So, there are a couple people who I would expect better results from. DeathLlama, TrPrado and Jeff Kuta, who have all been on fairly consistently since the start, without really saying much of any use. Mostly reactive play, few pieces of actual analysis of any sort, and overly long reads posts that are a summary of a couple actions by each player, with a bit of hedging to make it longer. DeathLlama less so, but there was a somewhat disconcerting episode where Death had a couple minor reads, and then expressed a mild dislike of me, and said he would put together a case. Later, a complete reads post appeared, and I wasn't even on it. I was added later, as a hedged NULL read. As for Prado and Kuta, they've been dropping their votes in some of the easiest places, and have been lurking in plain sight, mostly be lazily voting lurkers. The other active players I have few to no reservations about yet. Guak has done more than I'd expect, and less than I'd like.

As for players who arrived later or haven't been too talkative, well, there's Lucland, who has been a bit abrasive, but hasn't done too much else that I've seen, there's slacker, who I would be remiss in not mentioning after his stunt with the entirely unexplained vote that is contrary to earlier reads, and Saladin, who wasted a fair bit of our time, and I don't remember him making any actually substantive posts.

If you're not included in this post, I've either forgotten you're playing, or you're doing okay. It should be reasonably easy to tell which one you are.

@Jeff: what I hate about your list is that you just sum up what everybody has done in the game but do not explain why those actions should be viewed as scummy or townish.

After that crosspost, I guess Espi actually was trying to find someone who would pay attention to him...in order to try to get a townclear by interacting with them. That's kind of the epitome of buddying, and Espi admits it.

*sigh*

Well, I'm keeping my vote on TrPrado for the next few hours. If I need to join a wagon to get a lynch, it'll be against Espi.

Has Yoyo done any scumhunting so far?

A. Yes
B. No

Answer: B

@Phil - I saw you making a ton of short posts, which I didn't recall being your playstyle, but you've since started making posts with more substance, meaning I withdrew my scumread

Ah, yes, Yoyo. A prime example of a person that I entirely forgot was playing, despite specifically paying attention to him during my reread. Masterful lurking. I knew I had missed someone in my report.

@guak: Well I could do what you typically do and lurk forever until you think you've found that one gotcha moment and then tunnel. I also guess you didn't bother seeing my interpretations as "dumbtells" or "scumslips" or "buddys" or "driving discussion"?

It is still D1. The important thing is to get a lynch, and try as best we can to get scum. I haven't seen anything blatant that I am not willing to write off as newbishness, so I'm not calling it out. TrPrado seems slippery to me, so he has my vote. That's about it.

I firmly believe that on day 1, all votes are random. If anyone has any statistics to show otherwise, I would love to see them, but from what I've seen so far, I believe the statistics here on webdip back me up.

I believe that day 2's votes will not be random, because we'll have an idea of who pissed off who, and who thinks who is a threat from day one, and that information IN COMBINATION with the first night's kill actually tells us something -- before that, we have nothing. On day 2, I will vote to lynch the person I suspect the most -- prior to day 2, I can't logically suspect anyone.

It occurs to me that there's another reason to vote on day 1: to kill someone you don't want to put up with for the rest of the game, while killing someone who might be innocent is still debatably good strategy. I'd change my vote now to do that, if anyone I disliked had a chance of being lynched today.

There are 12 players other than myself, and three of them are mafia. That means that there's a 1 in 4 chance that Espi is mafia, versus a 0 in 1 chance that I'm mafia (from my perspective). Killing Espi (from my perspective) has a chance of killing a mafia member, whereas killing me (from my perspective) does not.

I'm required to further my own win condition, which says that at least one innocent lives to the end of the game -- it does not say that *I* have to live to the end of the game. If I knew that Espi were innocent, I could die to save him. But since I do not know that he's innocent, and I do know that I'm innocent, and I also know that somebody is going to die no matter what, I'm required to do what I can to ensure that it's him instead of me. So ##VOTE Espi.

I'd like to say that even though I'm voting for Espi, I still believe that there's no evidence against him whatsoever, and that he's as likely to be mafia as any of you. If it weren't down to him or me, I would never vote for him.

Has Yoyo done any scumhunting ever?

I think the answer for that would be B too.

Now, americanslacker has just made a very stupid vote for me that is bound to get him lynched after I flip town today. I urge the town to look at TrPrado before americanslacker tomorrow because americanslacker is clearly a noob that has no idea what he is playing at. He could still be scum, but is far less dangerous than TrPrado. I am happy to be the first lynch because I am a good info lynch. TrPrado will be shown as scum after I flip, and that makes me happy.

