Theory 1 - mafia are among guak, Vecna and ND. They were fine with the lynch being between town targets today. They checked out, knowing they weren't on the line. Follows closely with the all lurker mafia theory.

Theory 2 - mafia were among swing votes for Jamiet. That's basically between krellin and captain. Captain did a very, very abrupt 180 on his vote for me, and I'd like to know why. @Captain - why didn't you lynch me? What changed your mind, because clearly my arguments didn't.

Add any other theories to these when you come up with them.

@goldy I'm reading all the posts and judging each person based on what they posted. At EoD i'm voting for 'y top scum read.

Fuck off Goldie. I've backed Jamie. I called him out on his dumbassery!! HE TRIED TO TIE HE VOTE. How can anyone accept that as town behavior? He's too intelligent for that.... Or so I thought!

Don't throw me under you're issue bus - check the record. I any a random unexplained seeing vote!!

I tried for fuck head REEDER all day.

Fuck off, man seriously!!

If you are going to include me in your theory MAKE A CASE!!

Reeder shut the hell up. You are an imbecile

RIP Jamiet

sorry everyone I fell asleep on my couch as this clicked towards the end. I still wouldn't have moved my vote off Vecna. Vecna is scum.

relax krellin. I'm just trying to make theories explaining vote behavior today. I'm trying to go through every person and see if I can theorize why their voting behavior is scummy. Then I'll take the strongest of those arguments, put it in the context of posts and prior behavior, and then make a case. Just step one of the process.

Sorry Goldie. I'm pissed, and nor in the mood for random "theories" that slander my name.

I'll chill. I've for my vote for tomorrow ready to go anyway. And it doesn't matter, because as always you'll all just ignore me.

Gold - You didn't ask me to read back; you asked me to find a specific post, so I skimmed until I found that and then read that specific one. There wasn't enough time for me to read back properly anyhow.

I still would've lynched you over Jamiet yesterday, but with Jamiet vote-switching to try to tie it up I couldn't lynch you without additional support, which wasn't happening. I was content with with a Jamiet lynch for the reasons I laid out in my case against you both in my earlier post. Although the collusion element was gone from my reasoning, it doesn't change the fact that Jamiet was trying to press my lynch without looking like he was trying to press my lynch, and that he was advocating for the lynch of the Cop over the Copscans.

Speaking of which, as I said, I have not properly read back yet, so did you ever address my case? If so, please point me to the post. If not, why did you do what you did at EOD3?

ND, if there's no chance of lynching someone, voting for them anyway is a wasted vote. You know this.

Why is there no chance?

I'm talking about yesterday. Feel free to advocate for his lynching again tomorrow, but don't be proud about not moving your vote off and putting it to use.

Full Reads

1. ghug - despite my better judgement, ghug has played like a prime candidate to be scanned all game. His attitude has been fairly lazy but he did accurately guess xorxes and warden based on behavior, and I cant imagine ghug would pass up an opportunity to find scum, his lack of involvement in the EOD is unusual, he was on both the y2k, and ObGYN wagons, but then again so was I. He did not read Jamiet but that in and of itself is not an indictment on ghug as Jamiet played very strange all game between the gambling shit, and the self suicidal behavior. I think his(ghug) clarity on the game has been muddied to some extent. This could signal that he just wants everyone to do the work for him, which I just dont really understand from an expert player at this game. Slight Town.

2. guak - I think guak has actually taken lazy-ness to a whole new era. Between his lack of involvement in much of anything, and his pass the buck attititude, guak has essentially just blamed everyone else for everything that keeps happening. “this town is a bunch of idiots”. He is travelling from one obsession to the next referring to his townyness as “unquestioned" by everyone. I dont buy it.
Slight Scum

3. ND - His cases are detailed, ambitious and almost too good. I am concerned that ND has tunnel vision for whatever character challenges him. He exhibits this type of behavior at specific times in the game, and gets defensive when anyone ever brings it up. He also is mentioned in yoyo’s opening post in regards to the M13 dream team, where the only names on the list of M13 Maf squad were Balki (deceased N1), Uclabb(not in the game), Toemato (banished from the land), and yoyo(dead scumbag). This combined with ND’s presence on the Page 1, nearly first post makes me wonder about him. -Null, but I may have to make a case and compare it to his M13 behavior.

4. reedeer1 - I cannot tell if this guy is just the scummiest looking towny in history or what but there is likely a bloodthirsty wagon coming your way buddy. I really hope you stop lurking and give us something or value at this point because your behavior on the EOD wagons was dodgy.
-Possible Scum

5. Meme - I want a full explanation from you about why my suggestion was mathematically suboptimal for town. We did not have to be in this situation we could have 1 more town than we do. I want to know why you behaved as you did at EOD with radical vote swings. Explain your mylo vs lylo speech and why you first were trying to help tie the vote and then not.
- Slight scum

6. Goldfinger - Your sudden shift from talking to me, saying I am town, and then opting to target the people who failed to tie the wagon seems contradictory. First you spent the entire day talking about why killing Jamiet was essential. Then you flopped to reedeer1, then accused everyone else around you of targeting two townies. If you believed Jamiet was a towny why then were you voting him?
- Null, his EOD and his behavior is confusing

7. Vecna - you still remain among my top town reads. I think you have kept a low profile at EOD however, and you have not produced much in the way of significant posting or ideas since early on. You did several big cases including one on Goldy at one point. Your EOD presence on reedeer1 tells me you had hoped that wagon would take off but didn’t care if it did or not.
-Slight Town but its fading a bit.

