Espi: Your trust of guak almost got one of your townreads (me) on the chopping block with you voting for me, and it also contributed to a towny getting lynched. How do you feel about guak in where it is leading you? Do you have an updated mindset on guak and how to approach making a vote?

bo: The following quote is from page 26: "Balki has looked good under pressure, which is something. I don't see any case for him besides the slip. @BB - have you read PE's how-to guide before?" The whole time he also was talking about how he would prefer an Espi lynch and was trying to get people on him.

What does he mean by looking good under pressure? He was under pressure and scumslipped. That was the case at that point. I shouldn't have logged off at that stage.

I think he means that he kept a level head and made sense of a lot of the stuff he was saying. But then, we could always ask DL.
DL: What did you mean when you said BB looks good under pressure?

He had kept a level head all day. That was fairly characteristic of his play. Obviously, I misread that as calculated, though I think it was to a degree.

Sorry, I've got a lot going on outside, and this thread is massive. (I still haven't read it all and now I've got to go back to the beginning. Again.) You guys, there's all this jargon and rules that you're passing off as law and fact and it's all really unprovable. It's just a hunch, I mean what do we really frackin know?? Do I know if guac is the mafia? Not really, I don't know. I'm going through this schtuff with a fine tooth comb right now. watch out.

TrPrado, I'm not entirely sure what you meant with me picking up wagons when they're on their way to a lynch. Yeah, I was the third to develop a case on Espi, but there was a reason I was still on him, my case was there to explain that.

So, if the Balki wagon was saving someone, who was being saved. guak, TrPrado and Espi were the main wagons that day. The Balki votes all happened in the space of 5 minutes, and I'd say TrPrado and Espi were under the most threat at that point. The wagon really took a lot of pressure off TrPrado, because guak was guaranteed to join the new wagon, and without guak pushing the TrPrado lynch, it was a lot less likely to happen - Espi was only on there because there were votes, Saladin was there to create a tie.

guak definitely provided the wagon, but I'd say ND was more responsible for making it happen. Espi pounced on the wagon, for absolutely no reason (sheeping is not a reason, it is an excuse, and a bad one at that). Or, at least, at the time, he was claiming to be sheeping, and later claimed he had thought Balki was scum. As for the rest, I'll have to look through ND and bo_sox, as well as Prado and guak.

And, of course, Lucland and americaslacker cannot be let off the hook for what they were doing. Both of you, could you please explain your day 1 actions?

I've gone back over the first 10 pages. I had no idea then, really. I'm not sure now, I've still got 20 pages to go back over, but my gut is telling me to look hard at epsi again, right. It just stuck but here's the evidence I pulled out on guak that made me suspicious. And mostly, I think it's because I don't know this guy, but some of you do. . .

GUAK:

*Guak: Alright things to know about this game:

1) yoyo is always scummy
2) I always lurk
3) phil is always wrong
4) Jeff Kuta has an annoying catchphrase
5) Voting No Lynch in the first day is scummy
6) I am bored which is why I am not yet lurking

Jeff: "1) yoyo is always scummy
2) I always lurk"

Yep. These two are true. And #2 is scummy. But guak isn't lurking yet, so I still feel comfortable with my bo vote. Speak up bo!

ND: @Jeff: I was going to mention that too. The fact that Guak is posting is odd at this early stage. Usually we don't see him until the final few hours of the phase.

TrPrado: ##VOTE guak
He seemed to be starting to make an actual contribution, but his vote on bo is somewhat disconcerting.

TrPrado: So guak comes in and talks at an above average rate, casts a joke vote, and then leaves once pressure is applied.

Guak: TrPrado is defending bo. Mental note taken

Guak: Also, what do you mean why I am voting bo? Because bo is bo. Do you really need a better reason to vote for bo? I would understand if it were any other player. But it's bo. I am sure ghug agrees with me here.

DL: Guak, if you're going to be around you might as well actually play the game - none of this bo non-contribution that essentially makes you the only remaining jokeposter

Guak: How could anyone trust anyone? Only people who could trust someone now are mafia and the cop. Other than that we should all be paranoid at this point

TrPrado: guak: There is the possibility of seeing that people are looking for scum, and that traits like that are more in the town's favor.

phil: guak always waits before doing anything. Usually he ramps up around day 3 or so, and is more active towards the ends of days. I'm not quite sure why, but that's his style, at the very least.

Jeff: guak, you were the one who followed me onto voting for bo, not the other way around.

TrPrado: guak: There is the possibility of seeing that people are looking for scum, and that traits like that are more in the town's favor.

