@NoFog Yeah. I don't really disagree - but I'm basically not sure that it would make any significant difference in any Italian decision to stab or not. One could possibly even argue that delaying Austria makes it less likely for Italy to stab.

BBBUUUMMMPPPPPPPPPPPP

russia is hoping for a three way draw. a german solo is just as likely, though.

pause ends tomorrow.

Austria in Naples, WTF. Whilst all Austrian home SCs are full, and no prospect of clearing one safely to build in. I mean, it's spring, maybe Austria intends to sail out? In which case, waste of tempo, still WTF.

Russian moves are good though. :-) If not for them, I'd be congratulating Germany on a solo. As it is, maybe not.

we'll be wiser in a few hours.

...

Nap-Apu? Hehe.

This is gonna be interesting from here. :-) Horrible tactical choices all over the board.

russia builds f stp (nc) - 4way draw incoming?

Iberia/France is fascinating. :-) I dunno about a draw - All countries (excepting Turkey) have opportunities for progress yet, and I don't think any country is yet in a position where they can't be eliminated, either. And it's HDV, so it's a lot harder for non-obvious draws to succeed, since there's none of that "well, lots of others are setting draw" pressure.

you're likely right - hdv might be the deciding factor in this.

boring 4-way draw.... or... Austria goes for 2 russian centers this year and bets for the Italy + Austria vs Germany scenario that was the natural thing to happen before Austria NMRed and that fuckingly LOL-provoking italian attempt to stab Austria.

Alas, poor Turkey... *fires up the kebab grill*

Russia: Good guessing on the doublethink - I would have gone with that too.

Germany: Ahh, didn't go with the triple think? :-) Or maybe you flipped a coin, sometimes I do that when stuck with a 50/50. Oh well. Disband and build in Mun? Tough call - having a fleet loose in the Med to be the equivalent fly of Italy's loose northern fleet might be tempting. But Italy has a lot more spare fleets...

@principians: Is there any good reason why Italy should press draw? Italy is under barely any threat (sure, there's a shooting match with Germany but if anything Italy has the upper hand), and has plenty of opportunity for growth.

Austria too - G/R are pretty much fully engaged - and Italy is clearly looking to not hold a grudge... So growth could come from attacking Russia, and he's in pretty good position to do that.

I can totally see Russia and Germany pressing draw, but not Austria or Italy.

new phase.

Here we go - for anyone reading who *doesn't* play a lot of gunboat, Italy's Ven H may seem mysterious - in a non gunboat game, it'd probably be a whole lot better to clear Ven, build A Ven, and send it to Tyr, all with Austria's (highly likely to be available) agreement and approval.

In gunboat? That's a signal to Austria "Please, you build three armies and go north, let's not confuse matters by having an Italian army there to get in the way".

I'd say A/I is pretty much 100% go - and if either of A/I pressed draw at this point I would be astonished, let alone both of them pressing draw along with G/R.

It *might* still turn into a A/I/G 3WD once Russia is gone, but that's all years away yet.

Why another fleet Austria, why?

Heh, that is a very a good question. I'm thinking Austria thinks he can solo by finishing off Russia, holding off Germany, and taking out Italy. Austria may even be right. Alternately, he's just paranoid about Italy.

with the fleet build and italy moving against austria, a three-way draw is the most likely outcome now, right? i mean, italy won't be able to overpower both germany and austria.

Hrm, I thought so too, but looking at the board closely, I'm not actually sure.

The northwest of the map is messy - I *think* all that will happen if I/G continue to fight there is that they'll end up randomly exchanging SCs, but it's always possible that one of them could suddenly come out on top.

And Austria has moved a whole bunch of units out of the way, so he's not going to be in a decent position to actually *attack* Italy (or Germany) for a while. Austria is clearly signalling for the 3WD, so it's down to A/G finishing off Russia next year, then we get to find out.

I think it's just going to depend what happens in the northwest during that year.

Also, I was clearly wrong with my guess as to why Austria was building F Tri - seems it was part of the intention to signal 3WD. F Tri *can't* attack Germany, and it's not even all that useful for attacking Italy, since it can basically only hit Venice. It'd take more than a year to attack anywhere else with it, and Austria had other fleets that were better positioned to take the Ionian and maybe the Adriatic too, in not that much longer a time frame, if attacking Italy was the point.

F1912M:

Prediction of I/G continuing to fight and come out even maybe swapping SCs true so far...

