Bump

I’ve missed quite a bit of commentary, so let me do a quick post to catch up on what I missed before commenting on the most recent.

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First, 1901 builds. Tom’s post from when the turn processed was good and I don’t have major disagreements. The one observation that I want to make is that how well you do in a builds phase depends a lot on not just your own build being tactically wise, but on your opponents’ builds being in your favour.

Some very good examples of this here: (1) England’s position was amazing because no one else in the north built fleets, and France’s position against Germany is magnified by England building A Lon (committing to the assault on Germany and ensuring France that the English Channel probably remains empty); (2) Russia building in Moscow does a very good job of putting Austria in the driver seat in the east, and at this stage makes me very pessimistic of Turkey’s chances (I am writing this without having taken a close look at the turns that processed after builds). After these builds, I rate England pretty highly, I am optimistic about Italy and Austria’s chances, and I think France, Russia, and Turkey have some options to build on but significant challenges. And if I were Germany, I’d be very worried.

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Moving to Spring 1902. What does it look like is happening here?

On the face of it, England has enlisted Russia to help against the war with Germany, which is risky and sort of a weird choice. It shows a lot of confidence in Russia’s future intentions, so maybe we’ll come back to this move later.

Also, the downside of France’s opening is starting to become apparent. His movements against Germany are not going to yield swift progress, so while he’s in no danger, he is lagging behind his English ally and Italy is proving to be a real (smart) thorn in his side. Looking further east, Austria’s move to Bohemia is hilarious and amazing and I have to wonder if the idea didn’t come from Italy the way he’s been playing. Of course, it would be a huge coup for France if he’s convinced Austria to abandon Germany and Italy, so I guess we’ll see next turn.

I won’t grade every move, but if I had to do a rough ranking of everyone’s position so far, I would probably go something like Italy, England, Austria, France, Russia, Turkey, and then Germany (these are not rankings for this turn, but for the game as a whole).

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And the real action happens in Fall 1902, it turns out! The most exciting turn yet, so I’m glad I’m getting my post in before builds. I’ll start from West to East and give out some grades for moves this turn.

ENGLAND: B-
So, look, getting Denmark and a build is nice, but the (likely friendly) attack on Norway and the somewhat more vulnerable position in the north is basically 100% self-inflicted. I feel like England has gone from having a power position to just being in a pretty good place. As England, I’m always ecstatic when Germany is in Sweden, because it means Germany’s units are further from his home centers. I’m also ecstatic about owning Norway when different players own Sweden and StP, because they usually can’t agree on who should get Norway if anyone attacks it. In the long term, this may end up being okay for England. But I am concerned - Germany popped France’s army, and Italy has forced France to turn their attention away from Germany. A careful look at Russia’s orders suggest that the StP-Norway move was just a precaution on Russia, probably something he even told England he was doing, so no huge concern there, just a problem down the road that didn’t exist before this turn. It’s not clear that Russia will lose whatever conflict he is in the midst of it in the east, and if he doesn’t, it’s hard to see that peace between England and Russia is sustainable.

France: B-
Good call realizing that Italy is your enemy. That’s long overdue, and makes a lot of sense given what’s happened in the four turns this game. Italy’s moves and diplomacy are the biggest reason France is not further ahead. Tactically, I don’t know if the moves France has made this turn are necessarily the strongest for yielding success against Italy, but they’re not bad. Losing Ruhr to Germany is a big loss, however, since it probably means it will be hard for France to be anything but neutral in the conflict between England and Germany. Also, I think Germany’s move against Ruhr was fairly predictable, and the loss of Ruhr with nothing to show for it is a big tactical failure. That is the main reason this grade isn’t higher. It was also certainly a mistake last turn to prioritize Piedmont over Burgundy, and I’d have written more about that move specifically if I weren’t behind on commentary. Being in Burgundy a turn earlier could have saved Ruhr - but then, maybe what France wanted (and needed) was an excuse to abandon the attack on Germany. If so, I would probably adjust this grade higher.

GERMANY: B+
Best turn for Germany all game. Germany has achieved three major strategic/tactical objectives this turn: (1) Stunting France’s attack by popping the army in Ruhr, (2) seemingly getting Russia to make a hostile move against England, and (3) enlisting Italy to help pull France away even moreso. In this turn, Germany has gone from seemingly being attacked by 3 or 4 players, to possibly having something like 1.5 enemies and some bargaining power. Losing Sweden, if that was a part of the bargain, is totally worth this payoff. I sure hope the press between England, Germany, and Russia is extremely active right now. These three players have no shortage of discussions to have this turn. And even though I’m giving Germany a B+ for rescuing a bad position and becoming a major factor in this game, I would still caution that Germany is at a disadvantage relative to England and needs a couple more turns like this before he can be happy with his position.

Italy: A-
I really like Italy’s play so far, and that’s because it looks like Italy has strengthened their relative position by using diplomacy really well. In the long term, it’s very bad for Italy if France and England quickly defeat Germany, because that would likely mean he’d be well behind another power which has had the opportunity to build a lot of fleets before Italy finds a path to growth. Pulling France off Germany is great play in that respect, and it comes at basically no cost because the attack on Turkey is still proceeding reasonably well. The only thing you could have done better would have been getting into Tyr Sea without France being alerted to the move. While I think developments are unfolding well for Italy, my earlier note of caution remains: it is hard to see where Italy’s growth is going to come from.

Austria: B+
Everything here is very reasonable. But Russia (predictably) getting a build makes Silesia not super useful unless Russia can be talked into not building in Warsaw, and it should have been pretty clear going into this turn that Bulgaria was not going to fall. I'd be interested in some more tactical analysis of these moves; my first instinct is that this turn is a lot more effective for Austria if we change Serbia's order and send it to Greece, and change Bohemia's order and send it to Galicia. Still, no traction for Turkey, and no cooperation with Russia but still Russia and Turkey are fighting. Good things for Austria.

