bump

Hi, reminder that I need that pause today. I might get internet tomorrow night (or something, timezones y'know) but just to be safe we should pause until the 6th - as I requested. Sorry to inconvenience all of you.

Build commentary 03 - I touched on this some above, but for clarity I'll post in a bit more detail below.

Austria, Germany, Italy, Turkey - No builds

England - you have to disband 3 units and that is always going to be painful. Furthe compounding things is that you basically have 3 pairs of units right now so there isn't even a 3 unit cluster you can keep around. The closest you have to a cluster is Hel+Den+Nor, but Nor is surrounded by 3 Russian units and Den is surrounded by 2 German units. No matter what you disband this turn you are almost certainly going to lose 2 of your centers and possibly all 3. I think best you can hope for is to try to gain 1 while losing 2 for net just -1 and even that will be difficult. If you were in Nth then I would be tempted to keep the two home armies and F Nth, but with France already in control of Nth and with 2 other units on your home isle it is hard to see much point in trying to hold Lon. Barents is probably less useful than any of the other units since Russia already has 3 vs. 2 in the Nor-StP area, but a case could be made to keep Bar and disband Hel instead. Whatever you do there is a good chance we see a dislodged unit with nowhere to retreat in the spring.

France - 2 builds coming. All 3 home centers are open so you have 5 builds to choose from. Really a case could be made for any of them. You probably want at least one fleet but you could go Bre to continue to move North or Mar to start engaging Italy while he is locked up with Turkey. An army in Par or Mar (or even Bre though the other spots are more useful) could be used against Germany or Italy or convoyed North in a turn or two. Really no bad option here.

Russia - 1 build coming. Options War, Mos, Sev and Sev could be fleet or army. Your decision is a lot more critical than France's since it likely commits you to your next course of actionor at least has limited effectiveness for certain options. If you want to add to your large Northern force then Army Mos or War makes the most sense. If you want to move on Turkey while he is engaged with Austria and Italy then Sev makes the most sense (army or fleet would be useful). Want to try to get a third unit into the mix vs Austria? Then A War or A Sev most useful for that. Want to try to help Turkey survive Italy's attack? F Sev can do that, though Turkey may be more concerned that you are coming to get him than coming to help him with that one. Also make sure you are giving consideration to your medium and long range goals with this build. With England severely weakened and France very strong you need to consider whether Germany will need your help or maybe be a vulnerable target. Similarly if you expect France to move on Italy soon then that will change the dynamic in the southeast and may present an opportunity for you.

Bump

Good now. Thanks all.

Unpaused.

Bump for moves.

I'll post later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Spring 04 comments - In general, a good turn for France, Russia, and Italy, not so good for Austria and Germany, and outlook is bleak for Turkey and England.

Austria - Trading Ser for Bud is decent as it also helps hold Gre if Turkey uses Ser as support (which he did). Also it is nice to get into Ser to work with Gre potentially. Your Vie-Boh did not pan out, presumably you were expecting Gal-Boh and War-Gal from Russia. But since that didn't happen you are a bit out of position for the fall. Italian army in Alb might be bad news for you too. Could be worse I guess, Turkey could have ordered Ser-Gre with support from Bul.

England - Was about all you could try this turn and if Germany hadn't supported Fin-Swe you would at least be in Swe with an outside shot at holding it. But instead you are about to be a 1-center power for next year. Not much hope of a comeback in this one. No retreat option for your army.

France - Strong moves, you should pick up 2 builds this year, an outside shot at 3 if England decides to punish Germany for the Ska move. You are well positioned entering the mid-game and should be thinking about your path to 18 centers.

Germany - As reward for Ska supporting Fin-Swe Russia gives you ... War-Sil. Between losing Bel and the Russian army in Sil this turn probably went a little differently than you were expecting/hoping. This will be an important turn for you as it is critical to limit the losses to just one center this year. Hopefully for you Sil is going to Boh and not after your centers. Only retreat option is to Ruhr (or disband).

Italy - Solid moves, convoy to Albania gives you some options for the coming turn if you decide to turn on Austria. Make sure you are watching the whole board though. Is this a good time to initiate a conflict with Austria? You'll need to weigh whether getting tied up with Austria will make you a tempting target for a growing France and also whether the bigger beneficiary of conflict with Austria will be you or Russia.

