>>@ND way to cherry pick my post, except not really. <<

“inferring that TrPrado and I are mafia and I just could disagree more.”

Where exactly did Meme say that about you?

>> He doesn’t , but if you’re using his arguments to clear yourself as town. Which you are, and accuse me of being mafia, how about you pay attention? It’s actually in my post, which you claim to have read. And then accuse me of not reading. Nice touch.

Here it is again for your convenience: <<

“MEME: I know I’m reiterating my argument here, but I feel that it’s extremely important that it is not discounted. Phil’s reads were ordered in a very specific way – usually everyone posts a player list with ‘Null’, ‘Slight Scum’, ‘Town’ and whatever written next to them, but Phil wrote the players down in order from most scummy to least. The fact that ND was at the bottom of that list, and was the only true townread on it, shows that if Phil had been the Cop then ND was his innocent scan.”

>> Do you think that meme would have missed the fact that you’re on the bottom and that I’m at the top? So, yes he was inferring me. <<

“ Because Phil..”

Are you literally responding to a read from 53 from a dead person?

>>Yes, indeed, sir. Because the whole point is that meme’s case is based on this read. <<

“No way man, get real. **”

Seriously? Phil died. Did you read meme’s argument about why Phil and his reads are important? It’s about cop searching.

>> yes, Sir, did YOU read my whole post pointing out that it’s FLAWED? Nope, because you are the problem. <<

“Do you not see the pattern here of the older more experienced guys getting to beat up and scapegoat the newer younger players.

More of your anti-town behavior and arguments I see.

>> That’s a convenient way to dismiss the possibility of what I’m saying. There is a club here. It’s present and it’s real and it has shown up ALL over this game. Your dismissal doesn’t invalidate it. Gives further credence to it, seeing as how you too fit in this group. But, thanks for your thoughtful and respectful response. I’ll be sure to keep that in mind when I’m recruiting friends to sign up. <<

“it may be - that of the remaining of us (and Jeff) killing Phil was about taking attention off wherever the focus was going during this phase.”

Who is “US” + Jeff. I assume you mean yourself, Jeff, and ? (bo) ?

>> Nope. Us being YOU, Bo, Prado, SS and me. I include Jeff, because we know he’s mafia now. But the focus needs to be here. That’s the point. But I’m sure you know that. <<

@All: “I mean besides Bo, who else has really put out a case on Jeff that had ANY merit? Again, my thought is it possible they were looking for the cop, sure. Is it possible the kill was meant to distract from something else.”

This is exactly what the mafia (Lucland and Bo) want you to think and one of the key points to the Jeff-Lucland-Bo analysis in Part 2 and 3. More on this to come later, but remember this quote from Lucland.

>> Really? Again a convenient way of dismissing my questions… <<

The rest reads like an angry rant.

True. You can’t give me a free pass because of Captainmeme’s work.

>>And that’s 100% crucial to the end game. Everything else is a distraction from this point. If we mislynch here we LOSE.<<

However, I hope everyone who is town (obviously not you) looks at it in-depth and his earlier case from 79.

>>Read it and reread, and …? <<

No one is getting a free pass here. Meme’s townclear case on me however is the closest town is going to get to a confirmed town besides TrPrado’s town EOD D3 statements.

>> Very convenient. Good for you. This will be the point that burns the most if you walk out of here with the win. The fact that you were townread and absolved of all suspicion. Free ticket to ride. I would argue that’s exactly why meme got the ax. Much harder to suspect you. Except, wait. . . <<

Now, TrPrado could STILL be mafia, but I am inclined to say no until re-reads or new questions are called into question.
>> Yes, right. Agreed. But how is it that we should take meme’s last read that you are town and Prado is mafia. Big problem with this. I think he’s wrong on both counts. <<

I’m not voting TrPrado today. I am voting bo.

>> Yeah, we know. And when Bo flips town. Mafia wins. So, there’s that. <<

Fake cop softing/breadcrumbing is reason enough to vote for him because anyone who knows the game knows a VT fakeclaiming is damning. Basically forcing the town to choose between the VT fake claiming and the cop real claiming. It wouldn’t happen. That is why bo (only bo) was preparing softing throughout so if the mafia did not get a chance to kill the cop they could fake claim and confuse the town at MYOL.

>> I would like to hear more on this myself. <<

@All: Lucland’s wall of text here reads like an angry rant. Almost as if a two year old got told off by his mummy then went out and stomped on an ant hill in rage. There is a lot going on here and probably the closest thing we will get to a mafia confirmation in this game. Clearly, Lucland is upset about Captainmeme’s final post. Vote bo first, vote lucland next cycle and town wins.

>> Oh, that’s your best insult? You are an ass. You don’t know people at all. And again, just because you say it doesn’t make it so. I suggest you stop using words like clearly and obviously, it makes you sound like an idiot, a pretentious idiot. <<

Part 2 coming sometime tomorrow, Part 3 coming before EOD #5.

>> I for one, cannot wait. <<

>> This is the moment. This is the stand. We cannot fail. <<

"the rest is a OMGUS"

I don't know what this means, care to enlighten me?

If the stats are Bo or ND, AND we are ALL agreeing to that, then make no mistake, we HAVE to get it right. And for me the choice is ND.

##vote_ND

An example of OMGUS is your vote on ND. It stands for "Oh My God U Suck" and is a reactionary way of play that pretty much revolves around suspecting and pressuring people simply for suspecting and pressuring you.

Lucland: Why are you giving bo a free pass, as you call it, to be considered town?

And, wait, what about me? Detailed and logical case against me or not, I'm the closest thing to cleared as town there is right now. So why don't you complain that I'm also pretty much getting a "free pass?"

D2-N2 Suspect Analysis Part 2

This will be the second installment of the Jeff-Lucland-Bo feature. Today we will look at Day 2 through Night 2. The Third Part will sum up the remainder of the game from D3-Present. Pages 34- 54 with a focus on Jeff, Lucland, Bo and their misdeeds for the day.

