Blargh, I'd rather forget that game. But hey, it taught me to get my fleets the hell out of the Black Sea as early as possible (and to never, ever trust TheHangedMan).

Just to comment on Yonni's two points. About the stabs, it could go either way. If you aren't really talkative with a neighbor and then start spamming him for no reason, something may be up. So long as you stay consistent and warn people of potential absences (good point) you should be fine.

And regarding Venice. As uclabb said, moving to Piedmont should always be an option for Italy. A move to Pie could serve just as well as a hold in gaining Austria's trust. I prefer to move to Tyrolia because it makes sure *everyone* on the board is talking to me. It shows Russia and Turkey that I'm down for potential future cooperation, forces France and England to talk to you about cooperation, and can be explained away to Germany and Austria as an attack on the other. It is an opportunity to help you shape events on the board and for a player with a playing style such as mine, I don't like to let such opportunities go to waste.

Fall moves are in.
I'll differ my own ramblings until later. Definitely a few interesting things to talk about.

Fuck it, it's interesting not to comment on it. At least briefly.

F GoB - Livonia is certainly a rarely seen move in F01. The perils of providing commentary to a press game without access to the press is that we clearly only have half the picture.
What I can say is that, if I was in this game, this is the kind of move that would send me rushing to the keyboard. I would be asking everyone on the board why that move happened. Comparing notes and trying to figure out what it could mean. Moves that are unconvential tactically often carry a lot of diplomatic weight.

Or are misorders.

Ok, I missed out on last spring moves, but I will try to give an analysis of this phase's moves and I will go country by country.

England: It's hard to think the bounce in Belgium was an agreed bounce with France. I think you should start to ask yourself some questions about what might come up to you. At this point, you should have a better feel of the French, German and Russian player. Maybe you've detected some lies in what they said to you so far? My advice would be to discuss with Eastern powers and see what they know about the situation west and from there you can have a clearer view of your neighbours' intentions. I think you should have no problem in convincing Russia of *not* building in StP this turn.

France: Strong first year all around, congrats! Of course it doesn't mean that everything will go fine after that, but you clearly are in a good spot. You have secured your position with the Iberian peninsula while you have no 3 vs France scenario upon you. Burgundy is not threatened at all, and you have a solid position around Belgium, so you have a good Diplomatic position regarding that. Now, you have a really important decision to make and that is: should you be going agressive right off the bat and build a threatening fleet in either Brest or Marseilles, or should you opt for the "wait and see" approach, be neutral with your builds and try to solidify your position? I read that your relation with Italy must be good because he's clearly not aiming to go your way and on the other side I think you have an angry England at you. They key here, IMO, is what your relation with Germany is all about.And only you (and Germany!) knows that.

Germany: Pretty astrong year as well. Germany is rarely a target in the first year and is more likely the one that can harm the others: Combined with other powers, he can either make France(Burgundy), England(Sealion) or Russia(bounce in Sweden)'s lifes hard, but it looks like you've opted for the neutral approach in this first year. Is it strategical? You don't know who you should ally with the most at this point? These are questions you should start asking yourself. Like the others, at this point, you can most probably start to feel with which player you are most comfortable with and who you have trouble trusting or discussing stuff. This should guide you into making the right decision for you.

Russia: Uh ho! Looks like you've misordered your fleet to Livonia! Tough luck! I'll start with analysing your position up north and yours south, as I always like to think Russia as 2 small countries communicating together, since it has 5 direct neighbours to deal with, while I think France is the most important country you have to deal with, even if he's the farest country.
North: Well, like I said, tough luck! But luckily, things look difficult in the west with France bouncing England out of Belgium, so you might find an ally in either England or Germany. You should definitely capitalize on that to come back in the north.
South: Since I can't see your discussions, it's hard to tell, but I think you either found a rock solid partner in Turkey since you let him the control of the (very) important Black Sea in the first year, or that Turkey will use it against you in an AT alliance to conquer you more easily. I clearly hope the former option is the one happening, but who knows! The last note I'd share with you is to beware people's reactions of a "possible" juggernaut alliance. More than often, people freak out (for no apparent reason) seeing a Juggernaut might be happening and you might suffer from it, but depending if you have driven your diplomacy swiftly and nicely, that shouldn't be a real problem. I just thought I'd give you something to chew on while thinking about what you should build.

Turkey: Good first year for you there. Getting control over the black sea is a *really* important diplomatic AND tactical tool you have in your hand right now. You should definitely use it as a leverage in your discussions with others­. I think in the next year, you'll definitely have to consider a Lepanto might come your way, depending on Italy's build, so beware, but at the same time, you are well seated right now. At this point, you should start to ask yourself how you could continue to grow without harm. The key for you there is to discuss a lot with western powers and see how they could help you in achieving a better position, since you could be a good "asset" to them in the later stages of the game.

Austria: Again, securing two builds as Austria is, IMHO, the most important thing to do in the first year with Austria. Just looking at the board shows that you'Ve driven nicely your diplomacy, so congrats on that. No one's in Galicia, Italy respected your border with him, so it's all good! Now, clearly you should ask yourself what are your relations with Russia at this point­. One bounce is "ok", but two bounces should be considered as "suspect". Now, Italy is all set to open in a Lepanto, but at the same time, the questions you'll have to ask yourself for this round is whether you think you can have Italy Lepanto against Turkey, while attacking Russia. What would be the aftermath of a Lepanto opening. The last thing you want to see, is Turkey and Russia allying together, obviously. Now, how can you do that? Turkey will clearly talk about his fleet in the Black Sea, now ask yourself how this strategic unit can help you (or not) in the future.

Italy: It looks like you've opted for the neutral Lepanto opening. What you should do all depends on what strong relations you have built with your neighbours, and which one you think is the most rock solid to build on. While you think on that aspect, I'll give you some other questions to chew on. The lepanto rarely brings a 5th unit to Italy before 1903-1904, and is bound to failure sometimes. Are you comfortable with that? Your answer lies within: what is your relation with Austria and what you think of France's growth in the west. In some ways, you should try and understand what's gonna happen West and see if that is a plan that is interesting to you, or if not. In the short-mid term, your key here is Greece or Marseilles, if you see an opening.

Have a good round here!

I just want to stress that by far the most important phase so far in this game is the upcoming one: builds. Builds are huge. Don't neglect your negotiation this phase.

Lecture 3
Analysis of 1901

So, the fall turned out to be much more interesting with the spring. Here is how I see everything stacking up.

