Oh God, that darg flip makes it really hard for me to figure this out. On the one hand, we know the yav wagon had at least one scum on it, but the other person on it was Spirit, and demon and ghug really wanted to lynch him the next day and darg's last vote was for Spirit.

If we'd kept them around, they would have caused more problems and possibly lost us the game anyway, either by getting mislynched and/or modkilled and/or swooping in with a last minute "I guess I'm here, don't modkill me, here's a stab in the dark" vote.
Lynch Lurkers Early, Lynch Lurkers Often

no prado, that was not the fucking way to do it, if we'd have missed on dar or lynched either of the two modkills, we would have lost. The smart move was to hammer it, but the intelligence of town is at an all time low apparently, cause only one of you can be scum now.

Kill half the people and rout out the weeds. There were two lurkers I didn’t want to lynch back to back because whoops we’d still lose.

Well one thing is clear. At some point the last scum bussed. It's just a matter of which day and if they were bussed themselves

GM is just checking this is still working...

Ok.

GM NOTE - On JMO's advice the game will continue HERE and not in the new forum.

Thank you for doing a thankless task.

Yeah, thanks for keeping this on track through all the changes, Jamie.

Bumpity lynch Spirit

Yeah we are gonna have to bookmark this

Ok, so I read an ungodly amount, rereading the three of you and most of the scum and town again.

Here are the case studies:

Foxcastle:

I’ve found that even when I’m trying to paint foxcastle as scum, it just never feels right, and I’ve tried several times throughout the game, as he’s always made me weary. He has 2 back-to-back tracks from flum lending to his credibility (which I forgot about at the start of yesterday), he voted convincingly for dar along with venca D6 and has been consistently wanting to lynch lurkers and pushing for that in everything he has said. While it could be a scum strategy, I’m inclined to believe it isn’t, because if he is scum, he has played this game ridiculously well making it this long without being caught as a new player and would have gotten really lucky to not be caught by flum two nights in a row when only he and dar could have made the nk, and dar was more likely to be tracked than him of the two because dar was lurking more. He has been widely town read by every significant dead towny besides flum and maniac, and flum was spotty as hell in his reads especially near the end and maniac died a long long time ago, but has been the most right of dead townies so far picking “Demon, Foxcastle, Ghug and one of Bozo, Vash, [and] Chaqa” As the remaining scum before he died. Fox also voted for ree yesterday, which doesn’t sit right with me, but I believe his reasons and he seems to townread vash over me for some reason, but ok, I can understand that. He does have a tendancy to sheep votes a bit, mostly from vash and vecna, but given current information he isn’t sheeping a scum teammate and I can understand him sheeping significant towny seeming people as a new player. My main qualm with him is that he never withstood a serious wagon on him, to see how he reacted to it, but that is true of everyone here besides me, so I’m endorsing foxcastle as town for lylo.

Vash:

I have never been more frustrated with someone in this game than I was with him yesterday. Still, his shift from ree to dar made us lynch dar and if vash was scum, he would know he would win if he just lynched ree and let guak get modkilled. Either he viewed it as too much of a risk if guak came back and he had to explain why he and dar ended up on ree with foxcastle, and that the case against him and dar would have been strong at that point. I don’t think he’d do this as scum, too much thought and caution required, not like vash. He also expressed disinterest in the game continuing, and thus refused to hammer to extend it, which means an all knowing scum vash would have just lynched ree and been done with the game.

There is also the weird push on yav on D2, which looks really bad on vash when yav flipped town, so it is less likely that vash would have pushed him hard like that if he knew he was going to flip town. Even if they thought yav might be a PR, it would have been risky as hell.

Then there is also the fact that not a single dead towny has scumread him, not fucking one. Like, I don’t even know how that happens. Maniac said he might be scum, but only one of him, chaqa and bozo were scum by his assertion, and chaqa/dar flipped scum, so Vash really has no dead towny scum reads.
He has also at various times done actual scum hunting and analysis, which is more than I can say for the other two of the people here that aren’t myself.

The points where vash gets scummy are when he just does and says things for no comprehensible reason. Cold accessible logic has been presented to vash several times this game and he has just gone “nope, think I won’t today.” Even though it makes no sense to me, his scum reading of ree is consistent, and if we take him as town, the tunneling he did on yav and ree, both confirmed town, seem consistent with each other as his style of play. He also passed up taking advantage of flum’s paranoia about vecna on day 7, instead voting for ree. Dar couldn’t resist, and I feel like a scum wouldn’t have passed up a chance to vote for someone who was a vocal towny and happened to be on the chopping block. Only reason I can think is to distance himself from dar, but he is playing consistent and believable town in this case to be on ree.

