Right, I never reread Espi. Off to do that.

Espi, I hadn't noticed that you were both at 4 and no-one was at 3, but I don't think that really matters. Guak is a convincing guy, and even if he doesn't get TrPrado lynched today, I'd be surprised if he were lynched ahead of you.

I don't really see the merit to a Guak lynch. I have him at a null right now in my reads. Can some one sum up the analytical basis for a Guak lynch with any supporting evidence, please?

@guak - You say "D1 has worst odds than random. Mafia manipulates the vote so they get a town kill more often than not." Then wouldn't it stand to reason that the people with the most votes on them are the people the mafia knows to be innocent?

@DL - Why Espi over guak? Because people have been far more vocal about Espi being mafia, and I think that makes him more likely to be my competition for today's lynch. Why try to save myself when there are six hours left? Because I'm not going to be sitting here refreshing the page and changing my vote at the very last second.

@ND - Why vote for Espi with no evidence? I think I spent 200 words explaining that in my last post -- the one in which I voted for Espi.

@phil - True, the mafia could random-kill, but as many people here are established mafia players, and as the mafia seems to be as likely to think that all these day 1 reads are meaningful as anyone else, I think the mafia already has a few people they want to see dead. A random kill is always possible, but I don't expect to see it.

I'm still 75% sure that Espi is innocent -- maybe slightly more, because it seems like people with lots of votes would probably be innocents with mafia votes on them. But I'd need to be 100% sure to let myself die in his place.

@SS: That's not entirely true you supplement your post with this:

"I'd like to say that even though I'm voting for Espi, I still believe that there's no evidence against him whatsoever, and that he's as likely to be mafia as any of you. If it weren't down to him or me, I would never vote for him."

So if you don't see any evidence or reasonable case against him then why are you voting Espi and not some other random player? If there is no case/evidence against Espi there are 11 other players out there you can vote for (if we remove Espi/youself). I am just trying to find out a little more about your thought process when making this vote.

@ND - Because a vote for someone who doesn't have a chance of being lynched is a wasted vote. If I voted for you, I doubt anyone else would, and you'd still be alive. My vote wouldn't have any effect on the outcome. Whereas if I vote for someone who has a chance of being lynched, my vote is having an effect.

It's the reason nobody in the US ever votes Nader for president.

@SS: Explain this in more detail:

" I think the mafia already has a few people they want to see dead. A random kill is always possible, but I don't expect to see it."

My reads on Saladin and Guak, both of whom are town, in my view:

Guak - TOWN

Opens at 3 and 4 with a list of 6 “things to know” including “I always lurk,” “I am bored which is why I am not yet lurking,” and some meta-thoughts/jokes on Phil, Yoyo, Jeff Kuta, DL, and bo.

Notes at 5 that TrPrado is defending bo. Notes at 6 that Jeff is buddying him. Also talks about trust and paranoia, and explains that “generating discussion is what is important.” I agree.

Tells phil at 5 that “there is no way I can get a good read on anyone before at least a couple of flips have happened. Then you can really start making connections and recognizing scummy behavior by going back to the thread and rereading. Right now, it is all random guesswork.”

Guak returns after a sabbatical at 13, and votes for Saladin for “argumenting in favor of a no lynch.” I think that Guak and others are too dismissive of Saladin’s ideas, and a little too wedded to ideas/strategies that have been too quickly adopted as proven theories on this site. But Guak’s acceptance of these “theorems” is consistent with Guak’s approach/worldview, and I don’t find it suspicious that he’s voting based on it. Continues his push on Saladin further down 13 for the same reasons – the suggestion of a no lynch.

On page 14, guak makes a strong and reasoned argument against Saladin’s “no lynch” idea. I think Guak is overly dismissive of Saladin and the merit of Saladin’s arguments, but Guak makes good points. I wish Guak wouldn’t interpret Saladin’s disagreement regarding this actually interesting and complicated question of random votes/no lynch/lynch question regarding day 1, but it is consistent with Guak’s overall arrogance and acceptance of unproven Webdip theorems.

