@guak have you read my page 32 post do you not think we have a high chance of finding a scum from the balki vote whether that is you, bo, espi, or me?

@saladin so to clarify these are stats you are making up bases on your gut?

bo: "Also, what reason did Tr have to vote for Balki?" Oh, you know, being self centered and saving my own ass instead of trying to get one of my scumreads lynched.

@SS just to clarify you are saying lynch Espi not because you believe he's mafia, but because you believe his being revealed town will tell us who the mafia is? Is that correct?

@ty what?

@tr sorry hit the y instead of r on my phone

Also, here's the case I've been working on.

My logic thus far:

I: guak is town, I’m thinking he got suckered on the Balki vote with Epsi.

II: Did NOT realize that DL was also thinking that guak was mafia as of page 17, but hitting hard around the Epsi/Yoyo mark on pg. 19. With his death it’s making me look at TrPrado, YoYo, Epsi

III. The Americaslacker/captainmean vote on guak is VERY strange in hindsight. Check it out on page 17.

PART I

My case on Guak is closed for now based on his analysis on page 17 and his read on TrPrado on pg. 19.

PART II

A. TrPrado because of Balki’s last set of reads on pg. 18 and his insistence on guak. Balki’s analysis, goes mostly unanswered and seems pretty dang solid as I’ve been rereading.

B. YOYO because:

1.) His strong defense of Epsi highlighted in Balki’s case here:

“”@Town,

I suggest you take a close read of Yoyo’s post at the bottom of page 10, and consider it an example of how to be unhelpful to town. I’d like us all to strive to do much better than this.

First, Yoyo says “No one should be lynched for being stupid, and there's a clear distinction between scummy behavior and clueless behavior.”

I disagree vehemently that this distinction is clear.””


2.) His turning on Epsi and then buddying to him. . . Was this a defensive move on Yoyo’s part? Pg. 15

“YOYO: Espi can you explain why you posted on page 6 that “I am also taking a more observant role in Scum hunting, being a target instead of actually accusing people for now," when you scumread me for not being proactive? It seems pretty hypocritical and scummy that you declare that you're taking a backseat in the game but then criticize me for supposedly doing it (although I beg to differ)”

3.) His case against Epsi on pg. 15 is reactionary, but not super solid.

4.) The yoyoyo and Epsi love fest on page 16.

5.) ND’s “Reads list #1” pg. 17 is pretty thorough but he’s got a vote in for Epsi, so like me he’s thinking YOYO and epsi are together? So why the switch to Balki?
(your read of me is pretty douchy though, thanks for keeping it classy.)

6.) Jeff’s read of him on Page. 17


C. EPSI: see Balki on Epsi everytime. He’s riding him hard. He’s like a bloodhound. but the most telling is this scummy post on page. 14
1.) Epsi: “Who else thinks that the Cop should not reveal this early on?”

“BALKI: His statement “I want to have it down for those looking back to this page end game” does not sound to me like it comes from a vanilla townie. A vanilla townie would not start the game with the notion that folks after the game are going to be re-reading the first page of the thread thinking about what vanilla townie Espi claimed on D1. Especially a vanilla townie who is self-proclaimed new to the game. On the other hand, a hacker would absolutely be considering his legacy, and considering the End of Game reader who will later read D1 knowing full well who the bad guys are.

This is the post that plants Espi firmly at the top of my suspects list for now, and I don’t think it matches the “clueless townie” narrative that is his best defense.”

2.) immediately after BALKI votes Epsi on page 14 this:

“Epsi: Well, I didn't fool BB for long :P Did I make an obvious scum tell this time?”

3.) Phil’s read on page 12 hits Epsi hard too. Phil did you finish with that vote on Epsi?


PART III

Americaslacker/Captainmean:

The Americanslacker vote on guak on bottom of 17 looks really suspicious. Had no idea that was happening at the time. I missed the vote because of RL. But this one bugs me most of all.

ND: I was looking at the previous page. That was me quoting bo in a question to SS. What I said would have been the only actual answer, especially even in SS's logic.