I’m feeling more town than scum from vash, though it would make me a little happy to lynch him after yesterday ;)

TrPrado:

Ok, so this one is a bit of a doozy, and by now you know he is my pick for scum, but I actually went into my research with him as my strongest town read and it changed the more and more I read him.

Examining his play yesterday, he voted for me right out of the gate for no reason (just like he’s pushing for me now for no reason, even after I basically saved town from losing). Ok whatever, he’s clueless, sure. Then I ask him to tell me if he thinks vash is town, and he says yeah because of the yav tunneling, but then pushes dar with me and against vash, which makes no sense if he was actually believing vash as he said then and is continuing to say now, but ok, maybe he just thought ree was town or dar was scum. He now wants to lynch me even after I pushed so hard for a lynch that flipped scum, which he sided with me on and we were right on together. I don’t believe his scum read of me at all. His actions are straight illogical.

A quick defense of me: Literally half the scum this game I’ve been one of the people most responsible for their lynching. I pushed Demon and ghug hard on day 3 (go back and read my day 3 btw, I clearly spell out how it makes no sense for me to be scum while pushing those two), and I could have just sheeped onto ree and got an easy win if I was scum, but no, I decided to push dargorygel with everything I had. Anyone who thinks I’m scum at this point is delusional, seriously, I know it is easy to see yourself as obvious town when you are, but I can’t even see how you could think I’m anything but town after yesterday, for real. But on with my case on prado!
Consider his D2, he very sneakily expresses doubt in the bo lynch, pressing flum on why he is so certain:

Page 90

I don't get why you're [flum] so confident about bo. You never laid out an actual case against him. Is there something you're seeing but not saying?

Page 91

Hey wow just read EOD and....

It's still pretty fucking weak, Flum. [referring to case on bo]

He then gets into an odd argument with vash over vash’s pushing of yav, very adamantly defending yav, even though realistically if he’s town, he doesn’t know his alignment. Eventually he votes vash specifically because of this.

Page 90

“##VOTE VASHTANEUROTIC

Who would win:
New obv town [yav] OR one tunnelly boi [vash]?”

He then says he can’t believe vash as scum without yav being scum, so he unvotes.

Page 95

“probably not, but it's growing harder for me to see Vash as scum without yavuz also being scum

so ##UNVOTE”
[later that page]
“##VOTE BO_SOX48”

Finally, all his skeptism of the bo wagon fall away and he votes him. I really think this is Prado trying to come up with an alternative target other than bo and then realizing he’d have to bus him.

Trprado has been strongly townreading foxcastle and had been reading yav as town the whole game, based on nothing other than a feeling. He townread both of them with little to no lead up and just went with it. While his feelings could just be right, it makes more sense to me that he saw them as noobs he could buddy and confidence if they lasted into the game or people he could get “I told you they were town” town points on if they got mislynched. His explanation for both was simply that they are new players and that he is the new player whisperer, but the level he unflinchingly held them up as town feels strange to me. He also at various times defended me but with weird explanations for it, like on day 3 when my wagon was forming he said:
“I also feel like every case against Spirit is based on circular logic that depends on him being scum then going around to say “well that proves he’s scum””

And

“Also, while Spirit isn’t on either list, I still don’t get the case on him. It’s entirely possible he’s just stupid, and it’s a bit hard for me to imagine scum being so overt about it.”

Then afterwards, he immediately votes vecna with no explanation, who was my biggest defender throughout the entire game, which is another weird logical break. It seems like TrPrado has an unusual ability to sense townies on gut when it doesn’t matter, but when it does, like all the townies we lynched in late game, it doesn’t work at all. It all really comes off as him trying to get noobs to blindly follow him (I wouldn’t be surprised if he thought of me as a stupid noob as well) or just to fight against their lynch and get town cred when they flip town.