8. krellin - You have become unhinged and are in full on rabid attack mode. This is not the time to be calling people worthless and making personal attacks. If you think someone is scum thats fine but you’ve been doing this all game and its really becoming rude. I think you are likely town after all this bullshit I have had to listen to from you all game, but I still see bits of distraction and obstruction in your behavior.
-Null

9. Myself - I think my plan to at least try to keep more people alive was good in theory. Now the math WCS is back to 6-2, 4-2, 2-2 loss. We could try my idea again, by the way I sincerely doubt we will get it wrong today.
Back to my point I dont know someone please explain how the math works and why. Maybe meme is right, All I know is if we dont get it right tomorrow we are getting down to a big clusterfuck of re-reads in an already almost 200 page game. putting together a case on anyone at that point will be hard. I apologize if you dont feel I have been helpful, I have not been in a late game situation like this before and I plan to put a case together on someone “other” than reedeer1 since it seems like everyones just frothing for his death. A case on meme(follow up to ND’s), guak, or ND is overdue.
-Town

@Ghug: I don't understand why I have to move my vote off someone if I am confident that they are scum. That's stupid. I am not going to vote for someone that I have townread (Jamiet) or was nullish on (Gold). Don't ask me to do something I find ethically wrong.

ND, don't give me crap about ethics. We had six people voting at EoD. If all the people not voting were town, that means that just one of the remaining townies had to be wrong to convince a scum lynch. You need to pick one of the remaining wagons to latch onto or the scum have too much control. This concept isn't that difficult and you've played a lot of mafia.

My perception on voting is consistent. I always vote my highest scumread and only very RARELY switch and only if I have good reason. I saw no reason to switch today and I fell asleep so couldn't switch even if I wanted too (but I didn't).

@bb

"then accused everyone else around you of targeting two townies. If you believed Jamiet was a towny why then were you voting him?"

I believe you're referring to my post with five minutes to go, saying that if Jamiet flips town, then there's a double town wagon and he and I did a horrible job this game? I'll admit around ~3-5 minutes before EOD I knew in my gut Jamiet was town, but the only viable alternative was me. For some reason captain and the others active online were very, very against a redeer vote.

Up until that point, you have to admit his behavior was scummy. He was constantly PR fishing.

ND, let me make this very clear for you then: Your perception on voting is wrong, and actively hurts the town. Please change it.

Is there a way to commit suicide? that way you guys don't waste a lintch on me? how about tomorrow, I don't vote, that way I get mod killed, and then you can lynch a mafia instead.

reedeer, you don't win with your team if you do that.

but does my team win?

Well, if they succeed in meeting their win condition, yes.

You don't win with your team because it's considered unsportsmanlike though.

I can assure you reedeer1 no team would feel proud of themselves winning that way. This is meant to be a fun game. Nobody here is going to actually go and become morbidly depressed if they don't win.

We have rules about game throwing which are usually applied a bit liberally but consider that if there was both a town modkill and a town mislynch on the same day, you basically just threw the game AGAINST your team instead.

Play to win man, and prove your innocence if you can.

Ok, but it was a good idea for a second. And I'm sure I'm not the first to have it.

@brainbomb you state reedeer1 is your top scumread, so why wasnt your vote on him last day? There was an active wagon FORMING ON YOUR TOP SCUMREAD, and instead you vote on someone else. And dont give me that crap that the one message reedeer1 posting inbetween changed your opinion on him. i want proper reasoning.

@All, about my EOD absence - Captain is right that im in the timezone that EOD is at midnight. If im at work all day, the last 6 hours of the mafia day are also the last 6 days of my reallife day, and I do sometimes have other shit to do during that time.

@Captain - Goldy has been your top scumread all game. Your excuse that jamiet was trying to tie the vote is BS, since it was 4v3. If you had stayed on goldie your top scumread wouldve been killed and there wasnt a damn thing jamiet couldve done. But you knew he wasnt actually trying to tie it, you just liked my earlier argument that jamiet mightve been a PR.

@Vecna, captain pretty openly scumread both of them, and said he'd vote for either. I don't see it as that weird. How long did you suspect Jamie was a PR, and why?

@Ghug I thought the ferocity with which he defended xorxes and kept attacking maniac meant he mightve been either the 2nd cop (with a scan on a lawyered or framed person) or a watcher that got a scan of someone's house while being visited by maniac for the NK or some other mafia action.

The way he played that EOD wouldve made no sense whatsoever as scum. Im surprised you didnt come to the same conclusion upon a reread of it.

Also the way some people defended their votes on jamiet, and the way they responded after the flip makes me feel its quite likely the scumteam was on him.

Either way, im thinking quite strongly that both wagons were indeed on townies. Ghug + meme for scumteam.

Also a few other thoughts;

-MAFIA would never roleblock me night1 with the immense pressure I recieved on D1
-Y2K claimed drunk, yet you still wanted to lynch him badly (@ghug). Town Ghug would hesitate way more to do that. He would know mafia would have to NK the town RB regardless, and if Y2K was still alive after 2 nights we couldve allways still lynched him.