@ND: I believe the Balki wagon was mostly town led. Mafia had no incentive to start a new wagon or to give power to a new wagon unless two or more of the three in the block were scum. I know I am not scum and I find it pretty hard to believe that Tr and Espi are a scum team. Thus, with no incentive for mafia to move their vote around near EoD at most there may be one mafia in there. But one in 4 has worse odds than 2 in 7. From my perspective it is 1 in 3 which is slightly better, but since only three of us would have that perspective I would much rather look into the larger pool. Besides, townies in the larger pool also have the 2 in 6 improved odds that make it an even more appealing pool. plus, the fact that I think it is way more likely that all four of us voting BB were town makes that a very unappealing small pool.

For me the best small pool to analyze is the one of those who were around at the deadline and failed to move their vote to secure a lynch. That is why I am focusing on the pool of JK, phil, Tr and Saladin. Saladin I find scummiest for now due to his open intention to cause a draw and because of his recent refusal to pursue his top scum reads. This may all be noobishness so I am keeping an open mind here, and want to reread the rest of the players in the pool, but for now I think SS makes the most sense.

Also, @bo: I read the case and there is some merit to it. But I want to build my own case before getting to any conclusions. I have definitely felt that JK has tried buddying up to me, so that is interesting, but at the same time, typical buddying up targets are players in the style of Yoyo, not me. So, I am still evaluating whether that is scummy or not. Definitely going to reread.

Lucland, I did answer Balki's case. I can look back for my response, but the case itself really didn't have much to it. Just because Balki is dead doesn't mean his case is necessarily more valid.

...Yeah ok, I've still got more reading to do, but I've been on this for hours and back to work tomorrow. sheesh.

@ND - In the case of Jeff, yes. In most other cases, I provided some reasoning in the post.

@Lucland - Well, not so much that it will tell us who's mafia, but it will give us much more direction than any other death at this point. Everybody has said what they've thought of Espi several times over the course of the game, right?

Saladin if you are asking why I moved to bb I answer this numerous times since I voted bb around 25 on phone getting back on laptop

@Lucland: Can you talk a little bit more about why your case on Guak is closed?

So, yeah, guak-Espi connection investigation to come when I have time. I stated I was suspect of this some time ago, and DL said he saw it too, but he didn't get around to investigating it since he's now dead.

@Guak: I could pull up quotes (if needed). Several times you have stated you do no believe Espi is scum. Do you still believe Espi to not be scum?

Here's DL on the matter of Yoyo as an effective scumhunter. (pg. 19)

"Has Yoyo done any scumhunting so far?

A. Yes
B. No

Answer: B"

I've still not reviewed the Balki files, but no doubt DL is a strategic move.

So, I found where the Balki Bandwagon began, and I think I know why. I must say, I’m SHOCKED. And to think I actually believed all the misdirection and game for a second. How dare you. You all should be ASHAMED. I actually believed it – but this cannot be ignored.

Pg. 20

Balki gives town reads on Guak and Saladin. And the result is essentially a battle of “noobs” (isn’t that how you spell it, bo? Or is it “newb,” ND?) against the oldies. Don’t believe me, reread page 20. Look at Balki and especially look at Guak, pulling snuff out of thin air and pinning it on Balki. And by the way ZERO remorse for leading the pack on this kill. Interesting there’s no lingo for the experienced ones. In pool and cards it’s a shark, isn’t it? Or should it be marines? “Semper fidelis – always loyal”

Balki on Guac:

“Guak returns after a sabbatical at 13, and votes for Saladin for “argumenting in favor of a no lynch.” I think that Guak and others are too dismissive of Saladin’s ideas, and a little too wedded to ideas/strategies that have been too quickly adopted as proven theories on this site. But Guak’s acceptance of these “theorems” is consistent with Guak’s approach/worldview, and I don’t find it suspicious that he’s voting based on it. Continues his push on Saladin further down 13 for the same reasons – the suggestion of a no lynch.”

And on Saladin:

More discussion of WIFOM and Saladin’s opinions about the accuracy of a Day 1 lynch on 13. Saladin says: “No, I don't claim to have a better strategy than a shot in the dark. My first post said that I was taking a shot in the dark because that's all we can do at this point. Everyone else seems to think they're doing some complicated psychological profile, and I'm just pointing out that it all comes down to a shot in the dark.” Saladin is very defensive here, and clearly frustrated. But I think that’s because he’s getting hammered based on assumed Webdip theorems, when Saladin actually has a point about the inaccuracy and potential bias of a Day 1 lynch. What I’ve quoted above from Saladin is a good explanation of why a Day 1 lynch can be problematic, but nobody is agreeing with Saladin (I think, wrongly).