Russia is mostly dead (but not fully dead yet, still has units, would still be included if draw happened now).

Let's see how far into next year we get. :-) I do think there's still reasons for all three powers to avoid clicking draw though.

my guess it that this will be drawn very soon. i don't see a path to a solo for anyone tbh.

Not drawn yet, and Spring 1913 happened pretty quick... :-)

Looks to me like Austria is sorting out the eastern stalemate line. I think Gal-War would have been flat out better than Ukr-War for that, but oh well. They've got their fleets sorted out to steam into the Med to make a line in case Italy collapses, too. I would guess they have Draw set.

Italy appears to maybe be on the downside of the western front, that was a bad season. Wouldn't surprise me if they had Draw set too.

Germany is up on the western front... but I'm not really counting to 18 SCs even if they do completely smash Italy. On the other hand, if they *do* smash Italy on the western front (which I give quite a lot better than even odds now), then it looks like it could end up a "natural" 17/17. And just maybe a solo if Austria messes up on the eastern line and loses Warsaw or Moscow. I'd be surprised if Germany had a draw flag set.

my count is a bit different, and according to it, Germany still can hope to reach 18. Not that it would be easy.

Is there some way for Germany to get to 18 without winning one of Warsaw/Moscow (and hanging on to it)? Which, I agree, is entirely possible, if not guaranteed.

I'm assuming Italy collapses and they win all of England and Iberia (which is not guaranteed yet either). That gets them to 17 unless they have War/Mos.

I haven't analysed it super closely, but I don't think Germany can win a race to Tunis or an Italian home SC, assuming Austria is on the ball. Might not be, though. :-)

Austrian Shore Leave is over, fleets are all sailing... To the edge of the Ionian.

Italy did alright and came out not-dead. Germany took Warsaw but lost Munich, that whole stalemate line thing doesn't look so good.

Might be Austria's turn to unset Draw, if they ever had it set in the first place...

Game Drawn.

GG to all. It was really close, but I got outplayed and had to settle.

Short EOG: Germany

Early on I was stuck in an unprofitable war against England until the stab on France presented itself. From then on I quickly ate up the north of France and England with my new builds and snowballed to a sizable lead. I had almost removed Italy from the Atlantic side of the seas.

Then Russia unfortunately stabbed. I had considered moving to Norway that turn but thought that Russia would wait a bit more to stab. Turns out I was wrong, and maybe he was wrong too. Through some good fortune and active play I managed to hold Italy off while I destroyed Russia with Austria. He did collapse a bit faster than I had expected though.

The final turns were hectic. After I raced to Warsaw first I knew I had an outside shot of winning. It would entail me keeping at least one of Warsaw and Moscow, and cleaning up all of France, England and Iberia. Tunis was really unlikely - Austria had fleets waiting.
So

Acknowledgements:

Special props to Italy. Your play was extremely tenacious, I think I could have won if a lesser player had your position.

Very solid play by Austria apart from the NMR. I personally thought you were playing not to lose rather than to win, which is a very drawish playstyle, and you achieved your goal. I was hoping for some more exciting fireworks in the East :(

Early on I decided to stab France while fighting England with Russia. I did not set out with the stab in mind, but I must admit I was somewhat swayed by the peanut gallery discussion. I decided to take a big risk with the French stab but it paid off handsomely. So sorry to France and England, you just got unlucky.

As for Russia...we worked well together early on. Your stab probably was advisable but really shot my chances of winning, and killed you in the end. I'm not sure what you could have done differently - maybe waited a bit longer so you were indispensable to Austria by the time you stabbed? Maybe thorfi et al. will have some better ideas.

Turkey...you really didn't stand much of a chance and I didn't pay that much attention. Sorry.

Ugh. As France, I started out badly. England and Germany started fighting, allowing me to remain neutral. It was good that I could stay out of their fight, since I guessed wrong in 01 and Italy took Marseilles. In the following years, I knew I could stalemate Italy indefinitely as long as no one interfered. However, the peanut gallery put me on edge, with their discussions about how Germany wasn't going to be able to make gains into England. I knew Germany would come after me sooner or later. After stalemating Italy for two years, I realized I needed to get somewhere on that front; otherwise Germany would see an opening and take it. Taking the risk against Italy didn't pay off. Germany attacked as I made my move, and I messed up tactically I got trashed by Germany and Italy.