Let’s start with bo’s fabled Jeff is scum case on page 34.

“Jeff is scum. I got a hell of a scummy reaction out of him before. It confirmed an annoying suspicion I have had since I skimmed over him at the beginning of the night.” (bo, 34)

Much of this argument is based on Jeff’s most current reads and how he downgrades people based on the BB vote, but not bo. Here is what bo said:

“Here's the thing - I questioned Jeff. I came after him, not Espi, and as a result, he doesn't think to downgrade Espi, only me. He is more worried about making a point to me, so he alters his own reads in order to please me and to threaten me at the same time. In doing so, he completely forgets that I asked a two-part question. That's exactly how mafia thinks. It's about as scummy a thing you can do.”

Here we have bo who is likely on a team with Jeff calling Jeff out publically for this mistake in an attempt to lead a wagon on Jeff. We have two possibilities here. Either bo is setting Jeff up and the case up for an attempt to lead a later wagon against Jeff (which we see) or bo is a legit VT and it’s a genuine case. Former and later evidence makes me suspect that he is mafia attempting to lay out the foundation for a Jeff push in the later game to earn him credibility. Credibility because of his team knowledge that Jeff is in fact mafia.

Bo’s reaction to DL’s death: “He was basically confirmed town. It's not a huge shock. RIP.” (bo, 35) Bo comes out the gate after this statement by voting for Jeff. In addition to this Lucland begins the day by posting his reads.

Why doesn’t he post his reads at EON D1? Well because he knows there is no risk of him getting night killed. So he posted them at day start to inform and help push the day’s discussion. Notice the recurring theme here of him leading with his anti-town playstyle: “Overall, I'm suspicious of the experienced ones more than the others. all this weird jargon and abbreviations.” (Lucland, 35). Lucland says this about Jeff: “Jeff Kuta - town, IDK, word salady, obviously a regular. kinda like, also a bit "this is how it is."” And this about bo: “bo_sox48 - balki bandwagon, don't like, but makes me think differently. What's your read? I'm curious.” (Lucland, 35). His words are filled with like/don’t like feelings no evidence. Other than that they are total garbage reads. Clearly no time/thought put into it. Odd reads and I think meant more as a distraction than anything else really. Claims he posted these without knowing DL was killed too btw which could mean several things.

Bo helps to prod up some Guak suspicion on Page 37, “That’s not a good reason to vote for someone as town. That’s a great reason to vote for someone as mafia.” (bo, 37) We of course know that Guak was not mafia now, but wants us to think that Guak was mafia in the lead up to the Guak mislynch D2. At EOD Bo asks for the Guak case and gets no real answer yet on 37 was casting doubt on Guak and helping to fuel the wagon’s fuel.

We see one of Bo’s first cop softs on Page 37, “Don't worry about it too much guak, he's town. Have you seen my case on Jeff?” Here is bo pretending to confirm.. Espi is town at the start of D2. Literally softing cop and affirming Espi as town as a “scan”.

Here are Guak’s reads on Page 37:
People I am willing to vote for today, based on information up to this point:
phil (case coming)
SS (not pursuing his top scum reads)
TrPrado (old case)
Jeff Kuta (case coming)
I think two of these 4 are likely mafia with the third party being a lurker a la Yoyo, Luc or meme.

Here we see that he got one scum correct (JEFF). Phil was incorrect and a townie. We do not know the status of SS/TrPrado. We know yoyo/meme to be town. Which leaves his last three suspects as ONE MAFIA at Lucland. ONE MAFIA at TrPrado/SS. Now I think we can eliminate TrPrado as a potential scum suspect for now due to the EOD D3 townslip.

Which would leave Guak’s final two suspects at Lucland/SS as scum. I am inclined to disagree now that I know that Bo softed all game, but I do agree on Lucland. Lucland’s case on 38 is fairly strange. I don’t really understand what he is getting at other than Guak is town as he states.

Guak: “Thus, with no incentive for mafia to move their vote around near EoD at most there may be one mafia in there.” (Guak, 38)

I now know this to be totally true. At most there is one vote there and at worst there is no mafia votes there which would make the wagon completely town driven. CHALLENGE: Go back through former mafia games and count how many totally town driven wagons there are. Literally just a few paragraphs later Lucland comes back and votes Guak. What a flip flopper. Just minutes before he thought Guak was town. As soon as Guak places suspicion on Lucland, Lucland votes Guak.

Lucland forwards and re-posts bo’s case on Guak on 38. Tells bo that “That read on guak is spot on.” (Lucland, 39). Here is Lucland attacking bo and me in the same statement this is right after he compliments bo by the way: “See? This is EXACTLY the problem with you and ND, you don't even take ownership of the fact that your flawed system FAILED you here. It's just straight up arrogance. My god.” (Lucland, 39).

Here is another bo soft from Page 39: “I know the read is spot on. I've played as guak's partner and his opponent and I know how he operates. My reads at EON are meant to be reviewed if I die, and I was saying specifically to all of you that if I die, watch for guak bussing. It's what he does.” (Bo, 39)

The interesting thing here is that bo says his reads are meant to reviewed in the event of his death. What would this make you think at the time and in retrospect? Well that bo is the cop. If a time ever came where he needed to claim cop and there was a competing claim he could point back to this as a breadcrumb. Saying, hey those reads, you know had important information in them because I breadcrumbed and I am cop. Of course now we know yoyo was the cop and this is a further example of a false breadcrumb by bo, a fake trail he planted in the event he ever had to claim, which we know would be damning for a VT to do. A VT as experienced as bo would never fake claim which would only hurt the cop. It’s a mafia fake breadcrumb trail.

On Page 40 we see bo reiterate his point from D1 where he asked for reads. Again he asks for reads here: “I would appreciate it if we could get more cases, more scumhunting, more reads, and a fair bit of input from everyone as we approach the halfway mark of the day” Now why would someone repeatedly and even bossily ask for read lists? Hint: cop phishing.

