So, seems everybody wants to go sail this year (with Austrias exception, but hey, when do you see Austria sailing on 1902?).

England - After that support into Bel I didn´t expect so anti-France builds, but with that fleet on Bre maybe it was the right choice. Also, that build on StP sc is really a good sign.

France - A pretty expected build when England have two builds. But that extra fleet on Lyp is sign of trouble. At least seem that Germany will be busy with Russia, so maybe we will see some alliance shifting in the West.

Germany - Well, a pretty confusing build, as it was more anti-Russia then I expect after allowing the Tzar into Swe, but it seems a good choice with that build on StP sc. But Germany need to find an ally in the West if he wants to have a chance to win this battle.

Italy- Almost forced build on Nap and now comes the usual question of 1902. Go for the Lepanto or stab Austria? With that fleets coming I thing the answer is pretty obvious...

Austria - Another forced build and he should be offering his soul to Italy in exchange for help against the Turk....

Russia - Not what I expect to see, a very anti-German builds. Russia should hope that E/G don´t ally, otherwise he will be in trouble. Also, don´t see many gains in the south too this year, but the Jugg is on the run.

Turkey - Expected builds, solidifies the Jugg without having to worry with his back. But Russia focus on the north could leave him alone to fight both A/I, not an easy task.

bump!

bump, and a star for me, please.

bumpity

Bumping in hopes of much desired commentary!

just a reminder, professors are asked to commentate twice a year, doesn't matter what phase, just twice a year

I think rdrivera is out of town until Friday, for what that's worth...

thanks for the info marx

Oh, each of us twice a year? Shit. Sorry, guys.

I'll wait ~3 hours for the builds to resolve and give the first commentary on 1903.

Well, I am back and will comment later or tomorrow, as soon as I have some time to read my last comments and analise the board.

Well, sorry for the lack of analisys on the last turns, but I was away.
Anyway, this was an interesting year, with alliances geting more clear.
We have a old fashioned Jugg, a strong AI and in the other side a strange FG, that was a EG in Spring and that could even turn to a EF next turn.
I think the biggest winner this year was Germany, but supporting France against England could have been a big mistake as Russia and England could align and this will mean trouble.
The biggest loser is Russia, two centers down and with units a bit out of position.
And the stronges power is still Turkey, but with a weak Russia, the Jugg could start to fall apart.
Country analisys
England - England did well in first year and with two fleets I expect him to be the winner against France, but somehow he was unable to keep Germany at his side and now will have to deal with both France and Germany. Can be done with Russia´s help, but it won´t be an easy task.
France was the odd man out in the West, but Germany support next turn bring him back into life. Belgium is at reach next turn and if Germany can put his fleets to work England will have a hard time in the seas.
Germany - Flip-floping alliances is usually not a good policy, but in this case it pay back and Germany is back on business. But the attack on England could have been a poor choice as Swe could fall now and taking it back could be tricky. Also, doesn´t seem Germany will get another build soon, and that could be a problem if France starts to grow.
Italy - Italy wins Greece on Spring and lose it in the Fall (in fact, he can´t do much about it). But at least he can build another fleet and will give some trouble to Turkey.
Austria - Austria got War and a chance to survive as a disband now will be a disaster, but without a new army things won´t be easy to him as Turkey and Russia have 4 armies against only three of him. Italy need to put that army on Venice to use to keep things balanced.
Russia - The tzar is suffering now, but the disbands show that he will not be on defense next year. I expect an attack on Swe and some pressure against Austria. I have to say that his moves last year were really bad. Why move StP to Fin when it could have cut Nwy support? Also, allowing Austria on Gal to support Turkey into Ser was a poor choice, as he could have bounce Gal in Spring and supported Turkey in the Fall. Here is an example why we should play more defensively on Spring and more offensively in the Fall.
Turkey - Turkey is growing, not fast but in a good pace and who can stop him? Italy and Austria have the units to do this, but Turkey can sit in his corner and wait until the alliance cracks or someone come from the West, so I feel Turkey will be present in the end game one way or another.

It puts the bumping on the thread or else it gets the hose again.

Well, Russia is in deep trouble. We can say that for certain. Turkey has Italy walled off and is no doubt currying all kinds of favor with Austria and Germany right now by moving to the Black Sea. Russia provoking Turkey on the same turn by tapping Bulgaria didn't help.

But the main plot here is England and France. In short: What are they doing?! The Triple Alliance is strewn out to the east, Turkey is in its typical corner and Russia is a ripe fruit about to be plucked. I am almost certain after the stunt Germany tried to pull in A02 with Belgium that England would be oh so happy to take advantage of Germany and Russia's weakness, but France and England are both devoting everything and I mean EVERYTHING to defense against each other. They're really missing out.

England: Needs to find some way to get France off its back in Belgium. There's no reason why the two of them could not put a serious dent in Germany, Russia and Italy. Germany has an impressive array of troops in Scandinavia, but no real way of converting that array into a meaningful offensive against England without taking a couple turns to readjust -- time he wouldn't have if England struck quickly.

Alternatively England could go after Russia, the spoils there aren't really worth mentioning, but the time it would take might make France or Germany drop their guard for a stab.

France: Italy is ripe for the picking. Belgium can't be cracked if England doesn't want it to be unless Germany helps (and it appears Germany changed its mind on that). Germany can also be profitably attacked with English help. Making peace and going after someone else is almost a no-brainer here. I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.

Germany: I almost have to assume Germany is responsible for England's and France's situation. The diplomacy is clearly what's putting those two at odds, and no one else would have the sway to make that happen with both parties aside from Germany. The German strategy has been working thus far, but I'd be concerned about the relatively slow rate of expansion here because it is typically very difficult to keep two powers at war for very long without actively intervening on one or the other's behalf. If Germany can keep England and France busy with each other, then it's in a very good way. If not, the result could get ugly.