At the bottom of 14, Guak says that “read lists suck and are pretty worthless.” I appreciate the sentiment here. Guak’s point is that being comprehensive and listing everyone for the purpose of listing everyone can be wasted real estate. What is important is lots of substantive analysis, in whatever form it takes. I agree.

At bottom of 14, Guak defends himself against an ND attack regarding Guak’s inconsistency about the importance of Day 1 interactions. It is a good rebuttal – the general idea is that Day 1 interactions are very important, but only looking back with more information. This is also consistent with Guak’s disagreement with Saladin re No Lynch/Lynch on Day 1.

At 16, Guak further defends his ideas that reads lists are unnecessary, substance is important, and Saladin is scum for suggesting no lynch. These arguments seem genuine and sound (though I disagree with the one about Saladin).

At 17, Guak defends himself against a forming bandwagon. Makes good points that a jokeposting critique of him is not sound (I agree with Guak, I don’t see many joke posts after the start, I see substance). Also makes a good point about the importance of backing up analysis like PLAYER A is X and is therefore scummy, with an analysis of why X is scummy. Guak is absolutely right about that, and it is an important pro-town point that town should keep in mind. Guak also makes a strong argument here against TrPrado for bandwagoning, and explains exactly why TrPrado’s votes and actions look scummy. Again, I agree.

CONCLUSION: Guak is making good sense. I think he has made a mistake in dismissing some good and seemingly genuine arguments by Saladin about random versus non-random votes D1. Also, Saladin has been clear not to endorse all of town voting no lynch. Rather, he has suggested that it wouldn’t be so bad if it ended in a tie, avoiding the death of an innocent. Guak has a strong argument that we’d rather get the info from the flip, but this is at least a reasonably close question on which reasonable minds could differ. Guak’s position should not be accepted as a proven theorem, and people who disagree are not mafia for presenting good counter-arguments. All that said, Guak’s dismissiveness of Saladin’s points and pursuit of Saladin as a lynch is consistent with Town Guak.


Saladin - TOWN

Opens at 6 by saying that everyone should “vote to kill on the first day” and then casting an explicitly “effectively random” vote on Jeff.

At 8, defends his initial post by explaining that everyone casting a vote adds information to the night kill, and says that he doesn’t want anyone to die today. Also makes a curious comment “If I were mafia, I would pick someone who an innocent person had already voted for. Then my mafia buddies could back me up, hopefully with another innocent vote or two, and it would look like popular opinion.” Some people have picked this out as a possible instruction to mafia buddies. That’s not how I read it. I think that trying to explain to town what the mafia might be up to is perfectly reasonable, and made sense in the context of Saladin explaining his town strategies. To me, Saladin’s positions are consistent and reasonable.

Further down 8, Saladin has drawn some heat for his no suggestion that he wants nobody to die, and defends it. He explains his mafia experience, and defends his position that he doesn’t want somebody lynched, but he hopes everyone lynches for information. His “no lynch” strategy seems to be premised on the idea that we require a majority (not a plurality) to lynch. I’m reading that misconception about the rules as genuine, and it is not alignment indicative as both mafia and town have a strong interest in reading the voting rules carefully.

At 9, Saladin gets caught up further in explaining his initial posts about strategy and articulating “wine in front of you.” I wish he wouldn’t spend so much time on this (as I didn’t interpret his initial posts as scummy), but he’s taken a lot of heat, so he continues to address it.

At the bottom of 9, Saladin posts a purportedly substantive post, after others requested more analysis. He concludes that “I have no strong suspicions of anyone at this point,” and rather than commenting on anyone, he uses the post to further explain his thinking that it’s hard to get it right on D1, and mafia can sway the vote, so random voting makes sense.