Captainmeme understood this on Page 40 when he labeled bo as scum and pointed to evidence from the day about bo’s reactions (page 40). Meanwhile bo continually pushes for Jeff through Day 2: “Wouldn't mind if someone else looked at Jeff to see if you see what I saw before.” (page 41). Bo says this about Lucland: “My read: very slight scum. I get a bad vibe about Lucland, but I also feel like I have to take everything he does with a grain of salt. He's new and clearly doesn't have a solid grasp of what's going on. That said, he needs to be watched. If he slips, someone needs to pick it up and point it out and keep the pressure on him.” (page 41). Lucland responds on page 41 with “I don't see further evidence that is swaying me to change my vote. Guak's motivation, as I've pointed out is solid. pg. 38. I feel strongly that Epsi is mafia too, but I'm unsure about ND and Bo. This is where my focus is.” Notices Lucland always has to throw my name in when he mentions bo. Strange.

I encourage everyone to re-read Captainmeme’s reply to bo from Page 42 about why bo is scum. It is too long for me to post it here. Another smart veteran comments on Page 42 about Lucland stating: “Okay, so this isn't going to be an entire case, because Lucland didn't really do much of anything, but the thing that strikes me about Lucland is how oppressively useless he is. He also doesn't even bother reading the thread. If he's public enough about it, it makes an okay excuse not to know stuff, or to repeat stuff that has been stated and debunked.” (Phil, 42)

Clearly at the time Captainmeme and Phil were both onto bo/lucland (separately). Who were mafia kills for Nights 2 and 4?

Jeff comes on quick after Phil votes Lucland and starts to turn the conversation back to TrPrado/Bo about Jeff being scum. He responds and attempts to rebute Bo and TrPrado here (42). Then in an attempt to completely steer the conversation and run interference on Phil, Jeff posts “ND, Friend or Foe” a ridiculous analysis of me full of one line statements.

Bo makes this comment on Page 42: “People I would be willing to vote for are Yoyo and Jeff. Lucland is a mile behind them, but if nobody is going to get behind either Yoyo or Jeff, I guess I could settle there, but I am still on the fence about him and need more from him before I'm comfortable with that.”

Confirming that he would be willing to vote for yoyo (cop), Jeff (scum) and Lucland is a mile behind them but I wager is also (scum). In the lead up to EOD we start to see some traction for Lucland. Bo starts to ask people to consolidate and find a common ground. Lucland plays it stubborn and refuses to move his vote off Guak citing more anti-town play behavior. We have seen many examples of this from him already in the game. Check it out on page 43.

Lucland says this about bo: “Bo - this is my third choice for mafia, you think being active is indicative of town, I say not necessarily. He's active, but his participation in the balki bandwagon is suspect. His response hasn't satisfied me and his interactions aren't REALLY particularly helpful. He thinks everyone is mafia, too. Just like the rest of us.” (Page 43, Lucland)

Now remember earlier he was not saying this and saying I was tied with bo. But now bo is the third choice. What’s important is that before bo became the third choice bo was calling lucland out and saying that he thought lucland was mafia and that lucland was his (Bo’s) third choice to be mafia. Lucland tells me on the same page that: “I agree with his stats on the Balki case” but more recently on the current page he asks if these stats are really legit? (current or near current page). Through this analysis we can see how lucland fluctuates his vote depending on who reads him which way AND how he flip flops on certain issues with the passage of time.

Now at the EOD, bo comes out by voting yoyo. Now remember earlier in the day he wanted Jeff. Then it was yoyo and perhaps Lucland if it came to it. Bo is trying to start wagons and seeing what sticks not trying to build a case and scumhunt. A mafia man wants to start a wagon and get an inno townie lynched not build a legitimate case and prove the case.

As the day nears its end Lucland starts to use all capital letters in his response on Page 45. Clearly showcasing a display of anger and contempt for experienced players. Bo literally posts his yoyo case at EOD on D2 hoping to guide and inform the vote on yoyo. Why is it bad town play to post a massive case at EOD? Because it doesn’t allow enough time to discuss the case! This is an anti-town move just like lucland’s anti-town attitudes and beliefs. Also bo’s case comes out after his vote. Seeing some traction on Lucland, bo attempts to stop the tide by doing an EOD read on yoyo/trying to start a new wagon/and then defending lucland on the stand.

“@all ... I don't get a huge scum vibe from Lucland. I get a whole lot of the stupid and a whole lot of the lurking-and-not-gonna-change vibe, but that on its own doesn't make someone scum. I just don't see the case and I don't like that the wagon is growing seemingly unopposed.” (bo, 45) Just moments ago though bo listed lucland as a third possibility but at crunchtime he drops the idea and wagon totally in favor of a no lynch.

This is defensive play on the part of bo and a defense of Lucland in the attempt to save his mafia partner. To further run interference and to attempt to build up another wagon to save Lucland, Jeff posts right after bo with a vote on Espi and some justification (45). Both bo and Jeff were on at EOD to try and save Lucland. Now on 46, bo unvotes yoyo and asks for a case on Guak again further confusing and distracting the EOD voting procedures and not allowing two wagons to organically form. This is a scum driven attempt to confuse the town and get a mislynch but also to protect and attempt to save Lucland. After bo asks for the case on Guak, Jeff just votes Guak (46), Lucland directly after Jeff re-confirms his vote on Guak (46).

Here is a very interesting exchange from EOD D2

“jeff!!! what??? you're the reason I'm switching!” (Lucland, 46) following Jeff’s vote.

“Lucland, what in the fuck is that?” (Bo, 46) following Lucland’s re-confirmation of his vote on Guak.

After yoyo votes Guak, bo calls for a no lynch and votes for it. Who follows bo? SS does (perhaps something that should be re-visited).