Guak: You are saying I am joking. I am not. Right now my vote being on bo makes as much sense as on anyone else because none of us has a clue of what we are doing. Generating discussion is what is important. So, think whatever you want about my activity, but I know what I am doing.

TrPrado:
##unvote
guak: Thank you for explaining your position, but I must ask why you persist so heavily on bo.

Guak @TrPrado: because bo and I go a long way back. It is kind of like ghug voting uclabb D1 every single game.

TrPrado: 2. - guak - SLIGHT SLIGHT SCUM. Showed up and definitely has a presence, but that's based on just joking around, talking about how much we don't know, and endorsing a bo lynch. His follow on with Jeff is what really caught my eye. He also claims Jeff is buddying up to him, but I don't see Jeff seriously doing that.

SaladinSmith: Also, I haven't seen any other votes for Jeff. If I were mafia, I would pick someone who an innocent person had already voted for. Then my mafia buddies could back me up, hopefully with another innocent vote or two, and it would look like popular opinion.

DL: Guak, you aren't really contributing, and your explanation seemed kind of invalid considering that most people are just gathering info to use in cases later on.

So, if TrPrado is scum, bo and ND seem to make pretty good scumbuddies for him, based on the case above.

If Espi is scum, Yoyo and I'm reasonably fond of TrPrado to round out the team, possibly ND. I think Espi is not actually very good at this game, and he's been oddly supportive of Prado for quite some time. I'm not entirely sure he's committed enough to bus, but the speed at which he jumped off the moment there was another wagon available could be a bit telling. Yoyo and Espi have been linked more or less since the beginning, and I believe pretty strongly.

If neither is scum, then there are a couple ways to advance further. For one, if TrPrado isn't scum, guak starts to look worse, since it seems that usually when guak gets into a fight, it's mafia vs. town, whether guak is mafia or town.

Reads list, only 10 or so hours late

Espi - likely scum, I have explained why in the past, and very little has changed

guak - slight town, this isn't how I'd expect mafia guak to act

TrPrado - likely scum, there are definitely a few odd connections involving him

ND - slight scum, due to Balkiwagon stuff

bo_sox48 - as above, less likely as scum though

Yoyoyozo - probable buddy for Espi, outside likelihood for Prado

DeathLlama9 - likely town, apart from a couple bits earlier on, no reason to believe otherwise

americaslacker - I need more information

Jeff Kuta - it's a bit difficult to get a clear idea of what Jeff is, but I'm inclined towards town

SaladinSmith - attempt to tie is still scummy and wrong, and utterly avoided doing anything all of last phase, slight scum

Lucland - same as americaslacker

Ugh, why are there so many scum candidates?

@Phil: These are very light reads. Do you have any more analysis or is this all we can expect?

I did say I would be posting a reads post. Analysis has very little place in those. I put some amount of analysis in my two posts preceding the reads. I'll try to do more, and will take a close look in particular at TrPrado and/or Yoyo tonight.

I will not stop saying this, and it seems like I will have to for a while. Lucland and americaslacker need to explain their behavior, particularly when it comes to voting, on day 1.

Just imagine how embarassing it would be if they were both Mafia.

At the time that Balki posted his read on me, it was looking very much like I might be the day's lynch. It wasn't just "he liked me, so I like him" as guak suggests -- it's that any mafia member could say nothing and watch me die without facing any repercussions whatsoever.

Balki was set to kill Espi. Whether Espi is town or not, I think many of us agreed that we'd learn a lot from his death. He seemed an obvious target, and ND was voting against him as far back as page 14. Then suddenly, at the very end, ND picked a flimsy excuse to turn everyone against Balki -- everyone who was worried they might die themselves soon jumped on the bandwagon for self-preservation, and that was enough to kill Balki.

ND turned against Balki for what? For saying that he wanted to win favor with the town. Don't we all? Because if you don't have favor with the town, you end up like Espi -- or like Espi almost did, until ND decided that Espi dying was too dangerous. It's like lynching someone for saying that they don't want to be lynched.

Why was ND so desperate to change the lynch at the last minute? Well, I have two theories:
1. Espi is mafia and ND wanted to put up a front of opposing him, but when it came down to his partner actually being killed, ND had to change popular opinion and fast.
2. Espi is town, and ND was worried about all the people saying they'd learn a lot from Espi's death. Espi was deliberately baiting to get the mafia voting for him, and once he died, suspicion would fall on those who voted for him. Even before Balki's death, ND seemed suspicious for how vehemently he opposed Espi, when there was no evidence whatsoever against Espi. Now I think we're starting to see why.

@Bo, I was part of a lynch on an innocent man. No I am not going to try and distance myself from that. Part of it was me being clueless, part of it was me getting caught up in the moment, and part of it was my actually believing the arguments against him.

