@guak, I think we're just using words slightly differently, but I don't think it matters for now. No need to respond to the substance of my rebuttal now. It may be important to do so later, it may not.
For now, I really hope that the wagon on Espi picks up. Most of the good analysis on him is now several pages past. In general, I think he is most likely to flip mafia because:
(1) His post on page 1 flagging his assertion of his vanillaness for readers who will review the thread after the game strikes me as someone who believes they will play a central part here, and will be looked at differently by someone who is reviewing with knowledge of who was assigned what role. That is consistent with mafia and inconsistent with vanilla townie.
(2) His repeated strategy to call upon an inquisition on himself so that he might be cleared from the scrutiny is illogical, misguided, and possibly an effort to clear himself falsely. This is consistent with mafia, who would be looking to have false pressure applied and would be looking for false clearance. It is somewhat consistent with noob town, I suppose, in a way that any bad play by any new player could be dismissed away as noob town. But I don't think it is noob town because just because someone is inexperienced, that doesn't make them illogical.
(3) I've noticed that Espi has taken up the mantle of clueless newcomer even more since players (me included) began to question whether he is mafia, or misguided, because his posts did not help town. This is inconsistent with his post on the first page, which suggested that his dumbtell question about whether the cop should out was a "tip" for newplayers. At that stage, before any of this had happened, Espi explained away his actions as trying to guide new players. It does not fit the narrative that he later tried to construct.
Moreover, there is a lot of debate about Espi. Probably more debate about Espi than anyone else. I think an Espi lynch would be illuminating, either way. It would certainly tell me some things about Yoyo, as I've explained before. And I think it would make Day 1 rereads instantly quite informative.
Just to make sure I haven't accidentally changed a vote with a quotation: ##VOTE Espi