Now bo is shouting in all CAPS: “GUYS, VOTE NO LYNCH. WE DON'T HAVE ANYTHING HERE.” (bo, 46)

This is just moments before the lynch. He is really driving a no lynch movement which would obviously deprive town of a chance to kill scum (lucland) who is one of the vote leaders at this time. Bo is going all out to protect lucland. To break a tie I voted Guak. When bo votes Lucland what does Lucland say?

“bo aRe you kidding. suspicious.” (Kind of weird wording right?)

When Phil votes Lucland what does Lucland say?

“phil. I am watching you now, sir.”

Who gets killed N2? Phil.

Guak is thus lynched on Page 49.

“guak (5): Lucland, Yoyoyozo, TrPrado, Jeff, ND”

We now know Jeff to be a mafia vote, yoyo to be cop, TrPrado is unknown, as am I, and I heavily suspect Lucland to be scum which would mean this wagon was scum driven to kill Guak and protect Lucland. Don’t worry Lucland is sorry for this though: “I just don't know what to even say. I'm sorry.” (Lucland, 49).

Bo then says this on Page 50:

“We're probably going to have to wait until the cop dies to get any information from him. There are going to be counterclaims, maybe from town and maybe from mafia too if they've got the guts to try it.”

Well obviously this has been setup by bo and planned by bo as we can see from earlier in D2 with the fake breadcrumbing that was done. Here he is starting to stage the event and if it occurs he could point back to this and appear as a seer to the besieged town. We have Phil’s reads on Page 53. The ones Captainmeme argued proved I was town.

Here is an interesting tidbit from the reads:

“In summary, Lucland and Espi are totally scum, Yoyo very well could be scum, I need to reread bo and Jeff, and captainmeme needs to show up.” (Phil, 53)

We now know that Espi is town, Jeff was scum, Meme was town. Which means from this he correctly identified Jeff as someone who needed a re-read. Lucland was his top choice which may have freaked Lucland (other mafia out), and bo was on there as well. Yoyo was proven cop. So out of his remaining re-reads/scum Lucland, Jeff, Bo remain.

Bo comments on this post by stating: “That's a forced post right there if I've ever seen one. Gotta rethink my reads all of a sudden.”

Remember meme’s whole argument revolved around the mafia seeing that post as focused, clear, and with identifiable town/scum reads. Hence the reason for his targeting. Jeff says the following in his reads about Lucland/Bo.

“Lucland: NEUTRAL (newbie crazy)”

And

“bo_sox48: NEUTRAL (even though he's tunneling on me)”

Interesting both are neutral. There is a fair amount of switches with Jeff concerning the two of them. Bo reads Lucland as a null and Jeff as scum on Page 54. Thus EON ends on page 54.

Conclusion:

So what have we learned from Part 2? Well we have some excellent posts from Phil, Guak, and Captainmeme all confirmed town concerning Lucland and Bo. We now know that those three did see bo/lucland (depending on which one) as scum at various points in day 2.

We now know for a fact that Jeff attempt to start or join a competing wagon to Lucland in the close of D2. I wager that it was to protect Lucland and I think the analysis proves that. Bo also attempted to start a new wagon yoyo and a no lynch vote. Was this to protect Lucland? Most likely. If you apply my analysis to D2 you see a scumteam on the brink attempting to save Lucland and preserve their chances for victory.

All it would take is one more day to get the town to a MYOL scenario. If the mafia could retain three members.

Bo was preparing for either a possible bus on Jeff which he set up for since N1 and also prepped the way for a soft cop claim/breadcrumbing which could be applied in a MYOL scenario. I pointed out several instances of this effort. As Captainmeme argued and I have argued a VT claiming cop would be absolutely damning to the town. Someone with bo’s experience would not do it. I doubt even Maniac would do it as a VT. Which raises the obviously answerable question: why did bo do it? Well because he was mafia and was preparing for MYOL.

Lucland was heavily attacked and survived due to his protection. The question remains is did Lucland modulate his play style from anti-town to pro-town during D3? Well we will see in the final part, part 3, which will be posted well before EOD D5.

Look at ND, finally coming out of the woodwork. Your first suspect is dead even though you tunneled him endlessly, your second one is now basically confirmed town, so you're moving on. You never gave Jeff a thought even though you told me you would - twice, actually - probably because you saw no reason to get your partner lynched when nobody else was exactly jumping at the opportunity either. You're bussing now, too. You say it's Lucland and I when I already made the case that it's Lucland and you - but of course, if you get me first, you win, and Lucland never has to die.

I am too busy for this game. I have to pack to move back to school tomorrow. It's something I totally forgot I had to do and I'm kind of pissed that I didn't do that before Boston. Either way, I'm not going to be around much today or tomorrow. If you lynch me and we lose, be mindful that I said it's no surprise that the mafia got rid of meme and now come after me only when they know I've been busy and can't spend the time I need to defend myself. They haven't done so all game - has nobody noticed that?

Either way, I don't have time (or the energy) for this game right now. I was only a half hour from missing one of my Diplomacy deadlines earlier. If the town ends up buying ND's case, at the very least force him to lynch his partner before he gets me mislynched, and then you can dig for yourselves and figure the rest out tomorrow.

@Bo: Funny bo I've been around more than you this phase and done a lot of work on part 1 and part 2. The game needed a re-look. Are you scared now that I figured you out?

Deflection I see. Why don't you vote for me too like your partner Lucland?

It seems pretty scummy for ND to attack someone who says he's boarding a plane -- someone who essentially doesn't have a hope of defending himself. Makes for an easy lynch, doesn't it?

Or maybe that's just what bo wants us to think.

So bo is not going to be around much today or tomorrow? I understand that he has a life outside of Mafia, but this is the most critical part of the game, and any mistake we make will be our last. For a member of town not to be present to make an informed vote at this point guarantees that the Mafia will be able to tie or outvote the town -- it guarantees that we lose. But if a mafia member leaves at this point, both the vote and the nightkill go off without a hitch.

bo doesn't seem to be looking for anyone to sub for him, almost as if he's sure that his side will win almost without him here.