Russia - Good moves, though I would probably have tried to take Nor from StP with support from Nwg instead of the other way around since that would free up StP as a place to build a Fleet. The German support of Fin-Swe was a nice bonus for you eliminating the English Army in Nor and saving you the trouble of having to use two units to hold Swe this turn. Sil is a nice place for your army, gives you options for the fall. You were the beneficiary of Austria's decision to trade Bud for Ser, though Turkey will have Rum as his retreat option.

Turkey - The attack on Gre not successful the way you tried it. Not too surprised that Austria hit Ser in an attempt to cut potential support of an attack on Gre. Only retreat option for Ser is Rum. Probably won't do wonders for your relationship with Russia, but he can't fault you too much for taking your only retreat option. Your best chance at this point is if Austria and Italy start fighting again, but that doesn't seem too likely.

Bump for fall moves.

Fall 04 commentary

Austria - Italy did decide to stab you as it turns out, which is bad for you and may ultimately be bad for him with strong France and Turkey still sitting there with 4 units. Russia now has 3 units bordering Vie and Turkey has 2 bordering Ser. Italy took Gre from you but moved away from Ven though he may build there. You are now in a tough spot and could really use a friend. Try to come up with moves that at least keep you at 3 in the coming year and hope that someone else's situation changes enough to change your current dynamic. No builds, no disbands.

England - down to your final center and it will be tough to keep that or grab a different one in the coming year, though Bal probably has a slightly better chance of doing so than Hel. Only thing that may work in your favor is that Russia, Germany, and France all have units adjacent to Den, so maybe you can facilitate a bounce of some sort which allows you to hold it. Even so your long term chances are about nil as your home centers are all occupied so even if you grabbed a second center you wouldn't be able to build anyway. You'll have to disband one of the fleets. Bal seems more useful in general to keep, though if you just want to attack France out of spite then Hel is the better choice. Hel could be used against Germany too, but Bal seems more useful in that regard.

France - you have 2 builds coming and solid positioning. Minor concerns at this point are growing Russia which could slow your expansion into Germany and especially Scandinavia and also Italy moved to Pie, though he doesn't have anything close by to use with that yet. You'll have to decide whether to respond to the army in Pie by fully engaging Italy or simply building a defensive unit and continuing to focus on northern expansion. With the bulk of Italy's forces committed in the east and with him in conflict with Austria and Turkey currently he may have just brought a knife to a gun fight, but will engaging fully with him leave you strong enough against Germany and Russia to continue to make gains in the north? That is what you will need to figure out and build accordingly.

Germany - The bad news is France is putting a ton of heat on you. The really bad news is you need to disband a unit this turn, which likely means saying goodbye to your chances for taking Den assuming Ska is the disband. The only good news is that Russia moved away from you (Sil-Boh) and seems inclined to try to halt France rather than attack you in the coming turns based on opening up StP (presumably to build a fleet in NC).

Italy - Short run analysis - great moves, you get a build. Medium-long term, not nearly as excited about these moves. Go after Austria for the build OR move to Pie to provoke France, but to do both while still tied up with Turkey seems a bit over ambitious. In particular the move to Pie seems like you may get everything you asked for and then some. Stay in Ven or move to Tyr there and France is probably content to leave you alone for now and continue to focus up north. But now you are almost forcing him to respond and most of your units are over by Turkey and in the Balkans. We'll see how this plays out, but sometimes a short term gain is a long term loss (I think we covered that early in this game as well). All that said, you do get a build which probably needs to be in Ven since you just attacked Austria, though you also could use another fleet if France decides to come after you for moving to Pie.

Russia - solid turn, you continue to grow and you have positioned yourself well against Austria and not bitten off too much by trying to also fight Germany right now. The Turkish retreat to Rum cost you your second build so now you need to decide whether to build a Fleet in StP to hold off France or an army in War or Sev to throw into the southern front. I do like the StP to Mos move last turn, great for multiple reasons - opened up StP for potential build and it provides cover/defense of Sev in case Turkey decides to go there from Rum.

