This latest piece of news about the withdrawal from the truce shows that NK can no longer be considered a rational actor. From this we either have to assume that Kim Jong Il is a diplomat 1824 multi account, or NK is meta-gaming...

Seriously though, it looks as if all bets are off. What we have to do now as a World community is to sit back and let NK make the first aggressive move. The end of that regime cannot become a vortex into which China and the US descend into war. This is very thin ice we are treading on here. Just as thatcher waited for Argentina to invade the Falklands and just as Bush snr waited for Saddam to invade Kuwait, the West cannot take unilateral action.

Speaking as a Brit, can we Europeans afford to see this as a Pacific regional problem and leave them to it? In that sense, is there an 'us' that Europe can or should be included in?

The idea of letting them make the first move is perfect in theory, but given Kim Jong is likely either to:
1) Launch a nuke.
2) Hijack this thread as Diplofool :-P
we have to be prepared for a pre-emptive strike.

diplomat you are such a moron sorry to burst your bubble but launching a nuke isnt the perfect solution to everything, let alone launching nukes

Sub - yes I most definately think we can. We are in no fit state to try and solve other problems at the moment when our nation is in as much trouble already. Yes I know we're still a world power, and my point isn't that we're going to collapse into poverty, but we are in danger of loosing our position in the world hierarchy.

In danger. We haven't lost it yet though, and I think we can most certainly recover - we have before. If for whatever reason a war did start I'm almost certain British and European soldiers would end up fighting in some capacity.

"we have to be prepared for a pre-emptive strike."

Technically, it would be a preventive strike. The difference is international law says preventive war is totally all right.

Again, we just need to wait and see what happens.

Why do people keep fooling themselves into believing that there are rules in war?

we have to remember that Kim Jong Il does not have much more life left. He might view this as his best chance to achieve the total victory his father lacked.

There are rules in war. You're confusing war with TOTAL war. There are no rules in total war, but there hasn't been one of those since WW2.

What are you smoking?

"a major war in Asia is good for NO ONE"

War is ALWAYS good for someone.

but there hasn't been one of those since WW2.

there were rules of war in that too. they were just disobeyed frequently

hey whats up darwyn havent seen you in a while

You're right Thucydides. I meant belligerents tend to obey rules of war in more minor wars than in major ones. The prime examples from WW2 are the Western Front where they were largely obeyed to the Eastern Front where they were ignored completely.

I know this will sound a bit radical but if NK starts a war it will be for one reason and one reason only, it wants a war. And what will US and allied nations do? Give it to them. But why? why play their game, if they launch a nuke at SK will launching nukes on them really be the only answer?

I have no solutions here, but can't believe that a retalitory strike will acheive anything.

"why play their game, if they launch a nuke at SK will launching nukes on them really be the only answer?"

Doing nothing will solve less. Once a nuke is used and caused horrible damage and changed the world forever, we might as well get revenge. It's petty and small, but that's just how things work.

Of course, we'd probably be able to shoot the missile down before it hits or even before it's launched.

We would want revenge because they kill thousands or millions of our people. But if we get revenge, we kill their people and in turn they kill ours, then eventualy we kill the entire planet. I think if a person has that in mind they would find other means of attacking them other than nuking them to the stone age. Why not just get other nations to quickly invade? or do a quick shock and awe?

yea, the best option here is a crippling first strike against NK. However, the way it works with democracies is that they have to be attacked first, so that will never happen.

so the US isnt a democratic state? i think the policy is more like - cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war.
a preemptive strike is a brave choice...but if you fuck up and miss one bomb then the consequences could be the death of millions. and with all the long range artillery aimed at seoul it needs to be a devastating preemptive strike. SK also has the final say on any action undertaken and im not sure they would risk it. the old nutcase kim is old, let him die and then see what we can do to entice the NK back to the table

Kim might be the rational one. It could easily be a bunch of crotchety old generals left over from the Korean War making a stand, or an elaborate ruse to make the world accept Kim's eventual successor, or anything really. None of us knows what's going on in North Korea.

That's the scariest thing, not knowing who's even planning the plan we know nothing about.

Nah, I think Kim's age is more likely to motivate him to drastic action than anything else. But yes, a pre-emptive strike would have to destroy the artillery aimed at Seoul. I completely understand why SK has the final say in this matter.

As for the US, it is only after being attacked and feeling threatened that the US attacked, and even then Americans lost their stomach for it after less than a year.

@Invictus... We would be able to shoot a missile down as its launched

What?! Missile defence doesn't work! When conducting tests, even when the systems have known exactly where the the test missile was going to be and at what time, the defence systems are still yet to actually hit anything!

Pre-emptive action is illegal ininternational law, and unless the Chinese are on side would provoke them tremendously... now there isa power with missiles which can reach the US... Both coasts too.

