I am about to re-read your analysis which after a quick glance looks very well done, nice job. One thing strikes me though, yoyo hinted at being down and phil straight out said he was town also on page 1, why did you ignore this,

I also am not going to respond as you think I am, I do not think I will be the first turn Lynch, hell there is very little pressure on me right now.

SS: If you admit both that there is no threat of it at all, then why should the hypothetical Jeff-Mafia treat you as a threat at all?

Oh, the word "both" doesn't really belong there. I just wanted to say it.

My only two reads right now are of Espi and Deathllama and they are very slight town. Espi sounds like he's trying to get the hang of things and I'd say that Deathllama is the most involved person as of yet, though TrPrado is a close second.

@Yoyo,

I just posted a detailed analysis of Espi, reading him mafia. You then posted a single sentence saying you think he's "trying to get the hang of things." That is extremely lazy. Take a moment to read my arguments and engage with them if you actually want to convince anyone and are not merely posting for posting's sake.

Ohhh, do I see slacker is online? Hopefully his input could put a little jive into this discussion. Meanwhile, I'll look back at phil.

Lol well everyone's townread of me, while short lived, was fun while it lasted.

@Balki
all of the evidence you used highly suggests that he is a very clueless townie. This doesn't seem like the type of thing the mafia would pull. But maybe you're right. This is definitely something to revisit down the line, but as far as our first lynch goes, is a poor choice. I would like to hear his rebuttal though, as it should be interesting.

Findings (or lack thereof) on phil_a_s:
Throughout page 1, phil goes through a torrent of joke posting. He does it a bit more on page 2, but contributes by saying that the cop claiming would be "giving scum a target for their second kill." DL questions this, and phil brings up that cop starts up with a confirmed town, and at this assumes that in their claim, the cop would necessarily say who this town is.
He questions on page 3 how ND can have actual thoughts so early, and then just a few posts later votes for Espi "because contradictions." This ALMOST feels like a contradiction in itself, but then he does base this on what Espi's own posts say. When asked what phil means by contradictions, and he follows with Espi's posts talking about how he won't vote, but at the same time calls on town to pull information about him even though "the standard testing method is votes." He then says he was just doing Espi a favor. But I don't understand what exactly he means by this or why he would want to do anyone a favor.
No real substance in his posts on page 4, and on page 5 he defends the notion of using bullshit random votes this early in the game.
Then on page 6 he describes guak's behavior as typically without activity for the first few days, the purpose for which guak elaborates shortly thereafter.
The last bit is him explaining to Espi what would happen if Espi claimed scum and named off 2 buddies, then explains to Espi why he should use "townread" instead of "trust." And then he's gone.

Overall, this doesn't really change the NULL read. There isn't much actual substance to work with here, especially since the bulk of his posts were all on a single page (3).

EXHIBIT 1
I didn't mean it as bragging but I could see that it can very easily be seen as such. I had meant to say that should I be an early Lynch, I want people looking back on my posts with that statement from post 1, knowing that I was Town and seeing the direction I plan to take, much as you did in your first post. While mine is not as eloquent as yours, I had the same intention, well maybe not exactly the same. If you notice, while my posts aren't saying a lot, they are the ones being viewed the most right now. Hopefully that helps later on as more early information can be gained from me.

EXHIBIT 2
I saw some discussion like this in the previous Mafia and wanted to see if I could encourage some discussion on the matter, so that we could all have a stated consensus. I also wanted to see who would try to steer the conversation here, as likely one of the conversation leaders would be Mafia or none of them would be Mafia. This failed.

EXHIBIT 3
Poorly worded and I thought so at the time, still posted, ahh well. I wanted this stated out in the open. I have played some RL games where a new player states their role early on and ruins the game for the rest of us. Not as likely here but still a precaution. I am not seeing the unsure part of it, is it the might as well part of my quote?