At this point, I think Saladin has overdone the defense of his strategy and general thinking. I wish he’d move on. But he’s getting a lot of questions about it, so I can understand why he continues to defend. He needs to begin discussing others. Though, his hesitancy to draw conclusions on day one is consistent with the strategy/philosophy that he’s articulated.

At 11, Saladin corrects his earlier “1/13” error, and tells Yoyo and bo that he doesn’t really think there is a good case against Espi, as he’s buying the misguided townie narrative (agreeing with Yoyo on that point). Says of Espi “His playstyle might work much better in the context in which he's used to playing.” To me, this disagreement with the Espi arguments reads more genuine than Yoyo’s or TrPrado’s. If anyone, at this point, could empathize with the new person getting some heat for a different approach, it is Saladin. And I think Saladin takes at least a little bit of time to make an argument about why he does not think there is a good case against Espi. Again, this is consistent with Saladin’s reluctance to draw conclusions on Day 1 (a philosophy also espoused by Guak). I wish Saladin would take the time here to do a more thorough read, but so far he has not shown willing to put in the time or effort to do that (also, consistent with his D1 philosophy).

Further down 11 and on 12, Saladin does more defending of his strategy/philosophy, and seems frustrated. Move on to something new Saladin.

More discussion of WIFOM and Saladin’s opinions about the accuracy of a Day 1 lynch on 13. Saladin says: “No, I don't claim to have a better strategy than a shot in the dark. My first post said that I was taking a shot in the dark because that's all we can do at this point. Everyone else seems to think they're doing some complicated psychological profile, and I'm just pointing out that it all comes down to a shot in the dark.” Saladin is very defensive here, and clearly frustrated. But I think that’s because he’s getting hammered based on assumed Webdip theorems, when Saladin actually has a point about the inaccuracy and potential bias of a Day 1 lynch. What I’ve quoted above from Saladin is a good explanation of why a Day 1 lynch can be problematic, but nobody is agreeing with Saladin (I think, wrongly).

Further down 13, Saladin continues to defend his suggestion that a no lynch can be good on Day 1, and describes it as “sandblasting the Mona Lisa.” Again, I think Saladin makes strong arguments, that are being rejected based on Webdip presumed theorems that are far from proven.

CONCLUSION: I wish Saladin would not spend so much time defending his game philosophy/strategy, but I understand why Town Saladin would do so. He has come under serious fire for disagreeing with what some of the more experienced players around here take as truth. I think some of the “accepted truth” dismissiveness of Guak and others have prevented them from looking closer at Saladin’s arguments, which are good ones. To me, Saladin is a smart townie who has been spending too much time talking about himself, and I’d like him to direct his reasoning towards others.

@ND - If I were mafia, I'd probably kill a more experienced player -- someone who did very well in a previous game. I might also kill someone who has clearly made some enemies other than myself, because that would throw suspicion on that person's enemies rather than me. There's no real downside to a random kill, but it seems to me that the mafia has more to gain if they pick their kill carefully based on what they know.

DAY ONE OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 3.0:

Espi (4): phil_a_s, Balki Bartokomous, ND, SaladinSmith
SaladinSmith (2): Yoyoyozo, bo_sox48
guak (4): Lucland, DeathLlama9, americaslacker, Trprado
TrPrado (2): Jeff Kuta, guak
americaslacker (1): Espi

Currently NO ONE is set to be lynched. The day ends in 5.17 hours.

Im glad that the game finally took off. For those that complained about my strategy early game, I was just trying to get everyone talking more so I had something to go from. The first 5 pages is contaminated with joke posts so my prime objective was to stir discussion. Since Espi was a topic of discussion most of the time, I decided to roll with it. I'm I still don't think he's scum and I will reread guak.

ESPI - PART ONE

Espi’s start to this game is not a good one. He opens up with an awkward opening post, blatantly claims VT, and thinks the cop should not claim immediately. Good work.