Russia: B+
Like Germany, I think Russia got a lot of things they really needed this turn. The build from Sweden, seemingly good relations with England and little to fear from Germany, are all to see. What’s puzzling is Russia’s relationship with Austria. Bohemia to Silesia is hard to read as anything but anti-Austria, and Russia didn’t use Rumania to help Austria, but also took a risk in leaving Rumania vulnerable to Austria this turn. And at the same time, Russia moved to Armenia. I worry it is not tenable for Russia to remain sort of hostile to Austria while also fighting Turkey.

Turkey: C+
I think Turkey really needed to shake things up this turn, and unfortunately did not. Russia’s move to Armenia and the loss of the Aegean Sea suggest that Turkey’s diplomacy isn’t getting traction behind the scenes. Turkey needs to work hard now. The best thing going for Turkey is still that there’s no cooperation whatsoever between Austria and Russia. The only way out of this is to find a way to use that.

Bump

Sorry for the delay everyone, but I’ve posted my grades below. They include the last turns movements, as well as the build choices (which certainly cast some light on why some movements occurred.)

ENG: C+

First off, it’s hard to give someone this low a grade when they are tied with the leaders with 6 units, particularly when it is a corner power that is usually difficult to invade. However, I feel similarly to Stackel when he points out that ENG could have positioned himself more strongly as a 6 center power. Looking at the board now, he is at the mercy of too many people – which is ok, but only so long as your diplomacy keeps you afloat. RUS has two units threatening Norway. GER has two units threatening Denmark, and France has built a fleet in Brest. Looking at the rest of the board, the two biggest positives for you are the French convoy into NaF and the RUS move to Armenia. The move to Armenia and subsequent build certainly shows that RUS is making an effort in the South. This is a good thing for ENG as RUS likely doesn’t want too much trouble in the north too, but having two units on Norway is always a tough spot as a fall stab is always possible. The French army move is interesting, but does not outweight the burden of France being allowed to build a fleet in Brest. If anything, ENG should have convinced FRA to not bounce in Pie, leaving Mar open for a fleet build. This is a failure on ENG’s part that leaves him a bit vulnerable to a FRA/GER attack if they decide to do so. ENG has much to offer FRA still, but needs to keep his communication up. His path to 18 still looks strong.

FRA: D+

I don’t particularly care for the convoy to NaF as I don’t see how that will be useful. Your fleets are too out of position to make much of an attack on Italy without help from the other side, and it doesn’t look like TUR is going to be able to help. The continued bounce in Pie has destroyed any potential to expand for you in the med, while your disband of Ruhr has made chances of gains in GER small as well. Even if you continue to work with ENG against GER, it will be imperative that you make gains as well, as it looks like GER is in a position to make sure ENG takes the centers and not you. The fleet in Brest gives you some options, but taking on a 6 center ENG is a tall task, especially one who you have been an ally with all game. When I look at the board, I have a hard time seeing you get to 18 on the current path, which means you need to start to find a way to shift things in your favor.

GER: A

I thought this was a great turn for GER – and I’ll give him credit even if some of it was coincidence. The Italian move and French move in the med mark a potential conflict there. Plus with the disband of Ruhr, FRA has lost all momentum with his armies. Losing a center is never a good thing, but that fleet was a good unit to keep as it keeps you important in Scandinavia, which is promising considering the potential tension between RUS and ENG. There may come a time where they seek you aid, and you could use a friend right now. I can’t comment on your path to 18, but I will say that I feel like you have made your units relevant, which is a good thing to staying off the menu!

ITA: B-

Another ho hum turn for ITA – which is a blessing and a curse. First, the bounce again in Pie is another win for you as FRA cannot build a fleet there and instead must build in Brest. The convoy to NaF is worrisome, but considering your position, FRA can’t do anything in terms of damage to you – particularly in light of your move to TyS, which was a good decision. The problem though, is you are going to have trouble finding a way to expand without some help. Going towards TUR is an issue because AUS and RUS could shut you out of gains there considering how slow it is to get your units there (and how out of position you become). Going this route you need to be sure that you will gain something out of Turkey AND be able to hold that gain. On the flip side, a move west is likely to be a slog unless you get help from ENG and/or GER. And that risk is similar in that you need to be sure to get something out of it as well. In either case, I would like to see a more assertive ITA come through in the next few turns, as patience and defense can only last so long.

AUS: C

I feel like AUS is being held up by his tactics. Overall, I think he has positioned himself in a good spot, with routes for expansion and nobody heading his way. He seemingly has a friendly ITA and RUS, and TUR is not in a position to do much harm. Yet the tactics fail again here as he has wasted units. Hindsight is of course always 20/20, but Serbia and Trieste not moving is a failure. Either this was a bad decision or you were misled by RUS (I can see a scenario where you were expecting Rum to support you and SEv to cut support from Black Sea). In any case, moving Serbia to Greece and Trieste to Serbia would have put you in a much better spot considering what RUS chose to do. And you and RUS should have had this conversation to put you in a better position against a tough country to crack in TUR.

TUR: C

Tactics were fine in terms of movement, but obviously now you need to find a way to stay alive. The fleet build by RUS is particularly troubling as it puts you in a very tough spot. They key for you now is to stay relevant. You can make it hard for one or the other to gain centers, and you need to start helping one of these powers stab the other. And you should be having these conversations now. Concede a center or two to convince the other to make a stab. Use your units exclusively to help that power and remain relevant. Playing defense won’t get you very far at this point, so you need to play offense with one of your attackers. See gameID=191866 for an example. I was forced to work something out with RUS, and do as he asked to help him advance to a solo position. Eventually I was able to work my way into a draw by continually staying relevant.

RUS: A

I think this is another great turn for RUS. The situation in the south looks good as you have an immediate route for expansion so long as you get minimal help from AUS (and it is a situation where you both stand to gain). Whether you used misdirection or just silence, AUS’s lack of movement to Greece and Serbia slows him down a bunch, which gives you the upperhand in getting the bigger piece of the pie in TUR. They key for you in the south is to make sure you get a couple of centers, but be wary of where AUS may head next. Once AUS is rolling, it is tough to deal with, and he’s got to go somewhere next. The situation in the north is also solid for you, but you need to make sure you can hold onto it. Working with ENG or GER could have benefits, but they key is that they don’t work together against you. This is another situation where passive play and indecision would betray you. Better to be aggressive and pick a side, so that they don’t find the space to befriend each other!

bump

So many stabs happening. I think I only see one alliance currently set up?