EXHIBIT 4
His vote was a joke, likely, but he has voted as such several times and I wanted to know why, did he really think I was scum or was he just trying to start somewhere? I also wanted to start a discussion as I said above. My words just happen to be how I usually speak and I can see how they could look put on, you will get used to this after talking with me for a while. The joke was based on paranoia, and since it fit the theme and most of the other posts were joking, I wanted to be semi-serious with this post. Also I don't know Guak or Jeff well enough to be sure of which Guak meant, can I get some clarification on that @Guak.

EXHIBIT 5
I swear I have a plan, we will see if it works.

EXHIBIT 6
Nothing to comment on.

EXHIBIT 7
Sorry for not making sense, but no one else has pointed this not making sense out, perhaps you are the only one? I want to misguide the Mafia into thinking I believe them when really I don't. This has a pro and a con, the pro is the Mafia might want me alive as I support their claims, the con is it gives wrong into to the Town, we shall see if I continue to do this or not. Yes it hurts us, but if I am right, it might very well help us. No one in here knows me very well yet, my taking this risk could just turn the game in our favor, so I might as well try.

EXHIBIT 8
I didn't think that Jeff was targeting me, I just thought that any conversation he and I had (an intuition) would be useful later on. Sadly he has not targeted me as much as I would like, and now my read on him is waning. I felt that he would be hard to convince and if I was able to convince him, I could convince everyone else. The last part about my being a day 1 Lynch was more for people looking back to see that my Town claim is true and to wonder why I was Lynched. I do not think anyone would Lynch me, but it was a possibility at that time, that possibility has since dwindled.

EXHIBIT 9
Sorry, the defensive part is my writing style (poor excuse eh) but I hope to prove this to you as the game goes on. I am very suspicious now aren't I? :P

EXHIBIT 10
Being a target in my mind is both good and bad. By being an early target and keeping a certain view toward possible Mafia, we can see who might be Mafia later on based on the voting trends. If I die, it serves a purpose and this early on doesn't really weaken the Town. It also ensures that the Cop does not accidentally die on turn 1.

EXHIBIT 11
I put myself out as a target to be nibbled on, some people are actively trying to test me, others are completely ignoring this, both are suspicious in my mind. Am I wrong in this? My actions have been very scummy, those not thinking I am scum are either ignoring me for now, don't think I am a threat, or something else I can't think of right now. I want to know why only a few people are taking this opportunity to question me. Is it Town lead or Scum?

CONCLUSION:
I am being very scummy now, and I am trying to judge a lot based on how people are reacting, or not reacting, toward that. Very illuminating so far but we shall see if I am correct or not later down the road.

Also, you haven't answered my question yet.

I am not very satisfied with my answers, but as a lot of my premise is based on "wait and see" I don't have a good explanation for what I am doing. I am interested in your reply as I am certain I did not satisfy all of your questions. Which of my responses stands out most toward you? Is there anything else that I should spend more effort on explaining?

So essentially you're being scummy on purpose?

Well, not on purpose. My actions came off as scummy, which I see now, so I am using that to my advantage, hopefully. Also as I am a newer player, my death keeps better players in the game so why not continue? My actions helped Tr in his phil analysis, which I agree with, so it must be working a little.

BTW all, I do apologize, this is very scummy of me right now, but I haven't been getting a lot of sleep lately and its affecting my work now, so I should probably be off before I spend all night on here. I will get back to everyone who has questions for me tomorrow. Good luck to all of the Town and I look forward to reading all of the updates tomorrow.

Page #9 Questions

These are some questions that I have accumulated since leaving on Page 5. I do have a guest over so don’t expect an immediate answer from me. Just tag me with and @ symbol if you need me. I shall return in due time to respond to any responses to my questions.

@Espi: “I am also trying to answer questions (the majority of which are at me) while trying to find out the Mafia. As such I am not putting as much effort into my posts now, as that means I am spending less time answering other questions and finding the Mafia.” (Page 5)

-So are you admitting you are not putting much time into answering your questions (thought process)? If so then what is your findings in regards to the Mafia?-

“I am trying to make myself into a target and am wondering why those who could target me, are not?”

-Why are you trying to make yourself a target? You goal should be to scumhunt not muddle and confuse the thread that is scummy.