The West

#1 France. Grade: B+
Space: France controls MAO with no enemy fleets within striking distance of French waters. Burgundy is threatened, but not overly so.
Time: 2 successful moves, though A Spain and F Portugal will need some time to shift to more practical locations. You weren't able to this time, but I prefer to take Spain with a fleet whenever possible. The bounce in Bel I highly suspect was arranged.
Material: 2 SC's is the best position France can be at realistically in 1901.
First off, don't take the grade as a slight. I'm very tough on giving out A's. You're in a great position since you have two builds and the flexibility to move east or west at your leisure. This gives you options diplomatically that you should pursue. As I mentioned before, I suspect the bounce in Bel was arranged 1) to avoid putting you as a leader and 2) to allow more time for negotiations. It will eventually become a 2 vs 1 around Belgium, and time will tell on which side you'll end up. Of course, there is the possibility for a triple, but that seems to have gone out of fashion lately.

#2 Germany Grade: B
Space: controlling Ruhr is key, opening up Munich for the build and adding pressure to Belgium
Time: All moves succeeded. Den held when I would have bounced Russia out, but its nice to make friends every once in a while.
Material: Two builds. Standard for Germany
You're in a pretty safe position at this point. The north is open which is both a risk for you and an opportunity, depending upon how you look at it. The power dynamics will be altered quite a bit with Russia out of the equation up north. The situation in Belgium looks stable for you, but depending upon the reasoning for the bounce, it could be dangerous as well.

#3 England Grade: B
Space: You have control of the North Sea which is standard for England. A fleet in Norway works just as well as an army at this point
Time: 1 of 2 moves successful. The bounce worked just fine in delaying French expansion, so I would view that as a success
Material: England shouldn't expect more than one build.
It all centers upon the reasons for the bounce. Was it premeditated? Belgium is a key center that England should look to get usually in this type of scenario, but Russia's absence in Sweden means there is lots of room for expansion elsewhere. Conventional wisdom says fleet build, but I could give a strong argument for an army build at this point.

^^Whoops, wasn't finished with that. Gimme a little bit to write up the rest.

Bump for my star.

The East

#1 Austria, Grade: B+
Space: While Galicia isn't solidly yours, you've kept it out of Russian hands. The fleet in Greece means that you will have a solid say on who gets to enter the Aegean.
Time: 2 of three moves succeeded. The bounce in Gal was unfortunate, as it could have given you a much stronger position. Depending upon who said what, there could be a heated discussion going on now between you and Russia. You may have agreed upon the bounce, or just prevented a stab.
Material: Two SC's is about as good as Austria could hope for.
Moving forward I don't like that Italian army sitting in Venice, as it threatens your backfield. Russia's build will tell if he's going to abandon the North or not. If he does choose to abandon the north, that doesn't spell good news for you, but I'm hopeful for you. Italy is the rouge agent in this scenario

#2 Russia, Grade: B-
Space: While you may not control the Black Sea or have a unit in Sweden, I think you're in a good position. You have an army in Rumania (always a plus) and got it there without supporting it, which means your relationships with your neighbors must be good.
Time: A wasted move with the fleet up north, but there could be positives to removing yourself from Sweden next spring. But what I really like is what you did with the fleet in the south. Instead of wasting a turn bouncing, you supported Turkey there and presented yourself with lots of opportunities, mainly cementing Turkey into an alliance with you (or at least in the minds of Austria and Italy). Whether Gal was a bounce or an attack, I can't say.
Material: One build is usually not a good sign for Russia, but I think there are some merits in not growing too strong too fast.
Overall, there are a lot of questions you should be asking yourself this year. First, what to do with the fleet in the north? Do you sit in St. Petes and hope people ignore you? Do you try to gain Sweden with the help of an ally? Or do you sell yourself off as a mercenary for the year to gain goodwill? Each choice has its merits and its negatives, and this is something to talk with your TA. The second focus should be in regards to Gal. If it was a bounce, how does your relationship with Austria evolve from here? If it was a failed invasion, how can you create an avenue for success? And the third and final focus should be with Turkey. You alone know why you supported him there, but Turkey's reaction to it will be telling, because he is in fact your biggest threat at the moment.

#3 Italy, Grade: B-
Space: Control of the Ionian is always good. I like the convoy over moving the fleet there - it offers better long term security.
Time: 1 for 1 in moves, but another wasted potential for that army.
Material: 1 build, which is to be expected for Italy.
Now by no means is your position bad. You're in fact well off and probably safer than both Russia and Austria right now. But why not are you on top of the list then? First off, because Italy should almost never be on top of the power list after year 1, but also its because of that army in Venice...holding for both seasons is something I don't agree with. Holding for the spring allowed for you to test how much Austria trusted you (by seeing whether he moved to Trieste or not), but keeping that army there will only strain your relationship with him moving into the future. In my opinion it would be much better if you used it as a mercenary unit to help either France or Germany, depending upon how the West shakes down.

#4 Turkey, Grade: C
Space: Unless you're attacking Russia, this is an awful position to be in. Your fleet is in the Black Sea and you're pretty much locked there for the foreseeable future, which greatly diminishes 1) the likelihood you'll hold on to Bul and 2) your ability to effectively combat a Lepanto should it come.
Time: Two holds and a move succeeded that I don't think was meant to succeed.
Material: one build. Standard for Turkey.
Overall its a rough position. Whether you like it or not, people will think that you're allied with Russia because 1) you didn't bounce him in Rum and 2) the support to Black Sea. Complicating this is the fact that the way your units are positioned, the *best* thing you can do is attack Russia. This will, however, lead to Austria and Italy nipping at your rear very quickly. So you, my friend, are in a quandary.

So that's it for the overall situation for the countries. This next year is going to be the most exciting one in the game, where you see who really is your friend. It all depends upon the builds!

A slight correction, GF. Bulgaria supported Ionian to Greece. It didn't hold.

And this, class, is a good example of why using the big map is a good idea when there are holds on the board.

Well that changes quite a bit now, doesn't it.

bump for star as well

Bumping so I can spot it easier

Thanks to the professors for excellent commentary so far.

@all the students, I know these posts are lengthy but I hope you are taking the time to read them all, they will really help you see how some of the best players around analyze the board and what they see as critical, those are the things you really want to try and pick up on. If there's something in here you don't understand make sure to ask your TA's.

Some very interesting builds. I'll comment more on it later. Looks like we're in for some naval wars

Alright, so since no one else has commented on the builds, I'll get to it. Sorry I've been a bit late on this one.

Lecture 4
How to read builds

So the builds by England, Russia, Italy, and Turkey were all pretty much to be expected. I'll be brief on why these were good builds.

England - a safe build allowing you to maintain a good defense. Its good that your army is still on the island, else you'd be looking much more vulnerable.

Russia - a sensible build, which still gives you the opportunity to invest more heavily in the north without tipping your hand. It is something to threaten the western powers with, since things look favorable to the south.