Will get to full grades this evening. There are a hell of a lot of red lines on that board. Seems like distrust is high!

Spring 1903 Grades:

England: A-

I like this turn quite a bit from England because he is dictating play. There seemed to be a situation where something had to give in the western triangle, and its better to push the action than wait for it to be pushed onto you. Deciding to go with GER for the near future was a great decision considering the path it can help you achieve south, and having an ally in the north allows you to pick up centers in Scandinavia. The worry here is that while GER’s fleet in Baltic helps solidify your gains in Scandinavia, it eventually could be a problem for you in terms of vulnerability. Regardless, long term I believe you have set yourself up well in terms of a path to 18. And having an ally in GER without(!) a fleet threatening North is a great spot to be. The absolute mess in the east only further increases your prospects as you made gains this turn while virtually every other country (besides GER) did very little. Your path to 18 seems to be in great shape. The only thing bringing this grade down a touch is the move to Wales – I feel like a move to London would have been much stronger as it leaves you with more options. Even if you have a very strong idea of that unit’s purpose, its best to leave some mystery to the rest of the board to keep them honest.

Germany: A

Another great turn from the German as he has positioned himself back into a place of relevance, and in this case has strong prospects of expansion – something that looked tough just a year ago. The decision to work with ENG and cede Sweden is a strong one, as ENG is the ally that can help you grow. You had a decision to make between trying to swing France towards ENG, help RUS against ENG, or side with ENG. The decision you made was a good one as ENG has much to offer in terms of letting you grow. Being on the offensive is a good place to be, but you have to be somewhat concerned at how vulnerable you continue to be. You’ve done well to keep AUS from getting frisky, and 2 English fleets in Scandinavia is going to be a concern down the road, but right now it is ok to look at the short term of getting your footing. The key here is to concentrate on making sure you pick up centers out of this. You need to be clear with your allies (ENG or whomever) that you both need to grow to make this work. Now is not the time to be cautious, and so long as you continue to be helpful, you can latch on to a stronger powers coattails until you can get your footing. It is a delicate balance however, as you must continually prove that you are more beneficial for the long term to keep them from taking the short term gain of your unprotected centers. You seem to have done a good job thus far, so keep doing what you are doing. Your path to 18 is limited, but in much better shape than it was just a turn ago.

France: D

I don’t really know what France was trying to achieve here, but it did not work. From the looks of his orders, he may have been expecting German help into Belgium, but if that was the case, he should have sent MAO south. Fighting ITA and ENG is a recipe for disaster as France. If he thought an English stab may happen, it would have been much more prudent to use Burgundy to go to Picardy, and Brest to English channel – but obviously hindsight is 20/20. Things are not so dire for France just yet though, as he is a tough shell to crack. He has the immediate fleet advantage against ENG in terms of positioning and won’t lose a center this year. The key now is to make peace with Italy or England as he doesn’t have the fleet power to protect against both. Losing Burgundy is a problem, but the armies will move slowly into France, so it gives him time to test his diplomatic chops. France has the option of trying to swing England back onto his side, or trying to swing GER/RUS against ENG. If ENG is not able to build a unit this build phase, France’s fleets in Brest and MAO could be an issue for England – so France is not in terrible shape just yet. That being said, the road to 18 look quite troublesome for France.

Italy: C-

None of your units achieved anything this phase. This is not good, even for a power that can afford some patience. I don’t know how much to read into the attempted convoy into Greece, but it was odd. Had the move succeeded, and even been supported by AUS, I would have given you higher marks, but as it stands, you have a useless army in Tunis, and limited expansion potential. It looks like you expected to have Greece per a deal with AUS, so I’m interested to see if this was a minor hiccup in the relationship or something bigger brewing. You are at a bit of a crossroads because France and Turkey are both in trouble and they are your best bets at expansion and you are not ready to take advantage. I don’t know how you are going to pick up centers unless you quickly get in a better position to do so. On the bright side, you still have control of the Med – but if you are stuck with 4 centers for the rest of the game, you will eventually lose that superiority. You are not in a terrible spot, but your expansion prospects are dwindling, and you are not in a position to be useful to anyone currently, giving you little leverage to negotiate. You need to assert yourself a bit more and make sure you are getting something out of this – because right now you are stuck with a brutal path to 18.

Austria: B-

I’m concerned with where you are at. Your path to 18 remains in good shape, and you have positioned yourself to make gains this turn. That being said, it looks like you made a couple enemies out of RUS and potentially Italy to do so. I think this turn for you will be one of the pivotal moments in your game as it can go very well if you play it well. I don’t know what happened in Greece, but you shouldn’t anger Italy without having a good reason to do so. You are still only a 5 power country surrounded by neighbors. You will likely have suitors this phase and a lot of people talking to you. Things look a bit murky here so it is hard to comment, but I grow concerned when it looks like TUR and ITA were expecting Greece, and you made moves against RUS (who was helping you into Bulgaria). It seems like you’ve done something to damage every relationship around you, which your diplomatic skill can fix, but it’s a bold move that requires quite a bit of confidence in your ability with words. I would have liked to see a more direct approach against someone, even if it meant conceding Greece to do so. The way you have done it opens up the board to rally against you. You have to give to get, so just be sure you have a friend or two this year and lock up a couple of gains. Don’t forget that people expect something in return, and leaving them out in the cold may come back to bite you.

