@Tr it had merit but neither case on yourself nor BB fully convinced me, I felt it was worth my vote however. Better to risk losing either of you with the chance of getting Mafia, then allow one of you to live with the chance you might be Mafia. I have stated suspicions of yourself and a few others, so when the chance came, I took it.

Still think d1's lynch was really disappointing.

It's interesting to note that the Tr wagon practically disintegrated - Tr/Espi both might have been protected. It's also possible we have multiple mafia or everyone's town in that group.

"Looking over that, Yoyo claims he pulled his vote off as things had changed a lot since he was last on and he didn't want his old vote to be counted."

@DL likely they aren't his true intentions, but that is what he claimed and he hasn't posted since.

"Sorry I have been puking for the past several hours" and "I can't reread and I don't want my vote counted [REDACTED]UNVOTE" were Yoyos last quotes on page 26

Something of note - it could be worth copsofting. If everybody does it n1 mafia can't really narrow down cop that much but we can also salvage valuable info if cop does die. In other words, everybody states their

I realize I was staunchly against this same idea in M9, but the situation was different then - this is simply everyone revealing (hopefully making a bit of an effort to make sense) who their first innoscan that the cop received was.

@DL I am a bit iffy on that. At first I thought it might confuse us more then the Mafia as we now have a lot of soft claims, any of which might be real, but then I thought that whoever we soft claim should be very telling later on. This basically makes the Mafia have to either go after the most reasonable Cop, go after whoever they think would distract us, or go after whoever they think is the strongest town.

I think any cop softing should wait until Day 2 though.

IMO we can just ignore it until a cop is nightkilled, which at least gives us a freebie clear. If the town actually makes sense (e.g. me saying you were my clear would not make sense) then it won't really give mafia any useful info (unless everyone picks a mafioso, which is unlikely) and it'll give us useful info if cop dies before they claim

@DL: I don't understand your copsoft idea. Your previous post got cut off. Please explain again?

Everyone says who their free innocent scan would be if they were cop

I'm a bit iffy on that too. I think our D1 loss of a town favorite makes it harder to justify copsofting.

We didn't get much information from the BB lynch because it appears to be heavily influenced by his false scumslip. Trying to determine relationships with BB isn't going to yield as good of results as if Espi or TrPrado or guak had gone down.

So copsofting would seem to just give the scum actionable intelligence. That is, if a vanilla townie fake copsofted someone who was scum, the scum could use process of elimination to better target the real cop.

We need to protect our cop as long as possible. I'm against copsofting...at least at night. During the day there is more time to talk through the possibilities and the scum can't benefit immediately.

Good point that night talking is optional and apparently a lot of us have decided to take the night off. I'll post an updated set of reads.

##REVIVE BALKI

It might help if we all discuss how our EOD1 was. I'll start.

I had issues finding a good lynch early EOD1, trying to pick between Guak (my original first choice who was looking a lot less scummy after his activity picked up), Yoyo (not a popular choice, but one who'd done many scummy things), Espi (upon reread a scum candidate and good information lynch, but still came off really town-y at times), and Lucland/Slacker (for various reasons, random votes on Guak one example).

But from no really good lynch candidates I eventually found one - I decided the information aspect of Espi's lynch would give us more suspects, and with Espi starting to look overall scummier than Guak I voted Espi.

Guak started up the Balki-wagon after his alleged slip (which I still don't find a slip, it's right there in the PE how-to guide and he may have read it. In addition, his explanation was strong)

On pg26, I make my "Balki looks good under pressure, I'll stick to Espi for now" but with four votes (Guak/ND weren't budging, Espi was saving himself, bo wasn't around) Balki still leads 4-3 (with 3 for a frankly puzzling guak-wagon that had 2 unjustified votes).

I was doing math at this point and sort of occasionally checking in, and lost track of the time. I came back on with seven minutes to go, didn't realize there were seven minutes to go, and went off. By the time I came back on, I realized there wasn't enough time left to save Balki and frustratedly switched to him to ensure there wouldn't be a tie.

My EOD1:
I was still on the TrPrado wagon which I had started, stopped and then restarted in earnest. I was pretty happy with how that was going, until guak switched to Balki and then all hell broke loose.