SS, does that mean you think there is, or is not, evidence against me?

Saladin, just out of curiosity, why do you think mafia want you specifically dead? If I were scum, I probably would have defended you, both because buddying works better on newbies, and because I would probably want you alive lategame.

Saladin, we shouldn't want to win favor with the town. There are multiple reasons. One is that it detracts from scumhunting, because cautious players aren't as creative in looking for scum. A more important reason is that if you're town, and you need to try to look town, you've already lost. If you're scumhunting only in order to look like town, as a townie, then it's hopeless. You'll never find anything useful unless you're actually trying to.

I find it odd that you're entirely ignoring TrPrado's wagon, because even if you subtract your vote, his wagon was just as strong as Espi's at that point. Admittedly, TrPrado could just switch to Espi and put him in the lead, but still, it was an active wagon.

When I looked back, I did see it as a minor possibility that ND was bussing Espi through day 1. It is mostly plausible, though the method is atypical at times. I have no real reservations about this argument.

The second is a bit more flimsy. When was ND on Espi's case without any evidence? Also, I have no clue who Espi was trying to bait, or why, and nor do you, I expect. I don't know if Espi does. He was definitely baiting to get people to vote for him, to scumread him, and then he would make his own conclusions. Conclusions that I would like to see at some point, so thanks for reminding me of that at least.

Espi, apologies if you've posted them already, but what are your interpretations of the wagon on you and the wagon on Balki?

phil: Are you going to ignore the fact that guak literally admitted to using the Balki wagon to save Espi?

@phil, tonight/tomorrow I will be spending a lot of time looking back on everyone's interactions with myself and with BB, I did him a disservice and I hope to make up for it, hopefully that analysis does a good job of redeeming myself.

The wagon was on Tr for the most part. On page 25 Tr asked me about why I was following guaks lead. I said "@Tr I think I know the strategy guak had, lurking in the background, trying not to attract a lot of attention and then when least expected, and near end game, coming out and shouting his suspicious of Tr. I think that was mostly a ploy though to get BB to panic and let slip a tell. Also, he seems very experienced and I don't want the town to lose potentially great people. I only had him as slight scum as others were questioning his not posting. One point against him now, he did come in only after he was in one of the lead wagons." which states my opinion on what guak was doing. He either was feeling the pressure and trying to get it off of him (making him Mafia), or was using a strategy in order to get pressure on BB from the beginning. I don't think his Tr argument had much merit, aside from gauging reactions toward it.

It began with Jeff already voting Tr, I joined in after guak to put the pressure on him and to see if following guak was a smart idea, SS joined in to make the vote into a tie (He still thinks I am innocent at this point but thinks there can be info gained from my death). Guak notices BB's comment (still not sure if there was merit, but a few of the more skilled people saw it) and hopped onto him. When that attempt failed he moved back to Tr to get him lynched. ND unvotes me just before guak switches, and when all things point toward me being lynched in the next hour. ND votes BB and within minutes guak and I both join in, bringing myself, guak and BB into a 3 way tie. The votes are guak are mostly from people who haven't been online and who have a lot of explaining to do, but not too many hopped on the guak wagon (thus making every other wagon more dangerous to be on). Within another few minutes of ND voting, bo joined in and BB's fate was sealed.

The wagon on me was mostly scumtell based on my either being a dumb town, or dumb mafia. There is a lot of reading going on others based on their relationship with me, which as I know I am town, worries me. I see merit to those cases, but I wonder why they are trying to get close to me if I am not Mafia.

From the start I had a feeling I would be an early lynch, I always seem to pick up suspicion early on anytime I play a game like this, so I began by posting that I was a Town and wanted anyone looking back on this to know that. Some people began reading me as scum after this, and I was still not too worried. Then I began to get a lot of pressure and kept pointing out things I could do to dodge the vote and make the day into a no-lynch. Tr brought this up when I was the Lynch target. I was just getting into the frame of mind that I would be Lynched and was beginning to accept then, when I cracked and saw an opportunity to go after 2 of the people I have worried about, while also surviving. Sadly I took it.

The question is, if I am not Mafia, is there merit in what ND, bo and guak saw?

@Lucland your post is just quotes and doesn't really mention what you thought about guak, also be careful when quoting votes, you might want to type (redacted) or [redacted] where the vote is so you don't accidentally change your vote. Also, are you really busy in RL or something? You appear then disappear, saying you will answer questions and do other stuff but you never really do. You and slacker are 2 people I wish we could have killed yesterday, if only to begin work on those actually around to question.