Italy: A similarly tenuous position as Germany here; completely dependent on French goodwill which has fortunately for him been very forthcoming. If France comes in from the west, Italy is done for. The very fortunate thing for Italy, though, is that France may well decide to keep him around for a while. Those three fleets bottling up Turkey in the Ionian Sea are immensely valuable and the only way to guarantee they stay there is to forgo the attack on Italy. Now, naturally this doesn't leave Italy much option in the way of expansion... but that's typically the price paid for a Lepanto against a Juggernaut (particularly one with a competent Turkey).

Austria: Not in a particularly good place. Not in a bad one, either. The Juggernaut is apparently about to crack, but the question of how to capitalize is a hard one to answer. Serbia might be available, and with that turning back the Turkish tide. But where to from there? It'll still be an uphill battle to get anywhere. Russia's decision will prove important.

Russia: In serious shit, but we didn't need to tell you that. Provoking Turkey as Turkey moves to the Black Sea is not wise. The question is whether he can get Austria on his side. If he can, wonderful, he can probably spare himself some potential losses and try his hand at working with them and see where it goes. More likely, though, he loses either Moscow or Rumania (or maybe even both depending on how things go with Turkey).

Turkey: Suddenly not in a great position. Russia turning on it in its own deathbed is not helping matters, but even if Russia were to stay loyal to the end, Russia collapsing is going to allow the infidels to outflank the Ottomans in Armenia. And while the Balkan position is tough to crack, it can be done given enough time -- and there's not enough pressure anywhere else to prevent that time from being given.

I agree with Eden in a lot of points. Seems we have a central powers alliance at this point and they have managed to have E/F and R/T fighting between themselves.
I think the worst moves where made by Turkey, I just don´t get why attack Russia now, that he is really weak and with Austria and Italy strongly allied and with Germany running to the East.
I was expecting Gre to Alb with Ser support, Aeg to Gre with Bud suport and Con to Aeg while EM hit Ion. This will force that fleet on Alb to move back and will keep the Jug with some attacking position. Now he will be on the defense, hoping that somehow that alliance breaks.
Also, brilliant move from Germany/Austria into Galicia, now they have to decide what is the best option, killing Russia quick, before he can ally with Turkey again or even England or start to block/attack Turkey to weaken the strongest opponent on the East. I have an answer, but will not give it to avoid influencing the players.

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You are posting the same message again, please don't post repeat messages.

Shut UP, I'm trying to do my job

>freaked the fuck out when he realized it had been 4 days since he checked thread
>checked, realized that only one turn (plus builds) had gone through
>awwww yeeeeaaaaahhh

Analysis in a couple hours.

Well, this game have been really interesting up to this point.
Germany made the best moves again, keeping E/F busy fighting and making a road to harvest all Scandinavia and probably also War and Mos someday.
Austria move into Ser an Ukr is an interesting one too, but without a build I think Austria will be soon gone of the game, in fact, is my bet to be the first one to go....
Italy got a build from Trie but that fleet on Mars could be bad news, but I think France is still focused on England.
Russsia is suffering, even building a new army on StP he don´t have a real ally and will probably lose Rum and Sev in few turns.
Turkey and England have the same problem, they don´t have a single friend on the board and the same advantage, they can play the turtle tactic and wait for the central alliances start to fall.

ermmm, Eden. What happened to that analysis? Its been another 4 days lol.

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! What did happen to that analysis?! I spent an hour on that and I SWEAR I saw it here. God, I'm a useless professor.

Ghost-Ninja-Pirate-Magician Vanishing Act Analysis of S04 (fuck yooooou 500 errors)

It appears that the alliances have rather rapidly shifted since even the past fall. What appeared to be, this time last year, a central triple vs Juggernaut setup with EvF infighting has turned into an AR v IT and RG(F?) v E. England is on the verge of crumbling completely without any help from Germany's and Russia's neighbors. France is still extremely ineffectually defending himself against an English attack that is almost certainly nonexistent; England likewise is committing half its military to defending against a Frenchman content to sit where he is. Needless to say, EF's stalling appears to be making life simple for a German player who's been all over the board alliance-wise and a Russian who's content to have it simple after the hell he's been through. The east is muddled and will remain so for some time. If Germany uses its army in Bohemia, it can play Kingmaker in the east; look instead for that army to move toward France, Germany being content to watch the mayhem.

Predictions:
* England falls to the Russo-German alliance. Germany ends up with the whole island, Russia with Scandinavia (sans, of course, Denmark) or at least Sweden, France ends up with nothing from it. Germany would overwhelm either France or Russia in the resulting matchup, but if they combine to attack Germany they could very easily take him out.

* Italy and Turkey win the 2-on-2 against Russia and Austria in a very protracted battle. Austria becomes the ritual sacrifice first, and Italy uses the gains to turn on France while Turkey launches a strike at the Russians' southern front. If this occurs, then Germany can spare the two-front war mentioned in the previous point, with the result most likely being a 3-way Turkey/Italy/GER draw [TIGER!].

Alternate scenarios from there:
* Germany turns exclusively on Russia, leaving France to fight Italy. Result is a 3-way France/Germany/Turkey draw.
* Germany turns exclusively on France, leaving Russia to fight Turkey. Result is probably still a 3-way TIGER draw, though if Italy can launch a two-front war as well and begin containing Turkey, it could be a 2-way Italy/Germany draw.

Of course, all of these scenarios are most likely useless, as they are contingent on this alliance structure carrying itself through until the elimination of the initial targets. Given the rapidly shifting alliances, this may not be true.

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Why this game haven´t been unpaused yet?

England needed a pause till Sunday I believe.