"But by assuming the worst we force ourselves to believe that a gun fight is the only option and put our families at risk. Far better to work on the basis of the far more likely scenario that the criminal isn't going on a shooting spree for giggles but is thieving for profit. That way we can act in the way most likely to get our families out alive and not end up getting them killed in totally unnecessary action."
@ Oct, no, by assuming the worst you're prepared for that eventuality, however unlikely. If one does as you say, and simply assumes that the guys doesn't want anything to do with hurting you, he simply wants your stuff, you're not prepared if murder, kidnapping, or rape is his only intention. The former covers all the bases, while the latter leave a gaping hole in your contingency plan. Further, you're forgetting a very important point. What about the guy whose original intention is simply to steal property, but as the situation escalates, he panics and now become murderous? This doesn't even have to be due to the victims actions. What if a neighbor saw him climbing into the window and called the police. Now he's cornered, and he decides that he's not going back to prison, that he'll die first. What if he and his accomplice have a fight? There are any number of things that can go wrong during the stress of a burglary. One has to assume that one that is brazen enough to break into someone's home is brazen enough to kill -- to do otherwise is naive.
Moreover, you're assuming that all gun owners are going to simply come out blasting at the first sign of trouble. Nothing could be farther from the truth. In the tactical classes that I've taken we have learned a wide variety of techniques to keep the situation from escalating into a deadly confrontation. First and foremost is that under very limited circumstances, there is no reason to kill over property. If I were awoken a thief carrying away my TV, I wouldn't shoot him -- although, in Texas where I live, I probably could. They taught us to make our presence KNOWN to the intruder, to tell him very loudly, "I have a gun, I've called the police...leave the house now!" The way my house is arranged, I have a tactical advantage over anyone on the ground floor of the house. Again, if I were awoken by an intruder I would arm myself, announce my presence, call the police, and assume my tactical position between him and my family. For him to get to us, he would have to come up a flight of stairs and into the muzzled of 12 gauge loaded with 00 buckshot -- not likely. They also taught us to NEVER corner the intruder if at all possible -- give him an escape route and let him go. Now, there are certain circumstances in which that is not possible. But for the most part, hostilities can be avoided. I can tell you one thing, if you're just looking to steal a TV, and you hear someone rack a shotgun -- an unmistakable sound -- they're going to run like hell. But, if you corner them and make them go through you to get away, well, who knows?