Look at the state races. North carolina +6 Hillary, Pennsylvania +8, Wisconsin +6, Colorado +4, Nevada +4, Virginia +8. He needs 2 of them.

Trump winning Florida by +4 would be stunning. Consider +4 is about 3 million votes in Florida. Obama won by +.75 (500,000)

Ohio 44.5 45.8 Trump +1.3Trending Up
Florida 44.3 44.8 Trump +0.5Trending Up
Pennsylvania 46.4 40.8 Clinton +5.6Trending Down
Colorado 44.0 40.0 Clinton +4.0Trending Down
North Carolina 47.1 44.1 Clinton +3.0Trending Up
Iowa 40.3 41.7 Trump +1.4
Nevada 45.2 43.7 Clinton +1.5Trending Down

Clinton ALL trending down except North Carolina, Trump trending up in all but Iowa

that said, North Carolina is another Trump is desperately going to need. nonetheless: it's tightening

Using RCP for all of these btw, just to source

Trump isn't going to in Florida. The poll aggregates have Clinton slightly ahead, and she has a ground game and he doesn't which will push the results a couple of points in her favor. Similarly, I think Clinton has good odds to win Arizona. Who knows, that weird poll in Alaska might turn out to be right and she carries Alaska too (not likely to be sure.)

"Trump isn't going to...."

anybody that thinks they have a crystal ball sufficiently clear to say "X is going to ..." in this election is smoking some really, really good shit.

There are DEMOCRATS now coming out not only withdrawing support for Clinton, but saying she should pull out of the race. It's a possibility she will be under federal Indictment come inauguration day....this isn't just that She's a big meaning and
"..wants to grab some pussy" (which, coincidently, Hillary has been caught saying too....just saying...)

Trumps negatives are that he's a foul-mouthed schnook. big freaking deal...if anyone thinks all politicians are pure-as-the-driven-snow and never say mean things, then you are just ridiculosly stupid. Trumps only problem is he is stupid enough to say what he thinks in public.

But MOST people are actually electing people based upon POLICY, not language. That's why even evangelicals are still strongly supporting Clinton.

But it's pretty freaking hard to enact yoru policy when you are in a jail cell....thus clinton is going to take a HUGE hit at the polls. Maybe not in terms of people switching votes...but just people not wasting the time to even vote.

anecdotally, drive across the country and look at yards signs and vehicle bumper stickers. Hillary has no support. 4 years ago there were Obama signs and stickers everywhere. This year? none...her support is non-existent. She cna't get people to her rallies, whereas Trump fillls the halls.

so...as much as a dick as Trump is, there isn't a single predictor that can accurately model and estimate turnout in this election.

and if you are truly stupid enough to rely on polling data, which has already been PROVEN to be utterly bogus -- massive oversampling to Democrats, for instance -- then you are just fooling yourself.

Not saying Trump is going to win....I'm saying nobody knows, and I'm syaing it damned well could be akin to the carter-versus-reagan massive landslide for Trump. They had Jimmy Carter up by *9* points going into the election, and the media was doing the same shit then they are doing today.

Reagan obliterated Trump. The analysts that are paying attention to reality (i.e. NOT the fraudulent media polls) are saying that a Trump landslide is increasingly possible.

@Krellin

I think we might have an election where the popular vote won't coincide with the electoral. I'm seeing 2 main factors in the next 7 days that can help Trump, and 1 on election day:

1. FBI investigation. It's unlikely that in one week they can create a legal case, but it's not impossible for there to be something that gets leaked (or hacked)

2. Trump needs to stop trying to consolidate his base, and try to expand one final time. Easiest method is attacking Clinton. Openly talk about her in 2003-05, where she was pro-traditional marriage then flipped, signed the bill that put up border fences then denounced it - stay away from iraq war for now.

show her to be unreliable

on the election day:

momentum. He needs to win states BIG and that will be motivating for his supporters. That's huge.

RCP uses multiple polls. Look closely at Rassmussen and Remington. Research those two. Both are owned by GOP Evangelicals/lobbyists

About a week ago I dropped my crystal ball and it shattered.