Turkey: B

Well, you didn’t lose Bulgaria this turn which is a good thing, and AUS looks to be making a play on RUS so you may be safe for a bit. There isn’t an Italian fleet in East Med, which is another win. You are still in a massive amount of danger this turn, but things could have gone much worse. I can’t wrap my head around the Greece situation, but an Italian army there would have been worrisome. I don’t think your situation is all bad as you have positioned yourself to be useful to many people. Italy could be convinced to stab AUS. RUS is likely looking for help against an AUS who likely lied to him. AUS is likely looking for help to put him over the edge against RUS. It seems like a win-win for you and someone to work together here, but you need to be sure that any deal involves them getting out from threatening your home centers. The best thing about TUR is that one power can’t defeat you alone – and this is true here. So long as you don’t have RUS and AUS cooperating, you can muster a great defense. You just need to pick the power who can offer you the most, and who best gives you a route of expansion – whether it is through the Med, the Balkans, or north. The nice thing is that while you are pinned down, TUR's path to 18 is rarely closed off, and that is true here.

Russia: D

Oooof. Not a stellar year for you as things went poorly on all fronts. The loss in Sweden hurts and unfortunately there isn’t much you can do about it. I think this is mostly a product of sending two units north and not having clear direction on what to do with them. You were helping ENG, but once ENG was in Denmark, you had almost nothing in terms of leverage. You couldn’t help ENG very much, and had two units threatening Norway. It was too good a swipe for England to pass up. This is why I think the support into Denmark was poor, as you gained little from that maneuver. In the south, it simply shows how one move can alter the whole turn. Had Austria followed through and taken your support into Bulgaria, you would be in good shape in the South as it would have been a crippling blow to Turkey. You would have set yourself up with a center in Ankara, and worked out a split with AUS. Something obviously fell through however, and now you are in a bad spot. Luckily the unit in Smyrna is a fleet, so Turkey isn’t totally equipped to defend against you, but you need help and quickly. Keep talking to your neighbors, as they are likely ready to listen – but remember that you need to give and take in a relationship too, and you are in a position where you need to trust somebody – RUS is not an easy power to defend and things can crumble quickly. No reason to be passive now – reach out to someone with something bold and clear. If any one of you takes something from all this dribble I type it should be that PLAYERS CRAVE DIRECTION.

Hey, this is a fun turn! Let me see what I can say about it.

Before I get to the turn, a quick note on builds. England’s build was a strong hint that there were problems to come for France, whatever diplomacy underlied it. I would speculate that France’s obvious intent/need to build F Bre motivated England to build F Lon, and this source of tension either escalated into conflict, or the opportunity to stab that followed was just too tempting.

On the Russian build, I am going to start by noting that a lot of players on this site would probably offer a lot of caution against ever building F Sev, especially in the early game. Russia’s territory is hard to defend, and Russia’s neighbours often have a lot of armies. My philosophy as Russia tends to be to build armies, or build fleets in StP, but not fleets in Sev. There are three main principles here: 1) you need armies to defend your territory and most of your expansion is through armies, 2) a fleet in StP can go to a lot of useful places and tends to be necessary to get past the stalemate line, and 3) a fleet in Sev will usually just get bottled up in Turkey and make it harder to defend your territory. So I wouldn’t have gone with this build unless I was extremely confident in an alliance with Austria, and there’s nothing on the board before this build phase to have given Russia that confidence.

Moving on to grades for this turn! I’ll start with the east to mix things up.

Turkey: B
I mean, sure. Turkey is stuck and has like a million enemies. What else is there to do? I still can’t help but think there are some really unfortunate failures of diplomacy happening here. The triple bounce in Greece and the failed support order from Rumania are all just really bad signs.

Russia: C
I don’t understand what Russia’s goals were this turn. Given Rumania’s order, it seems like Black Sea is not meant to attack Turkey, but then there was really no reason to build it. And now Russia has 2 units which are not useful for expanding, as far as I can see, because they’re behind the lines of his only plausible ally, and no shortage of enemies on every other spot in the map. That fleet build didn’t leave Russia with very much bargaining power or ability to offer anything to anyone, so maybe this is more of a grade for that build than this turn. Every message Russia could have sent this turn and every move Russia could have made would have been much more effective if an army had been sitting in Mos or War.

Austria: A
Finally, Austria moved to Galicia! Considering that it seemed like an alliance between Russia and Austria was never going to happen, and that leaving Greece empty has completely stunted the assault on Austria, going hard against Russia really was the most viable option. Russia’s fleet build, I think, just made that too tempting to resist. If this was done in coordination with England, it’s even better. My going concern for the next for Austria is figuring out exactly what it will take to keep Italy on-side.

Italy: C+
I am going to assume Austria asked for the bounce in Greece, and that neither Italy nor Austria knew what Turkey would do (although the risk that Italy would move to Greece was surely high on everyone’s mind). So why the low grade? Well, Italy has 4 units. Two of them were used to help Austria, his ally, and two of them were used to just hold his ground against France. I’ve liked Italy’s play so far but I’ve always said he runs the risk of being stuck without room to grow, and that risk has never been more acute than this turn.

Germany: B+
When you’re on the defensive and it looks like you might be out for the count, a good move to make can often be to play favourable for the stronger the players attacking you. It looks like that’s what Germany did here. England’s position remained stronger than France for a while due to a good opening, although England was never able to fully capitalize on it. Germany seems to have bet the farm on England being interested in a true power position in the west, which is what an alliance with Germany gets him now. This turn leaves Germany is a fairly vulnerable position, and it’s difficult to see how to turn this position into growth, but it’s possible no one is attacking Germany anymore. That’s a big win.

England: A
A lot of risky but tactically sound moves this turn, and the result is a power position in the west, probably one build if you can keep Germany on side, and an ally who badly needs England. Basically, everything is coming up England. And a good correction of the error in the north, which just had to be too tempting to resist after Russia basically disarmed himself with the F Sev build.

France: C-
The low grade is because this turn is a failure of diplomacy, not bad moves. Assuming that France is going to be sieged on all sides, there are good moves. But that’s an unfortunate assumption to make, and making it can only mean that diplomacy has failed visibly and badly. Even if only the attacks from England and Italy were predicted, it’s hard to see how the moves could have been better. The game is about more than just your moves, though. And I’d add the even though the moves this turn were okay from a tactical perspective, the reason they add up to a bad position is because of poor choices earlier and bad diplomacy right now.

