@Favio: Take a look at the S11 position --
gameID=91954, since I forgot the link above.
At this point, it's essentially a race. I am going to lose Rome and Venice. You have trouble defending Berlin from me and maybe Denmark. I also have some short-term counterplay around Italy, but that goes away pretty quickly. That turn, I was able to take the North Sea and keep Berlin empty, which was enough to win. I was also able to guess correctly enough around Italy. However, it was inevitable that by the end of 1912, you were going to have both Rome and Venice, and only at that point can I hold a line [if I let you get into ADR, the line might not even really end there, but if I shift units quickly enough, it can]. So, I needed to take a center off you in the north by 1912, or I cannot win.
Imagine that you had kept NTH that turn and ordered two supports for BAL - Ber. At that point, Kie S Ber and Mun S Ber are going to be enough for a little while. At that point, what are my options? If I cannot take Den or something else off you, then you are on 17, I am on 16, and instead of trying to take Munich, I have to keep Germany in there and take the draw, because if I try to eliminate him and he gets upset, he can throw you a center on his way out. So even when I get to BAL, it's to support Berlin, not to take it. You can also, at that point, keep him in Berlin.
Even worse, I could not both take Greece and keep the Ionian. If I lose the Ionian, I similarly can't hold the line, yet it's the same race I just mentioned -- I need to win before I lose, because I can't draw. The geography is such that I can't hold a line with Ber but not ION or Den.
So basically, I had only two options -- guess perfectly in F11 and take both Den and [Mun or Ber] -- in that case I also probably lose Ven immediately, so a wrong guess means the game is over. Or, guess that I can get the North Sea, which then leaves me a second guess in 1912 to try and get either Den or something else. Again, I must guess right, or else it's a draw/loss.
So at that point, I think it's fair to say that you were ahead. It was obviously closely poised, but given the board in Spring 1911 and the S11 disposition of Germany towards both of us, I'd rather play France than Russia (although you can't order Mun S Kie - Ber because of the Tyr - Mun threat; supporting BAL - Ber is needed unless you are ordering a power-2 attack on Venice as well, which you can't safely...fortunately for you I picked a different risk to take, rather than risking that you might take Ven instead of Rom and I not get Ber, in which case I cannot hold a line and you win).
Pretty complicated endgame, though, which is one of the reasons I chose to play it out even though I felt I was behind.