Note that some of these assumptions are likely wrong, it is just how it looks. But the great thing of a press game is that you can carefully doctor the way is _seems_ to hide the way it _is_.

It's true, I told TMOW he could comment. I regret nothing.

Oh you will, my friend. You will.

So I'm a TA too, so I guess I can give some commentary:

England:
I am not a fan of the Liverpool->Yorkshire move. I used to use it as a rule, but it limits England's options too much for my liking. I understand the reasoning (if France moves to English Channel AND Russia moves to St. Petersburg, it's the only move that guarantees you get Norway w/o losing London) but that scenario is rare.

I much prefer the move to Edinburgh. It lets you convoy with either fleet, which allows the possibility of sneaking a fleet into Denmark or Belgium, or into Skag, or whatever. You have only one real option for your Fall orders.


France:
You put a LOT of trust toward your northern neighbors, and I can only guess you are laying the groundwork for a Western Triple. If so, not all is bad, and you did manage to delay Italy a bit... but he will be in Tunis and you will be in Portugal. You may have been better served doing something like:

F Brest -> Mid-Atlantic
A Marseilles -> Spain
A Paris->Gascony

You then could have a fleet in Spain (South Coast) and still cover Marseilles, Paris, or Brest, depending on any possible stabs. Now you will be at a disadvantage against Italy, especially if you can't open up Marseilles to a fleet build. In fact, you may want to consider unconventional strategy here, involving convoys. HINT.

Germany:
Good opening, and if this is indeed a WT, you will be getting the 3-build year that Germany needs to keep the alliance successful. The decision now is whether or not to tap Sweden. The move to St. Petersburg will factor into your success: is Russia your friend, or your foe? Think about this before you decide on Sweden.

Russia:
I hope you are friendly with either Austria or Turkey. If not, you could (!!!) not get a build this year. Rumania is tough to take without an army in Galicia or Ukraine, and will leave you potentially vulnerable to Turkey.

You need to make sure Germany lets you into Sweden, if at all possible.

Italy:
Ouch on the double bounce. I don't like risking that happening as a rule, but this is one instance where it isn't terribly game-ending. An army in Apulia would have given you more option, but you could still try to sneak into Greece or Trieste, or move into Piedmont again, take Tunis, etc. You have options for now, which is a plus for Italy.

You should decide who your friends are, and if you fear France, Austria, or Turkey more.

Austria:
As far as openings go, it is not that bad. You have an assured no-loss year with two builds, potential Italian friendship, and no major threat from Russia. In fact, you could even make a friend there, although it might leave you without Greece. You have options, and no clear enemy immediately, which is good. You need to work some Diplomacy and find an ally.

Moving forward: The WT may be forming, so find an ally who can help with that.

Turkey:
Good, standard opening. You have to decide which of your neighbors are your best chance at long-term success and gain. Do you make a grab for Greece? Do you help Russia into Rumania and shift your fleet to Constantinople? Do you ask Austria for support into Rumania?

Diplomacy for you, too, is important.

Spring 1901 Grades:
England: B
France: A-
Germany: A
Russia: B-
Italy: C+
Austria: A
Turkey: A-

bump.

Interesting developments!

Fall 1902:

England:
With Russia opening north you made the only move you could. However, Germany let him into Sweden, which I find to be particularly troubling. Could the (potential) Western Triple have already broken down? Or maybe this was a more conventional E/F alliance. Either way, you face Russian units in Sweden, Finland, and St. Petersburg, and a quite-possibly-hostile Germany with two builds.

You need to reach out and find some help, quick. Especially with France so far away from the fighting, you are isolated and in some trouble.

France:
You picked up on the convoy, good job. You have a lot of options now. Do you continue with your alliance with England, or do you stab? Move against Germany or Italy? Do you convoy again somewhere?

Consider your allies and make your choices with builds. This is where looking across the board can be useful. Is Italy likely to be a problem? Russia? How does Sweden affect you? All questions you need to consider and address in press.

Germany:
You picked up three builds, gained some goodwill from Russia, and perhaps have an arrangement with France. Not an awful year, but you definitely have ticked off England a bit. That's manageable though. Looking forward, you need to decide if the Russo-Austrian alliance is good for you; if England is going to forgive; and if France is going to continue to be passive.

Make some careful negotiations and figure out who you trust. Your builds will be hugely important.

Russia:
You got a break from Germany and found an ally in Austria. I don't like the fleet in Sevastopol, typically, but otherwise you wouldn't have gotten in. That's fine. Do you now build a fleet in Sevastopol? That would anger Turkey, surely, but do you need him if you have Austria?