##VOTE bo

Look SS I don't think it's scummy at all. I started a new part-time job today. Had readings for two night classes for grad school. Let alone am still dealing with a personal life event from last week. Have a grad school class in a few hours and I still put the time in. He basically said he didn't have time for it so bah whatever. I don't necessarily have the time for this either, but unlike bo I care about the town, this game, and will put the time in no matter what.

Why would I need a sub? A sub would just have to read the *whole thread* and defend a position he didn't even play. That's flat out stupid.

ND, I'm not fighting you over who cares more. It's mafia on webDiplomacy. It kinda takes a back seat when I have other things to do. It doesn't have to for you; that's your choice. Mine is to check in every so often, see how things develop, and make an informed decision around the deadline, but I am not going to spend hours preparing a gargantuan defense against your case that took me nearly 45 minutes to even read let alone think about.

I am simply making a perfectly logical point that doesn't need to have any bearing on my case - ND and I both think Lucland is scum and partnered with the other. I think it's safe to say that one of us two is actually Lucland's partner, so why not lynch Lucland, buy ourselves more time to think about it and similarly give me time to get my room sorted, fill out the paperwork I have before classes start, and hopefully find time on Wednesday to put up an actual defense so that the town is making an informed decision rather than one based on me not being here.

Also getting at the following:
Lucland's play all game has been based on OMGUS.
bo is bussing Lucland.
Lucland is protecting and praising bo to no end.
Eh?
Either way, I said bo replaced meme's spot on the scum team once I saw captain flip town, so ##VOTE bo. Of this much, I am surely convinced, and the connections to Lucland are astounding and lean to him being a scum buddy for bo.

Part 3 will be worked on tonight and in the morning. Right now I am locked in for bo. Bo, why don't you petition the GM for an extension. I am not asking for you. If they feel that your life changes need a pause for the continuation of the game so you can respond then I will accept that.

Voting for someone who isn't here just feels a bit wrong. Especially as it kills off the discussion as there's no defense. But the reasoning is sound.

Lucland, where do you stand on lynching bo?

D3-5 Suspect Analysis Part 3

This part is intended to take us to our current page. We will look at Jeff-Bo-Lucland from Page 54-83.

For all the dead townies out there still watching I am bringing it home. Town will win this. Bo and Lucland will pay for their atrocities. The scum’s game is done and now they have to answer to the town.

SO EON D2 ends with Phil’s death which I sum up in Part 2. We have covered the reasons for his death. Now we will see the immediate aftermath and the scum’s final push D3 and the confusion that ensues when we have TrPrado (who I now heavily suspect is TOWN) against yoyo (COP). We will see the mafia team and their efforts to confuse and distract the town, but a team that makes mistakes.

Bo starts off on Page 54 suggesting that the cop should try softing before revealing and that if someone can pull off “a role swap with you, we’ll be far better off.” I assume this line will be used by bo in any rebuttal of my case. So I am going to pre-emptively dismiss it. First, bo has been softing all game, leaving breadcrumbs, and preparing for the moment of the cop’s actual reveal. Now we will never know what would have happened if yoyo had made it late game and bo revealed as well. This line was most likely placed in the event that the cop was killed early. Bo could later point to it and say (my quote) “Hey guys, you know I was softing right so I could take the heat off cop, it was the VT thing to do.” This is a bullshit line of defense. First as we have discussed (not just by me, but my meme as well as we will see later) that a VT claiming cop is damning, absolutely damning, because it likely places the VT against the actual cop in a mislynch scenario. Bo had to begin preparing; he knew that if the mafia hit their mark and killed the cop at night then eventuality he would have to defend against his game statements in which he was softing and false breadcrumbing to prepare to discredit the cop. This statement sets the stage for a future defense. It is game spanning and incredible important for him to do this. He had to have insulation because by this point he must have been reasonable sure about Phil, but also yoyo must have been suspected by them.

So why Phil and not yoyo? Well D2 Bo tested the waters on a yoyo wagon and found some support. He knew that Phil would have been the tougher wagon to start. Phil’s case at night was also structured like a cop’s case and yoyo (cop’s reads) didn’t come in until just moments before EON D2 on Page 54. When yoyo posted his reads on 54 (his first reads all game and definitive cop reads at that) Bo knew who yoyo was. He most likely already suspected due to yoyo’s defense of Espi. Seeing Espi as yoyo’s top townread and a total TOWN rating must have tipped him off. While this was something I read as scummy simply due to the lack of explanation, but I don’t have the informed minority knowledge that bo/jeff/lucland have. Why waste a night kill on yoyo when the scumteam led by bo could gather enough support to lynch yoyo?

Who does the cop actually suspect D3? Bo. Yoyo suspect bo until his dying breath.

“Oh and btw ##VOTE Bo
I noticed that Deathllama was killed, it was most likely becuase he was a townie ringleader. I found it a little fishy that you talk just as much as him if not more. But seriously? Phil? Really? Phillip? Philmeister? The Phillinator? No you were the main talker by far, with Tr and Phil coming in second. I'm going to take a look at Bo and I urge everyone to join me.” (Yoyo, 54)

What is bo’s defense to this statement? Bo has to turn D3 into a referendum on yoyo + another VT. He can’t allow the lynch choices to become him or any of his mafia partners. Remember if they correctly lynch and if the cop has not scanned a mafia then they can get to MYOL D4 with a full, three member, scumteam. “Now you come on and OMGUS me because you're scared shitless.##VOTE Yoyo” (bo, 55) Now the reason why bo must have been comfortable doing this and starting his line about ‘role swapping’ is as stated before to prepare against a future line of attack but also because he must have felt reasonably comfortable that yoyo had not scanned a mafia member. Look at yoyo’s reads at EON D2.

