Since I missed so much and since we're so far in, we're not doing grades now and instead just some general thoughts.
GERMANY: I am very curious what you're going to do here, since you seem to have such a vendetta for Russia.
RUSSIA: I didn't think moving on Turkey was a good idea, but it is being done in a good way.
ITALY: When I left you were on track for a solo!
FRANCE: You've done quite well since I left. If I were giving grades, you'd be at A or A-.
TURKEY: Sorry to see you go.
In re: bo sox, let's also think about solos. When you get right down to it, solos are simply arithmetic. Octavious made a joke about it, but it's really as simple as that: can you get to 18 centers? Italy's misorder really makes things different here from how I saw it pre-Christmas. I don't think there's going to be a French solo, still, but I think the chances of an Italian solo have become much lower. France probably is closer to a solo than is Italy, but just as the Italian misorder changed things, so too could a French error reverse the odds. We're very close!
There are several stalemate lines in Diplomacy, lines where it is impossible to make any gains no matter how much you outnumber or outsmart the other side as long as they enter the same set of hold orders. The most famous line runs a 17-center division from Tunis to Warsaw to Moscow. If Turkey and France are so inclined, they can both (probably, almost) set up a stalemate line on the southwestern end in this game right now, although doing so immediately could put France into a difficult position for future builds. France is extremely lucky thanks to the Italian misorder and then just a bad decision with the Piedmont bounce in the most recent turn.
In a game like this, a solo race between Italy and France where neither Italy nor France have made major gains beyond their side of Iberia, the competition for a solo is going to be in the former home centers of Germany and Russia. One very important facet about the big stalemate line is that St P cannot, in the long run, be held from the south. There's only two provinces touching it, so the four hostile provinces can always force it if sufficient units exist. I don't like how France is handling this aspect of the solo push, because that fact means there's no hurry to take St P. It will always be there. Warsaw and Moscow are a different story. France's move to Finland means Germany is sort of pinned down, but Germany could also concede St P in order to take Sev and set up an unbreakable line. France, to get a solo, is going to need their current 15 centers (if we include Berlin), plus three other centers--maybe Munich, St P, and something else. But what will that 18th center be? Breaking into Austrian centers will be very difficult; it's hard to get past Tyrolia and Bohemia from Munich and Silesia. France is likely not making gains in the Med (although France can't ignore it, since it's possible that without good play, France can lose position in the southwest).
In terms of an ideal set of moves: If Germany and Italy set up a line hold Warsaw and Moscow but not holding onto Munich, that puts France at a frustrating 17 centers (assuming no losses around Spain). However, this leads to other big issue with solos: personalities. It's pretty unusual to get a solo without some sort of error or suboptimal play on the other side. Will Germany freak out that Italy is going to try to eliminate him and make a mistake or intentionally throw centers? Will Germany, who has seem disengaged before, miss out on important discussions and thus lead to miscommunication? Will Italy or Germany assume they know better than the other, and just tell them what to do, and cause a fight? Can Italy manage the conflict between Russia and Germany--is that done, will Russia make problems in fear of being eliminated, something else? Will France's inability to cultivate minor powers as allies cost them a solo?
The short answer to bo sox's request, then: I see the most likely outcome as a medium-sized draw, France at 16 or 17 vs a 14 or 15 center Italy and a tiny Germany/maybe Russia. For France to get to a solo, they will have to create and exploit divisions/errors in the Italy/Germany(/Russia?) alliance. For Italy to solo, they will have to exploit small misorders by France all across the board to get to crucial centers before France does (the relatively easy part) but also so manage Germany/Russia as to be in position to take their centers in such a way that neither can throw to France.