I suppose one last word: Naples wasn't at risk. You could have bounced there, as I thought you would have. You still would have had two centres to throw the game.

And what was I going to say? No, I'm not giving up Vienna? One of my last messages before this morning was that I had no ideas as to how to proceed beyond waiting. I had no plans of giving up any further centres, and I couldn't have said this for fear that you'd throw the game because of it.

It's a risky business, eliminating people who have just promised to throw the game. : ) I'd respond more, but if you can't hang around to defend, I'll leave it there for now.

I've been scrolling through the last couple of moves there and it seems pretty surreal. I don't understand how that move could ever be justifiable.
Obviously Turkey must have fouled some things up if it came to that point but convoying into Rome just immediately loses the game.

If you want to move some grandiose statement because you're worried about being eliminated, why not convoy into Tuscany or support into Piedmont so you still have a fighting chance at making it to the draw.

"But I'm supposed to assume he's still working on the three-way?"

No, you're supposed to make sure he is. Throwing a game you can still draw in is just quitting.

Full Press I gameID=92990 3 way draw (Iberia, California, Capital Region)
Full Press II gameID=97655 won by California
Public Press gameID=93086
Gunboat I gameID=93618
Gunboat II gameID=94985 3 way draw (Balkans, Iberia, Pacific Northwest)

Table
California 591
Iberia 229
Capital Region 147
Balkans 78.5
Pacific Northwest 76,5
Ontario 13
Texas 0

I wouldn't fault Italy too much for being so scared. Turkey virtually surrounded him. A request to pull back from piedmont, Tyrolia, and Trieste would have been the first thing to ask for. You have to draw a thick line in the sand at that point, after he'd seen what happened to Russia. Still semck, it doesn't make sense what you did in the context of the tournament, since you just screwed your team out of any chance of winning. If this was a stand-alone game I'd understand your actions, but you hurt your teammates in this case.

But my critiques come from earlier in the game. You caused Germany to get this big, Italy. France was Germany's only check, and you were fundamental in destroying him (also doesn't help that he was on my team haha). At the same time, your teaming up with Turkey weakened Russia, the only other check on Germany while letting Turkey grow and consolidate while spreading yourself far, far too thin. And your reaction to the stab was nonexistent. Russia made some mistakes too in regards to not defending his territories in England, but you should have seen that coming as well. Your actions in France and lack of action against Turkey around 1906 fundamentally imbalanced the game.

Here's my take on it, as semck's teammate who just lost hopes of winning the cup:

Way to go semck!

Obviously this was not the optimal result, but given the circumstances, it was the best available. Think about it from the point of view of each player. Germany wants the solo and, failing that, a two-way draw. Italy wants to make it into a draw. Assume for now the Turkey's motives are unknown, other than that he doesn't want a German solo, as they were. For Germany, Italy is offering to throw the game, and he sees that the quickest, safest way to do that is a convoy to Rome. Anything else is likely to alert Turkey, give the two of them a chance to stop it, and make the three-way the most likely option. A three-way is the worst possible outcome for Germany, so he will refuse any less direct throwing method for fear that its likelihood will increase. That leaves Italy with two options, convoy or don't convoy. If he convoys, Germany will continue to back off, increasing the incentive for Turkey to go for the two-way, which is likely his preferred outcome. Given that Turkey has made no attempt to back off for the last several years, and clearly isn't taking Italy's threats seriously, Italy has to assume at this point that Turkey wants him dead, and that Germany's going to be continuing to back off, making it impossible for him to throw in the future. This makes throwing the only viable option.

The rest of you are seeing this from the outside: "He just cost us our chance at winning." You all would have preferred the two-way, because it would have given your team a better shot at winning the tournament, and that too is logical for you. You should not, however, blame semck for acting in the best interests of his team rather than the best interests of your team.


@Yonni, I'm sure you remember the game I threw to you in a very similar fashion because there was a third party still madly driving for a solo. You obviously understood (and appreciated) my motivation there, and the third party did too, once he had some time to cool off. Why is this game any different?

@ghug - the point that I touched briefly upon is that it was in fact better for your team that he took the chance for the 3 way. Even if he was eliminated, your team would have a chance to recover. A solo would, logically, be the worst case scenario for your team as well.

I disagree, though though I'm not going to embellish much on that until all games have finished, except to say that tournament placing isn't a winner takes all system, and thus a chance at second place is better than third.

Hmmm, well I suppose that's true, but you pretty much forfeited your shot at first.

I honestly don't think we had much of a shot at first without the three-way there, and with Kyle talking now about how he reconsidered because Germany said he was going for the solo again, which he only did because semck was going to throw, I don't think a three-way was very likely.

I must say that I'm shocked at how Full Press II ended. I was much more worried about Gunboat I because it seemed that Full Press II was stable and ready for a draw. All you guys had to do was sit still and wait for the mods to force a draw. Shame on you both!

Now Iberia is less than half as mighty as its former puny colony and it's all KyleFC's and semck83's fault!

I'll save a full detailing for an eventual EoG, but for now I'll say this:

In my opinion, Italy had zero chance at a three-way draw. Turkey and I, though we were not the quickest to come to agreement, were able to negotiate and compromise, which is what eventually led to the demise of Russia. I believe that Russia's defeat showed Turkey that I was willing to two-way, and showed Italy that Turkey was also willing to two-way (which of course meant his demise).

This belief of mine is cemented by the fact that Italy immediately appealed to me the moment Turkey began closing in on him (which itself immediately followed Russia's defeat, as I'd warned Italy). Italy made it very clear to me that he understood his impending fate, and would rather me solo than two-way with Turkey. I analyzed his message thoroughly, and considered the circumstances, and concluded that his offer was genuine.