However, it’s not as scummy as Balki thinks it is - @BB if you look closely you’ll see he asked “who else thinks the cop shouldn’t claim” after stating his opinion, yes indeed the cop shouldn’t claim d1. So he never actually thought cop should claim.

He claims next that this was a tip. I don’t think this scummy - while it’s a bit unnecessary, it does read like “the cop shouldn’t claim, who’s with me?” rather than “should the cop claim?”

On page two, he emptily asks for a voting tracker and has an interesting response to Jeff’s jokevote on him - “I hope you would change that before the day is over” makes it seem like painting a nice big target on his back wasn’t Espi’s first plan.

His first martyr post isn’t on page three, when he asks Guak to let Jeff keep questioning him so he can prove he is town, mainly because the last bit. On this page he also proposes not voting early on as his strategy. “ it is a very good tactic but one I do not prefer to use myself. I would rather let people think I do not suspect them until the best moment to voice my suspicions,” wtf?

Phil votes Espi for a contradiction that isn’t very contradictory. Espi goes into full-on martyr mode with “I am honored to be questioned first”

Explains his position on voting - “Yoyo, I think that holding your cards close to you is very smart as it does not show any possibly scum that you suspect them, by voting you state that suspicion openly, which could lead toward them giving away clues, but by not voting, you can get more indirect clues, in my opinion anyway” which makes no sense because why are indirect clues better than direct clues from pressure? (hint: they are not.)

“those that openly accuse people early on, and who happen to be right about Mafia, tend to not make it to end game” errrrrrrr. “BTW this is fun, being the focus right now. If I appear to be scummy right now, I do apologize, but I understand if I get Lynched day 1.” More martyring.

“So far some people haven't been asking me any questions, will those in question explain themselves?” The “so suspicious you have to ask me questions” line? Errr you just apologized for being suspicious contradictory much?

Says he wants to be a target instead of a scumhunter, w/e.

“guak, as DL said to ME” errr (also if I already asked the question what need is there to ask it again?) “I feel that ND, Tr, Yoyo and Balki are trying to lead things more which is why I am trusting them for now.” scum can’t do that, amirite? The inclusion of Yoyo is concerning and I could see a Yoyo/Espi scumteam.

“Balki, part of that is I want to gain information by giving out bait, seeing who takes the bait and who doesn't, while also seeing what people are doing with the bait. I do not intend to fully clear myself, in fact if people do not continue to suspect me I will wonder why” WTF STOP BEING CONTRADICTORY.

Proposes his “claim mafia” idea which is, er, not a good one. Says he agrees with me on two points and adds me to his trust list because he enjoys our conversations. Okay then. “Also DL, those that do suspicious actions that immediately catch my eye, I have commented on. What I have also learned is that this is a fun game.”

We’re at page eight now. Balki posts his case on Espi.

Yoyo thinks Espi is town.

Espi argues against Balki’s case, not too convincingly but not that scummily either. He says he’s acting scummily but still town.

“Quick comment, BB, you say you are focusing your time on me, which is easily seen, but also say that doing so is a waste of a time, yet you and a few others are now gettings reads based on how others respond to your analysis and my remarks, and who doesnt respond. Is this still a waste of time, for I am seeing a lot of benefit in this.”

A bit more analysis coming up.

Espi is a walking bag full of contradictions, but at times he seems a towny walking bag full of contradictions. I do sense some buddying early on between Espi and Yoyo, but it's subtle. I don't like how he doesn't start off that martyr-esque ("prove I'm town") but quickly phasing into it on page three ("I understand if I get Lynched day 1"). He martyrs a lot, makes contradictions, and I don't like his target strategy. He still hasn't revealed much, I'd like to see a few detailed reads @Espi. He reads like a newb, which could go either way, but the buddying with yoyo and all of the contradictions make me doubt his towniness.

The long-awaited case against TrPrado!!!

Alright quick summary first and supporting evidence after in the following post, so if you are feeling lazy and don't want to read the long post, at least read the summary post.

