@rdrivera:

D5: I voted for ghug because he was my top scum read, and I left my vote on him all day because he again stayed a lead wagon through EOD, obviously, as he was lynched.

N5: My reads changed between N4 and N5 as a result of guak getting NKed and ghug flipping town. N4 I said Oztra was likely town because he had not done anything suspicious, and I had other suspects. With my top scum reads both revealed as town, I was pointing out the Oztra's lurking could be his way of getting by as scum. Oztra should not be underestimated, he almost won M30 as scum by avoiding suspicion.

@rdrivera: I did not have a good read on snowy, my point at the time was that I scum read ghug, town read Maniac, and was neutral on snowy.

I will provide more information about why I suspect Maniac later, but for now, I believe town is driving my lynch today, so I think the scum are staying off of my wagon. My guess for the scum team is now Maniac/ND, or possibly Maniac/Oztra.

##VOTE Maniac

This interaction between bozo and RD is very interesting.

It seems that bozo is trying to seem townie by saying that the guy who scum reads him is town, but maybe he genuinely thinks this, or knows it because he's scum.

RD's case is interesting, but bozo seems to have an answer for everything, do you have any rebuttals to his rebuttals?

@Uber - I have done my considerations, in this kind of setup it's really hard to be sure, you have to trust your instincts. I am still waiting for his case on Maniac.
Bozo rebuttals could be honest or he could be making up. His vote pattern is really like yours (I believe you two tunelled Ghug all days except the day we lynched Ezio). But I don't believe you two can be scum together, so at least one town have a reason to vote this way. What do you think?

I voted ghug because he acted scummy, I was lurking d1 and d2 because I was on vacation and couldn't log on all that much.

I don't know why bozo voted so similar to me.

I find rdrivera's case on Bozo rather convincing. And examining Bozo's posting stats, I see that he has been lazy/lurking all game. And the only tiny good part in his voting is that he took part in the lynching of Ezio by switching ghug > Ezio with 6 mins left on D3 as if he wanted some cred when Ezio practically was dead anyhow. So ##vote bozo for now.

being lazy and lurking doesn't mean much.

《《 Official Vote Count 6.1 》》
bozotheclown (4) ubercacher16, rdrivera2005, CommanderByron, peterlund
Maniac (2) RagingIke297, bozotheclown
ND (1) Oztra
CommanderByron (1) ND
rdrivera2005 (1) Maniac

Around 25 hours remain in the day

《《 Bozotheclown is scheduled to be eaten 》》

**Oztra and Peterlund have not met posting requirements**

Brain if you would be counting words instead of postings you would have found that all of Ike, ND and Oz has much fewer words than I had after my single post.

Snapshot after my first post:
1 69 358 69.00 peterlund 00:51
2 58 312 29.00 RagingIke297
3 15 87 5.00 ND
1 3 17 3.00 Oztra

##GM NOTE thats fine. You are now in adherence. Congrats!

good I was worried I wasn't meeting the requirements.

what how

##call gm can i get a sub for next week
matters mean that i cannot get a hold of technology for the week

Hi! I just want this thread to be at the top to annoy all of those non-players who haven't muted it.

I am here not lurking. I got called into work at 11am and just now am getting off at 11:30pm hopefully I can get to bed without having to give you all my reads?

Bozo is scum, I have my arguments and will post hopefully tomorrow if not I’m sorry and if that means you’ve gotta lynch me... go for it.

ND is annoying but hopefully not scums

I’m not sure who else is scum. I’m comfortable in assuming ragingike is town. But that’s it. Jamie was my other townie I trusted.

@ragingike I really don’t think Maniac is a sure shot scum. But if by the time I go to work tomorrow you haven’t changed I’ll sheep you as I feel like you are atleast voting town motivated.

@CB I feel like we have a very good chance of hitting scum if we lynch between Bozo, Maniac and ND today. Bozo is my lowest conviction pick out of those three, because he did answer RD's case against him quite well. The case on Maniac is the same as it has always been for me, he's been manipulative and caused chaos on several occasions. ND's scum read is based on his hammer vote, with this set up there should never be an end vote cast seriously, doesn't help that ghug flipped town and ND was wrong.

So I really feel like I can’t weigh in on ND without it seeming utterly defensive.