Turkey - retreat to Rum left you even this turn and you did get the Italian attack on Austria which may help you get back into the mix in this one if you take advantage. Best thing that can happen for you now is if France comes after Italy in response to the move to Pie. You'll need to decide whether it is better to try to go after Ser while Austria is weak and tied up with Russia or if you are better off trying to help him and hoping he returns the favor by supporting you against Italy. Though really it is hard to see a scenario where Ser is available to support you rather than trying to hold off Russia. No builds, no disbands.

Rankings by tier
Legit solo threat - France
Strong second, should be part of any eventual draw if no solo - Russia
Ascending, but will this be short-lived and a repeat of England from earlier in this game? - Italy
Okay for now, but circumstances need to improve for long term success - Turkey, Germany, Austria
On the verge of extinction - England

Some brief build 04 commentary.

Austria - n/a

England - kept Bal, got rid of Hel, seems like best option as Bal gives you a little more flexibility. Either way an uphill climb to keep a center this year.

France - 2 fleets. F Mar a good response to Italy's move to Pie and F Bre has option of moving north or MaO, WMed/NAfr. No army build might slow down your conquest of Germany a little, though he disbanded Hol to keep Ska, so maybe not.

Germany - Interesting decision to keep Ska over Hol. You can maybe take Den this year but to do so you probably lose Hol so not sure that is in your best interest.

Italy - F Nap has option of going either way but with France building fleets in Mar and Bre no one will be surprised to see it move to Tyrr Sea.

Russia - F StP pretty much as expected. With all the French fleets probably could use another fleet up north even after this one.

Turkey - n/a

bump for spring moves.

Spring 05 comments

Austria - you were in a tough spot, surrounded and with no real allies. I might have gone for the supported attack on Bud from either Ser or Vie since you knew those would both basically get hit and Tri would not, but no guarantee that would have worked either (if Russia had used Gal to hold Bud for example). As it is you may be able to take Ven this fall but will have a tough time holding Tri unless Russia decides to use Bud in an effort to take back Rum.

England - things look pretty bleak, probably entering your final move in the fall. Germany can't be excited about the fact that it will likely be a move that hurts his ability to hold off France.

France - solid moves again, getting your fleet into Hel gives you nice options for the coming turns in terms of attacking Hol, Den, or eventually Kie. A little bit of danger of getting overextended with three simultaneous fronts, though you have enough units and strong positioning right now to where I think you can probably get away with it, especially if Austria grabs Ven from Italy in the fall. Current positioning brings some interesting options into play for the upcoming turn, I'll refrain from posting what I have in mind there so as not to unduly influence things but if I forget someone remind me to revisit this point after the upcoming turn is complete.

Germany - grabbed Den, best you could do with what you had left, might get a build if you can hold it and all of your existing centers, though you are slightly outnumbered so that may prove difficult, especially if England goes after you with his parting shot. With a little luck you get a build and Russia comes to your rescue to hold off France soon thereafter, though I wouldn't bet on that outcome (holding off France) yet.

Italy - this is the danger of going after the short term gain of Gre. Austria was not pleased and at least for this turn decided to take it out on you. That combined with Turkey possibly making a gain this year (if Russia doesn't take back Rum) and France rolling units your way leave you in a much weaker position despite the one additional unit than you were a year ago at this time. Maybe Russia bails you out and hits both Austrian northern units to help you hold Ven or maybe Austria goes after something other than Ven this fall, but I'm not sure either of them will be inclined to pursue those options. Russia may have designs on following in behind Austria to grab Ven for himself after you lose it to Austria and Ven is Austria's potential target most likely to succeed so I think the odds are against you here. The key takeaway from the last few moves in terms of a learning experience is that sometimes a short term gain (especially when it is one center and requires splitting/separating your forces) is a bad medium-long term play. Try to factor in the future repercussions of your moves beyond just what will happen on this turn.

Russia - solid moves and it didn't hurt that Austria threw everything west this turn. Likely looking at 2 builds and possibly even 3 when the fall turn ends, though you are still a little behind France in terms of position and potential for growth. 2nd is often a great place to be headed to the mid-game though as the front runner often draws too much attention and if other get too caught up in stopping him that can allow you to explode into the lead and pull off the solo yourself. Of course you also have to balance that with the possibility that no one else will get moving to stop the front runner from soloing in time which means you never get your chance. Make sure you are watching the whole board and factoring in whether you want certain powers making gains or taking losses at this point and also whether certain powers are more useful to you as allies or if you are better off just plowing through them and controlling their centers yourself.