Consider this and the north. Norway looks pretty vulnerable to you, even more so depending on France and Germany. I think there is a clear way to move forward here, but finding it is up to you

Italy:
I don't get where you're going with all this. Maybe the Piedmont move was pre-arranged with France, maybe not, but you've pissed off 2/3 of your neighbors, and have no clear ally. You need to get things together and stop wasting your armies' moves.

Austria:
Was Rumania the price to pay for an ally? A steep one, now Turkey will be on you too. I would have focused on Greece - it was unlikely Turkey moved to Rumania, in my opinion, but it is what it is. Regroup and plan things out, maybe reach out to Italy and Turkey.

Turkey:
Russia and Austria are collaborating, so you need to find some friends. Italy seems like a likely ally for you for now. Do you need to worry about Sevastopol?

You, too, need to turn to press for answers.

Fall 1902 Grades:
England: A
France: A
Germany: A (if no WT) / C (if WT)
Russia: A
Italy: C
Austria: B
Turkey: B

Pre-1902 Power Rankings:

Going Strong: France, Germany
You two are in prime positions to fight any power on the board, with no clear enemies, and lots of options. A lack of fighting between you may be part of this, but it's clear that France and Germany will make 1902 interesting.

Power Players: Russia, Austria, England
All three of you made gains, but have some concerns and clear enemies. Not all is lost, though, and any of you could have a big 1902.

A Bit Nervous: Italy, Turkey
Shaky 1901 has made life... interesting, for both of you. Time to turn things around.

Here is my TA analysis. I expect some disagreement among the commenters on this years developments:

Fall 1901

In no particular order :

GERMANY : You are my hero. You managed to get 3 SC’s in 1901 and appear to have multiple friends and no aggressive enemies. Sure England might be a little perturbed you didn’t bounce Russia but what’s he going to do about it as that gives Russia a build in St Pete and keeps Russia/England locked in conflict with each courting you for support in their 3v3 unit battle. Or could the bounce have been done with England’s blessing to hide the Western Triple? In either case….I am insanely excited to see what you do in 1902 as I think you will be the pebble that creates waves.

ENGLAND : Congratulations on making the only move open to you. I hope you have some plans in mind for 1902 because it appears that Russia will be coming full bore at you and Germany is going to be a beast. I am curious how you feel about the no bounce in Sweden. If it’s not part of some grander plan, then Germany pretty much boxed you into a 3v3 stalemate while also boxing in your build.

FRANCE : I will admit, I have never seen that before. My instinctive reaction was : “WTF was that?” but upon looking at possible Builds and Moves in 1902, I think there are some interesting possibilities. I won’t expand on that as I don’t want to ruin anything for you, but I haven’t condemned you yet.
You have placed A LOT of faith in your German neighbor. You will either look the fool or the genius next year.

ITALY : Unlike Germany and France, you are coming across as a man without a plan. You attacked France in Spring, then Austria in Fall. You have two units which have failed to move.

You were lambasted in Spring 1901 due to your choice of moving your units in a chain. I agree with that lambasting. However, in Fall 1901, facing a possible Western Triple (which means France comes your way) you 100% wanted to move to Piedmont again. A bounce would have meant France would have unhappily had an army sitting in Marseilles when he wanted to build a fleet.

AUSTRIA : You traded Greece for a passive Russia and possible ally against Turkey. A lot of people would disagree with me but I think it’s probably a fair trade-off depending on what your plans are. You are still in a position to take it next year. You are also now in a position to demand Russia return the favor to keep you passive towards him. If only Italy wasn’t a pain in your ass, but he seems whimsical so get him turned around the other way.

RUSSIA: Despite the fact you got 2 builds this year and appear to have a Frenemy in Austria….I am concerned for you. Scandanavia is shaping up to be a stalemate with Germany playing tiebreaker, Turkey will be building in Ankara which is always bad news, you need Austria more than Austria needs you and Germany has a lot of muscle and looking for someplace soft to hit.
You need to find a way to remove or redirect half those threats or you will be the first one eliminated.

I think I know where you intend to build based on your movements, and I like how you thought to your build phase in your Fall 1901 movements.

TURKEY : Much like Italy, I am not sure if you had a plan. Since Russia opened North, you have to assume he wasn’t going to be much help to you against Austria. His fleet in Rumania in virtually useless to you and his weakened state in the south makes him somewhat Austria lackey.

I would have rather have seen your fleet in Black (no chance Russia would give up Rumania to bounce you) which would leave Russia a little bit beholden to you. It also would give you some freedom of building either a fleet or army in Smyrna depending on how things look at the end of 1901. Smyrna is a magical place for Turkey and having that be your build is really nice.

Alright, guess I'm gonna do this too.