@DL: “While I don’t think it’s scummy instead of just a huge difference in playstyle, Balki’s dismissal of pressure votes kind of irks me.” (Page 5)

-Why does it irk you? Are people not allowed to play differently than you?-

@DL: Can you explain your ‘reads’ on Page 7. They seem very bare-bones to me.

@DL: Lol “He’s still working on his giant post apparently” Um I said I was taking notes and I would try to get something out tonight. I got a guest over at the moment, but wanted to check in and post. Expect something before Day’s end.

@Guak: “You are saying I am joking. I am not. Right now my vote being on bo makes as much sense as on anyone else because none of us has a clue of what we are doing.” (Page 6)

-Actually (Page 6) it is now Page 9. We gave 9 pages of material, interactions, evidence, and connections. Is BO still you best vote?

@SaladinSmith: “Jeff is mafia. This is the truth! This is my belief!... at least for now.”

-Do you have any evidence other than randomness?

@SaladinSmith: “Then my mafia buddies could back me up, hopefully with another innocent vote or two, and it would look like popular opinion” (Page 8)

This seems scummy to be at first glance can you elaborate on it more?

@All: Everyone voting BO please tell me why you are voting him and not the other people who have not posted yet? Seems like you are picking and choosing lurkers and for those of you who have climbed on this bandwagon since it started (Guak, TrPrado) it seems that you are simply following Jeff’s initial vote.

@DL and Espi: Why does Saladin strike you as Wjessop? Two completely different posters in my opinion. Wjessop is constantly attacking and questioning. Saladin dropped a vote and left. No similarities in my opinion.

@Balki and @Espi: I saw Balki’s long post and Espi’s replies. I want to dig deeper and post more about both when I get the chance (after guest leaves) so I am leaving this thought unfinished until I return.

Yeah, Espi. It is a bit scummy. More than a bit.
If I weren't so interested in pressuring bo right now, I might change my vote. My esteem for your innocence is fading. :P At least you put up a defense against a reasonable case, so that's good.

Where are the others?!?

DL: On page 5, you said the following:
"Also guys, ffs, don't claim vanilla town"
Could you elaborate on this? Mafia won't claim Mafia, and the cop, as we've all pointed out, shouldn't claim cop, so there's nothing really left to claim.

Ok, I've had an opportunity to read through the entire thread now.

Yoyo asked my opinion on those most active so far. Honestly, I think everyone is taking shots in the dark at this point. There seems to be a standard forum strategy, and those of us who haven't played in this forum before have very different ideas about how things should be done.

I have no strong suspicions of anyone at this point.

TrPrado asked why the hypothetical Jeff-mafia should see me as a threat at all. I'm not hoping that he sees me as a threat. I think I've been pretty explicit that I'm not threatening anyone at this point. I'm voting to lynch to attract attention to myself so that the town has more information about who I dislike and who dislikes me.That way, if one of the the aforementioned people dies tonight, it will mean something. Right now, I don't see anything that's happened so far as meaning anything at the moment.

The only thing that I could see as having meaning before anyone dies is if there are a large number of votes for a particular person. If there were, for example, five votes for bo at one point, I would believe that the people who voted for him had a slightly higher chance of being mafia than a random sample of our population.

No ND, I have no evidence whatsoever that Jeff is mafia. The odds are roughly 1/13. But I'm sticking with my vote because votes on the first day are random either way. We're all taking shots in the dark, and it's only after someone turns up dead that it matters who was shooting at who. But it's important for us all to be shooting because otherwise that first person to turn up dead tells us absolutely nothing. And that's why I'm shooting at Jeff.

My previous assertion that “Jeff is mafia. This is the truth! This is my belief!... at least for now.”is a paraphrased quote from a work of some literary merit that I grew up with. It is intended to express that I firmly believe that I should stick with what I've said, while acknowledging that I could be (and probably am) wrong.

I'm sticking with my vote, and I'm going to bed.

Jesus Christ Espi, that was a terrible rebuttal.

