I have played less than 10 games of gunboat and consider myself a bit of a novice especially in the early game. I have a question :

In a gunboat game....how do you handle the common bounce areas in Spring 1901? Do you almost always move to them as an overabundance of caution? Do you not move to them as a signal of friendship?

Yal brought up Burgundy and this is a good example. Risking Burgundy to Germany is a risk for France. Does the fact France left it open signal a significant desire with Germany to align? Is it worth sending that signal so early in the game considering Germany may have assumed a bounce and moved there implying aggression when he only expected tp bounce? Should Germany not assume a bounce in Burgundy if he wants to signal friendship?

Or is my desire to communicate clouding things and signalling anything in 1901 is pointless?

Sorry...one question was mispoken. France did not leave Burgundy open...I meant to ask If France left Burgundy open as opposed to "the fact that France left Burgundy open"

A couple thoughts on the bounce question. For Black Sea and Gal I personally move to them always in gunboat as Russia and as Turkey and Austria respectively. Without press I consider it too risky to leave them as a DMZ. For English Channel I usually take the opposite approach. I never open there as France in gunboat and rarely open there as England (and if I do it is with the knowledge that France will likely interpret this as an act of war in gunboat and I've made an enemy on turn one). Burgundy is a little different to me as it is not necessarily a true bounce space anyway. If France wants it he can take it in turn one (usually with Mar supporting Par). As Germany I sometimes throw Mun-Bur out there just in case France is not issuing support or if I feel like trying to ally with France out of the gate I will issue Mun support Par-Bur to foster goodwill and because I can't stop it anyway if he supports the move himself. From the French perspective, if for some reason I decided not to move to Bur as a signal of goodwill to Germany, I'm not going to be surprised if he did move to Bur. But I will be in a bad position (probably have to forgo a build to make defensive moves) and most of the time it will be hard for Germany not to go after France if he gets into Bur on turn one, even if his initial intent was to bounce at best and not plan to invade France.

So to sum up, to me the cost/risk of France NOT moving to Bur on turn one outweighs the benefit of any German goodwill possibly gained from the move. As Germany it is kind of the opposite. Mun supporting Par-Bur on turn one should definitely convey intended goodwill with little risk downside (it may still fall on deaf French ears but then it wasn't meant to be anyway).

bump for spring 1901 moves

sorry, fall 1901 moves

I'll put up some commentary tomorrow. Note we have quite the efficient bunch; every neutral supply center has been claimed in W01

That's how we roll the summer class of '15!

ahem....^in the summer class of '15...

I'll post my commentary sometime later today. Don't have enough time this morning to do it justice.

Fall 01 - Probably the most interesting turn in gunboat games as intentions in Spring 01 are still often ambiguous for most nations, but the Fall moves force some to commit to a course of action for the early game. All neutrals have been grabbed already and everyone managed at least one build. I'm going to write up some move commentary now and then do Build commentary in a separate post (maybe later depending on free time).

Austria - The good news is you took Gre and kept Russia out of Gal again, the bad news is Italy stabbed you and took Tri. I like your moves for the following reason - If Italy isn't short-sighted then you are getting two builds and he and you are in solid position to go to work on Turkey and hold Russia in check. The way I look at it the Juggernaut will wipe both of you out unless you work together to stop it (or unless it never materializes, but with Turkey staying out of Armenia and with Russia moving Army Ukr-Rum it is pretty clearly on in this one). If Italy decides that the short-term gain of one center is worth ditching you as a potential ally and making you extremely weak to hold off the Juggernaut then I guess he and I have to agree to disagree. Mending fences is a lot more difficult in gunboat, especially early on where there is no clear solo threat to unite enemies over past differences and Italy attacking Austria early rarely works out well for either of them in my experience unless Turkey and Russia are also fighting each other (for example if Turkey orders Army Smy-Arm in Spring 01 Italy can do okay hitting Austria early). When Juggernaut forms early Italy is usually going to see Austria respond to the early stab by throwing almost everything at Italy and trying to make sure he takes Italy down with him (in my experience that usually works and is great for Turkey and good for Russia). Maybe he expects that you will reward his stab and still throw everything you have at Russia and Turkey, but I can't remember seeing that happen too many times. Move grade: A-, Position grade: C-