Espi: town
TrPrado: slight town
phil_a_s: slight scum
ND: slight scum
bo_sox48: null
Jeff Kuta: null
captainmeme:
SaladinSmith: Slight town
Lucland: slight scum
(yoyo, 54)

Bo knew that if he was right in his suspicion then yoyo had not actually scanned a mafia member. His reads from 54 are one lines. No explanation is needed because we know that yoyo confirmed on town and as of yet had not confirmed anyone else. Now we know that the reads are focused and yoyo had read (scanned) Espi as town. That was the only information that town would get from a yoyo cop lynch. Notice Jeff is not on here as a scan or confirmed scum. That must be because Jeff was yoyo’s N2 scan. He would not have gotten the results until the phase change thus it was new information for D3 not listed in the EON2 reads.

Bo had a chance here to kill the cop. He was going to take it and lead the wagon against yoyo. Yoyo senses the attack on him by bo early on D3 and states: “Lol no need to be so reactionary bo. Did I strike a nerve? You sound a little nervous. Anyway, your entire point against me is completely made up. When did I say guak was scum for softclearing DL? That doesn't even make sense. But right now you'll say whatever to redirect attention toward me. Lies.” (yoyo, 55) Yoyo even recommends bo to switch and lead the wagon on Jeff (something that bo doesn’t do, 55).

Bo continues to pressure Yoyo through Page 55. Jeff posted this on Page 57 and I always found it to be interesting:

“What an OMGUS-terfuck.
(COP) Yoyo vs bo_sox48
ND vs Espi (TOWN)
Does that mean TrPrado, SaladinSmith and myself are the only sane ones here??”

Now there are quite a few people omitted from this list at this point namely Captainmeme (TOWN), Lucland.. I am inclined to dismiss it as WIFOM, but it is a statement where Jeff is poking fun at the town. I know I am town so one of his (versus) is me and Espi both town. Most likely nothing, but I would like to get some thoughts from others about this quote.

Lucland thus enters the fray on 58, hours after the phase switch, yet still using the same fake, faux, outrage as he always does: “Wow, NOT phil! What an awful way to die. RIP, man.” (Lucland, 58)

“I still feel like you older guys have this code of conduct that you use as a shield to throw schtuff at people that is indefensible.” More anti-town play is this a surprise to anyone at this point? He goes on to say that if you read this post as mafia then “frack you” (Lucland, 58)

Yoyo accuses Jeff of having Scum buddies and Jeff gets very defensive on page 58. Clearly the mafia team’s façade is starting to crumble. Captainmeme writes on Page 58 arguing that I am town and votes lucland with some back up: “Given Phil's heavy attack in his reads on certain players, a guilty scan on at least one of Espi/Lucland is almost certain, and given his ordering of putting Lucland top, and clearly calling Lucland scum” (Captainmeme, 58). Now this is important because we now know Espi to be town meaning that the person most at threat from Phil’s reads was Lucland.

After this vote Lucland responds by saying he has reread the rules and will “Work towards conformity” (Page 58). So here we have a player who has played anti-town all game then finally decides to work towards conformity. While he started the day with anti-town behavior he did try to integrate into town and this integration is key because it shows an attempt to change playstyle. Furthermore, like always Lucland criticizes (deflects/discredits common mafia behavior) meme who just voted for Lucland with this: “Meme, is this going to be like the last time where you showed up for a couple of days dropped a vote like a turd, and then disappeared? Really, come again. We don't have the luxury of jackin around.” (Lucland, 58) Jeff then becomes involved with the yoyo vote exclaiming that it is time to start a new wagon like bo did D2 (Jeff, 58).

So for much of the beginning of D3 we have Lucland working to fight/discredit Captainmeme (town) and Bo/Jeff (SCUM) working to discredit yoyo. Lucland works to discredit Espi here (but at the time Espi did seem the most scummy of everyone) still a bit of fuel to the fire without actually voting for Espi (Page 60). A little bit of praise from Jeff towards Lucland to Lucland’s vote on yoyo on Page 60. Lucland then switches to yoyo in an attempt to throw some fire on the yoyo wagon (Page 60).

I post my case on Espi, TrPrado, Yoyo on Page 61 which is now widely discredited and wrong which prompted me to re-look the game. Jeff comments on the case requesting I look at yoyo and vote for him basically (62). Bo continues to push yoyo (62). Jeff then comments in a tagged post to bo stating: “I would be OK with an Espi v ND showdown for the D3 lynch. There seems to be a fault line running through the town, and those two are most clearly at each other's throats” Here we see another example from Jeff of something he could see going down ND vs. Espi. This is another option the scumteam may have to play with. It’s important to leave this open incase yoyo does not take off. Both of us are VT and the mafia want to get to MYOL with a perfect team to do that they can’t lose a member and if the cop survives, so what? Bo has already prepped the way for his fake reveal which will further confuse and distract the town in a MYOL scenario where bo (a player who has worked hard to be a voice of the town/scum) would be pitted against a scummy yoyo (cop). Do you really think the odds lean in yoyo’s favor if this situation became fact? No, bo and the scums would have it in the bag.

Bo says this about yoyo (cop): “Also, since Yoyo hasn't actually read the thread, why don't you point him toward other questions you want answered?” (bo, 62)

Yoyo responds: “Lol wow great job trying to discredit everything I say with lies!” (yoyo, 62) Jeff continues to push for a wagon on me: “I also have made my case against ND and started off D3 voting for him. It is interesting that both Espi and TrPrado sheeped after me on the ND wagon. That's also partly why I left it--to see whether the possible scum sheep were willful enough to stay on it. So far they are.” (Jeff, 63).

Yoyo-ND trade back and forth about the ND case on Yoyo. A case that I later drop. Lucland continues to push an Espi, yoyo, SS scumteam (65). Jeff then votes Espi on 66.

