The cop is best off now. He knows that he and 1 other town are town, hopefully the town was not bb because if not he knows 3 innocents, and can scan for another tonight. After tonight there will be 3 mafia and 8 town. If we lynch a town tomorrow, there will only be 6 town and 3 mafia. If the cop reveals then, and doesnt scan those that get nigh5 killed, we could still win. Killa mafia in day 3 lynch, end up with 5 town and 2 mafia, kill another mafia so 4 town 1 mafia and boom.

I would think that if the cop knew BB was innocent he would had defended him hard

Lucland and slacker: I hope to hear cases and reads from both of you before the night phase ends.

bo: Your vote on BB was very abrupt. Had you read the reasonings why BB thought it wasn't alignment indicative or DL's reasons for why BB was a bad lynch? If so, what led you to believe they were wrong?

SS: You seemed very set on the idea of BB being town. And yet voting for anyone else was a "random" vote unless it saved BB. Why were you so determined he was town and yet confused about everyone else?

guak: Given the connections you and Espi have displayed toward each other, do you not now think that Espi would have provided information that could have at least helped get you off the chopping block a bit? Or that a lynch of yourself could go similarly for him, who is one of your town reads?

So a town fake claims tomorrow, mafia kills him just in case, then the cop knows 7 innocent people, 4 people are dead and we pretty much win by default.

@Tr: I do not think that, I would had been accused of buddying up. I think Espi's lynch would had yielded nothing of interest. I also think that a lynch of me tells nothing about Espi. I liked the lynch of me because it said a lot about you Tr.

Wtf are you talking about Espi? You are not making any sense

Espi: You make it sound really easy. Why are you so confident it would work that way?

DL: At some point you switched to Espi and said that you were starting to doubt the guak wagon a little. Can you elaborate on that a bit more?

DL: I apologize. You went from guak to Lucland to unvote, and then you were starting to doubt the guak wagon a bit. But still, the question stands.

phil: I've looked back at the past few pages and realized you've been flying very under the radar. Your posts are more based on giving advice and picking out the minor details you think are a bit scummy, and not really picking up a vote choice until it's on its way to becoming a wagon. Can you explain your behavior a bit? And if you were to give reads now that we've got a lynch done, what would that look like?

1 (Cop) - Innocent
2 (Cop Innocent Read) - Innocent
3 (Balki, Day 1 Lynch) Innocent
4 (Night 1 Cop Read) Innocent/Mafia
5 (Night 1 Kill) Innocent (2 Town killed by now)
6 (Day 2 Lynch) Innocent
7 (Night 2 Cop Read) Innocent/Mafia
8 (Night 2 Kill) Innocent (4 Town killed by now)
9 (Day 3 Lynch) Innocent
10 (Night 3 Cop Read/ Night 3 Kill) Innocent/Mafia (Possibly 6 Town killed by now but we should know the most likely mafia)
11 Mafia
12 Mafia
13 Mafia

We know that there are 10 Town and 3 Mafia. So far the cop knows 3 Town and the rest of us Town know 2 Town, ourself and BB. As long as the cop reads someone that the Mafia doesn't kill tonight, by tomorrow he will know 5 innocent, hopefully 3 of them living and 2 dead. That narrows down our search. As long as we can begin to find out who the mafia are, and as long as the majority of us still living Day 3 are those the cop has scanned, it becomes much easier to pick out the Mafia and kill them. As long as the people that the Cop knows are innocent are those that survive, we can win.

Am I missing something in that?

If we only lynch innocent the first 3 days, we will only have 4 town vs 3 mafia, but by then we should know who each of the mafia are. Day 4 we lynch a mafia, so 4 town vs 2 mafia, night 4 they kill an inno, day 5 we 3 town lynch the next mafia, night 5 he kills a town and then 2 town vs 1 mafia, we win.

It can't be that simple though, can it? This banks on the cop not getting killed before he can reveal on day 3, and him reading those that the mafia don't happen to kill.

The odds that the cop picks three people who aren't going to die and for some reason they're all innocent, knowing that there's a pool of eleven - 5/11 * 4/10 * 3/9, or 2/33.

@Tr - Guak had commenced the actual doing of things, and when the main pillar of your argument kind of collapses it's not going to be that strong.

@Yoyo - are you good to go health-wise?

Lets assume though that we Lynch a Mafia on either day 2 or 3, and/or the cop scans a mafia on night 2 or 3, our odds go up tremendously after that,

@DL I believe your math is off. Odds are actually a bit higher, but still very small

Just kidding, even worse odds (three deaths + three mafia of the pool of ten (assuming Balki wasn't innocent) means it's 2/5 * 1/3 * 1/8, or an astoundingly large 1/60)

Wait, never mind I'm thinking of the odds of getting to d3 with all working innoscans. I believe he wanted to go further

So, tonight for the scan the cop has 11 people he could scan, 1 of them is someone he already knows is innocent and 3 of them are mafia. He has a 9/11 chance of scanning someone the mafia don't kill, correct? Night 3 there are 8 people he could scan, 2 of them (if both scans live) he knows are innocent (if both are innocent so he has a 5/8 chance. Night 4, 6 people live, 3 he knows are innocent (or mafia) so doesn't that make it a 2/6 chance he doesn't kill the same person the mafia pick? This assuming he only scans innocents, and those innocents don't get killed.

I likely did my math wrong above.

Am I going in the right direction with our chances though?

9/11 chance <- forgot to include mafia

9/11 chance of not picking the same person that the mafia picks. so 7/11 chance of not picking mafia then 3/8 chance on night 3?

I mean, if they scan mafia things are a bit different

This really isn't necessary, though. It's useful to discuss when cop should out, though -

1.) When about to be lynched
2.) After 2 or 3 nights with useful scans, 2 if mafia scan and 3 for inno scans

Discuss pls

3.) End-of-night-3 (or 4 if they have a lot of dead scans)

It really depends on how long they think they could last.

I agree with the 3 scenerios DL.

Don't let this really poor start set us back (I hope it at least gave us information - Balki was the biggest townread of everyone and he shouldn't have been lynched based on a questionably (now obviously not) sound slip). I feel like it is setting us back, because nobody even has comments on the d1 lynch. I'll type some up when I have the time.

please tell me we did not lynch, Balki!!! Seriously??

@Lucland, you have a lot of questions to answer.

Yes we did, it was a very last hour thing.

@DL I don't think a read right now will do a lot. It is good to post them in the next 24 hours, but the main new clue we will get will be after the Mafia kill tonight, which might easily nullify some reads.

I'll post up some new reads before EON.

DL: I had a little bit of something on page 29. A big comment is about how guak used the wagon to avoid an Espi lynch and Espi voted because of his "trust" of guak and ND.