Sorry for taking so long, I had some errands to run and I did the entirety of this rebuttal on mobile my notes are labeled with asterisks (*):
I suspect that Espi is a hacker.
He seems to be either purposefully acting dumb, or doing a poor job of creating a façade to obfuscate his mafianess.
*****completely overlooks the possibility of him being clueless, which is much more likely****
On page 1:
EXHIBIT 1
“Well, I am sad to say, I am not Mafia this game. I was really hoping to be either a PR to Mafia on my first game to see what is was like, and if I could win. Obviously no one will believe me right now, but I want to have it down for those looking back to this page end game.”
To me, this mindset of posting in order to look back and gloat later is very much mafia-indicative. If you are vanilla townie, and want to put down your marker so that you can gloat later, you’re going to say a set of early mafia reads, so you can brag about them being correct at the end of the game (or forget they ever happened if they were wrong). Consciously thinking about a page 1 post claiming your roll that you can go back to and brag about seems to me to be the work of a hacker.
*Gloating is definitely not the work of a hacker. Hackers either lay low, go with the flow, or direct townie opinion. There's also one or two people at the begining of the game that's like "fuck yeah, let's go lynch some scum bastards, you're going down." That's how I interpreted it.*
He concludes his post with this:
EXHIBIT 2
“Who else thinks that the Cop should not reveal this early on?”
People said so at the time, but I want to reiterate, this seems like a rather overt dumbtell. It could not be more obvious to anyone who knows anything about this game. And Espi said it as if it was a great prompt that might launch a discussion, and as though he was not absolutely sure about it.
*How exactly is phasing something interrogatively a dumbtell? It's just a style of writing. It's pretty obvious that doesn't think the cop should claim. Maybe it was a poor attempt to bait scum. Or maybe he's trying to see how things are done here. Like I said, there was a newbie during this one game that thought claiming D1 was a great idea! Would you have made a case against him? Really? Because he turned to to be the real cop.*
After DL and ND got on Espi’s case for the dumbtell, Espi responded (still on page 1):
EXHIBIT 3
“On the small chance that one of the newbies is the Cop, we might as well give them some tips.”
Fine, but why phrase it like you are unsure, and eager to begin a thoughtful discussion about something that is truly, in your mind, just a tip for a newcomer. That explanation did not fit the comment.
*why is this a separate piece of evidence? Running out of ideas? Using cognitive biases to make your case seem valid? This quote by no means is phrased like he was unsure, if you were referring to exhibit 2, then why even have this as evidence?*
Jeff then voted for Espi on page 2, with no explanation. Espi responded with this:
EXHIBIT 4
“Well Jeff is voting for me again, as he has been doing during the sign up. Expected but I would hope that you change that before the day is over. If you do think I am scum, and worthy of a lynch, then I am more then happy to hear your thoughts where there is so little evidence. Other wise, I begin to suspect you might actually be a Goddamn Commie Mutant Traitor!!!”
To me, Jeff’s unexplained vote was an obvious joke. Espi’s response seems more defensive than I would expect from town. He points out to everyone that Jeff was voting for him before, so the joke vote means nothing. He speaks in a very put on towny voice that he is “more than happy to hear your thoughts” if you think he is “worthy of a lynch.” And then he deflects at the end with a joke. I’ll note that I don’t have a strong read from this post alone. But it fits the mafia narrative well, I think. (possible confirmation bias)
*And this post was also an obvious joke response. It's called playful banter, litterally everyone except you, americaslacker, and bosox has done it. This point is garbage*
At page 3, Guak says “@Jeff: PLEASE DON'T!!!,” which I think was in reference to Jeff doing his “standard ‘vanilla townie’ schtick,” but which Espi thought must be referring to Jeff’s comment that he was scumhunting “Starting with Espi!” So Espi says:
EXHIBIT 5
“Actually guak, please let Jeff target me. I feel he might be one of the better people to convince I am a town, and the sooner we start examining people to see who is town or not, the sooner we can get this ball rolling. I am honored to go first and hope that once I am proven, I can help lead the town to victory.
Do you have any questions for me Jeff, how would you like to proceed, I am new to this.”
As I’ve said earlier, this idea that “hey, everyone ask me questions now so that I can be exonerated” does not make any sense. Hunting is not so artificial, and obviously nobody would be cleared by their self-started inquisition. But Espi goes on with it for several pages as if it is actually a real thing that he believes.
*Maybes he rolls with it because he does not know how things are here. How on earth is this a scum tell?Is there some circumstances that occurred where the mafia now believes in an idea that the town doesn't*
At page 4 Espi says:
EXHIBIT 6
“Yoyo, I think that holding your cards close to you is very smart as it does not show any possibly scum that you suspect them, by voting you state that suspicion openly, which could lead toward them giving away clues, but by not voting, you can get more indirect clues, in my opinion anyway. I may be wrong but this is how I am choosing to play for now.”