On day 3, Prado starts the day by voting maniac with no explanation. Then ghug expresses interest in shooting either maniac or vecna, and then damian hops on maniac with prado, joined by demon soon after. It seems like prado was trying to lay a foundation that made maniac into a viable target for ghug’s shot that day, like they planned it. Maniac really shouldn’t have been a viable target for ghug’s shot, but a combination of scum and damian throwing shade on him made him into a viable target. We realized that the maniac shot was scummy as hell soon afterword, and lynched ghug and DO primarily because of it, but we missed prado’s role in starting it. It is also worth mentioning that if prado is scum, he was the only scum member to not be picked out by maniac, making him the ideal one to start pushing him. Plus he has the wild card play style to just throw it out without being scum read for having no explanation. He’s also done this trick with me (yesterday and tonight), vecna (mysteriously after defending me on D2 as mentioned earlier), bozo (start of day 5), brainbomb (immediately upon entering the game) as well as maniac, who are all confirmed town now (ok besides me). Why is it that whenever he throws a random vote out without any discussion or explanation happening, it always lands on vocal townies who have now proven to have good reads (bozo was the only one with meh reads)?

Day 4 showed Prado pushing ghug, like he’d been in the last day, and everyone voted ghug, even ghug, so no big revelations here.

Day 5 prado makes a big case for bozo, which is the only time he really made a case on anyone the whole game, unless you count the flirt he had with vash on day 2. Bozo’s wagon gets some steam, but falls off and he goes back a forth a couple times between bozo and uber, and finishes on uber.

Day 6 he votes bozo all day, and succeeds in getting him lynched. Most people agreed that bozo didn’t seem very scummy after he started talking that day, but we decided to lynch him to get snowy an item, and so no one really evaluated prado for actually pushing his case, even one just walked away with an “eh, at least we got an item out of it.” But Prado got almost no security for pushing a towny for two whole days. Also, if you’re going to choose a towny to mislynch and not have anything come back on you for it as scum, bozo is your man, he gets mislynched every game like clockwork.

Day 7 he sheeps quietly onto the vecna wagon as the last vote, after pointing out vecna’s frustrations with the bozo wagon the day before and saying he didn’t do enough about it.

I also made a table comparing the end votes of currently alive players to those on the scum team, for your reference if it is helpful: https://imgur.com/pWjjCZO

Not too much came from it, besides a theory that mafia may have tried to spread out for the first 3 days of the game, after which it became hard for them to spread out as much because of player count. This might implicate prado (at the time it was still seven) for trying to spread it his vote away from other mafia day 1, but it also works to implicate me in the same way since we both ended on NES, in reality, Seven’s situation could have been like mine and he just got busy at EoD1 and couldn’t come back to change his vote.

Finally, like all the remaining people, prado was widely town read by dead townies, with one notable exception in Vecna, who said in some of his last posts before he died:

“scum = prado + darg”

And

“if he [flum] dies as can be expected, lynch fucking dargorygel. if it flips scum, lynch prado and guak afterwards. then we win. if darg flips town, too bad, you fuckibg deserve to loose for wastibg all our mislynches on people that actually gave a shit this game.

if you still dont see it, check dargs obvious shitreads. check chaqas play. not reading the game yet miraculoysly finding scum day1.”

Vecna makes it very clear that he believes prado is scum, especially after the dargorygel scum flip. That is a confirmed towny with some of the best reads this whole game saying that.

Conclusion

When I look at fox and vash, I do find compelling reasons to think they’re town, and when I look at prado, I find none, even though I went into it looking to townread him. There are a lot of really off-putting coincidences to prado’s play if he is town, from starting the push on maniac and making him a viable shot, pushing a bad case on bozo for two days that he got no heat for, mysteriously casting random out of no where votes for town who have proven to have the best reads this game, and the best recently dead towny vecna said he should be lynched immediately if dar flipped scum, and oh look dar just flipped scum.

I assume I’m dying tonight, please consider my reads going into lylo. I caught demon, ghug and dar by reading heavily into the dead townies I trusted (brain, maniac and Venca), and while I could be wrong, please take this post into serious consideration if you see me flip town tonight.

Sorry if any of my writing got messy in there, let me know if you have any questions for me before EoN.

When was I skeptical of the bo wagon?

I quoted you twice. I forgot to put quotation marks on them there, but they are under "page 90"

“Trprado has been strongly townreading foxcastle and had been reading yav as town the whole game, based on nothing other than a feeling.”

That requires a LOT of misreading. As new players unfamiliar with how to play as either town or scum, it’s REALLY easy to read them on little behavior. New players follow a learning curve that is very visible. Scumbos are afraid of being caught first and foremost, and there’s nothing in the way either have played that looks like they’re avoiding being caught. They get in the thick of it and try in their own way to be helpful. Then there’s the progression in ability. If there’s no progression or if it’s too fast, then there’s likely coaching.