Italy - Standard build for a vanilla lepanto. Things are looking a bit more interesting than you'd have planned though.

Turkey - Predictable build. You still have the option of moving north against Russia, but can more easily swing about and advance in the Med now.

But on to our troublesome ones.

Austria - What on earth made you decide to do a fleet build. That should be the question on every eastern power's mind right now. It could mean a very, very strong lepanto is going on (one which is setting up for a long Italian convoy while keeping F Greece where it is) or a surprising attack on Italy. You're set up to move either way at will, and with Turkey in better position to tear russia apart than move against you, I'd say you have some time to kill and move west, if you so choose. Italy may just regret leaving that army there if that was the primer for these builds.

Franco-German fleets
Well now, England must be sweating quite a bit. This has all the air of a Sealion operation. However, looks are not everything, and England can still do some serious diploming to get things going his way. There are several things to consider here.

First off, is Germany's build offensive or defensive? Germany frequently will build a fleet to protect against an English stab (by placing them in Hel and Ska, for example) rather than prime himself to move against England. Franco-German relations must also be taken into account, since France's dual fleet build has left him rather vulnerable to a Blitz. Finally, Russia has a fleet and two armies which can either help or hinder the German on the eastern front. The biggest question on my mind here is the future of Scandinavia. Who has promised what to whom? Does Germany have eyes on it and built the fleet there? Will Germany help England into Sweden in return for support of an attack against France? Will England goad Russia into attacking Germany in return for a NAP and Sweden? Any of these realities are possible, and of all the positions on the board, I like the German's best because he can make or break the other two Western countries right now.

France, however, is in a much more...difficult position. He has clearly indicated that he will be attacking either Italy or England. The question is, whom? To that, there is no clear answer. To get a better clue, in this case, we look to German and Austrian builds. Both build a fleet, which while more normal for Germany, is somewhat curious for Austria. While Germany's fleet build could plausibly be defensive, Austria's can *only* be offensive. I'll let my line of thinking stop there, so you can speculate whom Austria has set his eyes on.

There is, of course, the third possibility that a Western triple has formed. Germany builds the second fleet to secure the Baltic and help destroy the Russian fleet, England claims Belgium, and France swings into the Med with three fleets, coupled by infighting between RT and IA. It could be the perfect storm. The problem with perfect storms though is that they rarely happen.

So in sum, the two traditionally naval powers are in hot water right now, England and Italy. Russia and Germany have complete freedom in their decision making and can make or break other powers, while Austria and France are a bit more constrained in their choices. France, in particular, has made himself vulnerable with the dual fleet build, though his position (as that of any France) can be easily defended with two armies.

Good build commentary GF. I had this written last Friday but forgot to post it before I left work.

As we enter 1902, the board and your discussions are going to head towards building strong and potentially long lasting alliances. There are many ways to try to convince people to ally with you and everyone has to figure out what works best for them so I think I’d like to leave that discussion for later. However, I think an important aspect to keep in mind is that the nature of your alliance is being set early on. Specifically, how you coordinate your moves with each other.

It was pointed out earlier that changing the volume of your press is often an alarm to someone that you’re looking to stab. Same can be said about the tone of your messages. For instance, if you spend the first few years divulging all of your moves to your ally but become reluctant to in the later years, they are certainly going to become suspicious. Dealing with this takes a nuanced approach that I’m still trying to work out. However, as I think controlling the flow of information is *very* powerful tool strategically, I’d like to share my thoughts on it. Perhaps some of the other professors have their own thoughts on the matter that they can share.

Divulging information voluntarily is often a great way to build trust in an alliance. Sharing your moves with your ally and then following through can do wonders for convincing them of your merit. However, the trick is to find a way to divulge the bare minimum without making yourself look cagey. In the ideal scenario, your partner is telling you exactly what their moves are and you are providing them with only vague and nebulous moves. This will allow you to stab them easier and make your run for a solo or, at the very least, keep them at a comfortable arms length away.

I think the best way to do this is to set the tone right off the bat. Discuss only your supports/cuts that affect your partner directly. If pressed about your moves on an unrelated front you can use unspecific phrases such as “I’m going to put pressure on Austria,” or “I’m looking to get my fleets involved in the North.” As long as they aren’t outright lies, you can give the appearance of open and transparent communication while, in fact, withholding valuable information. On the other hand, when discussing their moves, you want them to divulge as much as possible. Once they tell you what they’re doing, they’ll be reluctant to move differently at the risk of looking like a liar. One good way to mine for information is to discuss tactics with them. Suggest several moves and spark a discussion as to what will work. Often, from these talks, you’ll be able to find out exactly what they’re doing. Keep in mind that you’re not the only person trying to do this. Your partner might try press you quite hard for information about units that are irrelevant to him. You can always fall back on suggesting that it’s in both of your best interests to keep discussions to the appropriate units. You may lose a chance to learn about your ally but at least you can keep your plans safe.

The scenarios in the previous paragraph are obviously a little over simplified and contrived. However, the point I’m trying to drive home is that you have to be aware of setting the tone from the beginning of the alliance. If you create the desired level of discourse (correct term?) right off the bat, it will be easiest to keep the tone going forward. Try different strategies and learn what works for you because it will be invaluable skill for playing Diplomacy.

This year’s song goes out to Turkey.
Beck – “One Foot in the Grave”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rx-rFMXJvIM

Sorry everyone, had a busy weekend here! Fortunately, I see my fellow colleagues have both posted interesting post. Way to go!

I'll comment later, but several countries (I have three in mind) should be hearing this right now

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suUxA3sS2zg

I found this turn especially interesting so I'm going to make some comments on a few of the moves and positions.

England: You almost never see England able to take Sweden unopposed in the beginning of the game. Russia has no northern presence and your move out of Norway sends a crystal clear message to Russia that you are not a threat he has to worry about. This turn was not great to you though. France appears to have made his choice of who to attack with his fleets and Germany seems to be on board with his plan. Your move to Ska saved you a lot of trouble and gives you a lot of negotiating room. Even if France and Germany continue to move against you they are in for a difficult fight, you have an army on the island and your fleets are in good position, you can also probably talk Russia into helping oyu out with that fleet in the Gulf because Russia certainly doesn't want his friendly northern neighbor being overrun when he's invading Turkey.

France: You appear to be moving against England, though it could still be a setup for an anti Italian move. I'm not going to comment on your moves much, I will leave that to the other professors, what I want to talk about is Picardly. "The army at Picardy hold." is the order you gave Picardy. Unless you are near the end of the game you should never be holding a unit. A hold does nothing for you. If you hold it means you feel you didn't have any other options for that unit. When that's the case you need to move it to a location that has more options or use it for something else. It appears you and Germany are amiable at the moment, I would have much preferred you support Germany into Belgium then simply hold.