England - These moves make a hard commitment North and leave Nth Sea open (temporarily most likely, but still). I do like the consolidation of forces approach, though the strong commitment against one adversary can backfire if your other neighbors decide to hit your exposed flank. These moves say you are going after Scandinavia and not interested in conflict with France for now and not interested in conflict with Germany unless he intends to move North and contest Scandinavia instead of towards the Lowlands and then France. Some French players will be happy to leave you alone to fight up North while they focus on Italy and/or Germany while others will see all your forces far away from Liverpool and English Channel and decide to move on you early. This is also where watching the entire board is important and comes into play as the early conflict between Italy and Austria makes Italy a more attractive target for France on the one hand but also makes him less of a threat to France, so it all comes down to how aggressive France wants to be and who of you and Italy he perceives as easier pickings. Or maybe he leaves both of you alone and goes full bore at Germany. Russia has 2 builds coming and only 2 open centers so he will definitely be building a unit in StP. So hopefully for your sake Germany helps you against Russia (or at least doesn't help Russia hold Sweden) as even with all your units in the Northern theater Russia with 2 units and a friendly (to Russia) Germany can stall you pretty well. In your favor is a 6-unit France which has to have Germany at least a little nervous and he probably needs a not-weak England on the board as a check against France. Move Grade: B+, Position Grade: C+

France - The good news: 3 builds, England moved all his units North, Italy has attacked Austria, hope you played the lottery this weekend. The bad news: Very little, I guess the worst thing you have going is that several of the players will be keeping a closer eye on you as the early frontrunner. Though everyone SHOULD be keeping a close eye on all other players anyway, human nature dictates that most players will mainly be watching their immediate neighbors and maybe the top power on the leaderboard. I touched on it above in the England section, but you have a critical decision to make as to how you proceed from here. England's exposed flank makes a big target but he is also almost no threat to you currently. Similarly for Italy (his forces will likely be locked up with Austria on land and soon Turkey in the seas), so not much threat to you but also a tempting target since he is already about to be engaged on 2 fronts. Then there is Germany who will almost certainly be taking Bel from you in the Spring. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next. Move grade: A, Position grade: A

Germany - Pretty standard 2 builds for you, guessed right with staying put in Ruhr rather than covering Mun. I personally like to hit Bel from Ruhr if I'm not covering Mun to prevent France from getting 3 builds and/or get a second build myself in case France does move Bur-Mun. Consider what the board would look like right now if France had taken Mun instead of Bel. You would only be getting one build and would have to use all your units just to dislodge France and avoid him retreating to Kie or Ber. Fortunately for you France went to Bel so it didn't cost you. With England throwing everything at Scandinavia you won't have much early help there against France and Italy likely won't be putting much pressure on France either with the early Austria conflict. Since you are still in Ruhr you can guarantee taking Bel in the Spring (though holding it in the Fall is not so guaranteed depending on what France does next). Move grade: B-, Position grade: B+

Italy - As you've probably guessed from the comments above I am not a fan of the early attack on Austria unless Russia and Turkey are fighting each other. To me this is a classic mistake that inexperienced players make (and sometimes even experienced players do, I know I've done it a few times). Namely going after the short-term gain without considering the long-term impact. Austria normally responds to Italian attack by throwing everything into re-taking Tri and then you have little to show for things other than a strong Russia and a very strong Turkey who has you firmly in his sights at that point. Maybe you can prove me wrong here, but for now I do not like your long-term chances in this one. France getting 3 builds certainly doesn't help matters for you either. Move grade: C+, Position grade: B-

RUssia - Solid moves, Germany let you into Sweden (which is generally the correct play I think, especially when England has moved several units North) and you correctly moved the army from Ukr to Rum rather than the fleet in Sev. Russian players that move the Fleet to Rum in Fall 01 rather than the army (assuming Turkey is cooperating and not in Armenia) are a pet peeve of mine. I don't understand what they think a Fleet in Rum is going to do against Austria other than sit around waiting to die. The army of course gives Russia and Turkey lots of options vs. Austria among them support of War-Gal or Bul-Ser in the short term and attacks on Gal, Bud, Ser or support into any of those in the medium term. Just in case there was any doubt Turkey supported the Ukr-Rum move which says he wants to be your ally and correctly understands tactics well enough to know that you would be moving to RUm from Ukr and not Sev. Move grade: A, Position grade: A-