His initial proposal was long and complex, and I had no interest in it. I wanted either an immediate solo shot, or a two-way. A three-way was unacceptable, and I still had more concessions in my pocket I could make to appease the Turks.

I countered with the much simpler Mar-Rome, and made it clear that if Italy really wanted me to solo he would make that move. Otherwise, I would cut him out of the draw, same as Russia. I believe that, had I continued to pull back, Turkey would attack Italy and two-way (as the two of us had been planning for years). And I think Italy believed that too.

That just left the matter of ensuring that Turkey didn't dislodge Tyrrhenian. After probing him for his moves for a bit, I was left unsatisfied that he wouldn't block Italy's throw (which I was about 90% certain he would actually do). So, about six hours before the deadline, I informed Turkey that I would be stabbing him, and that Italy had promised to throw me the game if the Turkish attack continued.

Only Turkey can tell you whether or not this message influenced his moves, but when I woke up this morning I found my men vacationing in Rome.

And I have been grinning ever since.

tl;dr it's Turkey's fault.

In other news, Tasnica lives in the Pacific Northwest, so those points should really go to us.

Tasnica:

KyleFC should have seen that he was pressuring semck83 to the breaking point by moving and sat still like a good boy.

semck83 had no incentive to take your convoy offer (other than keeping his word, which is pointless because the game would have already been over). You told semck83 that you would eliminate Italy and go for a 2-way unless you could go for the win. If semck83 really didn't think surviving to a draw was likely, then he/she could have waited one phase and then started to help you win. Why would you not have taken semck83's offer next phase? Why would you go for the 2-way draw next phase if semck83 was offering to use its 4 units to give you a solo win?

Because he wouldn't have had 4 units with which to help me. I was convinced (and so was Italy) that Turkey would be attacking the Italians that turn, which would have reduced them to 3 or 2 units. Pushing forward in that circumstance would have either scared Turkey into begging Italy for mercy and forcing a three-way (unacceptable), or force a two-way anyway. Thus, I accepted Italy's offer only on the condition of an immediate solo.

Turkey is clearly in the wrong here, not Italy. It is Turkey's job to make Italy comfortable. Period. Turkey wouldn't have lost any security even if he gave Italy all of Austria. If that's what Italy wanted, that's what Turkey should have given it to him. To everyone who is posting expecting Italy to tolerate brinksmanship of the kind Turkey was engaging in, you are simply wrong.

That's a good point uclabb. My only beef would be that the convoy didn't have to be to Rome. He could have made the point in a different, less conclusive way.

I probably wouldn't have accepted anything else (and if I would, I certainly wasn't telling Italy that). To be honest, I'd been yanked around so many times by Italy and Russia by that point with false solo promises that I was on the verge of doing whatever Turkey asked to make a two-way happen. That's what happened to Russia, and I think Italy saw the pattern. I was fed up with it, and he knew it.

That's fair. It's an interesting situation at any rate.

Tasnica: semck83 would have been left at 3 units, not 2, should Turkey have stabbed. KyleFC was not going to stab into Nap. Next phase, semck83 would still have been able to throw the game for you. I understand that you would not have benefitted from semck83 declining your convoy offer given that a 3-way would remain a possibility, but that does not explain why semck83 didn't wait another phase. It is not your reasoning, but semck83's that doesn't add up. KyleFC would not have been able to force a 2-way if you and semck83 began working together towards your solo (because either you would solo or Turkey would back off and allow a 3-way). As I see it, the outcome semck83 wanted to avoid more than any other was a 2-way where Italy would be eliminated. But given that there would not have been a 2-way if semck83 had waited an extra phase, its convoy of Mar-Rom makes absolutely no sense no matter which way you look at it.

uclabb and Yonni: Yes, KyleFC should have given Italy all the room in the world. But semck83 could have made a point without working with Tasnica at all (Tasnica reportedly wasn't willing to do anything other than convoy). Retreating from Pie and GoL would have been scary enough; and it would have left semck83 in a great position to throw the game anyway.

JECE, Tasnica has openly acknowledged that he was planning to go for the two way if Italy hadn't done so that turn. This isn't really an argument.

Yeah, Italy had already broken his promise to throw me the game back in 1911, and I made it clear that if he left me hanging again I would not hesitate to turn down a non-certain solo shot and settle for a two-way (and I showed that I meant it by doing just that to Russia, who also left me hanging). I knew that if I freaked out Turkey too many times, he would grow paranoid enough to turn down even a "guaranteed" two-way. I think that Italy got the picture.

Tasnica:
Well there you go: KyleFC would have been freaked out and would turn down a gauranteed 2-way. You said it there, not I. Honestly, I doubt you would have turned down the chance of a solo if semck83 was handing it to you on a silver platter without lying or decieving you in any way. If semck83 had said 'OK, I'm moving away from the frontline to defend myself from Turkey. Feel free to follow up behind me and claim a solo if the Turks don't back off.', you would most certainly have taken up the offer.That you would not move into Pie and GoL because you feared that that would scare KyleFC into accepting a 3-way draw doesn't make sense to me; by not moving you would be giving KyleFC and semck83 the buffer needed to make ammends in a timely manner.

ghug: See above.

As a minor point, JECE, I was never in Pie.

JECE, no, you are wrong. Tasica just pretty clearly stated that he would not have followed him because he wanted a 2-way and not a 3-way. I understand that your mad because it has hurt your team's chances, but semck made the right choice.

ghug: Tasnica wanted a solo.
But no, I am not mad. I am a bit annoyed, yes, but the fact of the matter is that both parties made mistakes that cost them the draw.

semck83: You could have supported Tasnica into Pie.