I stayed with TrPrado as long as possible. I was kind of hoping someone, anyone would have made the switch to Espi, then I would have jumped on him to break the tie and save Balki. I just didn't feel like there was enough time at the end to initiate a tie between Espi and Balki. There was so little participation (it was eerily quiet!) to make that move when no one else may have followed.

@Jeff, do you think I will best serve the town D2 by being the Lynch?

It's quiet this night. I'm going to have a busy RL day. Here are my updated quick reads for N1:

Espi: neutral
guak: neutral (downgrade from slight town)
TrPrado: slight scum
phil_a_s: slight town
ND: slight scum (downgrade from slight town)
bo_sox48: slight scum
Yoyoyozo: neutral (upgrade from slight scum)
DeathLlama9: slight town
americaslacker: neutral (policy lynch?)
Jeff Kuta: me
SaladinSmith: slight scum (downgrade from neutral)
Lucland: neutral (policy lynch?)

@Espi: I don't know. It's impossible to say right now. You are not my top scum-read, so I still favor the TrPrado lynch and a couple others. But if you died and flipped town, we'd learn a lot.

If we do the copsoft thing tomorrow during the day, lots could change. Any one of us could be killed tonight as well.

@DL: copsofting is a bad idea unless we all do it a minute before the deadline. Since that is not going to happen, it is a bad idea. Also, PE makes a lot of mistakes, the fact that his guide says that would be one of the mistakes. It is pretty damn obvious that scumhunting entails risk taking and that taking these risks is the opposite behavior of trying to gain town credits (barring success in scumhunting which translates into some town credit). Thus, scumhunting and earning town credits are at odds with each other if you choose to pursue the latter before the first.

@guak BB was asked atleast twice if he had read it and did not reply.

@Jeff heres a question, did ND try to lead the lynch away from Tr? He and bo were the ones that decided it, I stayed on Tr as it kept me alive until BB was a decent shot.

Ugggggggh I don't want to do reads right now sorry but I'm already starting to lose interest in this game I'll post some thoughts later forgive me

Jeff, regarding policy lynch, who would you prefer of those two to get lynched?

NEVER MIND I THINK I CAUGHT ESPI

On page 22, bo_sox asks me if I'm keeping the vote tracker updated (I regretfully inform you that so far I have not), and Espi replies with this gem:

@bo, DL hasn't been keeping the vote tracker updated at all. I have been doing more of the logging then he has so far. He even still has my voting for bo on there which I never did. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PRQW6YgyqroUVJHm80NrPYcyWn3Kp6j82K98mo2Eues/edit#gid=0

EXCEPT HE LINKS MY SPREADSHEET

This is because Espi hasn't updated my spreadsheet. Ffs, he can't update my spreadsheet, it's comment-only and it has DeathLlama as the owner. I assume he tried to get some town cred with that post, but he lied about it and I can't see town doing that as it's before he de-martyred. I have proven this by writing "Espi is scum" on the spreadsheet

JACK. POT. ##VOTE ESPI gogogo

@Espi … "I was part of a lynch on an innocent man. No I am not going to try and distance myself from that."

Don't you get it, Espi? My point was that you *are* distancing yourself from it, consistently too. Look at my last post. I called you out on it. You do it again here:

"did ND try to lead the lynch away from Tr? He and bo were the ones that decided it, I stayed on Tr as it kept me alive until BB was a decent shot."

This explanation is hilarious, by the way, considering you voted for Balki before I did. But that's beside the point. The point is that you continue, over and over again, to separate yourself from our mislynch despite saying that you aren't and won't do so.

@phil … "guak's contribution to the lynch doesn't seem as scummy to me because it's a lot more common for mafia to jump onto someone else's starting wagon than to create their own, since they have a guaranteed supporter, and someone to blame."

Guak has always been crafty as mafia (and SK for that matter, though that's largely irrelevant here). He's gutsy and perfectly willing to start his own wagon. Then again, I don't see him as the type to try to save someone else unless he plans on bussing them later (probably tomorrow), so if he goes after someone who Balki's wagon took the pressure off of, we should give it a second look.