Germany: I'm pretty sure I know what you were hoping to accomplish with the move to Ska, and I don't really like the move. The reason I didn't like it was because it was predictable. When you're making a move that will put you in position to take another countries supply centers you don't want to make a move that is going to be easy for them to block. What I mean by this is that, if you had used the same moves, except replacing the move from Kiel to Denmark with a move to the Baltic Sea you would be taking Sweden next turn. Sure Russia could have moved to the Baltic Sea blocking you move, but then you could have simply told England that you knew Russia was moving against you and needed to block him. Another move I wouldn't have minded would have been moving Keil to Hel. This would have made you a lot more valuable to France as an ally against England. Right now England has to be suspicious of your moves, but you're not in a good position to take centers if you attack him with France. On the other side of that, you're not in a good position to help England against France. So right now you are in a difficult negotiating position. Try and figure out a way to become more valuable to someone else as an ally quickly.

Russia: The move to the Ukraine lets you support Rumania and gives you a much stronger position in the south. I love the move to Armenia with the fleet because it forces Turkey to play a guessing game with you. That gives you the chance to take either the Black Sea or Ankara depending on how everyone moves. England is completely non-threatening to you in the north and you have a fleet up north that can be beyond valuable to either England or Germany, make sure you get something out of that fleet. You can stall or speed up an invasion of either England or Germany right now so make sure to figure out with your TA what is going to help you the most.

Austria: Your moves this turn were my favorite on the board. You are not really fighting anyone at the moment, but you're not at peace with anyone either. That's the best state to be in because everyone around you wants to be the person you ally with, and that gives you a lot of diplomatic leeway. At the moment you can take Venice if you want it, and become Turkey's best friend and you can work with either Turkey or Russia on the Rumania/Bulgaria border. You and Russia seem to have a dmz agreement in Galicia so you have all the options in the world right now.

Turkey: Clearly you thought Russia was your ally if you were planning on giving up the Black Sea. You need to find an ally, and quickly. Turkey is known for being the most easily defended country in the game, but right now your units are badly out of position. Russia has around a 50/50 shot of taking either the Black Sea or Ankara depending on what you decide to defend. Find some way to talk either Austria or Italy over to your side so you can focus on repelling Russia. No one country can break though Turkey so find some way to make sure only one country ends up trying.

Italy: I can't decide if I like your position or not. Right now your future depends a lot on Austria's choice next turn. You are in a good position to fight Turkey with Austria's help, but you're also in a decent position to fight Austria with Turkey's help. Regardless of what you end up doing make sure you do not forget about Russia. He can help you against either of your neighbors or possibly even both. What I'd like another professor to comment on is your move to Apu for a convoy set up. This move could be a setup against either Austria or Turkey, though probably Turkey. I'm not overly familiar with Italy so would another professor comment on the pro's/con's of leaving an army in Tunis long term?

Please keep in mind that without reading the press between countries I am just guessing at the alliances and options I mentioned in my comments.

Here is what I thought was noteworthy about this past turn. It just so happens that this time I have something to say to about most powers, but in general this may not be true, and i encourage all players to look at all of the points (not just for my posts, but for all of the professors' comments) as the concepts are generally applicable. The theme this turn is that you want your units to do as much for you as possible, not just by ordering them to make some move, but by ordering moves that handle many contingencies, not just the one that you are hoping for.

1. We'll start with Turkey. It appears as if you were expecting support from Russia of Bulgaria to Serbia. Even if you got that support, the chance of the move succeeding was nearly zero, as it was highly unlikely that Serbia would be unsupported. Even if that move succeeded, you were essentially certain to lose Serbia in the fall and lose your progress. And that's not all! You also were leaving Bulgaria undefended and are very lucky that Austria didn't support some move on Bulgaria. When it comes down to it, your moves may as well have been all holds. That never is a good sign. I encourage you to talk to your TA a bit about tactics more in these coming turns. Better move choices for those three units (assuming you thought Russia was supporting you to Serbia) could have been:
Bulgaria -> Serbia
Const -> Bulgara S by Black Sea
OR
Bulgaria -> Serbia
Constantinople -> Ankara
Black Sea -> Constantinople

In the first, you are actually defending Bulgaria, not to mention guaranteeing that your move to Bulgaria succeeds if the move to Serbia succeeds. In the second, you are at least getting your fleet into a flexible spot in Constantinople, which could help push Italy against Austria. The reason for this is that the best way to defend against overwhelming numbers is to create an imbalance in power between those who are attacking you. If it was clear that Italy had no builds coming from Turkey, he would be much more inclined to move on an Austria who already built a second fleet, which is, at least when spun the right way, a potential warning sign.

2. jmo already briefly touched on this, but Germany made what is essentially the exact same mistake. The move to Skaggerack has a high probability of bouncing. So why move Kiel to Denmark? A move to Baltic Sea or, even better in my opinion, Heligoland are simply objectively better choices. A lot of the professors have been saying to never hold. To extend that (and be less concise), you should never make moves that have a high probability of becoming virtual holds when you have other options.

3. England, you also sort of made this mistake. In my eyes, your moves are an ok choice, but certainly not the ones I would have made. The move to Skaggerack had a high probability of bouncing (in fact, you may have even been hoping for a bounce), so moving to North Sea from London isn't necessarily the best choice. In fact, it probably isn't even the best way to defend North Sea. The chance of Germany moving to North Sea was minuscule (think about why), but the chance of France moving to English Channel was very very high. If you knew that France was moving there, you should definitely have bounced him, and if you didn't you better have asked him about it so that he has already lied to you. A big part of success in diplomacy is making people's lies and stabs have to come early before the rewards are clear. This makes them much less common.

4. France, four of your five moves were strong, so there isn't much to say there. Having fleets in Spain and MAO is really powerful as you can move highly effectively on both Italy and England, and an army in Gascony is perhaps the best defensive spot for an army on the entire board. The (slight) mistake came with Picardy. jmo wanted you to have supported Germany in, which is of course better than holding (everything is better than holding), but when it comes down to it, that is just a disguised hold. I imagine that you didn't want to move to Burgundy for some reason, perhaps you have a DMZ there, perhaps you wanted to have an army available to be convoyed into England in the fall, whatever. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't defend Burgundy, especially with Picardy sitting there with nothing to do. How could you do that? Tell Germany you are moving to Belgium! You should have been fully aware that Germany was supporting himself in, so that couldn't hurt him, and he couldn't get mad at you as as long as he did what he said, it wouldn't affect him. On the other hand, you are now making it so that if he got greedy and went for Burgundy, he no longer would have Belgium guaranteed, and so he would have had no temptation to go there in the first place. Burgundy = defended.

