Bleep Navy...GO ARMY!!!!!!!!!!

For TrPrado:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGUNrHWZaVs

My prediction as of right now:

- Champions of the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten will all go. (Clemson/Miami, Auburn/Georgia, Wisconsin/Ohio State)
- Oklahoma gets the 4th spot if they win. If they lose, Alabama gets the 4th spot.

I do not think the committee will take a 1-loss Alabama over a 1-loss Big XII Champion Oklahoma, but I think they will take a 1-loss Alabama over a 2-loss conference champion or conference runner-up (even if, in the case of the SEC, it's Alabama over Auburn, who just beat Alabama).

I won't begin to guess at the seeding, because I don't think I could reasonably predict conference championship game winners -or- how those wins would affect the seeds. But it'll be the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten champs; Oklahoma has a win-and-in against TCU; and if Oklahoma stumbles then Alabama backdoors in.

And for fun:

"What do you do if:

Clemson loses tonight to South Carolina
Auburn beats Georgia
Ohio State beats Wisconsin
TCU beats Oklahoma

And Miami loses to Clemson in ACC title

Lmao"

Clemson: 11-2, ACC Champions
Auburn: 11-2, SEC Champions
Ohio State: 11-2, Big Ten Champions
TCU: 11-2, Big XII Champions

Alabama: 11-1, 3rd SEC
Georgia: 11-2, SEC runnerup
Miami (FL): 10-2, ACC runnerup
Oklahoma: 11-2, Big XII runnerup

It is pretty hard not to take the four conference champions. Maybe you take Alabama as the only 1-loss team, but they finished third in their conference in this scenario and would be cutting out the 2nd place team in their conference.

I think the committee would probably "eye test" Alabama over TCU and you'd have Clemson, Auburn, Ohio State, Alabama as your four.

Actually, I guess if they would take Alabama over 2-loss conference champs in the first scenario, they certainly would in the second. That makes me very confident you'd have Clemson, Auburn, Ohio State, Alabama in bb's chaos scenario.

Yea I think saban has a fair point. Last year Ohio State was gifted a way in despite not making their title. The circumstances are different here, if Ohio State beats Wisconsin, I think Bama gets in - Not Ohio State.

If Georgia beats Auburn, Georgia is in. Period. If Auburn wins, despite two losses, you cannot keep Auburn out. Theres no scenario where a sane person puts bama in over an SEC champion Georgia or Auburn.

So bama has one shot, its that Miami upsets Clemson and that ohio St beats Wisconsin.

Then I think theres enough room for Bama to make that #4 spot.

Somehow it didn't dawn on me that OSU had 2 losses already in my first post.

I think you're right and that Alabama will be in over a 2-loss conference champion OSU.
I don't think it matters whether or not Miami beats Clemson. The winner of that game is definitely in and the loser is definitely out.
Alabama needs either Oklahoma or Wisconsin to lose. If both of them win then Alabama is out in the cold (SEC Champ, ACC Champ, Wisconsin, Oklahoma are your playoff teams). If one of them loses then Alabama gets one of those spaces. If *both* lose, then Ohio State is probably your last team in. They would be tied or ahead in record with all of the runnerups except Wisconsin and would have a conference championship to pull them ahead.
Wisconsin would still have a better record, but I think the committee wouldn't want to invalidate the Big Ten Championship Game completely...

brain, they said there is a big difference between OSU last year,. and Bama this year

1) OSU was the only Big10 team in, Alabama would be teh 2nd.
2) OSU had an excellent SoS, Alabama has the worst one of any of the Top 8 teams this year.

So, it is not a fair comparison, at least if you listen to the guys who are the 'experts'

I don’t see Ohio State getting in. They were blown out at home to a Top Ranked opponent and then they were blown out to my favorite, Iowa, an unranked opponent who barely scores more then 20 a game by 31 points.

Sure they beat Penn State and Michigan State and maybe Wisconsin but 2 bad losses are too big to get rid of. 1 bad loss is ok, look at Clemson and Washington last year. 2 bad losses are hard. Auburn is the only 2 loss team in contention because they didn’t get blown out, both of their losses are ranked, and they blew out 2 #1 ranked teams.

It will come down to Wisconsin or Alabama. If Wisconsin wins they are in, if they don’t Alabama gets in. Alabama might have a weak schedule, but they passed the eye test, Ohio State doesn’t.