@DL … The whole idea with a Spartacus-style mass claim might have some merit, but this isn't the time. The mafia won't be going after the cop until they have something to go off of - I expect they'll go after their most imminent threat (or someone who they think could threaten them later) first, irregardless of who the cop is.

@Jeff … can you clarify your reads? You've got time before the deadline.

D1 Vote Analysis

Sorry Balki, but in retrospect I don’t regret the vote. I will explain my position below. Let’s go over the D1 lynch. How did it happen? Why did it happen? What was my role in it? But, most importantly how we can most assuredly get a mafia member caught from it.

From the Official Vote Count

Balki Bartokomous (4): guak, ND, Espi, Bo_sox48

*Although I should be the first name on this list because Guak un-voted and re-voted following my vote. But whatever I stand by the vote I made.*

Let’s review the ‘smoking gun’ at the time that influenced my vote.

Balki: “I've worked hard to earn townreads from others, which I think is good for town (not alignment indicative, I know, you don't have to tell me).” (Pg. 23)

-When this happened I was solidly set on Espi. I had been all day. You can look back over my statements, my analysis, and my reads. Please re-read. However, this statement by Balki nullified my vote on Espi. At the time I believe that a scum had slipped and after thinking about it, reviewing the statement several times, I had no other recourse but to vote for Balki and I stand by that vote.

I would do it again if someone made a similar slip.

Of course Balki flipped town which means he wasn’t mafia and I guess he really believes this ‘towncreds’ for ‘townreads’ thing. That is a concerning matter in itself.

So the lynch happened because I noticed what I thought was a huge scumslip. I was quickly followed by: Guak, Espi, Bo_sox48. This means Balki was lynched with four votes.

I know I am town, but no one else here can verify that, so that means to everyone reading into this you have at least a 25% chance of catching scum simply by focusing on the four players (myself included) who voted Balki. ****note* there is a remote chance that this vote was completely town driven (no mafia voters on Balki, but it is a remote possibility as my statistics will show you)***

I would be shocked if there wasn’t at least one (or more) scum who jumped on this wagon. I am going to pull a ‘Maniac’ from M9 and show you some research from other games. However, I’ll tell you these statistics don’t take long to gather. Anyone who wants to do their own evidence gathering can review them for yourself from the previous game threads/god threads.

Anyone of you can look at these facts. It won’t take you more than thirty minutes to go over it yourself.

------Previous Game Statistics--------

M1 D1 Lynch: Chaqa (8): VashtaNeurotic, The Hanged Man, pjmansfield99, kasimax, abgemacht (MAFIA), WardenDresden, krellin, TheJok3r (SERIAL KILLER)

8 votes/2 scum on the vote which means that 25% of the voters were scum.

M2 D1 Lynch: Slyguy270 (7): Socrates Dissatisfied, guak, WardenDresden, Uclabb, Damian, y2kjbk, ghug

Town Led Lynch

Couldn’t find any info on M3

M3.5 1 Lynch: captainmeme (7): ghug, pjmansfield99 (MAFIA), guak, President Eden (SERIAL KILLER), Maniac, VashtaNeurotic, Gtlblx

7 Votes/2 scum on the vote which means that 28% of the voters were scum.

M4 D1 Lynch: Squigs44 (5): ghug, semck83, y2kjbk, krellin, WardenDresden (MAFIA)

5 voters/1 scum on the vote which means that 20% of the voters were scum.

M6 D1 Lynch: VashtaNeurotic (5): ghug (MAFIA), Mintyboy4, Jeff Kuta, captainmeme, OB_Gyn_Kenobi

5 voters/1 scum on the vote which means that 20% of the voters were scum.

M5 D1 Lynch: tvrocks (6): Mintyboy4, President Eden (MAFIA), drano019, Jeff Kuta, stupidfighter, Wardendresden

6 voters/1 scum on the vote which means 16% of the voters were scum.

M7 D1 Lynch: phil_a_s(10): bo_sox48 (MAFIA), goldfinger0303 (MAFIA), Fluminator, Chaqa (ARSONIST), DeathLlama9, captainmeme, OB_Gyn_Kenobi, WardenDresden, Maniac (MAFIA), RagingIke297,

10 votes/4 scum on the vote which means 40% of the voters were scum.