France requested a pause. The game will continue Monday evening.

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Unpaused!

Bump

Ooh. Some interesting developments this turn. I'll get to my commentary shortly.

Indeed! Odd moves from Germany, good stab by Italy. Quite a board-changing turn.

Ok. So I am interested to hear what people think about how the Italian move shapes the board. My grades will reflect this to a certain degree, but this decision by Italy has a far reaching impact on the game, and I would suggest each player re-evaluate the path to 18 they had set because of how this will impact the next few years.

Italy: A

I’d be hard pressed to find a reason not to give you an A grade here. There does exist a school of thought that says Italy stabbing AUS relatively early is a poor play for Italy because while it may increase the likelihood of Italy having success early, it actually decreases the chances of an Italian solo because it becomes more difficult to get to 18. I personally think that is nonsense, and is more a product of many Italian’s stabbing AUS ineffectively – often too early where AUS can galvanize support from a neighbor, or even retake Italian gains independently. In this case, I think the stab was strong. You get two builds. You are likely to be able to hold your gains. AUS is way out of position to defend with units in Warsaw and Silesia. France has no fleets threatening you. Turkey likewise has no fleets in the Med. It cannot be overstated how important it was for you to take Greece with an army, as a fleet there would not help in the Balkans, and you were able to find utility for an army that was useless in Tunis. Your western border seems secure, and you just need to make sure the remnants of TUR/AUS/RUS don’t galvanize against you – though if you play it right, you have much to offer, so it shouldn’t be difficult to keep one on your side.

Austria: D

This turn was a failure of turns past, not a product of what happened between your communications this turn. As AUS it is difficult to expect Italy to stay patient for so long, and it would have been much better to keep him occupied either by successfully coordinating a Lepanto, or making it worthwhile for him to move West. Italy has a hard time finding a way to expand, and your failures to make ground against TUR together in 1902 and 1903 made this stab a growing inevitability. To me, the failure was on the strategic side more than anything. Nothing about your tactics was incorrect, and while I can’t read your press I don’t think it was to blame. The failure was your decision to move on RUS while allied with ITA. Relationships in Dip rely on give and take. I don’t mind an AUS working with TUR – but you need to have the situation resolved with ITA because it will leave you exposed. It is difficult because you have such little to offer ITA in this relationship. The reason a Lepanto works is because Italy can see herself picking up Turkish centers out of the relationship (even if it sometimes is an illusion). The reason Italy stabbed here is because you have nothing to give. Working with you had no upside because Italy can’t gain RUS centers no matter how much he likes you. Certainly there was a degree of diplomatic failure as TUR helped ITA instead of you – but the main issue was not looking at the board from Italy’s perspective. Italy was trapped and had nowhere to expand except through you. All is not lost though – you can certainly right the ship. But remember that you need to think about your opponents intentions as well. Think about how your decisions impact their potential to grow – you need to make them feel like they have a way to expand too.

Turkey: B

Turkey is the hardest person to grade this turn, because most of what I would grade on is not apparent from the move set. Obviously Turkey was not in a great spot last turn, and decided that the best course of action would be to help Italy make the stab on AUS. I can see the merits of this, but I also think it could blow up in his face – it just depends on how he plays it. Helping Italy grow large is a scary prospect for TUR because it essentially gives up the prospect of southern expansion through the Med. Normally I would consider this a bad play, but here I think it was strong. RUS was knocking on the door so instead of helping AUS into Rum (Again, AUS needs to evaluate what TUR would have gained from this), TUR helps Italy take an Austrian center. RUS keeps TUR and AUS loses a center – two things that could gain TUR some major points with the Russian – very important considering RUS is being forced to disband two units. I think we need to wait and see what the builds look like to properly evaluate what TUR’s prospects look like following this turn – but for now, I’ll give it a B.

RUS: B

You lost two centers this year (though only one for this turn), but you still get a B, so good work! Losing Warsaw was almost a certainty this year as the only thing that could have saved it was a Munich move to Sil which seemed incredibly unlikely no matter how charming you are. The move in the North was predictable but solid which buys you a little bit more time to figure out a way to keep ENG from sending units your way in the north. The move to GoB is not good on the surface as the only real purpose behind a move there is to threaten St. Pet, but I like to look at it like an optimist: you have more ammo to persuade ENG to move on GER as it’s just another unit that is out of position. St. Pet was doomed either way, so the move to GoB shouldn’t be viewed too negatively. The move by Italy is what earns you higher marks this turn even if you had nothing to do with it. A few things happened here that help you: 1) The Balkans are in chaos, and ITA and TUR in particular will look to gain centers there instead of at you, 2) AUS which was in a position of power against you is crippled. 3) AUS will be desperate moving forward and desperate powers can be unpredictable. In your case unpredictable is good because you need a bit of chaos to get back in this. Think hard about your builds because they can very much influence what directions you are able to go in the spring.

GER: D

I really don’t like the move to GoB. There is no upside, even if the idea is ENG supporting you into St. Pet. That unit is out of position, and can’t be held easily even if it makes it into St. Pet. I imagine looking at the board that the idea was actually to have you take Belgium with Holland, and then support Norway into St. Pet – this would have been great, but it was too obviously going to be blocked. It was really the only move RUS was going to make with that fleet in Ska, so instead of picking up a center in Belgium, you are out of position with a very limited scope on how to expand. With regards to the stab by Italy, besides AUS this hurts you more than any other country by far. The immediate problem is instead of a seemingly friendly AUS in Sil, you’ve now got a desperate AUS there. You do no want desperate units neighboring your home centes. AUS will be fighting to stay relevant and the way to stay relevant is to listen to offers on who needs your help – this is not good for you, and you’ll want to get ahead of this and find a way to make sure AUS doesn’t head your way. On the other end, France and Italy have completed deescalated the conflict in the Med, allowing France to get into a very strong defensive position. You need to swing things your way because right now, France looks like a hard nut to crack – and you are out of position with that fleet in GoB.