Btw yanik I got a facebook friend suggestion to add you lol

That's strange. Even I don't have him added on Facebook. But that's mostly because IDGAF about Facebook.

this is why I shouldn't have my real name out on the internet

Good thing Tr isn't a real name, huh?

they can find me, and through me: you

the they can see your true form: AN EGG WITH A GREEN BACKGROUND MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Tristen.

it's Tristen guys

....................../´¯/)
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........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...')
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:)

Are you sure? That sounds like a pretty stupid name.

Yanik you look way too happy. I get nervous about people who smile too much

He doesn't and you should be.

krellin proves he doesn't understand polling, of course.

Two interesting data points:

1) In the four-way race, Clinton's numbers haven't gone down, but Trump's have gone up, corresponding almost exactly to a rise in his approval among Republicans. This has been happening for a couple weeks.

2) At the same time, Trump's polling better in the two-way race than in the four-way race for the first time in months, suggesting that more third-party supporters are leaning towards Trump as a second choice than previously.

@Lethologica

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/31/clinton-loses-popularity-edge-in-tight-race-with-trump-new-post-abc-tracking-poll-finds/

Trump has gone down in un-favorability (double negative i know, I'm sorry), while Clinton has risen in un-favorability. It's a mix of the two - and that's from a liberal source!

@brainbomb

my smiles mask a deeper underlying mental psychosis that will eventually lead to the deaths of millions.

ALL HAIL YANIK

Also back to the issue. Usually the poll numbers close the unrealistic gap reasonably in the days before the election. Keep in mind that a +6 lead in places like Wisconsin, Virginia, and Minnesota are significant. This close to the election trump wants most numbers to be within +2 to +4 range in favor of himself.

In places like Iowa, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Utah, and in some cases even Ohio and Florida Trump has the numbers he would want to help strategize where to spend the last money on ads.

But even if Trump wins every-single-one-of-those battlegrounds that is still not enough without also stealing Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, or **Longshot** Any one of those Rust Belt States where he has nearly 4 or 5 point defecits to cover.

Krellin mentioned something about Carter. The polls in the 1970's and 1980's are NOTHING compared to the data we have now. Just look at the research polling sources. Rassmussen typically favors Trump by as much as 4-6 points more than any other poll. WHY? well its an online poll, you arent talking to a human being. studies have shown that online polling people are less truthful and sometimes its literally just for lulz. Rassmussen is also owned by the GOP.

The other poll showing Trump lead increases across the board is Remington. Owned by a guy who literally is a lifelong Pro Life Lawyer who is obsessed with all things Republican.

With those two polls combined, take a moment to look at RCP's data the past few days and look what sources are almost all citing Trump advances in the lead. They all correlate to being GOP owned research companies. Not saying that invalidates them, but keep in mind Rasmussen ranked DEAD LAST in the 2012 election vs Romney, having an average of 8 points off in most states. Think about how many people 8 points is in a state like North Carolina for example.

8 points in North Carolina would be like Trump winning tthe state by almost a million freaking votes. 1 million people is a pretty ridiculous amount of voters to botch.

Think if 8 points off were in Florida? what is that 5 million people?

Keep a close eye on the shit our resident Republicans on this website say.

1) If the polls heavily favor Hillary they say something like. "Alot can change in a few days, I dont trust those polls".

2) If the polls show a slight to miniscule Trump bump trend suddenly its "See I told you a lot can change, Trump is going to win".

3) They never want to look state by state and tell you what his path to winning is. (It isnt possible if he loses Virginia and North Carolina, just saying, it simply isnt).

4) they always wanna say Trump is surging, but when he isnt they wanna tell you the polls are liberal biased. The only time they love the polls is when its a bunch of hillbilly shitstain GOP owned robocall polls like peice of shit rassmussen... OHHH NOW THE POLLS ARE ACCURATE.

get the fuck out of here.

@Leth...

I understand polling juts fine, I just suspect that you are a mind-number liberal in denial of the attempted fixing that has taken place in the media.

I understand this:

1. The media long ago stopped being about "reporting the news" and, especially this elections cycle, and OPENLY ADMITTING IT, they have been trying to persuade the voters opinions.
2. POLLS therefore have often times become less about "reporting the opinion of..." and have as much become about "persuading the opinion of..."
3. Because Americans -- yourself, for example -- are probably more interested in "being right" than they are about "getting it right"
4. Therefore if Joe-Moron Average American sees an article that says "Polls put Killary up by XX points", the media *believes* that Average "undecided" Joe-Moron American will say, "Wellllll shi-i-i-i-i-t....I's better gets my vote in fer Killary too...because I'd rather be right with the crowd, than get it right" and the media thinks therefore they can influence the election VIA THE REPORTING OF POLLS THAT THEY CONTROL....
5. Therefore, in order to CREATE POLLS THAT INFLUENCE the election, rather than report actual unbiased feelings, they create polls that are an attempt to model what they believe is going to be the turnout.