Turkey - Solid moves, though Turkey's options are somewhat limited early so not at all surprising to see these. Italy's attack on Austria is great for you and Russia appears to know what he is doing, which is good for the early game while you are allies but could be bad long-term if/when you two stop being friends. If you knew that the Italian attack on Austria was coming you would probably rather have the Fleet in Con than BLA right now, but as it is you should be poised to make early gains while Austria attempts to dislodge Italy from his home center if he goes that route. If he decides not to and tries to attack you or Russia there isn't much he can do as you will have sufficient forces to at least hold your ground and probably still make gains. Move grade: A-, Position grade: A-

Build phase 01 Comments - France gets 3, Russia, Italy, and Germany 2, everyone else gets 1.

Austria - 1 build, 1 open center, 1 choice for that landlocked center - Army in Bud. Not much to say about this one, no real choice/option.

England - 1 build, 3 open centers, in theory 6 options, in reality almost certainly building a fleet and most likely in Lon rather than Edi unless you really trust France completely. It will be imperative for you to get at least one build in Year 2 as well for defensive purposes even if France leaves you alone this coming year.

France - 3 builds, 3 open centers, army Par plus choice in Mar and Bre. Most players build a fleet in Bre here and army in Mar, but if France wants to signal to England to stay up North he could do the reverse (though it makes fighting Germany and holding Bel more difficult). Building 2 fleets also an option, though again that leaves the interior a little thin vs. Germany. Nothing says France and Germany have to fight here I guess, but I will be surprised if they don't. I guess Germany could leave Bel alone and France could move on England and/or Italy and not try to get into Ruhr or Mun.

Germany - 2 builds, 3 open centers, army in Mun seems almost certain, the other build more likely in Kie than Ber but could be a fleet to go after Swe and/or Nth Sea or an army to use against France. Army in Ber to go with army in Mun and an early move on Russia an outside possibility, but that seems unlikely since Russia would likely see it coming from a mile away and it would be very risky with a 3 build France unchecked by England and Italy right now.

Italy - 2 builds, 3 open centers, usually see army in Ven and fleet in Nap when Italy has 2 builds since Fleet in Nap can go anywhere Rom can except Tus and army in Ven can move to Tyr (or support a move to Tyr) whereas a fleet in Ven cannot. Army Ven and army Rom another possibility if Italy wants to keep open the option of a move to Tyr in the Spring or army Ven and army Nap with the intent of convoying the Nap army to Alb. But those seem less likely to me as Italy already has an army in Tun that could be moved to the Austrian front if needed. One thing I neglected to mention in my move commentary that I will mention now is that given that Italy intended to hit Tri I don't understand moving the army to Tun rather than taking Tun with a fleet and moving the Apu army to Ven instead. That would allow Italy to build 2 fleets now and still have an army in Ven or build fleet Nap and an army in Rom and not have to spend a turn convoying the Tun army to somewhere useful. That would also be better for defensive purposes in case France decides to come after Italy since there would be a fleet in Tun. Plus it would allow the fleet in Ion to move to Adr to help hold Tri without stranding the army in Tun. All of that factored into the move grade I just neglected to mention it earlier.

Russia - 2 builds, 2 open centers, Mos has to be army, StP could be either type and if fleet it could be north coast or south coast. With England moving so hard north it seems most likely that the StP build will either be fleet NC or army as fleet SC is of limited benefit against Germany and is almost sure to cost Russia Swe and possibly StP in year 2.

Turkey - 1 build, 2 open centers. With Russia and Turkey working together so far a build in Ank seems unlikely and an army in Smy is useless against Italy, almost useless against Austria, so I will be very surprised to see anything other than fleet Smy as this build.

Bump for moves

Interesting set of moves. I am very interested to hear the pros and cons of the I/A/T moves given other options for each.

Also interested in commentary on German F DEN H. What messages does that send (and what risks does it run) in contrast to a support of Russia in Sweden.

Spring 02 comments - shaping up to be an interesting game.

Austria - as expected liberated Tri and sacrificed the Balkans to do so. This is why early Italian stab is bad idea in gunboat when Russia and Turkey are not fighting each other. Italy's short term gain in 01 quickly goes away and Turkey and Russia roll through Austria and then Italy. Still a chance for you to survive, but it will require Russia and/or Turkey to refrain from attacking you further and it is hard to see a good reason for them to do so. Your goal for the fall should be to try to remain a 4-center power for year 3 which will be tough but not impossible.