1) TrPrado has been reactive: every time he has been accused he has reacted to the accusation by changing the behavior that generated the accusation.

2) TrPrado has tunneled on me since the start of the game and has hounded my every post. Worse than anything he has made sure not to take the lead on my lynch but rather used underhanded comments and defamation while letting DL and Luc take the fall for my imminent town flip.

3) Possible mafia teammate in Balki Bartokomus. I have seen some serious positive associations from these two while also seeing distancing posts from these two. This is classic mafia behavior where both member try to distance themselves from each other while trying to make townies think positively of each other.

4) One of the top posters in this game -> almost zero content. TrPrado has the most posts of anyone in here, and yet his early reads list was the crappiest of them all, full of hedging reads and lacking content, he has yet to build a case, and most of his posts are basically deflecting attention from himself unto someone else - usually myself.

Overall, TrPrado has been playing a game of fluff posting while holding a central position in the town. I would say he has been trying to mimic ghug's usual behavior to try and appear town since ghug is usually town read early on. But he has been copying ghug from the games he was mafia and not from the games he was town, so he screwed up here. The shifting around of votes for pressure loses its effect when he says he is doing it to pressure others. Also his excessive shifting of votes a la ghug has not been sincere as he has all along had only one scum read - me.

I would say I am 65% certain that TrPrado is scum at this point, and for a D1 read that is probably amongst the strongest scum reads I have ever had coming in to D1.

Back and about to go back and answer questions before I update my reads list. The first thing that stood out to me was "Guak also makes a strong argument here against TrPrado for bandwagoning, and explains exactly why TrPrado’s votes and actions look scummy" This is blatantly false. I haven't been bandwagoning. My vote is on my top scumread, and I was the first person to put a vote on him at any point. He simply hasn't shifted anywhere closer to town from the way I see things. Before that, I was the sole person on a vote for slacker.

Oh, guak's case will be fun to disprove. What an x-post to see.

@Lucland, @DeathLlama9, @Trprado, @americaslacker

A four-person wagon on guak, including the two most absent and ineffective players (Lucland and amerislacker) to date? I haven't seen an argument to lynch Guak today that makes sense to me. It is surprising that anyone would genuinely consider him to be the most likely hacker mafia scum at this point. That there is a four-person wagon developed is suspicious. Each of you, please post a detailed analysis of why your vote lies where it lies.

@guak … laziness is scummy on day one. In some instances, especially late in the game, laziness is a combination of scummy and useless, which is equally dangerous to the town in my opinion. *Never* is laziness solely townie. That's bullshit. It is a behavior that results in lackluster play as town and allows scum to slip through until the later days when they can really influence things. We can't lynch everyone who's lazy, because then we have no time for scumhunting, but we better be pressuring them to do better.

Yoyo in particular has been lazy while he posts, as I called him out for earlier, and lazy in his treatment of the game in general from the very start. Part of that probably comes from the fact that he didn't know he was going to be playing immediately until the game actually started, but part of that is that he doesn't have enough care to help out on day one, when we have the least information and when the littlest clue could lead to a big break. Being lazy right now is nothing short of scummy, but, as I said earlier, I learn as much from reactions as I do from the evidence itself, and Yoyo's reaction to being called out was fairly confrontational and sarcastic, which more often that not means townie. That's why I'm fairly torn on him right now and why I don't think he's a good lynch today, but he's going to have to pick it up on day two and I'm going to make sure he does.

@Espi …

"But the point still stand that we have 3 mafia who have voted so far, or 1 or 2 who haven't. My thoughts on a Mafia vote would either be for each person to vote for a separate person, or 2 people to vote for one person and 1 person to vote for another."

… followed up with …

"do you really think 2 mafia would be dumb enough to try and defend me? If I am Mafia I am the biggest link right now, I would think they would be trying to bus me right now."

