OK, so it looks like I underestimated people's fear of my solo chances. I wasn't really considering it because France had me totally out-manned at sea, so I would have needed 8 centers to the east without losing any in the west. Maybe I misjudged that., or maybe I just wasn't in the solo-mindset having been fighting for my life for most of the game.
My quick recap:
Started an anti-English coalition in '01 with supports to France and Russia. I like this gunboat opening because it typically eliminates the English threat pretty quickly and leaves a relatively weak Russian northern front to mop up afterwards. The danger is getting sandwiched between F/R if you fall behind in growth. It seems to be going to plan but then England collapses much to quickly and France has a massive advantage over me. And his fleets keep coming north. I preemptively take BEL and SWE to get my navy up to scratch.
Try and hold the line with Russia against French incursions...
Italy helps out a lot with his move to MAR. I was surprised F didn't cover that, but not displeased. Take my chance to go on the offensive and maybe try to claim the west, but get distracted by Russia's stab, which thankfully I'm able to counter.
I think this juncture (c.a. '07, '08) was critical. Russia is weak to me, and the east doesn't look like sorting itself out very quickly. I decide it would be powerful if F and I make up and head east, being the 2 biggest powers at that point (I think). I try and signal peace with two army builds, but that's probably not enough of a cue in hindsight. I do offer supports from Paris, though. I'd be curious to see why Lando didn't want to try that out.
My peace offerings backfire and I spend a long time fighting for my life against France/Russia...
Italy's second westward push is a massive relief. I somehow wriggle out of my horrible position and clean up Russia/Scandinavia while France is busy with the green man.
I get delusions of grandeur and try for a solo shot by moving to the Channel. I have grand ideas of convoying BEL-BRE. France anticipates it and the most short-lived stab ever comes to an end.
At the end I held out on the draw vote because I wanted to get it down to 3. I thought that by offering support to Italy into VIE was enough of a signal, and I really didn't consider myself a solo threat. I mean, even if I got BEL from France, I still would have needed all Austria and the Balkans; I couldn't see myself winning a naval war in the north.
Gg all.