Turkey - first turn in a while that kind of went your way, I'm sure your TA is excited. Italy played defensive/passive (I thought he might go after Bul that turn which would have prevented you from taking Ser though might have gotten you Smy back). You still aren't out of the woods yet this year either as Austria could throw 2 units at Ser, Italy could go after Bul, and Russia may try to take back Rum. Or maybe none of those 3 happen. This will be a very interesting fall turn for you, could vault you back into the mix or could see your position get a little weaker than it was entering the year.

Fall 05 comments - before I forget, the interesting move I had in mind for France for this turn was the convoy of Mar to Tus via GoL which I would have paired with MAO-WMed. The chance to put an army behind enemy lines in Tus would have been very tempting to me there.

Austria - Well, Russia took Tyr cutting your support of attack on Ven, so now you are down to 1 unit and almost certainly toast next turn.

England - last center is gone. You just got a little overcommitted up north in this one and France took advantage and Russia/Germany defended too well for you to make more gains than losses. England is my worst country by far so I've been there plenty of times myself.

France - picking up Mun since England did not bounce Ber with Germany a nice bonus for you this turn. Only move I'm not crazy about here is the MAO-NAO. I think you have enough up north and could probably use the unit against Italy more at this point to roll through him. As I posted above I would have given the convoy to Tus a lot of thought to try to make a bunch of gains against Italy before the Russian armies beat you there or save him. With two builds coming you are still in great shape and with Turkey getting a build and Russia in Tyr Italy's position doesn't look too good so you may still have an opportunity there down the road. Though the flip side of that is Turkey getting the build means Italy can't really hold Smy and probably will pull back his units to defend his home centers.

Germany - you guessed wrong in terms of who to support from Kie and Engkand not bouncing Ber cost you Mun. With a disband coming it will be very tough for you to hold off France, though empty Bel makes your defensive position a lot better than it would be if he also had an army there already. Your best chance at this point is to get into a stalemate line center or two and hope someone helps you hold them. The good news in that regard is you are Germany, so Mun and Ber are right there.

Italy - Russia chose to let Turkey keep Rum so now Turkey has a build coming and you will be hard-pressed to hold Smy next year. France moving MAO-NAO gives you a little bit of a reprieve against him, but he will almost certainly be building in Mar and you are now stretched thin against a growing Turkey and a very strong France. Russia in Tyr and likely taking Tri next turn also looms as potential trouble for you.

Russia - you went for position over growth this turn with the move to Tyr rather than Tri and that is a valid approach, especially given your position on the board. And you do still have a build coming which makes the decision a little easier. With France moving to NAO there is another fleet potentially in the northern mix for him so you may need to counter that with a fleet in StP. We will soon get to a point where you will likely be forced to decide whether to throw everything into stopping French solo or trying to beat him to 18 and grab a solo for yourself. Though letting Turkey keep Rum there probably indicates you are leaning towards the former since he is now back up to 5 and probably taking back Smy for a 6th unit which makes him very difficult for you to finish off quickly enough to beat France to 18.

Turkey - best year of the game for you, finally caught some breaks. Russia let you keep Rum so you get a build and likely have another coming next year in Smy. With France moving another fleet north you can probably even pursue Italy beyond Smy without taking on too much risk of French solo.

Updated Tier Rankings
Solo threat - France
Solo lurker - Russia
On the rise, should be able to force his way into a draw - Turkey
In trouble but could still recover enough to get into a draw - Italy
In big trouble, needs to find a way to get into a stalemate line center and stay there - Germany
Dying - Austria
Dead - England

GG England.

bump for spring moves.

Spring 06

Austria - no surprise Tri-Ven did not succeed and Alb was your only retreat option. Probably your last move coming up.

France - solid defensive turn and you advanced Par-Pic for use in covering Bel presumably in the fall. Russia hit Mun from Tyr otherwise your support would have dislodged Kie from Den. Your position is still strong but you are running out of time to cross stalemate line in the north.