Is it just me or does this seem like some subtle communication? It seems to me like you are trying to coalesce some teammates into organizing your votes as the town begins to organize their own, hopefully influencing the vote track the town takes. Also, it seems to be suggesting that there might be a mafia member yet to vote, or at the very least yet to vote for one of the three leading votegetters. Maybe this conspiracy TV I'm watching isn't helping me here, but I want to hear from you on this. Care to explain?

Also, Espi, you said there are others you would rather vote for. We have time. Who and why?

@Lucland … the game isn't about to move any slower. Catch up and give us something before EOD. You're being lazy too.

Gonna read up on this guak/TrPrado thing. ##UNVOTE for now.

@Balki: I already asked for that. Doesn't seem like they are willing or able to do that.

@bo, the second part of your quote was a response to people saying they thought the Mafia would be trying to spare me, please keep that in your mind when you read my post. I believe I was the last one to vote, with only slacker voting just before me (his vote leading to mine).

So, if I am leading a Mafia vote. Who have I been trying to lead so far? Is it the possible Mafia defending me to stop, is it the Mafia who aren't attacking me enough? What is it? I have been trying to get people off of guak, thats for sure, as I hope he might be more useful later on. Do you have any incidents of my leading the vote, or any estimation of what my leading the vote might mean? Also, what about the other people who have mentioned vote leading?

BTW, thank you for noticing that part. I was going to write "inb4 being accused of vote leading" just after I noticed that in my post, but guak suggested that my continuing to talk about my being scum would be unwise so I didn't.

I keep flip-flopping on who I want to vote, so I keep going back to the earlier pages and trying to find any analytical reason that I can back up, no luck so far.

@BB I am really tempted to vote on Tr right now, a lot of that is my foolishness in wanting to believe in guak. Do you think that this is a wise move on my part?

@ND/BB, the 3 of us are wanting the guak train to explain.

Supporting evidence for TrPrado case:

1) accused of locking vote in p2 -> immediately switches vote
accused of deflecting accusations in p2 -> immediately defends himself from accusations by saying he was joking
accused of defending bo (somewhere between p 3-5 maybe) -> immediately votes bo
accused of being scum by me -> immediately accuses me of OMGUS to dismiss the value of the accusation
gets case against me brilliantly destroyed -> tries to dismiss my answer by encouraging Luc to make a case against me using that post

I could go on forever here. All in all, TrPrado has been modifying his behavior to please the masses and only scum do that. Also worth noting, he will try to dismiss the early interactions as joke posts, but those were not realty joke posts. If you have to clarify that a joke posts is a joke post to anyone other than a noob, it is not a joke post.

2) Tunneling on me starts as soon as I make my first vote on bo.

p5. voting me and pressuring me for voting bo.

Interesting that he accuses me of leaving when pressured when he did not even give me time to respond first. This is typical mafia, trying to make their target look scummier unfairly

p8. tr's really crappy read list only has two reads somewhat elaborated, his read on me and his read on Balki (more on that on point 3).

"guak - SLIGHT SLIGHT SCUM. Showed up and definitely has a presence, but that's based on just joking around, talking about how much we don't know, and endorsing a bo lynch. His follow on with Jeff is what really caught my eye. He also claims Jeff is buddying up to him, but I don't see Jeff seriously doing that."

A point worth noting here is something I learned from uclabb a couple of games back that is great for hunting scum. Mafia usually give their reads from personal reactions because they try too hard and it sounds forced (explanation from uclabb is on p.14 in MVIII and he caught ND as mafia that early, I remember because I was scum then and I thought ND had messed up with his reads list but could not put my finger around it until uclabb mentioned it. His evidence was so strong and compelling that I felt the need to bus ND after that). Thus, the phrasing 'I don't seriously see Jeff doing that' is scummy. And Tr uses this type of reads often where he includes himself as the star of the show even when he is talking about others. Another example is in p13 when he is criticizing Espi saying 'What you say doesn't really seem to fit with what I'm seeing. I haven't seen how phil is contradicting yourself. I haven't seen how ND and I are working together.'
Scum usually speak like this because they are more concerned about their own image than anything else. A townie would had just asked Espi why he was saying those things or pointed to evidence showing that Espi was misinterpreting thing or even just said Espi was misinterpreting behavior. The inclusion of his own vision of the game as a central element is very scummy.