France: A

A great turn for France, and the small gamble of leaving Paris open pays off. You are not out of the woods as eventually your line of defense can be broken down, but boy will it be a slog now – you’ve bought yourself a lot of time to point people in directions that aren’t facing you. They key here was making peace with Italy, as the move into the Med was not yielding any results. The convoy back into Gascony was necessary, and really solidifies your defense. A fleet build in LvP could eventually wear you down, so I’d be working like hell to convince ENG to build elsewhere, but even if that is the case, you’ve bought yourself time. And time is essential because who knows what the board will look like in a couple of turns, and you may have an easy opportunity to get ENG off your back. The key here is to play defense with your units, and offense with your words. Now is not the time to think about where you are going to get builds. It is the time to help ENG think about where HE is going to get builds
and how you can help him achieve those builds.

England: C+

You units did nothing. This is never a great outcome, though in your shoes it certainly isn’t a bad thing. I don’t know if you anticipated the move to Norway failing, but it certainly played out in your favor as you get the build instead of Germany. The Italian stab has good and bad ramifications for you. The bad is that France suddenly become much harder to invade, and while it can be done, it will take a lengthy process. The good is that you have a couple of rogue AUS units that can help you go through GER or through the north if you wish. On the surface it may seem apparent that a move into GER is the correct play, but I always caution against going the path of least resistance as its not always the best, particularly if you want to solo instead of draw. You are in a great position because you have options on where to go, and hold a corner position. When thinking about what direction to take, I would advise thinking about the 18. Always come back to that. You’ve solidified your strong position. Thinking about how to pick up the next couple of centers, you will position yourself to a 3 or 4 way draw. If you think about how to pick up your 18th center, you will greatly improve your chances of soloing.

Great post from Tom! +1, particularly for the comments on Italy

I’d also add that the timing of this stab is good because the north is not going swimmingly for Russia. This means that if Russia wants to be a major power in the game, he’ll need to get growth from somewhere. It coming from Turkey and Austria is more attractive than it coming from just Austria. This means that Russia is slightly incentivised to work with Italy over Turkey- and in turn, means that Italy is less likely to be rolled by a juggernaut (which is often the result when the stab is mistimed).

What’s happening in the north isn’t the only factor that makes a stab of Austria effective, but it’s a good example of the kind of strategic factors that are important in a well timed stab.

It’s also a good example of how growth for other players helps you- if you’re Austria, in general you want Russia to be putting down northern fleets and doing well in Scandinavia. This is because it gives Russia growth that isn’t coming from Austrian centres (or from centres that Austria is likely to compete for), and it structures the Russian position so that it is easier for him to work with you than against you.

bump

A big, board-changing turn last fall. I didn’t get online in time for builds so I’ll cover the turn and builds in this post. Let’s start in the west.


ENGLAND: C
The problem with the about-face in the previous turn is that, while gaining some new direction, England also had to deal with the consequences of Russia’s retreat, which persist now after builds. But it was costly to defend Norway using 3 units, and as a result it’s going to take time to build momentum and make any progress against France. England also faces the same challenge Austria faced earlier this game: a strong position that relies on the patience of a less powerful ally. What will it take to keep Germany on board? (The fleet build probably helps!)

France: A-
Great tactical defense and good positioning for what’s coming and, I assume, there must have also been some good work behind the scenes talking to Italy. France’s biggest asset now is that it will be hard to attack him and make a lot of progress quickly. The question going forward is how to turn that asset into a real diplomatic or tactical advantage. France can keep making the best available moves and guessing right a lot of the time, but if England is able to keep Germany on his side, that will only delay defeat.

Germany: B-
As a whole, this year was pretty good, but Germany didn’t really get anywhere this turn. Like Tom, I don’t understand the move to GoB, either. Taking StP from GoB is not ideal, if that’s the plan, because the south coast fleet hits a dead end in StP, and it ties down that fleet for a long time.

ITALY: A
At the end of last turn, I wrote that for Austria, the biggest going concern would be finding a way to keep Italy on board and patient, because the path they were on made it difficult for Italy to grow. I also graded Italy down because I was worried he was going to get stuck. This turn has basically born out both of those concerns and solved Italy’s problems for the foreseeable future. This is a particularly great stab because a lot of the usual reasons Italy shouldn’t attack Austria early in the game don’t apply.

AUSTRIA: D
Ouch. When I play Austria and ally with Italy, and the alliance does not move to either a traditional lepanto where Italy is trying to convoy into Turkey, or one where Italy has partners in the west to attack France and actively engages early, I get worried and watch my back. I also make an effort to be generous to Italy and encourage fleet builds. The reason is that, if France and Turkey aren’t imminent source of builds for Italy, and Italy is falling behind Austria, the stab becomes almost the only option. So it is a failure of diplomacy and planning by Austria to prevent this.

RUSSIA: C+
Russia’s moves last turn were okay, given where things stood. However, I am very concerned about this disband. Russia needs armies, especially when Russia has foreign armies in his territory. SKA is also a tricky fleet to keep around, because SKA is one of those fleets that tends to get dislodged and have nowhere to retreat with. I can’t help but think this is a repeat of an earlier year, where Russia built a southern fleet and left himself too vulnerable in his main territory. I have a hard time seeing how the direction suggested by this disband will succeed.

TURKEY: A-
Turkey’s position is odd. Most movesets would give Turkey the same outcome in terms of SC count and even where Turkey's units go, so more than anything else, I have to grade Turkey on an attempt to read between the lines from his neighbour’s moves. The support to Bulgaria and the Rumania disband suggest that, although Turkey is stuck in a corner, he doesn’t have too many enemies anymore. That’s a fantastic place to be as Turkey.

Some clever moves this year. I'll post my grades in the morning.