Bo then says this on 66: “They don't know who the cop is, but that doesn't mean they didn't guess during the night and that doesn't mean they won't guess again tonight. The cop is their main obstacle left, and the more nights the cop survives, the more likely one of his reports is going to implicate them. That's why it only makes sense that they are going for who they think the cop is.”

Very clearly stated and we now know it to be the truth. They were wrong on phil, but the amount of pressure and wagon attempts on yoyo D3 makes me think they must have heavily suspected him D3 or at least one of them did (bo). With yoyo dead their main obstacle gone they could take the town and win the game. Lucland follows this with another analysis post on 66 which is different from his previous posts another example of him changing his playstyle. Bo reiterates his point about the cop being the obstacle to the mafia on 67. Then we have a flaming gun, smoking gun, quote from bo on 67 which I have cited before but I will do it again here.

“I'm about to throw my computer out a second story window if you keep wasting my time. We have two hours and we're nowhere. The fact that I am defending you through all of this since the beginning of day 2 should tell you something really important, but you aren't seeing it” (bo, 67)

I don’t know how you read this any other way then bo basically spelling it out for Espi. Bo SAYS I am defending you. It’s important, but you are not seeing it. Why would he say that? To get Espi (and others) to believe he is cop and Espi is innocent. First, how does bo know for sure Espi is innocent if HE ISN’T THE COP and HAS NOT SCANND HIM? He can’t and thus has to be mafia. However at the time I thought this was a real near-claim. I caught it and dropped my Espi vote a page later. Lucland follows this near-reveal with his point: “Again, I can vote Espi or Yoyo.” Followed by “I haven't bandwagoned before but that's how I'd like to use my vote today.” (Lucland, 67). Basically saying he will vote with whoever is leading the bandwagon; a true scummy move if I have ever seen one.

Here is a post from yoyo which talks about what I talked about at length yesterday relating to bo. Think about this and think about part 2 of this case for a bit:

“Bo, two hours before the deadline you say,
"I'm not sold on the Lucland case but there's no doubt that he's fucking useless. He seems to have no idea how to play, though, and I feel like that could explain the fact that his defenses are flimsy. He has scumslipped, though. I don't know. I reread him yesterday and I saw both dumb townie and dumb mafia there." (yoyo)

You acknowledge the possibility of lucland being scum. It isn’t until about an hour before the deadline that you say you have no clue if either wagon is scum. 40 minutes before the deadline, you tell Lucland to defend himself. Then you start panicking like 20 minutes before the deadline.” (yoyo, 68)

Lucland says he doesn’t care what Espi or yoyo say, but yoyo responds and calls this stating: “Jesus Christ, Lucland really? You don't care what Espi and I think?” (yoyo, 68). A huge slip here from a giddy scum.

We have yoyo trying to clue people on to bo with his statements from the previous day and this cycle (D3) while also calling out Lucland. Yoyo should seriously get MVP he did a good job here and I wish other people would have realized it sooner. Lucland responds to yoyo saying the point taken and consider it corrected. Lucland’s giddy scumslip was called by yoyo and Lucland quickly moved to correct it. Bo asks me then on Page 68: “@ND ... do you have any interest in getting Jeff or Lucland?” Is it really possible he gave away the entire scumteam to save himself and set himself up as a voice of the town with the intent of use his credibility when he claimed cop? I think so. See the closing arguments below after the recap.

EOD officially begins on 69. I have switched to TrPrado with my case on Espi (discredited because I believed him to be town and bo to be cop), my case on yoyo (discredited because I felt confident in his defense of my case), and my only remaining read to be TrPrado. Bo begins by voting Lucland, someone I now heavily suspect to be mafia who has worked to modulate his play D3 (which implies coaching on someone’s part either Jeff or Bo). Yoyo then votes TrPrado.

Jeff says this about bo: “@bo: WTF? You are starting a fifth wagon this late in the phase? Jeez lou freakin' weeze.” (Jeff, 70)

Jeff as a mafia man is attempting to play like a town and anyone starting multiple wagons at EOD would be bad because it confuses the town and remember bo wanted a no lynch the previous day and for the town to consolidate their votes. Plus with Lucland being scum Jeff probably didn’t want Bo to bus Lucland at EOD when they had a good shot at wiping the town this game with a perfect scum win. Bo responds by saying: “@Jeff ... I'm not starting a fifth wagon. There is clearly not much interest in ND or myself at this point. I'm seeing if there is any interest in Lucland.” (bo, 70). Bo’s play this day (this game) has been to start multiple wagons or join multiple wagons EOD to confuse and distract town. It’s a scum driven effort to confuse the town and force town mislynches. He then posts a case on Lucland. Lucland then calls for cases during EOD voting madness stating: “This would be a very dangerous mafia person. I know there was some cases on him earlier, but really? Who is this guy? And slacker before him. If this guy is mafia, we are in major trouble. Cases please. Anyone else concerned?” He repeats his calls to kill meme, and asks for cases at EOD. Why do you not post cases EOD? Because people don’t have time to read them. Anyone posting a case at EOD is trying to confuse the town. We just saw bo confuse the town with his case on Lucland, Lucland call for a case on meme, Jeff call out bo for starting a wagon on Lucland. The mafia team is all doing different things here they are not coordinating, but striking every which way to muddle the town into a mislynch. This uncoordinated play is important because it shows that they were all doing different things either to confuse the town and get a mislynch or perhaps they weren’t unified on who to lynch yet.

Bo then says this to Lucland, “Lucland, who coached you in the mafia thread?” (Bo, 71). Fairly funny since we now know it to be Bo and Jeff. Bo says, “Is anyone interested in going for Lucland or am I dropping him too?” (Bo, 71) So Bo is looking for a wagon to stick something we have seen him do before and something we have discussed before.