I don’t like this explanation. I agree that early votes are not necessary, but certainly not to “hold your cards close to your vest.” We need our cards on the table. We need to share our cards to help each other find town and to force mafia to share their fake cards, which hopefully won’t stand up to scrutiny.
*Again, how the hell is this a scumtell? Having a different opinion does not mean scum. Plenty of people have had this idea, and while I agree that it's bad, it is not scummy*
Though, I still cannot tell for sure from this explanation whether Espi is misguided town, or pretending-too-hard mafia. Later on down the page Espi says:
*THANK YOU! This is the first time you acknowledge the possibility that you could be talking out of your ass*
EXHIBIT 7
“I am hoping that by not voting until I get a larger picture, and by not focusing on one person in particular, I might have a chance to get closer to the Mafia, does that make sense?”
No, that does not make sense.
*AGAIN, How is this evidence? You don't understand where he was getting at. Why not question him about it like you seem to like to do with everyone else. Having a different opinion is an opportunity to create discussion, not accuse someone of being scum*
Midway through page 4, Espi says:
EXHIBIT 8
“ND, telling Jeff was blunt from seeing his posts on the forum. I may be wrong or I may be right, but he was also the first to openly target me, and continued to do so before the game begin. If I can clear myself with him I should be golden.
BTW this is fun, being the focus right now. If I appear to be scummy right now, I do apologize, but I understand if I get Lynched day 1.”
The contention that Jeff was bluntly targeting you seems off, and this reaction seems overly defensive. I don’t think anyone has had much pressure on them yet, and it’s hard to generate much pressure anyway so far from the deadline. And saying that clearing oneself from Jeff would make them “golden,” when Jeff has hardly built a case at all, and when we’re on page 4 strikes me as contrived.
*I'd say this is your best piece of evidence so far. He's defensiveness in this post is definitely worth reviewing but doesnt stand much on its own.*
Also, saying that “I understand if I get Lynched day 1” on page 4 also strikes me as mafia trying too hard again. At that point, nobody had really stated much of a case on Espi. Espi, at that stage, did you really understand why you would be lynched day 1?
On page 5, Espi says:
EXHIBIT 9
“I am also trying to answer questions (the majority of which are at me) while trying to find out the Mafia. As such I am not putting as much effort into my posts now, as that means I am spending less time answering other questions and finding the Mafia.”
I responded to this and urged Espi not to make excuses for poorly thought out posts, and to take the time he needs to help town. The above message fits the pattern that to me seems overly defensive for the early stage of the game, and the less than ample pressure that was being applied at that stage.
*again, this should have been coupled with the other point about defensiveness. It seems like you're trying to split points into more points in order to make it seem like you have a lot of evidence but really, you only have one.*
On page 6, Espi said:
EXHIBIT 10
“I am also taking a more observant role in Scum hunting, being a target instead of actually accusing people for now, as I said I would in the very beginning. My accusations will come later.”
I don’t understand this either. If you are town, purposefully “being a target” is bad for town. You’re probably not going to be cleared unless you die. This sort of altruisitic “I’ll be the martyr target for town” just doesn’t make sense and strikes me as an odd ploy to get town cred. It cannot possibly help town unless you are a correct target.
*I think this is everyone's fault. We should've told him that he needs to be more proactive. Classic to blame the guy who unknowingly commits the crime when it's up to the police to slap him on the wrist from the beginning.*
At page 7, Espi says:
EXHIBIT 11
“I do not intend to fully clear myself, in fact if people do not continue to suspect me I will wonder why.”
If you are a townie, asking people to suspect you, why would they suspect you? And why would you draw conclusions from them not suspecting you? This idea is illogical. Surely you don’t actually believe it.
*LOL this doesn't make any sense to me either but this doesn't mean that he's mafia. The only way i could see the mafia employing this is if they are trying to confuse the town with its faulty logic. Calling him mafia for saying something like this makes about as much sense as what he said.*
CONCLUSION:
Again, the struggle for me is whether Espi is misguided townie or trying-too-hard mafia. I think that his very first post of the game pushes me over the top to reading him mafia. It just doesn't make sense that a vanilla townie would claim as such on page 1, and eagerly look forward to people going back to read the thread to see that you declared your towniness right off the bat.
*It's much more likely that he is misguided, or not guided at all as it seems. Everyone starts somewhere and you'd be very surprised about how many misguided townies are mistaken for scum.*
*In summation, your case makes much more sense that he's trying to figure out how to do things, though you do have a point about his defensive behavior. There is an unbelievable amount of fluff in this writeup and while it seems flowery and legit-looking, it's a rather weak case. To everyone else, don't be sheeple, think for yourself and even if someone has a long, flowery writeup, it doesn't mean it's valid.*
Live and Let Live
no ingame message 10minutes deadline
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