5. Italy, you also missed a defensive move. jmo mentioned above that your move to Apulia makes little sense to him, and for good reason: It doesn't make a lot of sense. You already have an army in Tunis waiting to be convoyed; you don't need Apulia as well. Instead, you would have been much better off arranging a bounce with Austria in Trieste. He could absolutely afford it, especially since he (and hopefully you) knew that Russia was on board for moving on Turkey. And even if Austria wasn't thrilled about it, this would have taken away Austria's ability to stab you effectively, and you wouldn't be in the uncomfortable position you are now.

Sorry Austria and Russia, I don't have anything specific for you, so I think I will end here.

Hi all, been a while since I've been a presence around here. My final year of school has been busy, but I thought I'd drop by and check out the forum. To make a long story short, since people (uclabb primarily) posted several wonderful questions to the last SoW I was proffing and made it really enjoyable, I'd like to do the same upon occasion. I took some time to look at the commentary and the board up to this point and want to as the professoral group the following:

1) In 1901, France bounced with Germany in Burgundy. I agree with uclabb that this was agreed upon as soon as I saw it and the fall moves, in my mind, confirmed that. Most of the professors felt that this bounce was perfectly fine and a quality defensive move. When you play Germany, is this a move you attempt to perform with France? Why? Is the same true when you play France? Also, most bounces tend to be more of a sacrifice for one player than for another. Who does this bounce hurt more, if it is an unequal trade?

2) I didn't see anyone comment on the Russian support for Turkey to the BLA. Is there a benefit for Russia in having the Turk there?

3) France build double-fleets while Germany built a fleet and an army. Since the two of them are working together, is this the best pair of builds? What would you have done differently, if anything, from the German standpoint? What are the benefits and drawbacks to a double-fleet build like France had and do the benefits outweigh the risks?

4) In S02, three players spent a good portion of their resources in large-scale bouncing. This sort of thing usually indicates some poor planning on the part of a player. Given the following bounce sets, rank these from least damaging to most damaging and indicate why: (a) England's F Lon-NTH/F NTH-SKA, (b) Germany's F Kie-Den/F Den-SKA, (c) Russia's A Rum-Bul and (d) Turkey's A Con-Bul/F BLA-Con

Wow, before I go through this yet again interesting 1902 year, I will answer briefly Tru Ninja's questions.

1) There are much more gains for France with an agreed upon bounce in Burgundy in spring 1901, and this for several reasons. First, France has a guaranty there are no 3 vs France scenario coming up his way like I explained in an earlier post. It also give him the chance to have more diplomatic options over Belgium in A01, since he can do exactly what France did this game, to have an army in Picardy and have a discussion with England and Germany about who should hold Belgium. In either case, he'll have a friend on board, since he can either go for the bounce if he wants to ally with Germany, have England take it with a fleet, or even better, an army so he has his confidence against Germany, or he can even arrange something with the both of them (a WT), and have the both of them happy with him and gain trust out of it. Being Germany, I think it makes him lose a lot of options not being in Ruhr in 1901 for the reasons I mentioned earlier. The only reason I think having an agreed upon bounce in Burgundy, is to gain trust from France, if he has the feeling he's his ally, or if, for example, there's a 3 vs France scenario shaping up with Italy and England, and Germany arranges an agreed upon bounce to gain trust from 3 of their neighbours, Italy and England because they will obviously see he's "going" for the WT, but France has no choice but to tryust him since the bounce was agreed. Again, I don't think this would be a good strategy being Germany, as it would be easy for France to say to England and Italy: I had an agreed upon bounce in Burgundy with Germany, so he's not on your side... And anyways, France has to count on Germany if England and Italy open anti-french. For those reasons, I find France is advantaged with a Burgundy bounce. Again, it all depends if Germany feels he's compatible more with France than England. A bounce can "still" be good for Germany, but you clearly have to look deeper into your press with others to read what's going on. What I'm saying here is pure speculation, theory, and clearly not practice.

2) I find there is absolutely no viable reason, IMO, for Russia to have the Turk in the Black Sea, and especially support him into it. The only reason I see it would be good for him, is if Russia really has doubts about Austria's sincerity and wants to shake up things in the Balkans and have Austria be more sincere to Russia if he doesn't want to see Turkey there. Again, to understand and see if these are good reasons, I would need to see Russia's press to see if these were good reasons. Were I him, if I wanted to shake up things, I wouldn't have supported him there, but I would have supported Ukraine to to Rumania with Sev, and tell Austria that I didn't trust him (if it's the case of course).

3) Like I said in a previous post, being Germany, the double fleets build is the best build I can see being Germany, as I know France will piss off both England and Italy and for that, the fleet in Kiel and army in Berlin is the best build there was. Although, I don't agree that the move to Ska and Kiel to Denmark was the best move there was. Again, it all depends on press with Russia, England and France, but from a "gunboat" perspective, I know I would have sent Kiel to Helgoland Bight.
Regarding the benefits vs risks, first I'd say that it is always your best bet to secure an alliance with someone and gain as much trust as you can with one player. What I didn't like, here, is the aftermath that came with it, and I will explain it more in my next post regarding A02 moves, but basically, France is stuck a bit right now, because of Germany's diplomacy. More after!

4) In order: B) Clearly the most damaging, C) and D) Equally, A) is actually a pretty good bounce as England guessed well.
__________________________________________________________________

As I said, really interesting year yet again, and we see again some switches in alliances. I like the rating part and I will do the same. For this phase, the two witches (E and T) are my favorite, followed with Russia

Turkey: A. From my point of view, you were the most succesful this turn and for a lot of reasons: Austria invading Italy while you convinced Russia of moving back to where he was is really great. 'You now know your neighbours will have difficulty to interact with each other. Clearly well done and now you can play along those lines. The only thing I would have liked to see you try is to convince Italy, if you trusted him, to convoy in Greecewith Aegean support, because clearly he couldn't grab any SCs out of you. This is all it would have been left to have a perfect round IMHO, as Italy would have wanted to be your friend as well, but again, this is not really damaging to you, and your position now equals what it could have been may you had convinced Italy of convoying to Greece supported. I'll leave you with some questions to ask yourself right now: You are now in a good position, but how will you use it further? In the long term, what is more benefical for you: a juggernaut, an alliance with Austria, or convincing Italy of working with you now that he's weakened. If you have trouble guessing what, discuss with your TA, as this is a really important timing for you right now. Basically, no one really wants to see Turkey grow in the east as his growth is the most linear of all powers due to his position.