So....while they may sample 100 Republipukes and 100 Demoncrats and 50 "Independants", they will not report the results precisely as they came in. Instead, they will examine their "models" and say "likely turnout is 70 Republipukes, 85 Demoncras and 34 Independents" and therefroe they WEIGHT THE REPORTED RESULTS based upon what their model predict the turnout to be.

Except their predicted turnout is complete and utter bullshti.

We KNOW that most of the polls have been MASSIVELY OVERSAMPLING THE DEMONCRATS.....so in thei model...they think there will be a much higher turnout of dmocrats....

...and they base this typiclaly on the voter turnout of the last election -- the Obma election....with the uninspiring Republican candidate....

And to suggest that the turn-out in 2016 is going to in any way going to mirror the turnout of 2012 is pure and complete BULLSHIT...and the media knows it.

The media knows that when they examine Killary rallies versus Trump rallies that Trump is getting ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE greater attendance than Killary.

They know that both voter bases are extremely depressed...but that Trump has a blue-collar democrats drifting to his side...and the MEDIA IS IGNORING THIS...and instead if pretending that this is a 2012 turn-out year and ...

....and THERFORE the polling data is complete and utter crap.

Now you, my dear boy, are probably a one of those Democrats that can't imagine using logic and reason and facts when it contradicts yoru emotional held beliefs....I get it...

And you will be most likely *quite* surprised come election day.



Interesting thing happening starting last week. You know media doesn't want to be 12 points off in their predictions come election day....so anyone with a brain will have noticed that starting last week, even before the new FBI announcement that will sink Hillary....even then,k polls magiclaly started tightening up.

Where Hillary was up 12 points in one poll, for example, over a week in whcih essentially othign happened she is suddenyl only up 3.

WHY? You ask yourself...

Easy peasy, lemon squeezy...becuase in the last two weeks the corrupt media needs to shift from WE ARE TRYING TO PERSUADE YOUR VOTE and are falsely reporing data....to "WE ARE TRYING TO GET IT RIGHT SO WE STILL HAVE CREDIBILITY AFTER THE ELECTION"....


.....AND THUS they are throwing out their bogus models as the election draws near and will start reproting the ACTUAL polling numbers....and thus the magical "tightening of the plling numbers" as the election nears....

and now....because the Demoncrats nominated a criminal ....the polls are almost meaningless and the the election is wide open - the polls will not be able to predict the outcome.

ANOTHER point --- because the media has done such a fine job of bashing Trump, they have most likely ALSO influenced the polls such that people will LIE to pollsters and not admit they are voting for Trump....again makign the polling data they collect meaningless.

it is very possible that Trump has a Reagan-esque landslide - IN POPULAR AND ELEDCTORAL votes.

Just wait...

Brainbomb -- aren't your the dude that dates a drunken whore who wrekced yoru car and got throw in jail and won't return your calls and yet you still pine after her?

I don't think you have the credibility, sensibility or common sense to be able to offer a valid opinion on the price of diapers, let alone an election.

<oh SNAP!!! he said that!!!>

Yea but krellin you are citing polls from the 1970's to support your argument. people didnt have cell phones, and internet back then. everything was landline polling. Theres tons of methods today for gathering this information. Some accurate to absurdly specific quality and quantity.

People who dont like the polls typically just whine about them without simply doing the research into who is conducting them. I think we can both agree that CBSnews is pretty fair. They have Clinton up by only 1 point in Florida which sounds pretty accurate. Keep in mind 1 point is 200,000 voters.

Well I can see you dont understand how relationships work, much less polling. So there is not much to discuss here. When you love a woman, much like you must Love Donald Trump, it is really hard to accept its gonna fall apart.

Perhaps we arent so different you and I. I hope Trump buys you a nice big pony to ride off into the sunset with him. Or perhaps appoint you to engineer one of his chinese steel made towers built by polish illegal workers.