Reads List 1
I have detailed reads on three people I consider my top suspects for scumteam: Espi, Yoyo, TrPrado. I present them in order of my level of certainty, from most certain to least certain. For everyone else, I have not done the time to develop analysis on them that would be helpful beyond what I’ve already said. Though, I haven’t seen anything that flagged them for me and caused me to follow-up.
(1) Espi - SCUM
I’ve shared specific thoughts about Espi on pages 6, 8, 10, and 11. Since then, he has done basically the following:
- posted a list of reads on page 11 that includes no evidence, no page citations, no strong positions, a lot of buddying to me, ND, and bo sox, and the baffling statement that he “like[s] a lot of the posts that [Yoyo] makes”;
- Complimented me on page 11 (so we know he’s smart!);
- Posted about DeathLlama at the bottom of page 11, in an apparent attempt to point out scummy behavior, but includes only vague, wishy-washy assertions, and no evidence.
- Posted a vote count and some generally unhelpful questions at 12;
- Told me at 13 that he would do the best to live up to my expectations;
- Buddied further to Bo, me, and ND at 15, while arguing about to whom he has buddied up the most;
- Posted a helpful (though general) and inquisitive welcome to the aptly named Americaslacker at 16
Yoyo posted a defense of Espi at 15, but I didn’t find it convincing. There are three main reasons:
(1) I don’t think Yoyo’s critique of Exhibit 1 responds to my argument, which is about the Espi post on page 1 on people looking back at the game after it’s over. I think the post is consistent with mafia tossing a *wink *wink to after game reviewer who would be well aware of the mafioso’s actual role. It was subtle, and not overt gloating in the moment; it was “latent gloating.” I think the post is inconsistent with townie, who wouldn’t really have at top of mind the after game reviewer curious to know what a particular vanilla townie said on page 1 about his role.
(2) Yoyo dismisses Exhibit 3, (Espi’s comment “On the small chance that one of the newbies is the Cop, we might as well give them some tips”) as being the same as Exhibit 2, and therefore a ploy by me to make my analysis look longer and more robust than it is in reality. Yoyo goes so far as to say to me “running out of ideas?” I don’t think I need to defend the effort and substance in my detailed post about Espi, so I’ll get tight to another point on Exhibit 3. I think there is ample evidence that Espi is pursuing the defense that I and others have left him, that he’s just clueless and new. Exhibit 3, written by Espi before any of these criticisms were raised, is strong evidence that Espi’s cluelessness is a disguise. In Exhibit 3 (page 1), Espi openly explains away his dumbtell by saying he was trying to “give [] tips” to “the newbies.” This is a sharp contradiction with his more recent attempts to emphasize his own inexperience.
(3) Yoyo tries to excuse Espi’s “target me so I’m clear” line of posts by asking “how is it a scumtell?” (ignoring my several reasons), blaming me for not questioning Espi about this line of posts (ignoring my several questions throughout this thread to Espi about this line of posts before I posted my analysis), and then blaming the town for not explaining to Espi sooner that his methods were flawed. I think a lot of people have tried to explain to Espi why his methods are flawed. But he is not the town’s lynch target because his methods are flawed. He is the town’s lynch target because many of his posts appear more likely to be part of a manufactured scumhunt than an authentic scumhunt.
@Town, I think it’s important that we lynch the person who is most likely to be mafia today. I believe that is Espi by a large margin for all the reasons I’ve listed.
@Espi, I expect you to be lynched on Day 1. If you are truly misguided town, you can still win the game if town wins. If your “target me so we can learn information” gambit is an authentic tool, please share your findings before 6:00pm ET, as I don’t believe you’ll have an opportunity to share them after that.
(2) Yoyoyozo SCUM (contingent on Espi flipping SCUM)
I appreciate that Yoyo took the time to respond to my Espi post point-by-point, and in detail. I don’t think Yoyo’s rebuttal was convincing, for the reasons I state above.