So I think there’s substantial enough reason to have called both yavuz and Fox obvtown.

I kept the bo wagon alive, dude.

“I assume I’m dying tonight,”

Whoa whoa whoa what gives you THAT idea??

“On day 3, Prado starts the day by voting maniac with no explanation. Then ghug expresses interest in shooting either maniac or vecna, and then damian hops on maniac with prado, joined by demon soon after. It seems like prado was trying to lay a foundation that made maniac into a viable target for ghug’s shot that day, like they planned it.“

All of this ignores the fact that there was a lot of discussion N2 about people intending to vote for Maniac. I didn’t start that push, and there was nothing secretive about it.

Spirit: " His explanation for both was simply that they are new players and that he is the new player whisperer, "

=

TrPrado: "As new players unfamiliar with how to play as either town or scum, it’s REALLY easy to read them on little behavior. New players follow a learning curve that is very visible. Scumbos are afraid of being caught first and foremost, and there’s nothing in the way either have played that looks like they’re avoiding being caught. They get in the thick of it and try in their own way to be helpful. Then there’s the progression in ability. If there’s no progression or if it’s too fast, then there’s likely coaching."

and you were townreading both before any progression could take place and it isn't that you're wrong about new players acting that way, but you were way too confident in it. But yeah, if that were the only thing on you, it would be a weak case, but it isn't it is one of many. I read you say what you said here 5 times, I understand your case, and it is just your feeling, nothing more.

Trprado: "I kept the bo wagon alive, dude."

No, no you didn't, you jumped on it when everyone else did after bo claimed. Go look at the vote tracker for day 2.

I assume I'm dying tonight because I think I'm the most obvious town and scum would be dumb not to kill me after yesterday. You can disagree, but I think I have a great record this game as town, and am clearly the one putting in the most work trying to figure this out.

I changed my mind on bo because he kept contradicting himself when I asked him questions and was pursuing cases that made me uncomfortable. I was just skeptical of Flum’s specific case because he was confident for something I thought was unsubstantial.

Regarding Vash it looked like he was setting up an easy target to knock down the pins, then I unvoted because I realized that scum wouldn’t be so blatant about pursuing that type of target.

“No, no you didn't, you jumped on it when everyone else did after bo claimed.”

Then when scum tried to set up counter wagons I stayed. When people tried killing the wagon, I was one of the people that kept it viable.

“I assume I'm dying tonight because I think I'm the most obvious town”

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAA

I wasn’t the first to come up with that analysis of new players, and I’ve used it in the past. It’s not unsubstantial, and has a been proven true in past games.

“and you were townreading both before any progression could take place”

I joined the game D2, when it would begin since the scum had already been able to converse.

"All of this ignores the fact that there was a lot of discussion N2 about people intending to vote for Maniac. I didn’t start that push, and there was nothing secretive about it. "

Demon wanted to lynch brain and maniac for voting her, and hellonic riot mentioned that he thought maniac and brain were most likely to flip scum. Then brain dies and flips town that night, and everyone just assumes "oh, maniac did it!" yeah maniac killed the person who was the only other person a couple of people were mentioning could be scum with him, so he could be the only target for them. Seems legit. He is just another towny with good reads you found a reason to vote for, it is really a horrible coincidence if that happened so many times if you are town.

He was the most widely scumread player if you actually reread N2

You’re blatantly lying about the discussion. I felt it was most likely for Maniac to have been scum because bo created a list of players that likely included a bus and the one he didn’t pursue was Maniac. It’s a bit silly since Maniac was the only one on that list who wasn’t scum but hindsight is 20/20

Upon rereading your night 2, you did mention a case on maniac that I missed in my analysis before, so it wasn't with no explanation when you voted maniac on day 3, just no explanation that day or with your vote. My bad, but an easy error to make when most of your vote posts are just votes with no explanation. I see several people naming off brain, maniac and demon in n2, some had even more scumreads outside of them too. He was scumread by people, you're right, but he was far from an obvious next lynch or shot where you can just throw a vote down an walk away. This doesn't change the fact that there was a concerted effort by scum to shoot maniac and make it look legit while they did it, both ghug and DO pushing for him tell you that. You're involvement just fits in so nicely if you were scum as well.

Also, yeah I agree, you going after the only one of bo's scum reads that wasn't actually scum does seem like another coincidence. Didn't catch that earlier.

Town was pushing for that too. Damian had an elaborate case that involved Maniac as scum as well.