@Sal
what are your thoughts on Balki's case on Epsi?

@SS - how do you intend to no-lynch while still having everybody vote?

Hi all.

I take it the votes against me are a joke, but they're kind of stupid at this stage. Guak, we have nothing going back, as you say. You bussed the fuck outta me once, that's about it. I hate your play style and you hate mine. So what? Jeff, you're always 100% vanilla townie guaranteed, so your motives must be reasonable, right? TrPrado, we're getting damn near page 10 as I write this, so let's quit the jokes.

@Balki … why did DeathLlama "stand out the most" in saying a lot but saying nothing when you posted to him earlier? What was different about him that inclined you to post at him?

@Espi … you defended yourself against a pretty solid case, coherently at times. Toward the end, you tend to go down the line of saying things like "oh, I'm so scummy, I know" - why? And how can you use the fact that you're scummy to your advantage? If you're town, how in the everliving fuck does your death help us at all? It doesn't keep better players in the game, it keeps scum in the game.

@Saladin … glad you came around. Question, though - how are day 1 votes random? Moreover, why should they be random? There was just a solid case against Espi and a pathetic response. Why not use that as a starter? Why not build your own case against Espi? Why not look for early connections from Espi unto others if you believe he is scum? If you don't, why not look off of Jeff? He seems to be the only one you care about. Votes on day 1 can be unintelligent, sure, and often times, they are mistakes, but the same can be said for other days. We have information out of day 1 if we go after it and try to find scum. If we're wrong, we look for ways to right the course. If we go at it randomly, day 1 is a waste.

@Yoyo ... Balki called you out on being lazy and now you ask Sal no questions based on his own words, only a single question on someone else's case. It's fine to ask broader questions like that, but why is that the only thing you can be bothered to do?

@ND
Q1 - Balki made it seem like he disliked pressure votes, which meant he was just going to sit around for the first bit of the game. Since then it's been clarified.
Q2 - Coming up
Q3 - This is not a question, but apologies for being so pushy
Q4 - He doesn't AT ALL, Balki sort of does

@Tr - it's literally pointless and if anything it narrows down cop suspects for the mafia a bit if they take it seriously. You shouldn't claim at all because claiming d1 isn't great

@Bo
Yes.

@ND
My reasoning at the time was simply to put pressure on someone who had been on and offline a number of times including just before the game start, yet had not posted. Lucland said before the game started that he would be gone for a while.
Now that bo's here, though, ##VOTE americaslacker

*Here and actually participating. Looking at you, guak.

Tr, to be fair Lucland said their meeting ended 1:30 ago

##VOTE Espi

I don't buy his response that he a) has a clue what the mafia are looking for and how he can draw them out, b) needs time to "wait and see" if his plan plays out, and c) that he has a plan at all. He has a lot to answer to. I'll leave the vote till he does.

@ND, here's a compilation of what I thought on pg7

SLIGHT TOWN - BALKI
I'm leaning town on Balki, nice well-thought-out posts. He could just be Wjessop, of course. At least he's not Goldfinger.
SLIGHT SCUM - SALADIN
he just dropped in (he "usually plays" on a different place too, so he should at least know how to play) - he then says he should lynch on the first day (Wow!) and says:

"we have no real information the first day, so my vote is effectively random..." and then proposes to not try to collect any information and essentially random-votes Jeff.

Then he disappears. Scummy scum scum!
SLIGHT SLIGHT SCUM - GUAK
[Isn't] really contributing, and your explanation seemed kind of invalid considering that most people are just gathering info to use in cases later on.
NEED REREAD -
ESPI
I don't know what to make of Espi. Initially I leaned town for gut reasons and now I lean scum for gut reasons. I'll make a detailed reread of him when there's more information
PHIL
I haven't seen as high-quality posts from Phil as he usually makes, but he hasn't done anything that's standout scummy so IDK

@Balki -

"I think that his very first post of the game pushes me over the top to reading him mafia. It just doesn't make sense that a vanilla townie would claim as such on page 1..." Why?