Draug, I'm glad my first election is going to have nothing to do with Obama because I probably wouldn't have supported him if not for Romney running against him. If there were a genuine moderate (not a radical's moderate) running, I'd have probably swayed that way. Like you with Palin, the alternative is more scary than the primary option, and that's why I'd vote against Romney.
I don't blame the American people for electing Bush. As a matter of fact, the American people didn't elect Bush, they elected Gore - by that much. The Electoral College elected Bush, and we - the American people - elected the Electoral College. That's the system and that's its biggest flaw... in that way, yeah, hindsight is 20/20.
I am going to use hindsight when I vote. Not my hindsight, but my history books' hindsight, my teachers' hindsight, my parents' hindsight. Why? Because I don't like Jefferson's policy, nor do I like Coolidge's policy, nor do I like either Bush's policy. I like Teddy Roosevelt's policy, I like Wilson's policy (to a point... he was kind of a raging naive idealist in his foreign policy, but that's beside the point), and I like Lincoln's policy. They were all regulators and if they know what they are doing (which the first and last undeniably did, Wilson the debatable one), they worked out great.
Obviously that can go the other way just as easily, and that's where the risk is at in all of politics, but I don't trust the system enough to go with laissez-faire either.