I can't watch the video, but that's not going to stop me from negligently commenting on it anyway.

I think increased automation will be great for society. It will allow us to much better allocate our resources. I'm not convinced by typically arguments about automation replacing all jobs. If you work in the computer industry, then you know that computers require a lot of people to maintain. From techs with associate degrees all the way up to PhD research jobs. Honestly, blue collar workers should be delighted by the increase in automation. Servicing a robot is a Mich better job than performing the task of a robot.

We need to adapt. Get everyone to learn and understand computers at a young age so that when they go out into the workforce, they know what computers are capable of and know how to market their skills in a way that complements and enhances the services that computers provide, rather than compete against them.

Yes, student need to start learning about computers in elementary school. Not typing, but gaining a real understanding of how they work.

Ask me again in The Year 2525 (if man is still alive...)

I wrote a pretty long paper on this subject a few months ago for one of my computer science courses. It's an interesting subject, and one that is going to radically change our way of life.

In the future (25 years+) many people simply will not have to work. There will be a scarcity of jobs, due to the automatizing of many industries and jobs.

All numbers from http://www.bls.gov/ooh/

The following fields could all be several reduced by automation:

Surveyors (45,000)
Grounds Maintenance (1.28M)
Janitors/Cleaning (2.2M)
Maids (1.4M)
Bartenders (0.5M)
Cooks (2.1M)
Servers (4.4M)
Waiters (2.6M)
Paralegals (280,000)
Bus drivers (650,000
Deliver drivers (1.28M)
Heavy truck drivers (1.7M)
Taxi drivers (230,000)

Even if only half of all these are cut, that's 10 million less jobs, just from a handful of occupations.

There's simply not going to be enough jobs to go around. It's already becoming an issue.

I strongly disagree that all of those jibs will go. Bartenders, for instance, will largely be safe because the job of a bartender is more than pouring a drink.

Also, you didn't take into account all the jobs automation will create.

That was a very non-exhaustive list. And like I said, they were candidates for automation.

A bartender's job is not at all un-automatable. You simply have a screen where you put in what you want, and the automatic system mixes it and sends it to you. Anything can be automated, the only question is how long it will take.

A touch screen doesn't sell as many drinks as a hot bartender.

Fundamentally I think this automation should be freedom for millions and great for society, however, instead of that I think this will be a curse for millions who will be out of work, but not cared for. You already see it with 'self-service' tills in supermarkets and the increasing redundancies there.

Also, can you imagine a bunch of wasted people trying to operate a touch screen?

automated drink ordering is already a thing, It doesn't need to completely eliminate bartenders, just take out a sizeable chunk of those employed

and the amount of jobs created for servicing robots will be minimal compared to jobs lost.

If we invest more in education then it won't matter that service jobs are taken over by robots, as most people are capable of much more than that if given the opportunity.

And, you're right that traditional jobs will be a net loss, but look at all the nontraditional jobs that computers have allowed for. YouTube and Twitch allow people to share what they're doing to the whole world for trivial costs. Quite a few make a good living off of it too. I suspect more things like that will spring up as tech develops.

@ Chaqa: If you think a bartender's only job is pouring drinks, you're going to the wrong bars. A good bartender is an engaging host, responsible not just for serving drinks but for entertaining and interacting with the patron in ways a vending machine cannot.

As for servers and waiters, consider this: Hot drinks vending machines were invented decades ago. Vending machines that serve sandwiches and other snack foods also exist. Why do so many coffee shops still have waitresses? Based on your assumptions there would be no jobs in serving people coffee. Those jobs would have vanished in the 1970s or earlier. But that hasn't happened.

@Jamiet: those things are very bad models. Newer, more sophisticated versions will eliminate more jobs - not all, but more.

As for the bartender thing, like I said not all will be eliminated, but a large chunk can and will.

abge, i very much doubt there will be the accompanying investment in people that is needed. unemployment if anything is desired in a neoliberal economy.

What?

@ Chaqa:

"Newer, more sophisticated versions will eliminate more jobs - not all, but more."

I see no evidence that *any* waiting jobs are currently being eliminated on a meaningful level.

According to the US department of labor, in 2013, a total of 2,403,960 people were employed as waiters and waitresses in the USA.

In 2008 there were 2,371,750 people working as waiters and waitresses in the USA

In 2003 there were 2,125,100 people working as waiters and waitresses in the USA.

By your logic this number should be going down. But it is in fact slowly going up.

Sources:
http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes353031.htm
http://www.bls.gov/oes/2008/may/oes353031.htm
http://www.bls.gov/oes/2003/may/oes353031.htm

I happen to agree with chaqa. While the local bar might,might serve more drinks with hot bartender, the club atmosphere will do better automated. They will pump out double or triple the drinks, without huge lag time. The faster drinks come out the more will be drank.