England - so building in Edi didn't have the presumably desired effect of keeping France from moving to the Channel. In your favor Germany did not support Swe so you were successful in taking Swe. You need a build to defend against the potential French assault next year. That build could come from holding everything you have right now or by trading one of your current centers for StP or Den depending on what moves you expect Russia and Germany to make.

France - Germany kicked you out of Bel and has enough units to hold it if he uses both Ruhr and Hol to hold even with your fleet in the Channel. Retreat will obviously be to Pic since there is nowhere else to go. You will also have to decide how you want to react to the combined German moves of taking Bel and supporting you into Bur. The Russian retreat could be very much in your favor if he goes to Bal as that will force Germany to at least think about diverting some units to defend Ber and/or Kie. You have options for the coming turn, do you throw everything you can at Bel or do you make position moves against England? Or option 3, move towards Italy who is locked up with Austria and soon to be facing a growing Turkey.

Germany - I like the coordination of forces around Bel and the potential live branch by Mun supporting Mar-Bur is better than just throwing that one unit at Bur in an attack. I don't get Den hold though. If you aren't going to support Russia in Swe then I think you have to at least bounce Nth sea. That would give France free move into Lon but also probably work more towards detente with France than your Mun support alone. Plus it would keep Den safe for this turn instead of leaving it undefended against a potential Swe-Den with support from Nth. Sure England would have to gamble that France isn't attacking Lon and also isn't ordering Channel-Nth, but you have no units to support Den right now. Not supporting Swe also has the downside that Russia has to retreat this turn and Bal looks like a pretty tempting spot, especially since he probably feels little goodwill towards you after you held rather than supporting him. If he does that then suddenly you have to defend Ber and Kie in addition to worrying about whether England is coming after Den. And if you use units to defend those spots then you are no longer guaranteed to hold Bel.

Italy - very odd fleet move to EMed here. Almost like you think you and Austria will be working together against Turkey even though you invaded Tri in year 1. These moves would be great spring 02 moves if you had not moved to Tri in year 1 but I don't see them accomplishing much given that you did. Ion to Adr seems like it would have been more useful as it would give you a shot at taking back Tri in the fall. As it is I don't see what you hope to do this fall. You can put an army in Syr that won't be much help in year 3 against the coming Turkish builds or you can attack Smy with 1 unit and hope Turkey doesn't defend it and/or you can attack Gre with 1 unit and hope neither Austria in Alb nor any of the Turkish units attack it. I don't like your chances on either of those which means you are probably disbanding a unit at end of year 2.

Russia - Germany didn't support you in Swe so England has the upper hand on you, though it will be a guessing game for the fall between you two given the number of units in play and adjacent to StP, Nor, and Swe. You have 3 options for the Swe retreat - 1) Ska for use in fall against Swe or Nor; 2) GoB for use in fall against Swe or to defend StP; 3) Bal for use in fall against Swe, Ber, Kie, or Den if you think Germany will use Den to defend Kie and England will not move to Den. Option 2 is the most passive and option 3 the most aggressive. Things are better for you in the south though depending on what Austria does with Vie and Turkey does with Ser you may or may not take Bud.

Turkey - solid set of moves. Italy attacking Austria in 01 looks to be working out nicely for you so far. Italy in EMed forces you to consider defending Smy this turn which may prevent you from building there if you guess wrong and you'll have a decision to make as to whether you go after Gre this turn gambling that Bud and Tri will both get attacked by Italy and Russia leaving Ser safe without support. Your other main option is to just make sure you hold Ser and try to help get Russia into Bud. Either way you are in good shape and should be poised to make additional gains in the coming years.

Current rankings
Strong like bull - Turkey
Great position but fading strength - France
Made his own bad luck if Russia retreats to Bal - Germany
Purple Haze, can't tell if they're moving up or down - Russia, England
Dug his own grave - Italy
All he needs is a miracle - Austria

Forgot to mention Italian retreat. Not much can to say, only option is Tyr. Or disband I guess if he wants to try to signal Austria that he knows he can't take Tri and maybe they can try to work things out and slow down Turkey and Russia.