M8 D1 Lynch: ND (10): phil_a_s, uclabb, guak (MAFIA), Christos, yassem, y2kjbk (MAFIA), Chaqa (MAFIA). Maniac, mrh308, Fluminator

10 voters/3 scum on the vote and the player lynched (me) was scum. This meant that 30% of the voters were scum.

M9 D1 Lynch: Yoyoyozo (9) DeathLlama, uclabb, ghug (MAFIA), OB_Gyn_Kenobi, Chaqa, captainmeme (MAFIA), wjessop (MAFIA), Brankl (SLEEPER), thdfrance.

9 votes/4 were scum (sleeper was a late game scum potential) which means 44% of the vote was scum.

M10 D1 Lynch: No lynch/Mafia ties the lynch.

----end statistics-- --

What do the statistics tell you? Well for every game where they are available (could not find M3) and with the exception of M2 there was a mafia presence on the player who was lynched D1.

In M10 a mafia member tied the vote to prevent a lynch. So there was mafia influence there as well.

In each D1 lynch with the exception of M2 (town driven) there was mafia influence on the vote ranging from one mafia player to FOUR mafia players being on the same vote. If we apply these statistics to M11 D1 lynch we find four players on Balki.

******note********* There is a remote possibility that our D1 lynch was completely town driven like M2. But in every other case there has been mafia influence on the vote. Our best chance at catching scum is to concentrate on the four players who voted Balki (myself included).

So who are these four players??

ND, Guak, Espi, Bo_sox48

Everyone should be critically reviewing and analyzing these four players. And I think our next lynch should be one of these four players, even if it is me. The quicker we narrow this down the faster we will find a mafia member.

Once we find our first mafia member we can start to draw connections to their team mates. That will be how we win.

So if I am alive D2 I will only focus on re-reading and analyzing Guak, Espi, Bo-Sox48. Like I said before there is a very remote chance that this was a total town driven lynch, but using statistical analysis of previous games I am inclined to believe that this is not the case.

Saladin/Phil and the Balki Lynch Aftermath

DL: “$$ VOTE BALKI” (Pg. 27)

-DL comes in late to try and prevent a tie. This pretty much townclears DL for me.-

SALADINSMITH (Pg. 27)

“$$VOTE ESPI”

-SS comes in to tie the vote; strange but we saw the chaos that ensued in M10 when Ghug (MAFIA) tied the vote and destabilized the entire game resulting in an independent scum victory. While SS is not in my three re-read stack I would encourage any other townies out there to really investigate this guy. He attempted to deprive us of information. While we lynched wrong I was still able to draw conclusions from the lynch. Conclusions I think can help us win the game.-

-I’m not going to quote SaladinSmith’s entire post on me from (pg. 31) but read it over. Here is an interest pull from it though-

“ Even before Balki's death, ND seemed suspicious for how vehemently he opposed Espi, when there was no evidence whatsoever against Espi. Now I think we're starting to see why.” (ibid)

-So Saladin has two theories on me. Both result in me being mafia. Both relate to me switching to Balki to prevent Espi’s death. 1) there is plenty of evidence Espi is guilty (but Balki’s ‘scumslip’ was the smoking gun for me and I stand by that). Please cite where I was ‘suspicious’ of Balki’s case on Espi.-

Phil_a_s

“The whole Balki wagon, because it was probably meant/used to save someone. “ (Pg. 28)

-Starts to set up this theory of the wagon being used to save someone. I started it because of a perceived smoking gun scumslip.-

“So, if the Balki wagon was saving someone, who was being saved. guak, TrPrado and Espi were the main wagons that day” (Pg. 31)

-I’ll show you where my, Guak’s, bo_sox’s, and Espi’s vote came from that will tell you potentially who could have been saved-

“guak definitely provided the wagon, but I'd say ND was more responsible for making it happen. “ (ibid)

“So, if TrPrado is scum, bo and ND seem to make pretty good scumbuddies for him, based on the case above. “ (ibid)