Germany - Russia helped you a lot with Tyr-Mun but the odds are still against you as France has the army in Pic advancing to the front. Still at least a chance to force yourself into the draw.

Italy - as expected knocked out of Smy. Probably going to take some good guesswork and/or creativity to grab a center from France to offset that loss. At least you don't need to worry about Austria attacking Ven in the fall. Of course Russia can throw two units at Ven now if he wants, so don't get too excited about that.

Russia - solid turn, advanced to Nor and took control of Tri. As mentioned above, Tyr-Mun helped Germany quite a bit and slowed down France on that turn. Rapidly approaching critical decision time. Do you just lock down the stalemate line with France or do you pivot to attack mode and try to grab the 7 centers in Balkans/Turkey plus the 9 you control counting Tri and try to get two Italian centers before France adds 7 centers? Taking Tri from Bud rather than Vie makes stabbing Turkey much more difficult now and the build he will get from taking Smy almost certainly means you wouldn't be able to pull it off in time, but still something that should be considered.

Turkey - good turn, grabbed control of Smy, Russia vacated Bud, France is committed more north than towards Italy so you can afford to beat up on him some more for now without putting yourself at too much additional risk of a French solo.

Autumn 06 comments

Austria - no move that would have worked on this turn. Better luck next time.

France - continued growth, two builds coming. Can you find 5 more centers with Russia rapidly closing on the stalemate line and Italy pulling back to defend?

Germany - in your favor is that Russia doesn't want France to get your two centers. Working against you is that France may get stuck far enough away from 17 that Russia won't need to keep you alive.

Italy - with Russia choosing to lock down the stalemate line around Mun/Ber you are most likely safe from having to worry about getting hit from both sides. France is likely going to throw everything he can at you now as gains are unlikely to be made in the north beyond him possibly taking Kie. Not out of the woods completely as Russia and Turkey could still decide to finish you off if it looks like they can do so without giving France a chance at 18. Your best bet is likely to get your units into critical centers such as Rom and Nap.

Russia - chose to play it safe and make sure that France is unlikely to solo. Probably the smart play though I think there was a chance for your own solo with a couple,different moves the last two turns. Still a chance you could make it happen I guess as Mun should be yours in the spring, but hard to see you breaking through against France in the north and not really enough firepower in the south to overrun Turkey now that he has added some centers.

Turkey - probably not going to be a whole lot for you to do the next few turns unless you decide you can cut Italy out of the draw safely and also decide that is something you want to do.

Bump

Spring 07 comments

France - moved aggressively towards Italy but may be too late now. Did catch a break with Italy and Turkey bouncing Ion which means you should be able to retake Tun in the fall. You also got a fleet into Den which can eventually move to Bal and give you a shot at Ber. The bad news is Russia got a fleet into Nth and also pushed you out of Mun which really hurts your chances to get to 18.

Germany - lost Kie and you'll be dependent on Russia's generosity to keep Ber. The bad news is even if France takes Ber he is still far from 18, so you aren't very essential to stopping the solo right now. Also even if France doesn't finish you off a good chance Russia just takes you out himself.

Italy - as mentioned above, the bounce in Ion means you likely lose Tun back to France this turn. At least Russia seems inclined not to attack you so far. You may want to prepare for the possibility that you lose Gre this turn and think about where your 3 units should be so that it is too risky for Russia and Turkey to let you die/kill you off.

Russia - very good moves, France's chances of soloing have dropped considerably. Grabbing Mun and being able to hold it long term gives you additional options. Getting into Nth also nice.

Turkey - not a whole lot left for you to do in this one unless you think you can finish off Italy quickly enough to not help France solo.

bump for autemn 07 moves.

Fall 07 comments - Looks like France and Russia are both content settling for the draw. Italy has also put up a draw vote. So it is up to Turkey and Germany whether this one continues.

France - I think the one decision you would probably like back in this game is when you moved another fleet north instead of east when Italy was still over by Turkey. As for this turn's moves, took Tun back as expected, also caught a break with Russia not bothering to attack Lon, but with no net builds coming and Russia entrenched in Mun and advancing fleets I agree that the solo ship has sailed for you.