As I’ve noted (page 11), I am troubled by Yoyo’s efforts to defend Espi. As I pointed out in my critique of Yoyo I think that Yoyo initially tried to dismiss the critiques of Espi as misguided and something to revisit later without engaging with the critiques at all. That strikes me as a mafia effort to sweep the discussion of the poor teammate under the rug and move on. Then when it was clear that wouldn’t work, Yoyo put in the effort to engage, in detail. I can’t fault Yoyo for putting in the time to defend Espi; I asked him to do that after all. But I think Yoyo’s defense of Espi is very weak, and I would be surprised if a decent player picked up that defense without knowing Espi’s role.
All that said, my read of Yoyo as scum is contingent on Espi flipping scum. If Espi flips town, then Yoyo’s actions couldn’t have been motivated by an interest in saving a partner, and in that case many of my arguments against Yoyo to date are wrong.
(3) TrPrado – SCUM
Comes out of the gates with 5 pages filled with jokes and substanceless posts. Seems to be using the thread more as a discussion forum. Then at page 6, he begins to take positions about who he “trusts” and also assumes the role of lurking police – commenting on who is online, who has posted, and who has been helpful to town. Also shifts his vote around a lot, and posts a reads list, both of which focus on who has been participating, and who has been lurking. I don’t really have a problem with any of it. Encouraging lurkers to participate is good for town, and doing it by switching your vote around is fine. Not my approach, but not mafia-indicative.
Posts a fairly long review of Phil at page 9 with the conclusion “Overall, this doesn't really change the NULL read. There isn't much actual substance to work with here, especially since the bulk of his posts were all on a single page (3).” I don’t understand why you would post such a long description of activity when you admit that it isn’t helpful and doesn’t change your read from Null. Seems like a waste of real estate.
At 10, TrPrado posts that he’s “inclined to agree with Yoyo's assertion re: Espi” and he’s “giving Espi the benefit of the doubt since there was also that serious chance of being town.” “So let's wait and see if a better lynch comes up.” I’d really like to see some support and analysis for agreement like this. I don’t understand why anyone would agree with Yoyo’s unsupported assertions and I don’t think that anyone should give anyone “the benefit of the doubt.” I think that’s a good excuse to ignore or distract from the limited clues he have to analyze at this stage of the game.
At page 13, regarding Espi, TrPrado says: “I have called him out and put pressure on him. It's just that I'm not convinced by BB's case.” Fine, @TrPrado, but tell us why.
Then on page 15 says: “bo: I did like like your case on Espi. I also liked phil's. Your case still left the ambiguity available for new town, but then phil's had the quality of reasoning of Espi's behavior. There is still the chance of Espi being town, but he has moved a bit down the path of scum for me.”
@TrPrado, I really think you need to explain your change in thinking between your posts on pages 13 and 15. Neither Phil nor Bo posted about Espi between those two posts of yours. What happened here? Also, what was it about Phil's and Bo’s cases that was persuasive to you?
@Town, my thinking here is that TrPrado had tried to subtly shift attention from Espi (as Yoyo did as well), but by page 15 realizes that Espi is in quite a bit of trouble and begins hedging. He's still not voting for Espi, but I think he will if he sees that the ship is going down.
Reads as scum to me for two reasons: (1) tried to get the town to move on from Espi without making a case or using good evidence and analysis, (2) begins hedging on Espi at 15 without anything changing. I’m not bothered by the vote switching, but I think he’s overdone the lurker police role and it’s time for him to make some substantive posts about who is mafia, rather than simply commenting on who is making substantive posts. I would not support an TrPrado lynch today, as I think Espi is a much better option, but I encourage the town to watch TrPrado carefully.
Balki Bartokomous – devilishly handsome, fearless, chiseled forearms, overall badass, the kind of guy you want to bring home to Mom, and most likely to be fearkilled by chicken-shit hacker mafia who can’t handle him bringing the truth.
Everyone else – Null.
I plan to look carefully at guak and Saladin today in time for the vote since they have drawn the attention of others.
NOTE: I have some concern that my reads are too influenced by people’s reactions to the Espi case, and I admit that the Espi case, and people’s reactions to it, are driving a lot of my analysis. If I am wrong about Espi, I have to do quite a bit of work to re-read and reconsider.
Live and Let Live
no ingame message 10minutes deadline
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