So first of all I want to thank ATC for his post because I think it has been one of the most insightful ones in the thread so far. That is the time of mindset and thinking a top player like ATC has when looking at the board and deciding to stab. There is so much more to a stab than yourself and the country you are stabbing. Too many times I see a player make a stab where their ally left themselves open, but the stab was not thought through. Novice players stab when they see open centers they can take. Good players make sure they have talked to another power so that when the stab occurs they have a new ally. Great players (like ATC) make sure that when they stab the board is shaped in such a way that its only logical for other players to help you complete the stab – and when its not logical for countries to galvanize against your growth. In this case, as ATC pointed out, it would be difficult for RUS to side with TUR, when ITA can offer more to RUS down the line. It was a great move by Italy.

But on to this year’s grades:

TUR: A

So you seem to be working with Italy! How fun as it is the alliance I see the least in Diplomacy. I’m interested to see how long it can last as tension is always rampant between ITA and TUR, especially once they share a border. The first major victory you had was RUS’s disbands. The fact that he gave up two southern units opens up a route of expansion for you that is much easier than battling ITA in the med. A major win for you. Your second victory was getting support into Serbia – though the real test will be to make sure you can hold it and capture the build. This is really important because it signals you getting out from being stuck in the corner of the board. The Balkans are incredibly dense right now (literally every Balkan region is occupied), so there will be confusion – but the fact that you have two armies there gives you much more influence on how things play out. Finally, ITA moving to WesMed may be the biggest victory of all, because he voluntarily put himself one move farther away from attacking you. A move from Tunis to TyS (or Tunis hold) would have raised red flags for me as he would have been just one turn away from having fleets in Ionian and East Med. Technically its still possible because of the fleet in Albania, but the fact that ITA moved a fleet in such a way that probably created a lot of tension with France is a good sign for your long term potential. Your path to 18 still looks strong.

RUS: D

These disband choices here were a critical error in my opinion. The disband in Armenia was fine, but the disband in Rum was an error. The fleet is Ska should have been disbanded – and I honestly don’t think there is even an argument to make on this point, but I’m open to hearing one if people think otherwise. Having armies in Gal and Rum would have given you direct influence on the outcome in the Balkans which are a mess. Those units could influence ITA, TUR and AUS. Your unit in Ska can literally only impact ENG, and he has such an advantage on you in the north that it actually cannot impact much of anything. Your fleet in Ska has no use in the fall turn, which could have been predicted. Luckily the Balkans are still a mess, so you need to make sure your army and fleet have an outcome. You need to become useful, and in a hurry. Your path to 18 is extremely uphill – you should be playing to be relevant in a draw.

AUS: C-

So I feel like there is some good and bad in terms of your decisions this turn. I think the move to Rum was a good one because Serbia was pretty stuck and you were unlikely to be able to hold onto it this turn. RUS gave you an opening to flee to and stay alive, and that is what you did. Right now, you need to weather the storm until you can become useful again – and that may be sooner rather than later considering the tension that an ITA/TUR alliance brings. I think the move to Gal was a poor one however as it didn’t achieve much and put you in a position of less influence. To me, you had options that were better for those units in Warsaw and Silesia and it required you to read into the disbands. To me, the choice by RUS to not disband Ska meant he was not giving up on Scandinavia. This points to the fact that St. Pet would likely make another play in Scandinavia (which it did) meaning Moscow would be open (which it was). I see no real reason you wouldn’t take that opening considering RUS can offer you next to nothing in the South. So a move to Moscow would have been strong considering you would have been guaranteed to hold it. Silesia could have still moved to Gal to cut any support RUS gave, ensuring that you capture Rum as well. I like the idea of taking the opening that RUS gave you, but the lack of a move to Moscow was a big mistake. Your path to 18 is nearly impossible when you lose home centers – but you can fight for a draw.

ITA: A

More good stuff from you. You are in the drivers seat in the Balkans, and understand the give and take nature of making an alliance succeed. Helping TUR out of his corner is risky to a certain degree, but I think it was very much the correct play, especially considering RUS abandoned the South with his disband of Rum. You and TUR are poised to capture all of the gains in the Balkans, and your fleet presence gives you that little bit of edge that you need to make sure you are slightly ahead of him in terms of board position. All of your units have great utilty – Tyr has an enormous amount of influence. You have units in the Balkans and complete control of the Med. If you can manage a build this year, you will be in sole possession of the driver’s seat of the board. In particular I love the move to Wes Med as it opens up a great option to expand without committing many units. It is not often you have a lone fleet with so much influence, but with GER parked in Bur (which has been and will continue to be great for you), you can make that move to WesMed with not much to worry about. Your path to 18 looks great.

GER: A

I thought this was a good turn from you, and makes your previous turn look much better. Considering the fact that RUS did not disband Ska like I would have anticipated, your fleet actually became useful in cutting support for St. Pet, and will be useful again the fall. While it is out of position defensively, you had a good turn in terms of taking off some heat which makes me feel much better about your prospects. First of all, getting a desperate AUS away from your home centers allows you a sigh of relief. He seems to be throwing everything east – and with a weak RUS AND AUS, your eastern border looks pretty secure for the time being. I assume there is a trade-off going on where you will support ENG to St. Pet in exchange for Holland. If that is the case, its another great win for you as it allows you to pick up a center and get a build. Burgundy is a great power position against France which gives you leverage (in particular with ENG, who I imagine is willing to keep working with you so long as you keep the pressure on France). And with ITA moving to WesMed, you have a France that is committed to the North and has to worry about the South. You seemingly have no immediate enemies right now, and probably many folks wanting to befriend you. The key here is for you to make sure that you make gains out of whatever relationship you choose is best.

FRA: C

I can’t believe the move to Holland didn’t work! But in all seriousness, I don’t think this was a great year from you, not necessarily because of your tactics, but because the board is moving against you. The move by Italy really hurts as you can’t afford to lose a center in the south, but you are spread too thin to defend against all sides. I don’t mind the move to take the Channel, but I would have liked to see a Gas/Pic bounce in Paris again from you, as keeping the army in Picardy allows you the option to threaten to convoy onto the English mainland. Without that option, the fleet in the channel is not particularly useful. Your big task this year is to swing one of ENG or GER to your side, while finding a way to appease ITA so that he backs off. The first task is doable, as you do have much to offer either ENG or GER in swinging to the other side. The second will require some out of the box thinking from you, but can be done. Your path to 18 looks quite limited considering the strong ITA and ENG boxing you in, so you need to start pointing at least one of them in a different direction.

