient division of the board with E.
Third, I thought I had a better chance of effecting a productive stab against E down the road than against RI. For me to solo, I would need to stab my ally and have them miscalculate how much momentum the stab would give me. I assessed Italy as a stronger player than E, and therefore less likely to leave me the necessary opening. So far, E generally had been receptive to my suggested moves and I thought I would have a better likelihood of negotiating with E for moves that subtly favored my solo attempt.
Fourth, R was busy fighting A in the south. It was unclear what T was doing. If AT joined together, R was going to go down quickly. I saw little benefit in keeping R viable in the north.
Lastly, Italy had better relations with R, and even with one-center F. Italy was proposing GRIF vs. E. I agreed that E would go down in that scenario, but after the dust settled, I thought Italy would have too much control and I would end up on the short end. (I'm being very detailed about my reasoning here because uclabb asked me.)
So instead, I strung along RI into thinking I would help them and instead stayed true to E. R agreed to disband his second northern fleet rather than retreat, which made my expansion into his territory much smoother.
By A03, it was clear that I was no friend to RI. I stole Mar, and E advanced into StP. Having the pink army at the front against R was part of my plan all along, with me backfilling behind him. I didn’t even care about taking Mar because I planned to give it back to E whenever convenient. My possession of Mar was important only to deny Italy the build and help E against him.
1904
1904 was good for me. We wiped out R, I continued to expand to the east, and EI were fighting around Iberia. All according to the original EG plan. Additionally, A was carving up Italy’s flank, making it more likely that E would finally be able to punch through to the Med.
Winter 1904 was crucial. I was ready to stab in 1905, and I intended to attack E. However, E did a good job (perhaps with prompting from Italy) of negotiating safeguards with me. Meanwhile, A did none of that. As a result, I shifted my plans to attack A instead. I didn't think I could likely get 18 by stabbing A, but I felt strong enough to give it a shot -- you can't solo if you don't try -- and I thought I could smooth things out diplomatically with E. After all, I wasn't coming after E! The alternative was to just sit back and wait for the EGA 3wd to coalesce, which I thought was wimpy given that I was at 11 SC and in the best solo position.
E wanted an EGA 3wd, and I sensed he was sincere, rather than just giving empty talk to mask his own solo aspirations. He warned me that he would come after me if I tried to solo. I sprinkled in ambiguous language into our press so I could point back to it later.
1905
In the spring, I made a crucial mistake of ordering GoB-StP(sc). I knew that the safe course was to order GoB-Swe so that I could beat E to Ska, my weak point. However, I had promised E that I would take StP with a fleet. I think he expected it to be Nor, but I thought that if I sent GoB I could say I took it with a fleet like I promised. I thought it was unlikely E would move to NWG, although I knew he was worried about me trying for a solo. I thought his concern was mainly about me stabbing him, and our pre-arranged bounce in Nth would take care of that. So I sent GoB-StP so that I could try to defend my actions to E. Also, taking StP with an army (Mos) would create other vulnerability to E’s army in Sev.
My stab of A worked beautifully, but E did go NAO-NWG instead of NAO-MAO. The latter would have put him in prime position to kill Italy. Now I was in trouble because I was out of position to defend Ska. I colluded with AT on the destruction of the pink army in Sev to take it out of the equation and to deny E the center. Having a T fleet in Sev allowed me to shift my forces west to address the E threat.
I tried to convince E that my attack on A was not a solo bid, but instead was part of the natural expansion path I had blocked out back in S01. I said I still intended a 3wd, but the natural third partner was T, not A. I went back through all the EG press to show him that interpretation was consistent with our prior communication. I also tried to convince him that I could not possibly get to 18 in the east. I thought I had made some progress, and there was a chance he might back off and let me be. I was wrong.
1906
In S06, I guessed horribly wrong on E’s moves. Had I moved Bar-NWG, Kie-Hel, I think I would have been totally fine. Instead, I used Bar and Kie on unnecessary supports. I had not remotely expected E to vacate NWG because it would have been the end of his attack had I correctly anticipated and moved to NWG.
I also made a mistake in not backing off of my attack on A. A took my stab very well, even congratulating me on it (what a contrast to F). He promised we could reconcile if I would just get out of Vie. I believed it at the time, but I thought I could still manage to hold off E and have A force me out, to slow him down a little. I tried to get TI to attack A, in which case I might even have been able to hang onto Vie. I should have backed off on A once things went sideways with E.
At the end of 1906, I had to disband two units. I knew that the only way I would survive is if I could get Italy to attack E. I thought the best way of accomplishing that was by tying up E’s units in the north to make a stab attractive to Italy. So I disbanded my two eastern armies, giving A free license to rampage. I knew that he likely would take me down, but I hoped that if I could last long enough for Italy to hit E, that I might still survive. I also thought that E was the type of player who would quickly patch things up with me if Italy attacked his southern flank.
It didn’t work. Italy never came after England, and Austria unsurprisingly ate up my centers. I wonder now if I would have been better off focusing all in the east and letting E have free rein, so that Italy might feel compelled to come after him to prevent an E solo.
1907-1911
The rest of the game was just me running around until they finally killed me. I really thought that Italy would try for a solo with a northern push. It probably would not have worked, but I think it was a possibility. Instead, EAI just cemented their positions and took the straightforward 3wd.
Like I said, it was a disappointing game. I still had fun. I just wish I had been part of the final board. Perhaps one of these days I’ll actually be allied with ghug instead of responsible for his demise. Thanks LanGaidan for taking over Turkey.