So I am okay with bozo or maniac vote

D1, Maniac voted for Ezio and got Chaqa to vote for Ezio, but ended the day on Chaqa. He might have been bussing Ezio. D3, with the vote tied Ezio 4 Maniac 4, Maniac put a third vote on CB 35 minutes before the deadline. If he was really trying to get Ezio lynched, he could have voted for Ezio to put him up 5-4. It looks like Maniac was trying to save both Ezio and himself by making CB a viable wagon. In the last minute before the deadline, Maniac voted for himself to make it Ezio 6 Maniac 5 before switching to Ezio as the day was ending. It looks like he was trying to get someone to tie the vote at the last minute. Although it appears he was trying to avoid an Ezio lynch, Maniac is now taking credit for lynching Ezio. D4, Maniac voted for snowy on and off and ended the day on snowy, but he switched his vote around at the deadline, and it looks like he could have been trying to get ghug lynched instead of snowy, or force a tie. He also had an interaction with Oztra where Oztra agreed to vote for ghug the next day if Maniac voted for snowy, which Maniac did, but only for thirty minutes before switching his vote again. This was despite the fact that snowy was Maniac's top scum read N4, and therefore should have already been voting for snowy. He later said he had a strong town read of Oztra for this agreement, saying he would have to be heavily bussing snowy. This makes me think that Oztra could be scum with Maniac, and that they were both bussing snowy D4. Since snowy never posted D4 without explanation, it is possible that the explanation was given in the Mafia QT. D5, after previously scum reading ghug, Maniac avoided voting for ghug until it looked very likely ghug would be lynched, then voted for ghug while claiming he town read him. At EOD, Maniac could have redirected the lynch to ND instead of ghug, which any of us voting ghug could have, but I believe the rest of us suspected ghug was scum. Maniac is now taking credit for town reading ghug despite helping to lynch him. Maniac voting for ghug instead of ND is why I think ND also being scum is a possibility. However, it is possible Maniac just wanted to take out ghug.

I now think that Maniac/Oztra is the likeliest scum combination, with Maniac/ND the next most likely possibility.

##Vote Maniac

That is the most thourough and well spoken argument I’ve seen this entire game and my argument for bozo is nothing compared to that.

I even went back and looked at all of this myself and I am willing to concede to bozo that I will vote Maniac but I hope you realize being a top scum read and then getting a town lynched will ultimately seal your fate Tomorrow. Soooo @bozo, are you confident enough with this maniac vote to put your life on the line?

I feel pretty comfortable with Maniac and Bozo being the two main wagons. Bozo play today improved a lot (good case on Maniac), but he could still be doing a desperate effort to survive (even bussing Maniac). And Maniac is scummy as hell.

Can I just address this notion that manipulating people is scummy. Scum start the day with more knowledge than town and can work together to target someone and use their knowledge to save their team mates. Town start without that knowledge but want the town to work together to counter-balance some of scum's advantage. This is why i get annoyed when town players sit on the sidelines and away from the top lynch candidates at EOD.

In simple terms town manipulation someone is VERY good for town. Suppose we end up with 2 town v 1 scum. There is a 66% chance that town will lose by mis-lynching. But if one town player can manipulate one other player then town's chances of losing reduce to 50% and the lynch is 100% town led (even if it's wrong).

In my case I manipulated Chaqa early on, I got him to move his vote from Town Ghug to Scum Ezio. I only came Ezio in the final moments. It was Chaqa 6 v Ghug 5 v Ezio 4. I had to decide between Chaqa and Ghug or leave others to either tie of switch from Chaqa to ghug (whom i was townreading). My vote is entirely consistent with making a choice between the two leading contenders.

If Rdriveria hadn't have switched from Ezio to Chaqa and/or Bozo would have voted for anyone else other than Town Ghug just before me, I may never have moved of Ezio. If Ezio had been killed than my manipulation of chaqa would have been hailed as heroic, not scummy.

Bozo and Rdriveria D1 EOD voting have far more questions to answer than I do.

I guess I am fine with my CB vote although I may look at some of the other cases.

@maniac, why wait until now to explain your actions? Why not explain back on day 4 when you almost got eaten? Anyways, on to the body of the message, I agree with you that manipulation by town is good, however you said it yourself that town start without any knowledge, so the only people that would know if your manipulation is truly by town would be you (regardless of alignment) and the scum team. If you are town, YOU wouldn't even know at the time if your actions were pro town or anti town. Why risk the possibility of chaqa being scum and Ezio being town and have an anti town move like that on D1? On top of that, after you have made the move, why not believe in it and just stay where you are and not switch off Ezio to Chaqa?

As for your situation, if it's a 2v1 with no clears the odds are even worse for the town IMO, both townies have to pick scum which they would have a 50% chance of doing, which would mean they have a 75% chance they would lose by mislynching. In this situation manipulation by town does take the odds down to 50% which you stated. I do think that town manipulation is good in this case, however, in this case and every other case as a townie, there is no way to distinguish if manipulation is town or scum in the moment.

Back to D1, "I got him to move his vote from Town Ghug to Scum Ezio" there was no way to know this D1 unless you were scum, even if you are town this brings me back to the questions at the bottom of paragraph one. Second quote "In my case I manipulated Chaqa early on" twelve minutes left is not early on in my opinion, anything under 30 minutes is the EOD scramble. During those last 12 minutes you didn't make any push for Ezio or anyone else, besides throwing out a "I'd lynch bozo" with 2 minutes left.

《《 Official Vote Count 6.3 》》
bozotheclown(3) ubercacher16, rdrivera2005, peterlund
Maniac (3) RagingIke297, bozotheclown, CommanderByron
ND (1) Oztra
CommanderByron (1) ND
rdrivera2005 (1) Maniac

4 hours remain

《《 https://youtu.be/VUb450Alpps 》》