ENG: A

I thought this was a great turn for you, and while you have some risk, the payoff could potentially be great in terms of setting you up for a solo run. First of all, I like the fleet movement quite a bit to Irish and NAO. Giving up the Channel is not a huge deal, especially since France cannot convoy an army there. You’ve got two units against the Channel and MAO which means France has to guess how to defend using his two fleets. The move to London also gives you great options as it can stay put to protect against a French move to London, or you can risk convoying it elsewhere. And if you can manage getting GER support into St. Pet the game really opens up for you as getting an ARMY in St. Pet as ENG is crucial to solo potential. With the unit in Denmark you have some leverage against GER – and giving him Holland is a great tradeoff if it means you can an avenue to push armies through northern RUS. The only slight fear I have for you is that you are sending units north into RUS, as well as seemingly pushing south into France. You just need to make sure you don’t spread yourself too thin. Your path to 18 looks strong.

Let’s see what I can say about this turn. I’ll start with the west once more.

England: A
A couple great things here. First, the fleet movements are lining up well to make progress on France in the long term; tactically, to beat France, you have to take MAO so that really looks very good. Second, it looks like the plan is not to do anything quite so foolish as to put a German fleet in StP, although that is still a little up in the air - but this next turn could be very good for England’s solo potential (not to get anyone too excited; England is still far from going to solo, but he will be one of the only players on the board that has a clear path after this turn). Third, Italy’s move to West Med makes France’s defense much, much harder; all the better if Italy will support one of your moves, but even if Italy just tries to take Spain, that’s still good for England. And fourth, letting Germany take Belgium is a great idea. There is something in it for him right away and, on top of that, it allows for a more effective advance against Russia. This is basically avoiding one of Austria’s mistakes in not giving Italy enough of a reason to maintain their alliance. The moves this turn are a clear signal to Germany that he will be able to get to a strong position soon with your help.

France: C
Taking the channel was smart, but I don’t see why you took it from MAO and not Brest. Your defensive line against England is much stronger if you’re in ENG and MAO than BRE and MAO. And as much as I like England’s moves, note that if England hadn’t moved to IRI, he would have just retreated there this turn, and you can see that still means two English fleets bordering MAO no matter what so supporting the move to the Channel was questionable tactically. And I agree with Tom - bouncing in Paris would have been way better than the move that occurred, because bouncing in Paris would give England reason to be worried about either a convoy onto the island or an attack on Belgium. As it stands, England has nothing to worry about. France needs to get a lot more creative tactically if he’s going to make it out of this.

Germany: A
I don’t have too much to say here - getting Belgium in the handoff is great and only makes sense, and it looks like you did a good job of maintaining relationships with both England and Austria this turn, so that’s a win. Great year and not much to worry about. In the long term, I am curious to see if Germany will be able to turn a position that looks like it is headed to being a middle power mid-game into one where this is a potential to solo. Positions like that are often great spring boards with just one or two very good turns to kick them off.

Italy: A
Lots of high grades here, maybe I’m getting soft! But I really like everything Italy did this turn. Consolidating his units around Austria only makes sense, and moving to West Med to hasten France’s demise only heightens the extent to which Italy is now the power player on this part of the map. The support to Serbia is also great; there is absolutely no reason for Turkey not to work with Italy for now, and Italy is extremely safe from Turkish intransigence, at least for the moment. So hastening the demise of potentially both Austria and Russia gives these two a lot of gains to divide up, which can help in keeping together an alliance known for its tensions. I do think Italy should be concerned about giving England too much help, though, but that’s a tricky balancing act. Too little help and France could be a threat to Italy later; too much, or too generous, assistance, and suddenly England can give Italy every problem France could have. The way this turn went, there is a very funny possibility approaching that both Italy and Austria attack Vienna with one support, resulting in Russia taking the centre from Austria.

Austria: B
I don’t have too much to say. Austria faces every challenge France does, which is that he has enemies on all sides and has not been able to find a reason for his neighbours to want his help, but they are heightened because Austria is just more vulnerable than France and Italy’s stabbed was very effectively timed. Taking Galicia makes sense, leaving Serbia makes sense, and it seems like a sure thing that you’ll be on the board in some interesting pressure points next year. Can you turn them into a chance to play on?

Russia: C-
I think I said what I would have wanted to say last turn. Disbanding Rumania was the huge mistake; it made it extremely hard to either defend or be useful to Austria or Turkey. If you’re Russia, you really do need armies when you’re small. Keeping Ska to spite England was tempting, I understand, but it may well be the ultimate reason you don’t make it out of this fight. As for the moves this turn, abstracting from the build, they’re okay. Black Sea and Galicia were not going to get anywhere if neither Austria nor Turkey helped you, and their help was, I think, much harder to get after the Rumania disband. On top of that, defending this next turn is a maddening guessing game, since all of your remaining centres are either empty or have a lone unit in them. Godspeed.

Turkey: A
Maybe I’m doing this wrong if 4 out of 7 of my grades are in the A range, I don’t know. But anyway, this is awesome and the potential that you’ve unlocked this turn makes me feel very justified in doling out an A- last turn, too. Turkey is out of the corner, Turkey can probably get a build this year, and Turkey’s enemies are small, disorganized, and fighting each other. I have some thoughts about how to make this rarest of alliances last, but I will hold my thoughts for next turn.

And there we are! I see that I’m again close to the deadline so I’ll try to have next turn’s post up tomorrow night to get ahead of things a bit.

I'm very interested to see what Italy does with the fleet in Wes Med. He could either try to pick off a French center and work with E/G and try to make gains, or he could help France defend - meaning progress would be slow for ENG. I could see arguments for both sides here.

Bump

Will hopefully get to commentary tonight.

Bump

Bump

Bump to get turkey excited.

Sorry y’all - won’t get to post until this evening or first thing tomorrow. Traveling today for the Holiday. But I’ll get to it, I promise.