England: A-. As I see it, you did really well with convincing Russia of allying with you. You now have a rock solid 2 builds to give your neighbours some thoughts to think about. Controlling Scandinavia in 2 years is really a great accomplishment, but yet, I can't give you a better grade and I guess you expected it because France clearly was going at you, but you now have solid builds tocounter France and make him think twice before continuing the assault on you. If you knew Russia would not support Germany into Sweden, I don't know if it would have been better to send Yorkshire bouncing in London, and keep an army to defend yourself in the mainland, and have 3 possible spots to build in and discuss with your neighbours about what to do, while sending London to North Sea? To me, it sounded clear that Denmark and Ech were not heading towards North Sea for a bounce. But again, great turn, your diplomacy with Russia obviously made the difference.

Russia: A-. Well done, really great thinking again. You now have England clearly as your partner since you headed into Baltic Sea and I think the only way this could have been better is if Germany promised to support your fleet in Sweden... But again, you most probably knew better than an outsider that Denmark's support would have been but by the support, so really well done. If you feel comfortable discussing with England, you clearly are in a Cadillac right now in the north. Down south, it clearly was well done as well. Maybe you knew Austria was going to attack Italy? Right now, you have a Turkey saying: Pheewww! Thanks Russia, and mostly have Austria at your mercy if you want to. Now, I think the cards are clearer for you there, especially with Turkey moving out of the BLA, but again, the question you should ask yourself right now is mostly in the mid-long term: How can you grow without having to fear too much about England and Turkey growing out of your alliance with them (may you choose them, of course)?

More to come... Job's calling.

I'll get to a proper response to Tru and this turn later, but the quick remarks are going to be that France and England are towards the top of my list, with Austria close behind. Russia and Turkey a bit further behind, and Italy and Germany rounding out the bottom (not in exactly that order)

In (almost) every game, there are movers and there are pawns. The pawns are quickly used and then discarded, and the players are the ones who think outside the box, and show lots of cunning. I see that killer instinct in France, Austria, and to some extent Russia at this moment.

Note that France has not *actually* committed to attacking England. His move to Burgundy was a hedge and that will put him at the top of my ranking for this season

I really liked slyster's response to those questions and for the most part, agree with them (with maybe a slight difference in #4). I'll wait to see how the other profs answer my questions.

Thanks Tru! I'm now back home, and have time for some commentaries about A02 with the four remaining powers I haven't described:

France: B. This turn was expected but you bring here some surprise with the supported attack against Burgundy. I'll try to analyse your move based on different possibilities since I don't know what made you choose to attack Burgundy this way. I will then put some possible aftermaths that *could* happen depending on the scenario it was. As the move against England was expected, I'll only focus on the Burgundy move.
A) You had it agreed with Germany. In some cases, it could have totally been agreed with Germany within your talks and there were no surprises to Germany about it. Sometimes, people can do that kind of strategy to create confusion over the board and have your closer neighbours think you had a conflict, somehow with Germany. I doubt it is the case, but if it is that scenario, it is truly golden that you succeeded in doing that.
Aftermath: You can fool either Germany or England, and you can have some talks with England regarding his builds.

B) You were doubting Germany's words. Maybe you thought he was not sincere with you and you though he had a deal with England against you? I think this case is most likely and I see well England convincing you last turn that you had to consider that possibility and he might have made you doubted on that. If that is the case, well done England, once again!
Aftermath: You risk having Germany switch against you with that move. He could go and try to ally back with England, even if it's a real small possibility. Germany is really surrounded right now and in a tough spot, so I think he has no choice but to trust you, especially with that English army in Denmark, but who knows.
*Side note: I don't know what were your discussions with your TA *or* with Germany regarding that move, but here's some ways you could have done it to make your move look acceptable. *If* you doubted Germany's words, you could have told him, straight away: "Look, I fear you might go in Burgundy this turn and for this reason, I will make sure no one gets there."
Sometimes, it is good to even tell others you're going against them before move goes, because most of the time, even if they're being attacked, they know you have been sincere with them and I can tell that every lie someone does about a move, the more trust he will lose in that person's mind.
Here are some alternatives you could have considered, since I consider a supported attack on Burgundy to be quite agressive:
A) A.Pic-Bur, A. Gas-Bur (no signs of agression, just peace!)
B) A Gas-Burgundy, A Pic-Belgium (breaking a possible support from Belgium while covering Burgundy, and you could have told Germany about that, since he could have covered Holland with Ruhr, while sending Belgium toBurgundy for some other juicy bounces! (like there wasn't enough bounces in this game!)

Here's some things to chew on, while you discuss germany's retreat and/or build, and England's builds: Now is the time to think mid-long term. Do you think an attack over England is viable? Is Germany a better target right now? Is a Western Triple still possible? And most importantly, if you fetch a deal with England, how will the two of you discuss a possible retreat from yourself?

Austria: C+. I'm not a fan of what you did this turn, and for several reasons. Most of the time, an Austria being friendly with both Russia and Turkey (so going against Italy) usually ends up in a Jugger up your back (FTR- Note that Austria attacking Italy usually leads to that, but not necesserily Italy attacking Austria). While on 6 SCs, I don't see your strategy being viable mid-long term. Obviously, Turkey and/or Russia must have tricked you in making you think that the two of them were set to fight against one another, and I don't blame you for that. The both of them most probably played rteally well in making you believe that and you were right that it all looked like they were gonna go against one another. So, basically, shit happens, but here's your situation right now: Italy will look to come back, of course, and has most probably lost a lot of trust in you, especially after looking that he was set to convoy your army into Bulgaria (I really don't understand that move). That's a stab and depending on his character, he will either look for revenge, or either go and ask you to retreat to gain back a bit of confidence.

Here is something to think about for next turn: Yes, you are one of the biggest power and your strenght resides in the fact that Austria is a hard nut to crack. So, how can you use that fact on your side? How can you convince (back) Turkey and/or Russia to ally with you? Time to discuss (and a lot) with your TA this round!!