Well, just listening to the Committee, good wins mean more than bad losses their words, not mine

The problem is that Ohio State has only 2 quality wins.

Look at Oklahoma, they had great wins last year(Oklahoma State West Virgina Kansas State), ran the table in the B12 and won the conference championship. Yet those 2 losses by ranked teams killed them. Even more the problem rhis year is that there are more quality teams above Ohio State then Oklahoma last year. Oklahoma was fighting Washington and Penn State. Ohio State will be fighting the loser of the ACC championship game, Alabama, Georgia if they lose the SEC Championship, and Oklahoma if they lose the B12 championship.

I see no route for Ohio State. If there was one more weekend then there would be a much greater chance but all there’s left is conference championship games. The committee has shown there is no hesitation to pick teams that didn’t win their conference, considering they picked Ohio State over Penn State last year.

Ohio State is not as good as bama this year. Plus wisconsin should win that game by several scores

who has bama beat to prove they are better though?

Zach If they beat Wisky, they will have two wins over Top 10 teams, and another win over Mich state who will be sitting around 13 or so.

Alabama has ONE win over 16th ranked team

If Oklahoma wins, ACC winner, SEC winner (as 538 says, Georgia winning hurts bama more) and then it comes down to Alabama/wisky/Ohio state.

If Ohio state takes Wisky to the woodshed, they will get in.

Bama quality wins:
LSU
Miss St
Florida State (they were #2 at the time)
Tex a&m

Bottom line is their resume is pretty soft.

They judge teams SoS by the end result.
AnM 5 losses, Miss state 4 losses...

LSU is the big one? yikes Didnt they lose AT HOME to Troy?

Zach, 538 has its %s and all the scenarios

Loser of SEC and ACC wont have a conference title, and will also have 2 losses.

Aubun will have 3 losses if they lose, so we can say bye to that notion right off the bat.

Alabama will have the WORST SoS of any teams that has a chance. Wisky currently has that title, but they will play Ohio state, so it will get a bump up over Alabama.

Nrain, Florida state went 6-6 That isnt a quality win

a&m IS 7-5..not a quality win

They got zero wins over a Top 15 team. None
Worst SoS of any team that is trying for the play-offs

Just go to Nate Silvers site, he lays it out there.

I mean Ohio State gave up like a billion points to shothole iowa lol

538 is not the committee. It will be Wisconsin or Alabama. The committee’s job is to pick the 4 best teams, and Alabama is a better team then Ohio State. That 55-24 loss is just too much too swallow. Ohio State is just like last year’s Penn State, 2 bad losses with 2 quality wins. What happened there, to my and many others dismay, Penn State didn’t get in.

I hope the Badgers win, I don’t want Alabama or Ohio State in but it will come down to Alabama/Wisconsin. Auburn is the only 2 loss team in contention because of their resume, 2 losses to ranked teams and 2 #1s taken down.

Ohio State was gifted last year even when Penn State beat them, its time they get a taste of their own medicine. They need to be taken back down to earth.

Also if they got in they would face Clemson, I don’t think their arrogant fanbase wants to see them blown out again.

@brainbomb
I agree, I am an Iowa fan and our offense is good against terrible defenses and terrible against decent to good defenses. Ohio State has a good defense yet we hung 55 on them. Nate Stanely will be one of college football’s best QBs over the next 2 years.

I’m still pissed Josey Jewell ain’t a butkus award finalist.

then I guess we shall see

Of course, this wont matter one bit if Wisky wins or OKlahoma loses

brainbomb, just how many is a billion anyway?

Go Gators.
We hired Dan Mullen. Fuck yes

Auburn has moved up to #2. A two loss team is now ahead of Oklahoma and undefeated Wisconsin. I am impressed the comittee had the balls to do this.

I'm the opposite of impressed that they think Alabama is so unbeatable that Auburn deserves that spot.

Baker plays better angry, so this snub is going to do good for us.

Oklahoma has the best QB. Itll be OU in the title and probably will be a shootout. A wisconsin-OU title would be a great chess match of run vs pass. Ou has no defense, but can score like 50 a game.

I just dont see clemson or auburn making the title.

Auburn has beat #1 twice in three weeks. Don't underestimate them.

Change the criteria for making the college football playoff to either:
1) Win your conference, or
2) Have at least 9 victories over Power Five conference opponents.

Auburn lost to the current #1 team and the GOAT program in college sports history, no shame in that. That's like a half-loss each in real terms.