At some point Tr unvoted for me, but the tunneling posts kept rolling in. He kept questioning me and my intentions for every post I made. And tainting me with every post he made.

Another example: p13. trprado says I am scummy because I was voting bo to occupy space while he was pressure voting bo. Well, for starters, pressure votes are completely meaningless when you say you intend to stop voting bo soon like Tr did. Second, I always park my vote early on and don't move it until I get a better read. Why I do this has nothing to do with alignment and all to do with playing style. What is truly interesting about this quote is that he also includes this gem
'That's not even the sole basis of my suspicions of guak, but it does embody them'

And yet he chooses not to elaborate despite going out of his way to include me in a post that was not about me. It is a common theme across TrPrado's posts that he has been constantly trying to damage my rep underhandedly. Thus, even with all the stupid vote changes Tr has done, he has actually been tunneling on me since the early game. He hasconsistently posted difamatory posts about me even when he is answering unrelated questions. Basically you ask him why the sky is blue and he answers because blablabla and on that note guak is scum because the sky is blue.

3) Possible association with Balki Bartokomus whom he sings praise about despite doing nothing in the game up until this point.
On p8 reads list: 'He's done some clear scumhunting and has tried to keep town in line and having them do the same.'

But Balki had done nothing at this point. His first real scumhunting effort came after this post and started the wagon against Espi. Also worth noting in the Balki-Tr interaction is that earlier Balki accuses DL of posting a lot and not saying much while not mentioning TrPrado who had posted even more and said even less.

Worth noting that Tr had already pushed on DL first, and that DL townslipped in p1. So it looks like Tr has been trying to go after the experienced players early on. First Dl, then me and ND. he stuck with me because he thought he had a better chance of lynching me, but clearly he is targeting experienced players first. Balki is taking the opposite approach, going after the noobs, and defending th experienced players. Oddly enough top two lynch targets are driven by each of them and each one of them has defended the other's target. It is like they are so hard to try to distance themselves from each other that they have adopted opposite approaches to the game.
Also of note is this - Balki returns Tr's favor from early game:

p12 from Balki's read list
'TrPrado (pages 8 and 9) - seems to be doing a sincere job at encouraging lurkers to begin to contribute, and posts the most detailed reads list we had seen to date. Follows that up with a detailed analysis of Phil.'

Note the reference to a 'detailed reads list' I encourage you all to check that read list in p8. And the reference to a 'detailed case on phil' is from p9 when Tr makes a really crappy null read on phil. Thus, Balki is singing praises on Tr's really crappy reads to try and make others think those reads were good.

By the way, just now Balki has said that he agrees with my suspicions of Tr, and that is Balki trying to distance himself from Tr now that he sees a risk of a mafia buddy lynch here.

4)Most of this lack of content has already been showcases through the examples above and his crappy read list, but worth noting is that someone (DL maybe?) questioned Tr's read on DL and he gave a hedging response that does not really say anything. He has done this repeatedly throughout the game in several occasions.

Conclusion: TrPrado is SCUM and there is a higher than 50% that Balki is his mafia buddy.

@guak …

"there is no way I can get a good read on anyone before at least a couple of flips have happened"

What do you consider a good read? There is apparently, in your own words, a 65% chance that TrPrado is scum and now I see 50%+ on Balki as his partner. Is that a good read? It seems as good as you're going to get on any day. How can you get such a good read here on TrPrado without seeing a flip, without any of that day-to-day evidence that you've made a living on in games past?

@TrPrado …

Could you post some more full reads? You've clearly got opinions on other people, and we have what, four hours or so left. Tons of time.