I screwed up the Russian retreat options. Ska is out since that is where the attack came from so really it is just Gob or Bal.

Thanks for being an awesome professor Yale, you've covered most everything I wanted to say these last two phases.

This phase is where things get interesting! First, let's check out any units that didn't move. Specifically here that would be TRI and DEN. According to the order log they support held Serbia and just held respectively. Always good to check that kind of thing first before you come to any kind of conclusions about the board.

Someone asked specifically about DEN H. Traditionally any straight hold order, with very specific exception such as maybe Trieste, is admonished in the School of War. Especially in the early game with so few units, just *not using* one seems very silly. What could Denmark do? Well last year it also just held, letting Russia into Sweden, a very calculated decision. However the double army build signals anti-France. Combined with the forceful taking of Belgium and that it didn't go to NTH, what Denmark H suggests to me is a, maybe not desperate per se, but forceful request of allyship from England.

Why not bounce Russia then? The same reason that Denmark didn't support SKA-SWE either: plausible deniability to both ENG and RUS. As a German fighting France, you want England to be strong enough, and much more importantly, your friend enough, to fight France, but not so strong that you can't take them on afterwards. Staying neutral about the Scandinavian Situation gives you plausible deniability to help either side and keep them mad at each other in the long term.

That would be my best explanation for DEN Holding for 66% of this game so far.

Valis, I agree with your analysis on Den, but have to say I think this as a poor choice. At this point Germany have no clear ally, attacked Bel and have a Jugg forming in the East. Supporting England to signal friendship seems the obvious thing to do. Unless you expect to be friend with France, but with that many armies and taking Bel this don't seem likely.

Bump for moves.

Out of town this weekend so I'll post brief comments on this phase.

Autumn 02

Austria - Italy helped you hold Gre so you stay at 4 units and are back from the dead at least for now.

England - The good news is you made excellent moves and sacrificed one center (Swe) for 2 other centers rather than tying up 3-4 units to hold it. The bad news is France is in Irish Sea, Wales, and the Channel. But you have 2 builds coming and he has to disband a unit so too little too late by him on the attack most likely.

France - these moves would look great after a Spring turn but not nearly as powerful in the autumn when you will now have to get rid of a unit and England can build 2 reinforcements. Tremendous position still but not enough power.

Germany - no surprise to see you lose Den. This is yet another reason why it was bad to not help Russia hold Swe earlier. At least you held Bel and don't have to disband anything.

Italy - Much better moves this turn and somehow Turkey did not defend Smy against the attack which was almost certainly coming. His loss is your gain and you were wise to try to mend fences with Austria by helping hold Gre.

Russia - Held/liberated Swe but lost StP. No gain this year in south to offset loss of StP. Turkey losing Smy puts a big dent in the Juggernaut.

Turkey - can't say I understand the decision to not defend Smy against the almost certain attack from EMed. Major step backward from 5 to 4 and now you have Italy in one of your home centers.

bump for beginning 1903. Will put up commentary tonight.

Build commentary for Year 2. Things in the east changed in a hurry. Russia and Turkey looked like they were rolling last year, now back in their heels and with less firepower and poor position. Things in the West shaping up to be interesting too as France has position against England, England has strength and good position vs Germany, and Germany has good position against France but needs to defend against England.

Austria - No builds, but at least no disbands. Now that Italy is helping you rather than attacking you there is opportunity to push back vs Turkey/Russia.

England - A Liv and A Lon. Defensive build against the French units. Bad news for you is he did not disband any of the units surrounding you, so you will likely lose at least one center this year.

France - Disbanded Gas. This leaves you well positioned to grab Liv and/or another English center this year. It does leave Bur vulnerable to a 3vs2 attack by Germany, but he has his own problems to deal with up North so you probably will get away with that.

Germany - Surprised by the retreat to Ska. No builds. French disband in Gas lets you either go on offensive vs France or pull back some units to defend Kie/Ber.

Italy - F Nap. Leaves you well positioned to mount an attack on Turkey or go after France's exposed flank with most units committed to attacking England.

Russia - Disbanded Sev. Units are spread thin, will be tough to hold everything, let alone make any gains in the coming year. Italy taking Smy leaving weaker Turkey hurts Russia almost as much as Turkey.