Balki doesn’t realize that by discrediting the webdip “theorems” that he’s going to be pissing some people off. The same people targeting SS. The same people, who, if we were to say collectively, your theorems are not proofs (and really, are they theorems?) would push back and push back hard. Because this game is about teaching the “noobs” the ropes, and that means the . . . theorems. Think about it: if we WERE a game of just “noobs” … would we be practicing the “theorems?” Their entire existence is tied to this concept. Balki, cleared guak as town, sure , but discredited every tool he has to tear people down. It is the very source of his power. And the younger of the Sith, just follow the master. Maybe Bo and ND are innocent, can’t blame them for wanting to join the darkside – it’s cool looking and who doesn’t want to fit in? But, Guak is for sure your Palpatine. This is no small time player right here: (pg. 26)

GUAK: No one is willing to switch to Balki after his scumslip. That is quite odd.

Then in three posts back to back. I’m not making it up! LOOK at it pg. 25

What are these “theorems”? Written by people who love the game, people who spend time with it, study it, to be sure. Did you write the theorems guak? Are you besties with someone who did?

Guak, Bo, ND and Epsi

Three heavy duty practitioners of the “thereoms” and one apprentice. Make no mistake, whoever “wins” this game the “thereoms” will prevail. This will make enemies of the experienced players, I’m sure – but check your pride at the door.

Let me tell you a bit about my name guak, Luc is for light. Lucland: light on the land, light walking on the land. This is the hero that will bring down your empire.

What does your theorem say about that, SCUM?

##VOTEguak


(In conclusion, assuming they are theorems, are they perfect? No. Are they valuable? Probably. How much? don't really know. Not a problem with using them, but a problem with thinking they are 100% fool proof.)

If you need further proof that the general is PISSED. Check out his vote on Saladin. criticizing his game up and down, cause he doesn't play correctly. Read page 20 and read page 25.

"Guak: [redacted]VOTE Saladin. He not only tried to tie the vote, but now produces that bogus list of reads and votes for his 3rd highest townread! Wtf is that?

ND, Epsi and Bo tell us why you voted Balki. BACK to BACK for god's sake. WHY? and who are your reads now?

@lucland: read my post 32 i already told everyone why

Wow, and I just found the DeathLama vote for me on page 21. Well played general, sir. Well played.

@ND I'm only on page 21, but I'm going the 32 now.

@lucland, wait you haven't read the whole thread?

It's unfortunate that you can't see the timestamps now. I can't speak for the others, but I cross posted all four of them. The last thing I saw when I began writing to get that wagon going again was that guak unvoted. So, in short, there is no significance to the order in which we voted, at least not on my end.

Why did I vote for Balki? Because he scumslipped. And don't argue it - he *did* scumslip. The fact of the matter is that it drew my attention and convinced me to make a knee-jerk reaction that I now regret. I explained in detail all of this before; I recommend you go back and read it. I also gave my reads and a substantial case at the end of the night, and that you don't know that makes me think you haven't read that either.

@guak .. fair enough. Let me know what you find. Given that Jeff's anchor gives him a perpetual excuse to lurk today, I don't think there is any rush.

Dude, you're only there? Wow. Making such in depth analysis on three quarters of day 1. Making accusations too. That's... odd. I guess.

All four, meant all three ^^

Btw this is Bo on guak on pg. 32

"Guak has always been crafty as mafia (and SK for that matter, though that's largely irrelevant here). He's gutsy and perfectly willing to start his own wagon. Then again, I don't see him as the type to try to save someone else unless he plans on bussing them later (probably tomorrow), so if he goes after someone who Balki's wagon took the pressure off of, we should give it a second look."

Guak targets two people in that initial post on 20. I think it was Balki and TrPrado, but his band wagon takes pressure of of Epsi, who jumps ship. It's actually quite hysterical and incredibly messed up.

So Bo, why did you vote Balki?

I already answered that, above and before. Also, that read on guak has nothing to do with anything going on here because he hasn't had the chance to bus someone yet. Unless Prado and him are buddies, which I am pretty damn certain they aren't, he didn't bus anyone yesterday.