Lucland responds with this at the coaching charges: “** um, no sir. coaching? What does that even mean? non evidence masquerading as evidence. You think you're so hot, but you are rude shit stirrer. STILL haven't seen a worthy contribution from you since D1:” (Lucland, 71)

Wait I thought he read President Eden’s stuff and the thread hasn’t coaching been explained and isn’t it common sense? Is this guy living in the same dimension as us? With no one on Lucland, bo jumps ship to TrPrado.

Like a hot potato he jumps from person to person seeing who will stick and who he can lynch. Bo reiterates on 72 that he will go for a yoyo wagon (last post he moved to TrPrado) then Lucland votes yoyo. Bo votes Yoyo, SS votes Yoyo, TrPrado votes yoyo. A wagon has now formed and it has strength it is pulling out the station! Jeff Kuta jumps on board adding an element of scum to Lucland’s scum driven wagon. All the scum are now on this wagon. I call out that “there isn’t much opposition to a yoyo lynch” which scares the shit out of me. I start to argue to save yoyo at this point. Jeff returns his vote to TrPrado (73). I call for all town to switch their votes back to TrPrado.

Lucland says this: “I am not voting prado. I'm not doing it. I can't believe this.” Clearly he wants yoyo dead or meme or espi or SS or anyone else he hedged on.

Bo then revotes TrPrado after jeff revoted TrPrado. The scum now control the controlling votes with the town locked in. They can swing it anyway they want. SS then votes Espi. As soon as this happens Bo switches back to yoyo and Captain makes sure it doesn’t tie by voting Yoyo. Jeff then swings back to Yoyo. D3 ends with this.

Analysis: The scum controlled the controlling votes this phase. With the town locked in the scum bo/Jeff could swing it to TrPrado or Yoyo. They swung it to Yoyo not to protect TrPrado, but to make sure the cop was killed. They were looking for the cop and after Yoyo’s 54 reads and the arguments from D3 bo must have been fairly sure. The scum were successful in getting the cop lynched. Plus, yoyo didn’t give any confirmed reads with a labeled confirmed scum UNTIL he crossposted at 6:00 with Valis with Jeff as a labeled scum. That must have knocked the wind out of those bastards.

Who are the two people that comment on this?

Bo says “…..” well after 6:00 and Jeff says: “no way”

The scum reacted, no one else did. Plus yoyo’s dying breath was a condemnation of bo and told us that he heavily suspects bo. It is bo folks.

N3-D5

The game has slowed to a crawl between N3-D5. I could probably do another mini-post on this if you guys want me to do so. But the major developments was the death of Jeff, Espi, and Captainmeme. There has been very little discussion during this period of the game. But, again if you guys want me to re-look it I can.

Furthermore bo has taken a low profile, Jeff said nothing of worth, Lucland’s writing has been widely destroyed by me already if you re-read the thread.

CONCLUDING ARGUMENTS

Bo has played a strong game as mafia. He has attempted to become the de facto leader of the town. During EOD phases we regularly see him jump ship and attempt to start wagons, we see him post cases during EOD to inform vote, and we know that he has not been afraid to bus his team mates at times willing to bus either to secure his position at the head of the town. Let’s be clear about two things: 1) posting cases EOD is confusing to the town because town does not have time to read them. It’s anti-town play. 2) Starting multiple competing bandwagons at EOD does not help to consolidate town vote and prevents town driven wagons.

Bo has also prepped and prepared a long game for a cop reveal. We see evidence of it throughout the game thread with instances appearing in D2 and D3. He was preparing the way, but also possibly setting up defenses in case the cop was killed before it got to MYOL with a cop alive vs a mafia fake claiming. This has been well documented and we know for a fact that a VT fake claiming does not serve the town’s best interests. As Captainmeme argued it would only confuse the town and possibly cause a cop mislynch.

Bo has placed an impressive game one that has almost led the town to the brink of destruction. He has been successful in confusing the town, causing a cop mislynch, and killing some of the most veteran players in the game. Finally we know from my Balki wagon statistical analysis that it is extremely likely that one mafia was on the vote. It has been calculated at 89%. From my perspective there is an 89% chance this guy is mafia. Also let’s not forget that yoyo (cop) heavily suspected bo in the closing moments of EOD D3 and advised us to look into him. Well yoyo I have and this is what I have found.

Lucland has not played a very good game. His D1 behavior tipped a lot of people off. I knew he was playing anti-town, not putting much time into reading and analyzing the game then. I have widely chronicled his work throughout the game and it’s full of OMGUSing, anti-town behavior, and attacks on players who have played the game. I found some evidence of possible coaching and play modulation D3 but this is the only real instance I have found. He has not taken the lead this game, he has played anti-town, he is anti-town. Lucland is the final member of this team.

Conclusion: Lynch bo and Lucland and we win the game.

to confirm ##VOTE BO

Can we also check post numbers real quick? If someone of the scum doesn't post enough then lynching them is a waste because they get modkilled anyway.

I'm fairly sure I have met the posting requirements. I don't think bo has posted enough or voted though but I haven't double checked?

##CALL GM: Has anyone not met the game requirements (voting/or post threshold) and will they be modkilled?

Official Count Day 5, count 1.0:
bo_sox48 (3): ND, SaladinSmith, TrPrado
ND (1): Lucland

Not voted (1): bo_sox48

Currently BO_SOX48 is set to be arrested. There are 2 hours and 12 minutes left in the day.

##CALL EVERYONE
you make me have to figure out whether I'm modkilling people for inactivity and I will be very not happy. Participate.

@ND I'm looking into that now.

@Valis: Thanks

SaladinSmith and Bo_sox48 have only posted three times each.

##CALL GM: And they will be mod killed if they don't get to 5? Or are you still considering that?

Unless I've announced the rules have changed, and they have not, and they will be modkilled. Sorry if I sounded wishy washy.

Also my unhappiness is directed at people not participating, not at people pointing out that people aren't participating, to be crystal clear.

understood

@All: Come on for EOD we need to discuss this and how we want to proceed. We may have a chance to win it today.

@TrPrado and @SS: Where are you???!?!