“The lynch was made by ND. “ (ibid)

-Phil is definitely trying to pin this on me. Rightly so I made it happen. I started the wagon and as I have stated I don’t regret it. Let’s take a look at Phil who sat on the fence the whole time. Interesting that he starts to set me up for it and allude to me starting it as quick as Page 28 though. Let’s not forget that Phil was on the sidelines cheering us on and nearly joining the wagon himself. Potentially the only other “town” member who was doing this during the leadup to the Balki lynch-

Phil: “Espi, by all means, vote Balki, the scumslip is perfectly valid evidence, “ (pg. 25)

-Eggs Espi on to join the wagon by stating it is ‘valid evidence’.-

Phil: “I must admit, Balki's style of defense is pretty convincing of his guilt.” (pg. 26)

-Continues to fuel the wagon from the sidelines by arguing that it is convincing, damning even, of Balk’s guilt.-

Phil: “No, it is not semantics. The goal of a townie is, by any means, to ensure that there are town alive when there are no mafia alive. Earning towncred is secondary to finding mafia, particularly since finding mafia is a way of earning towncred.” (ibid)

-Phil continues to argue from the sidelines why the Balki lynch is justified-

Phil: “I can switch to Balki just ahead of deadline, and also he'd have to switch to guak, but yeah.” (pg. 27)

-First mentions the possibility of him joining the wagon-

Phil: “Hell, if someone switches to Espi now, I would probably kneejerk vote Balki.” (ibid)

-Phil’s reaction to the lynch is very interesting considering he was contemplating and very close to voting Balki the entire time. Yet, he assumes the public face of prosecutor against me while before the lynch was staying just a millisecond away from joining it himself. His reactions before and after the lynch are extremely interesting and strange.-

Did you not think I could look back and compare your statements Phil?

Saladin and Phil’s reactions to the lynch are both interesting to me. However there is four pages of material to go through and almost everyone has posted on it. I would encourage everyone to re-read it for interactions, evidence, and analysis.
I choose to focus on Saladin and Phil’s statements for two reasons. 1) Phil fueled the wagon from the sidelines adding his opinions for why it was just and why people should even vote Balki. Yet the moment that lynch was done he started to prosecute everyone involved with it. Smart mafia play by not voting Balki (yet egging it on) then immediately attacking those who did it following the lynch.
Saladin tried to actually tie the lynch which would have given us no information. His attack on me is ridiculous. It’s almost as if he doesn’t read my statements. Who doesn’t read the thread? (answer: mafia). He said there was no evidence to vote Espi, there is a shit ton. Then he says that I was suspicious of Balki yet provides absolutely no citations or evidence. However the most damning thing is his singular interest in providing the town with no information by trying to tie the vote.

Where did the votes come from?

Unofficial vote count.

Espi (4): phil_a_s, Balki Bartokomous, ND, SaladinSmith
guak (3): Lucland, , americaslacker, Trprado
TrPrado (2): Jeff Kuta, Espi
SaladinSmith (1): Yoyoyozo,
Lucland (1): DeathLlama9,
Balki Bartokomous (1): guak,
Not Voted: bo_sox48 (added this in forgotten on original)

(Espi, Pg. 23 “Unofficial Vote Count”)

-SaladinSmith leaves Espi on Page 23 for TrPrado-

Espi (3): phil_a_s, Balki Bartokomous, ND,
guak (3): Lucland, , americaslacker, Trprado
TrPrado (3): Jeff Kuta, Espi, SaladinSmith
SaladinSmith (1): Yoyoyozo,
Lucland (1): DeathLlama9,
Balki Bartokomous (1): guak,

(Espi, Pg. 24 “Unofficial Vote Count”)

-DL unvotes and votes ESPI (pg. 24)

DAY ONE OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 4.0:
Espi (4): phil_a_s, Balki Bartokomous, ND, DeathLlama9
guak (3): Lucland, americaslacker, Trprado
TrPrado (3): Jeff Kuta, Espi, SaladinSmith
SaladinSmith (1): Yoyoyozo
Balki Bartokomous (1): guak

No Vote(1): bo_sox48

(Valis, Pg. 25 “Official Vote Count”)

-Guak revotes TyPrado before I vote Balki-

-I unvote Espi, I vote Balki, Guak votes Balki, Espi votes Balki, bo_sox48 votes Balki-

Bo-Sox48 vote comes from nowhere as he had un-voted earlier in the day. Espi and Guak’s votes come from TyPrado. My vote originally came from Espi.