FRANCE - A
I like the convoy, both because it's interesting and because a fleet in MAO is a useful thing to have this early, wherever it happens to be headed. I really don't know enough about what's happening in the West to say anything else with confidence, so I'm just going to leave it at that.

AUSTRIA - A-
You had a pretty good first year. Getting Russia's fleet into Rumania rather than the army is pretty big. You also only got one build and seem to have two enemies, which is what drops you from A to A-, but an A/R has a big leg up on an I/T right now if that's the way the East is headed.

ENGLAND - B+
You haven't really done anything wrong, but having two neighbors with that many builds and committing yourself to a fight with another strong power leaves you out of A territory, if only by a little bit. You have a lot of options open to you, but again I can't really say much more without what's going on with you, France, and Germany.

GERMANY B-
Three builds is always good, but for Germany it can often be as much of a curse as it is a blessing. This doesn't seem to be the case here, as England seems to have picked an enemy and thus given you leverage on one side, and France has a much better position to fight any of his neighbors who aren't you. The main thing dragging my grade down for you is that this looks Western Tripleish, and triples often end poorly for whoever's in the middle.

RUSSIA - C+
You've got two builds and an ally in Austria, but the fleet in Rumania limits your tactical options to such an extent that it limits your diplomatic ones as well, and you're going to have to devote units to Scandinavia early. The position's still a decent one, but things could go downhill quickly.

Italy - D
Yeah, you seem to have pissed off both of your neighbors and not gotten anything to show for it. Italy benefits from being able to do very little in the early game and still do well, so it's not as bad as it would be with another power, but you need to get your shit together in a hurry or things are not going to go well for you.

TURKEY - F
Oh, buddy. Russian fleet in Rumania, you bounced Austria in Greece, and you don't even have the Black Sea. Things do not look good for you. You should be talking a lot over the next few days.

Would apppear Chaqa/Ghug and I disagree some on Englands situation and some on Germanys, although I can see good arguements for both opinions.

This is a good excercise for players to view multiple viewpoints of the same situation and compare them to your own.

Question for you two : Why does Germany rank lower in your eyes in a Western Triple situation? Was there a situation in which Germany would rank higher in a WT?

My split may be a bit harsh on the grade. Probably should be more like:
A ( no WT) / B (WT)

I was thinking if there is a WT, he wants Sweden neutral, but if not, he's good. I think Germany has a very strong position.

Some great commentary above. Although I think SC count is not a good way to rate positions, I'd still say Germany is in the best position here (which is I think an agreement with dyager).

I have more to say on this, but since it involves specific builds and moves, I might wait until after the spring to post it. I don't want to influence the game.

A couple of specific comments:

Italy, I don't know why you'd order Ven->Tri this turn. It's clear that Austria will order Vie->Tri, as he has nothing else sensible to do with that army. I'm hope that your orders were the result of someone else's diplomacy leading you to think that they were a good idea.

France, love your work with the convoy. If the quiet along your northern border is the result of your diplomacy, then I think you should be very pleased with yourself.

I really dislike the Western Triple as an alliance. Especially so from Germany's perspective, because the German always ends up dying. If there's not a WT, Germany's doing a lot better in my mind. That's all there really is to it. I also hate playing Germany, which might be biasing me a little bit.

I also think that triple alliances are much more common in FTF games- where you have the advantage of knowing whether or not your allies have been conspiring together or not. Paranoia tends to break them up online.

I wonder if that makes them more effective, though, because they're less expected?

In the Full Disclosure game when I was Germany, I turned an early EF against me into a Western Triple, which worked out all right for me. We got Austria to help us in the east, and it ended in a 4-Way because there was no way I was going after Austria unless England/France stabbed each other. Which they didn't, so the game ended.

That's just because you were surrounded by a Juggernaut and an E/F though, of course a WT is a better option. Plus, you had a super amazing Austria to make it possible.

not sure if build phases get comments, but just to keep this relevant BUMP

1901-02 Builds:

About standard all around. Based off what I see, I think a big stab is coming.

Okay so phase about to go through in an hour. Is anyone who can stop it around, and will they still be here 5 mins before deadline? We're sort of missing a set of moves it seems, so if we could get an emergency pause if it becomes an emergency, that would be nice. Also, bumping to keep this up, since phase goes through (hopefully) in an hour.

Email [email protected].

Oh right thanks.

I hope this gets paused. It would be a shame to see this game spoiled by an early NMR.

bump, english nmr.

Yeah, so, this sucks.

bump

I'll post something on Spring 1902 tomorrow. Too bad to see that NMR.

That being said, NMRs occasionally do happen, including in high-level games. This is an excellent opportunity to examine the implications of an NMR, both for the player in question and the other players.

b u m p s