While I tried to see who between Germany and Italy have the best move/position right now, I just oculdn't think of anything, really, and decided to have them on the same step for this turn:

Germany: D. Ouch! What a mess! What happened this turn! Last turn, you had all the possibility ion the world, and now, you end up with a Russian fleet dangerously around you, England convoyed in your lands, and France going against Burgundy. Obviously, this turn went bad for you, but here are some things that could have made it look better:
Sending Kiel to Heligoland Bight in S02. This, my friend, would have opened you a lot of possibilities, and there was no way taht France would have gone into Burgundy if you were an important asset in a possible English invasion. Now, about Russia, I don'T know what went wrong in your discussions with him regarding Sweden, and I think it ended up in you asking him to support you into Sweden? If that is the case, I am not surprised to see Russia in Baltic. Russia clearly had no gain in supporting you to Sweden, and I think the best bet you could have done with him would have been to tell Russia you would support his fleet into Sweden. This way, it would have: made it impossible for England to take Denmark (Russia breaking support in Sweden), and would have make you gain diplomatic considerations with Russia. Your other mistake this turn was to not support Denmark. There indeed was an opportunity for England to invade Denmark, and you were only depending on Russia's will to keep Denmark. I think you'll need to discuss much with your TA this turn, as I think your situation is reversible, but needs to be done quickly!

For this turn, I'd say: Think about others and put yourself in their shoes. Tell yourself: Were I England, Were I Russia, Were I France, What would I like to hear from Germany at this point? If you try to look at their benefits and see how you can fit there and help you comeback, I think it is the best thing you can do this turn.

Italy: D. Obviously, Austria stabbed you. Now, I think what you have to ask yourself is how you could have seen this stab coming. Looking a t your oders, it looked obvious to me that the two of you planned a big convoy from Trieste to Bulgaria, with Greece and Serbia as support of that convoy. You could have seen that stab coming with these assumptions. First, this plan was not good for your growth from a tactical perspective.
Here's some things that you could have considered, instead:
A) Serbia could have gone to Bulgaria with Greece support and Aegean support. If you really really wanted him to break Bulgaria, because Eastern Med obviously would have covered Smyrna, so your support would have been gone, then you could have sent Ionian to Adriatic (to break possible support) and send your army to cover Venice.
B) While discussing with your TA, you could have seen it was a trap and you would have decided to convoy to Greece with Turkish help. I wished to see this move coming from you actually, but it didn't happen, sadly. Side note: An Austrian fleet build is rarely a good news for Italy, and especially if it goes to Adriatic sea.

Now, I don't think your situation is *that* dramatic, since you are not surrounded by any power, and Austria *will* have to move back from Venice, since he is threatened in the East. Although, I think you should start worrying about France a bit, especially since his fleet *might* have no weffect against England, so he might switch them at you now. It weill not happen now, but who knows when it could happen.


From an overall perspective:

The 4 corner powers have the 4 best positions on the board and that should definitely start to be a worry for Austria, Italy and Germany. It doesn't mean that it will end up this way, but were I them, I would start to worry a bit about that. A lot can change, but everyone should keep that in mind.

I'll call it a day! Good turn everyone!

Bump for all the great commentary coming in there. I'll try respond to Tru's questions or post something about stabs or something later. I don't know.

Two quick points about things that interested me this past year.

a) The move to Burgundy
The knee jerk reaction to this move from me was definitely not positive. It's as if France was wondering what the best way to mend a fighting England and Germany and turn my situation around for the worst.
However, looking at it closer, it's almost a no lose situation for France and - imho - a really good move. If we were playing chess, I'd annotate it !?. (This annotation actually lends itself quite well to diplomacy, maybe I'll adopt it going forwards).

If Germany was attacking France, the move was the best and most obvious defence. If Germany was not attacking France but rather defending himself against a blatantly aggressive England it does put some strain on the relationship. However, what could Germany's response to this be? He's not in a position to support England into France or even to turn his back on England's invading troops. He'd have to accept it as a defensive move by a prudent France and move on. If anything, France not taking advantage of his position on Germany now could do more to strengthen the relationship than not moving to Burgundy in the first place. (Similarly to how I suggested Venice not moving to Trieste built trust with Austria - yeesh).

b) The clusterfuck that is the East.
The West hast to be enjoying all the failed supports and the units moving forwards and backwards. More importantly though, this is a good example of how to shake out of a really gloomy position like Turkey's from a turn ago. If there's a lot of uncertainty in everyone's moves, it's tough for there to be a cohesive 3 v 1 going on.

Lecture 5: Analysis of 1902

Alright, so I'll first get around to responding to Tru's points.

1) While this is a good defensive move, the bounce in Bur will always be more pro-French than pro-German. France can still have a 3 build year with the bounce in Bur, but Germany cannot. The bounce denies Germany's ability to open to Bur (my preferred choice) or even Kiel and thus limits Germany's ability to influence Belgium in the fall, giving France a much much greater say. Overall this move hurts Germany, imo.

2) While there isn't a real reason to have Turkey in there, there are two ways to benefit from this move if you know its going to happen. 1) If you're feeling like you're in hot water as Russia, support Turkey to Black Sea. This will give Austria the impression that you are working with Turkey, and will decrease his chances of allying with him. 2) Move to Armenia and build a second fleet in Sev to control the Black Sea in 1902. Russia took option 1, which, given the events at the time, seemed logical.

3) I think that in this situation, the dual French fleet build is best from an alliance standpoint. It gives France the ability to smash England as well as turn on Italy. However, I would have liked to see two German fleet builds as well, especially since there was the possibility that Russia could side with England and had a fleet in Livonia. This not only would ease France's concerns moving forward, but give a naval attack a much better chance of succeeding (and setting Germany better up for a stab of France). In most cases though, the risks do no outweigh the benefits of a dual French fleet build. Given Italy's clear Lepanto, Russia's weakness, and solid German support, it was good in this situation. In most cases though, the threat of a German land attack or Italy pivoting to the West would be enough to make me go conservative with my builds.

4) (a) England's F Lon-NTH/F NTH-SKA, (b) Germany's F Kie-Den/F Den-SKA, (c) Russia's A Rum-Bul and (d) Turkey's A Con-Bul/F BLA-Con

I would say d) is the worst, followed by b), a) and c) I say this not because of what happened, but of what could have happened. S02 could have been the knockout blow for Turkey, had the Lepanto stayed together. Not only did he fail to gain Serbia (a territory he would have promptly lost in the fall) but he failed to move his fleet to Con and thus have a hope of defending himself against Italy's fleets. What we should have seen was Bulgaria lost in 1902 and Italian fleets peppering the Turkish coast with attempted convoys.

Next would be Germany's failed attempt to Ska. I don't know why he chained his moves like that. Even if England had moved to Denmark that spring, he could have easily regained it in the fall, so a move to Hel or Baltic would have been much, much stronger.

England's failed attempt follows, because he was unable to defend the obvious move to the Channel that was coming. It wasn't too damaging though. Russia brings up the rear, because his move was supposed to have support, and he followed it up with other moves such that the failure of Rum to advance didn't stop the rest of his forces from advancing.

Now on to grades. You'll notice mine are going to be quite different than slyster's.

The East

I had quite a bit of difficulty deciding who came out on top in the East, but I'm happy with my decision.