For now, ##VOTE TrPrado scum read #1. I will be building a case shortly on him. Will take me some time

"If I am Mafia I am the biggest link right now, I would think they would be trying to bus me right now"

Remember that, with one power role who's probably been smart enough not to reveal themselves and a bunch of other candidates, mafia are going to try not to get Espi (if he's scum) lynched day one. Making slacker's vote very scummy.

##CALL GM: Can we get an official vote count?

@SS good reason, but now there is another problem. guak and I are tied unless Jeff, or someone else voting for you shifts vote. If I shift vote, I have already said what happens. Luckily for you all, I do not want a no lynch, so I will not try to vote a tie to spare myself. So Yoyo, guak, bo and Jeff. One of you has to shift their vote onto either me or guak (I suggest me unless you really think that guak is scum) so that we can have a clear winner.

"I believe that day 2's votes will not be random, because we'll have an idea of who pissed off who, and who thinks who is a threat from day one, and that information IN COMBINATION with the first night's kill actually tells us something"

The first night's kill is absurdly WIFOM. Mafia can, in addition to picking off their accusers one by one, go after experienced players or try to work out who the cop is. It's pretty worthless except if you're mafia. Otherwise, we already have a lot of information to decide a good lynch

@Saladin: D1 has worst odds than random. Mafia manipulates the vote so they get a town kill more often than not.

The D1 vs D2 thing only applies if you lynch someone D1. If not, D2 is equally worse than random as D1.

Also, while your logic would be correct regarding the killing of unlikeables, it is not a good idea to vote for useless/hateable people. You should vote for those you think have the highest chance of flipping scum. If you are wrong, well shit happens, but you should definitely be voting for someone you think is scum right now, and not doing a 'survivor vote' because there is still plenty of time left.

If ghug doesn't, I'll post an official vote count in 59 minutes.

You have 359 minutes left in the phase.

@guak, I can shift my vote with you on Tr which makes Tr 3, and me and you 4, but what makes you dying a good info lynch, and what makes you feel that you can flip town today?

@DL, you think that the Mafia might be trying to save me?

SaladinSmith: "Who is Guak? Is he knew"

Why are you voting Espi over Guak when both are lynch candidates and Guak is further ahead of you? Why are you voting to save yourself when there are six hours left?

There are still almost six hours until EOD. Lots of game to be played. For all we know now, a completely new wagon could form and win.

UNOFFICIAL VOTE TALLY:
guak (4): Lucland, DeathLlama9, Trprado, americaslacker
Espi (4): phil_a_s, Balki Bartokomous, ND, SaladinSmith
SaladinSmith (2): Yoyoyozo, bo_sox48
TrPrado (2): Jeff Kuta, guak
americaslacker (1): Espi

@Espi - yes, if you're scum they should be competent enough to try and not get a partner lynched d1

@SS: If you do not think there is any evidence against Espi why vote for him? Why not just pull a name out of a hat?

@Jeff: I have no idea what a dumbtell is or how that is supposed to be helpful. Also, you are not saying what does driving discussion mean to you or why the scumslips are scumslips. My point is that you are giving opinions but are not supporting those opinions with argumentative logic so that others can decide for themselves whether there is truth behind those reads or not.

So, instead of giving us a long list of reads with no supporting evidence, I would prefer we get 2 or 3 well supported reads.

guak, I really don't think you're likely to get lynched day 1. I, for one, prefer either of the two other current main lynches to yours, and will vote based on that, and I would be surprised if I were alone in this.

Espi, ties only matter in the last 10 minutes. About half of us are going to be on during the end, and I'm sure we can prevent a tie.

Saladin, in addition to what DL said, mafia could just random-kill to really throw us off.

@Espi: do whatever you want, I am happy to die because when I flip town all these idiots voting for me will realize how dumb they have been. If I don't die today, I will be NK'd anyway, so it doesn't even matter as I won't be around long enough to help figure out this game. Only certain thing so far is that TrPrado has been the difference maker in my chase and is thus the most likely to flip scum in my opinion

@phil, guak is one of the current 2 main lynches, and there are only 4 people who could switch their votes. I think my camp is fairly convinced I am the Mafia so if they switch I will be very surprised.

Case building now, will be back soon, will answer any questions afterwards

Phil, who exactly is the other main wagon besides Guak/Espi

So guak is trying to save himself with OMGUS and following Jeff around again? Cute. I'll be back in an hour or 2 and will have more time then.

@guak, if you end up being scum, I am going to hate trusting you so much right now.