@Jamiet: this is a trend that will begin soon, and has already in many things. It's not a current trend overall, however. I thought I made that pretty clear in my first line about (25+ years) from now

Required reading when discussing automation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Piano_(novel)

Eden's 3-step plan for TheFutureTM

1. Replace welfare with a guaranteed minimum income (see other thread for details on this, probably on the 2nd pg by now)
2. Higher ed reform to increase access to it (not sure on the details of this, but the goal is to make it so that anyone who cares enough to put in the time and work can go and get a degree, while at the same time not making it a de facto obligation for those who don't care about college to go; it's these people that are the source of artificial demand that drives up prices)
3. Welcome our robotic overlords since everyone has a basic level of existence as it is and anyone who wants more than that has easy access to universities (or even trade schools, hell, why not? robotic trade schools? shit sounds awesome doesn't it?) that can provide them a path

Derka dur!

Other benefits from automation:

1. Reduction in traffic accidents due to human error - should severely reduce fatalities from driving, as well as drunk/high/sleepless driving, and a myriad of other road-related issues. Should also reduce traffic.

2. Faster services - delivery, infrastructure, everything will run faster.

3. More free time for most people

+1 PE

In truth, I am nervous for the future of humanity if we keep the current mindset about automation. While we may (and have) initially resist and ignore the presence of automation, the truth is that when humans compete with machines, the machines always win because they can do the job better than humans. Sure we can try to assure ourselves that they can do MY job, but really it is closer to the truth that they can't do your job YET. Software engineers aren't just programming computers to do different jobs, but to learn jobs that they can't ever teach them.
The first jobs to jobs to go will be blue collar, which will cause a large amount of unemployment for unskilled and entry-level workers. However, soon after they will be prominent in other careers (in fact, they already are, which you can see if you watch the video), and will only continue to grow.
Hell, we even have computerized singers in Vocaloid over in Japan. At least maybe the scientists, the people who bring us to understand the universe better and open the door for new technology are safe, except for: http://www.theguardian.com/science/2009/apr/02/eureka-laws-nature-artificial-intelligence-ai
In the end, we will lose to technology, and there are few solutions. Not everyone can be a computer programmer. However, I do believe the solution is similar to PE's, increase unemployment benefits (though with less workers, there is less tax dollars, so that could be an issue with that) and investment in education, and hopefully we can exist with technology. We are entering a Brave New World, and I am both excited and terrified.

Rather than everyone getting a minimum income, another way this could go is that wages go up (or prices go down) in such a way that you simply have to work much less to make a living, so you could for example choose to not work for several months a year, make much less hours a week, retire earlier and/or start working later. Or work fulltime all year and buy a house or something every year of course..
That last statement shouldn't be taken too seriously since population also keeps increasing and space keeps getting more limited, so the ground prices keep rising until we start colonizing other planets or something..

In the end though, the increased production means more products for the world in total. The thing to worry about is how all the wealth will be shared.. We could easily sustain everyone, but people die of poverty in Africa as we speak.. If the attitude that causes this remains, automation may turn out to be a bad thing..

Total wealth increases, but if the rich decide and are allowed to starve people out of greed, that's going to be an issue.

All this garbage about working less; earning more; guaranteed income. Posh.

There will be no such thing as automation creating a mass of homeless zombies roaming from corporation to corporation. That's nonsense. The truth lies in the economics of automation, where as the need and requirement for these machines exponentially multiply, then the price for these will go up.

The higher price will be evaluated by the buying companies. If the cost savings is a 'no-brainer' then yes, but the manufacturing of these machines will not make their product to be such a low cost. The will set the price point so they can make the most gross margin per unit. If another company comes to undercut the margin, they will have a price war and the cost will go down -- meaning the market will increase.

Meaning all of the suppliers for the automation machines (machine shops, tool shops, screws, bolts, pure industrial companies) will have a boom. The engineering will boom. The IT tech will boom. Freight will boom to supply the global demand.

The products (hot drinks you mentioned) will be serving more volume. The workers that make the products will be hired as additional shifts.

Even at the highest tech company that is being automated, the degree of human labor is still very high. You even still have to have an operator to manage the automatic process. And the machine building for all of this is even larger. The manufacturing tech and design for these things are crazy too -- all human.

Everything equalizes itself. Behind every advancement in tech to limit human interaction, there is an equal impact giving another area of opportunity. Surprisingly much of it is an increase of manual work further up the value stream.

Sorry ag, but I think you're dead wrong. We're going to be facing a massive offset.

Even if 5 million jobs to maintain automated systems are created, if these systems eliminate 50 million jobs, or even 10, that's a deficit.