That's just not true. Missile defense does work. I don't know if we have the radar and other technology in the area (though I'd guess we do, seeing as we've had a totally stable military presence in Japan and Korea for 60 years), but you're just wrong about missile defense. We can shoot down missiles.

http://www.defensetech.org/archives/003761.html

"Pre-emptive action is illegal ininternational law, and unless the Chinese are on side would provoke them tremendously"

First of all, there would be no need for the US to act pre-emptively because there's no way the UN wouldn't just say "go get 'em" if North Korea attacks the South or is about to. If they don't do that then there's no reason to have a UN.

Secondly, China would love to see North Korea go away. There'd be no reason for the US to keep troops on the Asian mainland, the region would become completely stable.

I don't know why you assume China would support the North. How can China afford to look like it supports a country which has opened a serious crisis for seemingly no reason and, in this scenario, used or seriously threatened to use nuclear weapons? It's wrong to think that China would act the way it did during the Korean War. China wants this problem to go away just like we do.

I am a liberal, and while I highly respect those who serve, I do not believe war should at all be a strongly considered alternative to negotiation except in extreme circumstances (ie opressive rule leading to rebellion, a Hitler-like persona breaking treaties and committing crimes agaisnt humanity.)

North Korea is not at that stage yet.

But undeniably they are inching closer.

North Korea is a constant threat to international security, and to South Korean and Japanese interests in particular- if thye do achieve their missile aims, then America, too, becomes a target.

America must deal with North Korea both directly and at the same time non-violently. This is an impoverished nation, a starving nation- do not forget that. Even with its program developing, it still would not have time on its side if it drew out talks with the US.

North Korea cannot feed her people nor sustain its power. It will crumble from within or without if left unchanged.

I ask you all- why shed more American blood when North and South Korean civilians alike may soon rise up and fight the fight that is righrfully theirs.

But let us not have it come to war.

North Korea, in truth, is not the enemy.

Kim Jong Il and his regime are.

This is not a war on a people, this is not nation vs. nation- to an extent. North Korean citizens are opressed, underfed, and mistreated- their only protection at all is from the state.

We must aid the North Koreans.
We must engage in one on one talks.

Radical Republicans have suggested kicking North Korea out of the UN as punishment. That is in fact the last thing we should do. We msut talk more, not less, listen and try to avert another war.

We are occupied in Iraq.
We are occupied in Afganistan.
We must constantly eye Iran and be able to come to Israel's defense if needed (regardless of your politcal postion on Israel, it is strategically necessary to have it existant in the ME. And I am, for the record, strongly Zionist and pro-Israel.)

North Korea still has a way to go before she is a threat to us.

Let us therefore talk with her, talk to her neighbors, and see if we cannot resolve with words what too often swords have failed accomplish. Let us, if military action must be taken, leave it to our allies, the Japanese and South Koreans, to take the lead of the task upon themselves. Let us encourage, if war becomes inevitable, a UN coalition, much like the first Gulf War, in which America is one power among many to fight for Korea's future.

Americans are never afraid to fight, and it is a credit to our nation that they are always ready to do so.

But in this case, a cool head must prevail over a hot temper, and peace and negotiation, however tempting the alternative, must always be the first resort, and its alternative the last.

Looks like if anything happens, it'll happen because a North Korean ship is searched.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8071175.stm

Since there's no troop movements it might be an obscene amount of hot air. These commies are out of their minds!

". Let us, if military action must be taken, leave it to our allies, the Japanese and South Koreans, to take the lead of the task upon themselves. Let us encourage, if war becomes inevitable, a UN coalition, much like the first Gulf War, in which America is one power among many to fight for Korea's future."

obiwanobiwan, a war in Korea would be horrible even without nukes and should be avoided at all costs. But, if it does come to that, saying the US should leave it to South Korea and Japan is wrong. We are legally obligated by treaty to aid in the defense of South Korea, plus we are enforcing a UN ceasefire. We would have a coalition right away if North Korea attacked the South. That coalition is called the United Nations.

"North Korea still has a way to go before she is a threat to us."

She has nukes, and she could easily sell them. Like you said, the country can barely keep the lights on and feed its own people. They need the foreign currency.

You make a good point that this isn't a war on the people of North Korea, but who said it was? The people are just like you and I, albeit with broken spirits living under an unimaginably oppressive communist regime. They are FAR removed from the seemingly nutty decisions the leadership is making.

"We msut talk more, not less, listen and try to avert another war."

Yes, we need to keep on trying to solve it peacefully. We also need to be realistic and come to terms with the idea that a peaceful solution might not be possible in the long run. North Korea will almost certainly not go down like East Germany.

missile defense does work in some cases, and anyway, China cannot afford to anger the American people too much, if they were to intervene in any way other than superficial diplomacy, they'd lose their #1 trading partner for decades. We have a mutually dependent relationship with china.

http://www.11points.com/News-Facts/11_Craziest_Kim_Jong-Il_Moments

i wonder what would happen if someone assassinates Kim Jong...