So two votes came from TyPrado (Espi/Guak), one from Espi (mine)

That’s where the votes came from. So if Guak/Espi thought my case was without merit they could have held their votes on TyPrado and ensured the lynch of TyPrado (right?) Thus arguably either of them could have been bussing TyPrado (one of Balki’s suspects).

Thoughts to consider and to revisit later in D2 I think.

Conclusion

Using statistical analysis from previous games we have a great shot, near guaranteed chance, of catching one scum from (me, Guak, bo-sox48, or Espi). It is possible multiple mafia were on this. I know my innocence so I will concentrate on looking at Guak, bo_sox48, Espi. If I am lynched so be it, but my writing and analysis on the other three members of the wagon will exist and can be examined in more detail following my death.

Let’s not forget that Balki told us to look at “Espi, TrPrado, and Yoyo” while I am going to focus on Espi, Guak, and bo_sox48 first if I get the time I will look at TrPrado and Yoyo as well.

Just by viewing the aftermath we can see Prosecutor Phil, the player I have pinpointed as someone who was just as involved with the lynch as anyone who voted for Balki, and his pre-lynch/post-lynch statements. We also see Saladin’s strange (no evidence) statements against me and his attempt to tie the lynch. Both of these players are highly suspect.

Balki’s death won’t be in vain. I own the lynch and I am going to make the best of it. Using my method I believe we have a good chance of finding one mafia member and from that mafia member’s death we should be able to get the other two.
From the unofficial and official vote counts from the day we can see some movement from TyPrado to Balki. If anyone benefited the most from the lynch it was TyPrado as his wagon evaporated quickly once I moved which leads me to believe those on TyPrado would prefer a Balki lynch as opposed to TyPrado, asking why might be a good place to start.

@Espi ... mind linking your own spreadsheet? Also, mind attaching a screenshot showing the creation date?

@DL huh? That spreadsheet hasn't been updated in a long time, still lists my voting for bo when I did nothing of the sort, and I have been the one keeping an unofficial vote count posted, I never said anything about having edited your spreadsheet, although if you let me I can quickly update it correctly. I posted the link so that others could quickly see the spreadsheet, and because I keep forgetting where it was.

How is this a tell, and where the hell did this come from 13 minutes after you say you are bored? Are you really that bored?

I keep re-reading your post and going WTF.

@bo Lets assume I am town, what makes more sense. Trying to post an understanding of why I voted (which is lackluster at best and mostly based on feeling) or trying to see why others might have joined me in voting? I see focusing on myself when others can easily do that to be counterproductive, meanwhile I can pose questions at the others which help my understanding, and thus your understanding, of the events as they unfolded. Also I mentioned following guak in the vote, I only mentioned you since you were not with guak and I when we were pressuring Tr and joined for other reasons.

"I have been doing more of the logging then he has so far"

also, "Let's assume I am town"

"or trying to see why others might have joined me in voting?" Espi, this is pretty useless since it never happened. Your play was to follow others onto the votes you chose, not the other way around.

Just flipping through ND's analysis, you've got a lynch wrong - Jeff Kuta, the doctor, was lynched d1 M6, Vash I think was another candidate

@ND you and I both made arguments for not focusing on ourselves in the vote at about the same time, awkward. Also very nicely put together!

@DL Can you please remember to reference who you are quoting, and make more of a point with your quotes.

Notice ND posted 2 vote counts of mine, my page 11 summary was itself a vote count. You came whenever you made your count, had inaccuracies on it, have not since corrected it, and then are going after me with no evidence whatsoever aside from the fact that I quoted your link. Do better. How many updated to the vote count have I posted, and how much work have you done in the 2 days since you posted yours?

Do you want me to take over your spreadsheet and fix it for you?