TrPrado, yes I am, because what guak was out to do is largely irrelevant. The lynch was made by ND. Sure, guak was very vocal about Balki, but the important push was done by ND. I don't know who ND wanted to save, so I'm considering both Espi and you as potential scum.

@phil, you have been thinking that I have been scum for a very long time, and have not changed your view. In your mind, what would my having been lynched yesterday serve to show you? Does my being lynched tonight provide more, or less information?

I'll have to see how everyone acts during the night. I'm still waiting on responses from slacker and Lucland, for one. Also, we'll see if there are better targets, ones that haven't been pressured, available tomorrow. I still think it's reasonably likely you're scum, and finding out if you are would inform a lot of my other reads, but I'm not entirely sure whether you're worth spending the time on. We'll see during the day phase.

@phil good to know. Right now I am almost in favor of policy killing Lucland and slacker, there is a good chance they are both Scum who have been trying to stay unseen, or they are new and very busy right now. Both are suspicious and were I not more in favor of trying to go after the big wigs, I would want to kill them. They, more than I, are taking effort away from the hunt as we can never fully get it off our minds that they could be scum. Please tell me if I am wrong on this.

phil: I understand ND's role in the BB lynch, but you also say bo's contribution makes him somewhat scummy. In fact, the only person on that wagon you didn't read as scum was guak. Why are you so confident that he's town when bo's lesser role on the wagon got him a scum read? And can you explain how you would expect a scum guak to act?

D1 Official Final Vote Count
_______________________
Balki Bartokomous (4): guak, ND, Espi, Bo_sox48
Espi (3): phil_a_s, Balki Bartokomous, DeathLlama9
guak (3): Lucland, americaslacker, Trprado
TrPrado (2): Jeff Kuta, SaladinSmith

No Vote: Yoyoyozo

Looking over that, Yoyo claims he pulled his vote off as things had changed a lot since he was last on and he didn't want his old vote to be counted. The Espi votes all have legitimate reads on me, and have held them throughout. 2 of the guak votes have barely posted and only 1 has a legitimate claim, backed by a reason. The Tr votes would only include Jeff as SS tried to switch last minute, due to his thinking I am the better person to be lynched, but that would have ended in a day 1 no lynch which worries me. I have already discussed the BB votes.

SS, what made you so eager to try and change your vote into a No Lynch yesterday

guak's contribution to the lynch doesn't seem as scummy to me because it's a lot more common for mafia to jump onto someone else's starting wagon than to create their own, since they have a guaranteed supporter, and someone to blame. Also, did I ever say I was confident that he's town? I just think that's more likely at the moment. I don't think lynching town is scummy, I just found parts of the wagon a bit odd.

The most critical points on during yesterday's vote were on p23-24.

guak was on the TrPrado wagon, then he tried to test the waters vs Balki.
Saladin joined the TrPrado wagon. Llama unvoted. Balki re-voted. Llama voted Espi. ND unvoted Espi.

Then guak rejoined the TrPrado wagon, which put us at 4 against TrPrado setting him up for the lynch ever so briefly over Espi and guak each at 3.

ND then jumpstarted the Balki wagon. Then, in rapid succession, guak left TrPrado, Espi left TrPrado, and bo added his unvote to take down Balki at 4.

Yoyo's friend Espi was now safe, so he unvoted and we had a few tense moments where no one changed for fear of tying the tally.

Then after D1 ended, Llama voted Balki and SS voted Espi.

From a town standpoint, Llama's vote made sense leaving Espi and cementing a lynch, but SS's move to Espi makes no sense.

The fact that both Espi and guak *left* the TrPrado wagon seems significant to me, but I can't figure out why it bothers me. I guess Balki's false scumslip was a more solid reason to justify a lynch. Something doesn't sit right, but I can't figure it out.

@Jeff, sorry I keep forgetting that yes, DL moved his vote from me to BB last moment, just before SS voted for me, both right at 6 and too late to be counted.

DL also was very specific in saying BB didn't deserve to be lynched when he was sadly too late in his vote for it to count.

Also, pay very special attention Jeff that I was very quick in following guak onto both Tr and BB. I took a few minutes after his Tr vote, but I did mention switching to bring pressure onto Tr, and then tried to convince others to join me. SS did join me later after to even things out, but even though he thought guak, Tr and I were all innocent, he only switched to Tr after my work on him. He always mentioned wanting to vote me as although he was very sure I was innocent, he felt it would gain info.

Guys, unless Yoyo is faking the stomach flu just to get out of EOD, those aren't his true intentions

Espi: So you voted to put pressure on me because of a case you admit to thinking has no merit?