Whoops. Here's my map. Hopefully.

http://www.270towin.com/

Uh oh.

lol. Click "Share map" under the map, then copy the link that's under the various icons.

I'll post mine later, before looking at anybody else's. Must be off for now though.

Here's my prediction... Long Live Pres. Obama!

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=KRV

Gallup currently shows Romney with a 7 point leage among likely voters and the national average of polls shows he has about a 1 point lead.

The ONLY poll that matters is the one taken on election day... that being said, I fear where this country could well be headed in the near future given the current numbers.

I was tempted to plus one you, LegMen. But then you had to go and make it political. The only poll that matters is electin day. Obsolutely.

My political view is very apolitical. I hate the current two party system and I think both candidates have good and bad things about them such that we are damned if we change captains and damned if we stay on our present course.

Well, in that Draugnar, I totally agree with you. My present political leaning is solely because there is nothing better. As such, I am a prisoner looking at only two possible alternatives - try to escape and die or die waiting in jail.

Legatus is right. Polls are nothing but marketing tools.

With early voting, it simply isn't true that only the actual election day result matters. Some states have been able to send in ballots since basically right after the election. It's ridiculous. What if early voters are enough to put Romney in, but on Hallowee we find out he goes into people's houses at night and wrecks up the place? Not every voter is voting with the same information if we have easy and widespread early voting, and that could be a really bad thing in the event of a genuine October surprise.

Anyway, here's my map.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=KSC

I will truly have to call in sick to work if Florida goes Red again! That's not saying that I don't believe it will... but... damn Floridians.

"basically right after the convention." Naturally.

As long as Ohio goes red, I'm good. A poll in Cincinnati shows that Romney has a 62-35 lead here. I'd vote for someone else, but then I'd just be throwing away my vote.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=KTn 284 Obama, 254 Romney

That's New Hampshire, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin going for Obama, while Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Nevada go for Romney.

If I'm wrong about one of these states, I bet it's Wisconsin.

Ohio is leaning Romney now and will likely go Romney.

Obama has lead in most polls of Ohio for the last month. I'd give him a 60-70% chance of winning there. Of the ten most recent polls in Ohio, only two - by Gravis Marketing and American Research Group - give Romney a lead.

Just looking at the most recent major national polling companies that use live interviews in Ohio, Rasmussen's last poll gave Obama 1-point lead in Ohio, NBC/Marist a 6-point lead, CNN a 4-point lead, and PPP gave Obama a 5-point lead.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1013.pdf
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/news/Marist%20OH%2010-12.pdf
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/09/topgenstate4.pdf
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=564b76d9-2e24-4689-a7a6-8b760fc858a6

Rassmussen and Gallup are the only ones worth paying attention to. In 2008 they were the closest to the actual result, and even overstated Obama's win slightly. One point's definitely within the margin of error. It's a toss-up, but Romney still has the momentum.

The RCP average gives Obama a 2.4 point lead here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html The chart shows that Romney has never lead in Ohio in the average of all the polls.

Anyway - you certainly may be right. But if Romney wins Ohio, he also definitely wins Wisconsin.

Well, I can't re-find the acticle that said that, but here's one that shows Rasmussen as right on, along with Pew. My point on Rasmussen stands, though.

http://www.rove.com/notes/80

I'd disagree that Rasmussen and Gallup are the only ones worth paying attention to. Any poll that uses a comprehensive methodology - random sample of registered voters done through live interviews that include respondents with cell phones - is worth paying attention to. Gallup and the other flagship polls used to be a sort of industry gold standard, but I would argue the quality difference between them and other polls is fading as the business gets more and more saturated.

2008 is a long time ago in the world of polling, and polling is a probabilistic enterprise. When you're talking about confidence intervals and margins of error, I wouldn't use a sample size of 1 as a benchmark for quality.

Rasmussen shows just a 1% differenc in Ohio which is so small and less than the margin of error such that it may as well be a draw. At this point, the difference in electoral votes is less than the state of Ohio. so my home state may well, yet again, be the difference and the decider of the election. As goes Ohio, so goes the nation.

I disagree. If they were right on last time and have a history of being right on then we can expect them to do so again.

Draug, you're probably right--I suspect whoever wins Ohio will win the election.

"2008 is a long time ago in the world of polling, and polling is a probabilistic enterprise."

I'm not going to get into the math and don't want to derail the thread further. I just mean that it makes more sense to trust polling companies that have a history of doing it right than to put a bunch of stock in other polls from other companies, some of which aren't even primarily polling outfits.

My biggest fear is this could be a repeat of Bush Gore but in reverse. Romney get the popular vote but Obama get the electoral college.

That would be nightmare. Even though presidents have won on just the electoral vote before, we've never had one reelected after losing the popular vote. If you think gridlock's bad now, imagine how unhelpful the Republicans in Congress would be if Obama didn't really even have a mandate from the people. You'd have an amendment to abolish the Electoral College passed even before Inauguration Day.