I also want to ask about your vote trends so far. According to Espi's thing on page 11, you threw your vote around way more than anyone else in that time. Why? Guak pointed out that you seem to be caving to pressure on that matter.

So I'll start with ND: So it looks like the biggest issue you seem to have is the way I handled my votes. Being the confusion about the bo vote, then going with it, then not going for my scumread when I took my vote off of bo. My reasoning for voting bo, as I stated, was to put pressure on him. He thinks it's dumb, but I stated why I though it was fine to vote someone who hasn't shown up. That there were others voting for him was simply a convenience. It put extra pressure on him. And that I was voting alongside my only scum read I think is irrelevant. I'm not going to avoid going with how I plan to go about pressuring and finding scum just because I think scum is in the general area. When he (bo) got here, he came out of the gate swinging with some detailed analysis. So I voted for someone else whose performance I wanted to see. I hesitated to take my vote off of him when he showed up because his performance was hardly the stuff of dreams. He seemed a little too focused on Espi and reliant on the work of others. The over-focus on Espi is what caught me, because his reasoning was because Espi is distracting us from finding others, which feels very contradictory. When I pressed him and he gave me his thoughts, he seemed to be just really new. That his vote on guak still goes unexplained is disturbing, but I guess it's better than his original mindset since it means he's branching out a bit. I hope that helps explain quite a bit.

Next is Jeff: I feel like you might have been high at the time you wrote your reads. You're leaving out quite a bit of performance. Also, a lot of what I said to ND should be enlightening to all the concerns you have about my behavior being "scummy."

guak: The claiming that it's "all just guesswork" alone is not what makes you scum. It's the WAY you're using it. You seem all too determined that SS and I are scummy, and that D1 lynch will be very enlightening if it's you. If that lynch (which right now has AT LEAST 1 town on board) goes through, it would still be at least partially based on guesswork. So what information exactly would we gain from lynching you if it's "all just guesswork?" At the same time, I think you've been very deflective with saying that over and over again every time someone starts coming in and pressuring you. We have quite a bit to work with here, so we've at least got a little more than guesswork. "Plus, it is D1, a bit early to accuse anyone of tunneling." I saw something in your case on me about me tunneling you, so here's that quote from you. I also really don't like people coming in and saying recently that "Oh, it's just same old guak" to excuse your behavior when at the start, everyone recognized you WEREN'T being the same old guak. So that excuse shouldn't be valid. And since I was the start of trying to get you killed, I would rather take the blame for myself IF you flip town (which I doubt).

BB: I wasn't trying to detract from the pressure on Espi, I just didn't agree with your case on him. Your case was built around the initial idea that Espi was scum, and very heavily relied on a single establishing post and a bunch of posts that you admitted wouldn't necessitate him being scum. I think bo and especially phil pulled in more and better evidence, and phil also pulled in very solid reasoning as to why even new town wouldn't act under the directions he pointed out. That doesn't mean I think Espi is calculated the way ND does, but I don't really think he's town.

Back on page sixteen, guys - "A FEW POINTS ON GUAK

1. Guak took way too long to stop jokeposting, especially regarding the annoying bo push, and he kept jokeposting when everyone else had stopped. Not helpful.

2. Has, despite being on for a decent amount of time, done little that's not sniping at bo or tunnelling on saladinsmith for the same reason continuously. I remember him being more invested and less unhelpful than this.

3. He thinks that SaladinSmith is scummy for being unable to read his great arguments over no-lynching, when the only post of the sort he made before SS started his argument was..."no-lynching is scummy guys."

@Guak: You raise some good points. I don't quite see the Balki-Ty connection could you elaborate any more on that possible connection?

To be fair I will take a re-read of Ty this afternoon before EOD.

@guak - I townslipped? Rereading pg1 I don't see it

Yoyo saying "finally the game's picked up" on PAGE TWENTY is disturbing.