Germany - looks like Russia and France are fine with taking the draw now rather than finishing you off, so congrats on getting into the draw as long as Turkey goes along with the decision.

Italy - not crazy about the decision to bounce Ion there. You are better off disbanding and rebuilding that unit in Rome and you need Turkey in Ion to help you hold off France. Bouncing Ion just makes it take longer for Turkey to get there. Looks like the game is about to end anyway,but if France were doing slightly better up north a mistake like that could be the difference between stopping a solo and allowing it to happen. When you are down to just a few centers and you are on the stalemate line against the solo threat you generally want to try to position yourself in critical centers, not sea spaces or non-center spaces.

Russia - solid late game defense. From the current position you may actually be a bigger solo threat than France, though not likely for either of you. Taking control of Nwg pushes France back and pretty much ends his northern threat. Not crazy about standing pat in Nth. I would have either taken a shot at Lon or tried for the Channel in case France vacated it to try to defend Lon. But that's a minor quibble and largely irrelevant assuming Turkey and Germany sign off on the draw.

Turkey - as mentioned above Italy is having a tough time getting on the same page with you, but that doesn't look like it will matter much in this one.

Drawn!

Good Game all!

Italy- Had you not tried to support France in the end I would have continued on for the solo. Your attacking Austria early on allowed me to focus on England, so thanks for that. Most of your moves confused me, you switched tactics very often and I couldn't tell if you were making foolish moves or just messing around.

Turkey- Thanks for working so well with me. I really wish I had helped you get Serbia back but my TA convinced me to support Bulg to Serbia instead. You didn't attack me when you had the chance and I enjoyed having your support throughout the game!

Austria- Good game. Italy attacking you from the start didn't help but you put up a valiant fight. Had Turkey not wanted to help me I would have been doomed early on.

France- You got lucky with England. he left himself wide open. You also missed a few nice chances but then again so did I, I guess for both of us position was better then having centers. I was planning to stop you until I saw Italy failing to hold you back, which now seems to have been on purpose.

Germany- I missed some of your hints earlier so we didn't cooperate well, but you did a nice job holding on for so long. I still don't know why you didn't pick a side early on and just focused on France, that lead to your downfall earlier, but you not picking a side ended up helping me so all's well that ends well right?

England- It was a pleasure to fight with you. Sadly France took the opening on you instead of attacking Italy when both were equal chances, and Germany did not help you or hinder me. I would have been in trouble had you had free reign against me, or had Italy not attacked Austria when he did which allowed me to focus on you.

Russia- ME! I swear it.

More EOG to come later.

Italy's ta here. I disagreed with Yale on a few occasions, and will be commenting more on that when I have access to a real computer.

Good game all.

i dont agree with yaleunc at the final position. in fact i strongly advised my student espi (russia) to take the DRAW. france can easily keep fighting for the solo, exspecially as italy seems to be pretty busy with fighting turkey and supporting (!) france. turkey, after taking SMY back, never did something else than to try to support (!) italy in the best possible way. dont know what italy was thinking. the russian fleet in NTH looks to me stronger than it really is. yes, the fleet can grap one SC, but not more. and for this it has to accept that france most likely gains ground in the north, with a possible break through. if france gets to PIE (why not move instant to it ?), which is pretty likely how italy played, MUN and BER will be a very good targets for france. the frensh fleet in BAL is very strong and when advising my student i overlooked the specific possibility that france did make in spring 07 with getting a fleet to DEN. in the final position after france gets a unit to DEN SWE will be also a very good target.
also russia can, on my opinion, never play for a win even if he can overcome france in the north. from the moment russa is in the lead turkey simply stabs him. turkey has lots of units only waiting for a job.

GG everyone! I'm really looking forward to the EOGs.

Major thanks to Yaleunc, his commentary was great and consistent, and even if people had different opinions, I think it's hard to argue anything was obviously wrong :)

I purposely didn't include any kind of Lusthog rules, implicitly or explicitly, but I'm open to hearing thoughts on that.

Thanks again to everyone involved, from the TAs to the Students, for making this a great experience! Especially Jimothy for taking over a German position to make it into the draw.

Another loud thanks to Jimothy for taking my Germany spot when I had to drop out.