Turkey - No builds due to failure to cover Smy against Italy. Units are spread out and it will be tough to liberate Smy while holding all other centers.

Power Rankings for end of Year 2
Ascending, strong position - France, Italy
Powerful but likely about to lose some ground - England
Not in much danger but also not well poised to make gains any time soon - Germany
Not out of the woods yet, but rising - Austria
A little out of position and facing an uphill battle - Turkey, Russia

It is the Spring of 1903.

England has built two armies, in LVP and LON. A defensive rush to protect his mainland from the pillaging French forces. England is in a tough position where he's attacked two neighbors and now stabbed by the third. Something has to give.

France disbands Gascony to continue the French assault. Lots of options here for attacks. There's a good chance that Germany rather not fight France here, but it can always be tempting to burst open Burgundy. How will you continue the French attack while keeping your borders secure? Is Italy a threat?

Speaking of Italy, ION s ALB-GRE was a great move in the short term, but it means giving up the convoy. Right now, assuming ION orders that again, VEN, NAP, and TUN are just twiddling their thumbs. Is there a way for you to use ION in a way that frees up those units, or are you locked into this pattern?

Turkey, you too, like England, have enemy units on your mainland. Can you drive them out? If you can, how much must you sacrifice, if anything?

Austria, very simple question: where's the next center coming from? What's progress here?

Russia, good disband. It seems like you and Turkey are friends, by choice or necessity, so that SEV unit wasn't needed whatsoever. You have three units in the north, England has four units in the north, with a SKA German wild card. Hopefully you can get a center out of this with good intuition.

Germany, time to make a choice between France and England diplomatically.

I agree with all of Yale's power rankings except I'd put Italy lower than England and Austria with T/R.

Retreats of the Spring of the 3rd year of the 20th century are being ordered. This is not a trivial retreat so please take your time England.

Unless you're sure of your choice of course

Spring 03 commentary

Austria - Managed to hold your 4 centers and Italy improved his position against Turkey. On the flip side Italy also has two units around Gre right now if he decides to go after you again. But since that would probably cost him Smy most likely he will still be working against Turkey.

England - Pretty awful turn. I expected you to lose some ground this year, but to drop 3 centers in the Spring with little chance to take any back or gain any others is very bad and you may even lose a 4th this turn. The Liv and Lon both attack Wales move is very poor tactically since it takes you out of both if France uses Wales to mount a supported attack on either (which he did). Moving Nth to Hel really compounds things as France can now guarantee holding Liv and Lon without even having to guess at all as to your moves. Plus he doesn't even have to defend Liv if he doesn't want to since it can retreat to Edi if dislodged. Also little hope of liberating Nor without losing StP in the process. Disastrous turn, you will need to make much better moves this turn to have any shot at staying relevant. Sorry to be so harsh, but these moves warrant it.

Retreat (since it already happened) to Yor is probably the best of a bad situation. In theory it allows for 2 unit attack on either Liv or Lon, but in reality if France plays proper defense he can guarantee that neither of those has a shot.

France - Very well played. Disbanding Gas was the right call and you maximized your position against England this turn. With Germany forced to defend against England you have an opportunity to improve your position vs. him or use the breathing room to turn your attentions to Italy. Lots of options from your current position and almost all of them very good.

Germany - You should be able to at least tread water this turn and may even pick up Den or Swe if you gamble and guess right. The bad news is that France is about to expand quickly and is set up decently to go after you next if he so chooses. Also Russia should make some further gains at England's expense next year which means you will be sanwiched between two strong powers.

Italy - Turkey's move to EMed kept you from bouncing and being stuck where you were, so now your fleets are in much better position. Only downside I see is that your armies aren't much use right now. Curious to see how things play out between you and Turkey this turn. Will you both play it safe or will one or both of you gamble and change the balance of power in that conflict?

Russia - Good turn, you should manage to hang onto your Spring gain and there is even a chance you make it two builds. Also a smaller chance that you guess poorly and lose a center but even then you should net stay even this year.

Turkey - Not a fan of these moves. Bul and Ser had almost no chance to accomplish anything with single unit attacks and vacating Aeg for EMed seems to weaken your position unnecessarily. Hard to see you net gaining a center from the current position and if you are not careful you may lose one.

Bump.

Bump for fall 1903 moves.