#1 France. Grade - A-
Time: Throughout this year you've had all of your moves successful, save the one bounce in London. I'm not going to fault you on the London move either, because you had a pretty good reason to believe he would move to Wales. Overall, outstanding here
Space: I love love love where your units are positioned. All are moving forward, not backwards, and you now have the ability to convoy to almost anywhere in england you please, or you can drive into the heartland of Germany (or Belgium) in one fell swoop. Pivoting to Italy would only take a year as well (but is inadvisable). You have choices, and I always like being in a position of having choices.
Material: No builds this year, which is why you don't have an A.
England's builds will give you direction in how to proceed, and you should be talking with Russia and Italy too. What's going on in the East will likely affect you first over any other Western power, since the Med is your soft underbelly.

#2 England. Grade - B+
Time: I don't like how you chained your move in the spring, but other than that the turn went well. You're lucky that France's unbounced unit in the Channel hasn't hurt you yet.
Space: I'm torn over whether I like the position of your units or not. You're still in an extremely vulnerable position, even with the builds. Had Russia simply supported Den to Sweden, or even tapped Sweden, your game would be over now. Moving forward I don't know if I like the army in Denmark. It gives Russia solace that he isn't next in line, but it restricts your attacking options as well as strips you of one of the best ways to defend your island
Material: Two builds! You really needed those, else you'd be...well, fucked. You bet a lot on your relationship with Russia and it payed off.
Overall you're strong in numbers, but your enemies still have you out of position. Your builds will determine if you live or not, given the current alliance structure (the better alternative is to not depend upon tactics and rather change the alliance structure in your favor)

#3 Germany. Grade - C-
Time: only successful moves this year were moving to Belgium and Holland, which while good for defending against a seaborne invasion, won't help you against a French attack.
Space: You didn't get your fleets out into open water, which is why you suffered this year. You have positioned your units well enough to hold the English off indefinitely, but holding off does not equal growth, and should your alliance stick together, France will see almost all of the gains from the conquest. More worrying should be how out of position your units are for the French army in Bur right now.
Material: no builds in a year when you should have had at least one
How far the mighty have fallen. You have a lot of diploming to do. It is feasible for England and France to make up, and you certainly don't want that happening.

The East

Oh how I struggled with this ordering. Spots 1 and 2 can be interchanged, as can 3 and 4

#1 Russia. Grade - B
Time: You lost a season this year. Your moves were mostly successful, but the fall backtracked all of the possible advances to be had from the spring moves. I'm not a fan
Space: I was questionable on your spring moves, mainly because of the narrow focus of attack. So in that sense, I suppose the change is better, since you have more room to use your armies against Austria. Tactically, your units are better positioned in the fall than they were in the spring, but strategically i believe you've made a mistake. This can be remedied though, perhaps to secure yourself as the dominant partner in an A/R
Material: No builds = no bueno
I understand why you turned off your attack, I really do, but look at what you threw away! The Fall could have seen you with a fleet in the Black Sea, armies in Bul, Rum and Gal, with a fleet build coming to really drive the nail in Turkey's coffin. You wouldn't have had to worry about an I/A countering you because 1) Austria built a fleet and 2) You must have known he was going to stab Italy. As for your things in the north, you better be properly rewarded for the golden opportunity you put in England's lap, else I will be severely disappointed in you. So as I said, I understand why you moved from attacking Turkey to attacking Austria, but you must be kicking yourself at the opportunity you just passed up. You could have knocked out A and T within 4 years. Sigh. oh well.

#2 Austria. Grade - B
Time: Lots of support holds, showing lack of trust in both R and T. Precaution is necessary as Austria though, so I won't fault you for that....too much.
Space: Much the same as last time. Your western front isn't safe at all at the moment, and if anything is to go, expect Greece to be the one.
Material: 1 build, and boy do you need it. The future doesn't look bright at the moment, so you better be writing lots.
The lesson here is trust. Russia was willing to go balls deep into an invasion of Turkey in the spring. You had absolutely nothing to lose at that point, because Italy's units were still getting into position. Serbia did not need to support hold Greece. A support of Russia to bulgaria could have changed the game for you. Instead, you realized too late that Russia was serious, Russia was in awful position to advance and didn't believe he could expect help from you, so he turned on you, his only other option. So instead of being part of a dominant A/R, you're now getting out the lube and preparing for a gang-bang. It won't be enjoyable.

Jokes aside, you can turn this around, but it will take compromise and sacrifice on your part. Look to see who stands to gain the least from attacking you, and offer them something better. Look to change the situation in the West if you can too, because you want England to pounce on Russia's north, or France rush into the Med, depending upon who your allies are.

#3 Turkey. Grade - C
Time: Basically what happened this year is you lost the Black Sea voluntarily. No successful moves
Space: You're actually in a worse position tactically now than you were before, since you aren't in the Black Sea. Work to get those fleets on the same side of Anatolia.
Material: No builds, no joy.
Don't take this as an insult, since I don't know your press, but you're surviving based on luck. You're lucky Austria didn't support Russia in the spring, you're lucky Russia gave up after one season, and you're lucky Austria stabbed Italy. Now, you might be a diplomatic genius and have masterminded all this, I don't know. Judging from the moves, though, you haven't been very active, don't trust anyone (besides mayhaps Austria) and are not in a good position to advance your units. I think you'll be extremely lucky to get a build next year. The best thing you have going for you at the moment is your relatively inaccessible location and the clusterfuck surrounding Austria.

#4 Italy. Grade - D
Time:
Space: Here is the good news. You're in good position to stall further advance by Austria and perhaps with Russian or Turkish help gain Greece this year. I don't like your spring move though, which I think really set you up for the stab. You already had Tunis to convoy (though I'd have been hesitant to do it with the French fleets too) but you don't always have to convoy into a place, especially Bulgaria. The benefits of having and army in bulgaria (with a friendly Austria) are only marginally better than having a fleet in there, especially since his other fleet was in the Black Sea. A move I would have liked to see was A Ven-Tyrolia. That would have shaken things up, made Austria re-think his choices and given you a shot to perhaps take an Austrian home SC while sacrificing Venice.
Material: A destroy. This is the reason why I don't have you above Turkey. Destroying Tunis may invite the French in, but I don't see another unit better to destroy.
You're down, but not out Italy. There's still a lot of chance for you to turn this around!

Best of luck everyone. Look to the English and Austrian builds as guidance for your diplomacy.

Eep, I forgot Time for Italy. Moves were successful in the spring, but the failed convoy attempt (that shouldn't have been attempted if you suspected a stab) really hurt you

Also, in Austria's comments, replace "western front isn't safe" with "eastern front isn't safe"