##VOTE Saladin for argumenting in favor of a no lynch. Clearly he did not bother to read my initial post when I said that was scummy, and the only ones who don't read the thread are mafia.

I'll agree that a lynch is the most direct and immediate threat, but it's not the only threat. Any time you call everyone's attention to someone is a threat. If a player had been questioning me like crazy, but voted to abstain, and that player ended up dead during the night, you would have good reason to think that I did it -- even though they never voted to lynch me.

And you're telling me that a mafia member has been lynched first day twice in the past ten games? That's ... not spectacular odds. In fact, I'd call that random chance. In this game, we have almost a 1 in 4 chance of randomly hitting a mafia member. You're telling me that the track record for your strategy is 1 in 5. That's pretty much a shot in the dark, as I've been saying all along.

Saladin, you claim to have a better strategy than a shot in the dark? At least those give us information. I would like to remind you that we can't actually vote by random chance, because there are mafia, and they won't kill each other. And bo wasn't lynched day one, he was just found day one.

No, I don't claim to have a better strategy than a shot in the dark. My first post said that I was taking a shot in the dark because that's all we can do at this point. Everyone else seems to think they're doing some complicated psychological profile, and I'm just pointing out that it all comes down to a shot in the dark.

Oh, I'm sure that at this point, analysis is a better bet than everyone trying to vote randomly, or even letting one person pick a random person to vote.

The more we talk now, the more tonight's death will mean. But I firmly believe that none of you (mafia excluded) have any better idea than I do who is innocent. You want my analysis of who's suspicious? You'll see it tomorrow, and no sooner.

SS you are such a liar, I know perfectly well I am innocent, and Jeff likely is as well, given how ardently he is claiming his innocence!

Okay, so I start off with a response to Jeff. It seems the biggest issue here is much more to do with the constant switching of votes. I had hoped I had explained at least the last 3 pretty well (I just realized I've already voted for 5 different people :P). In sum, my first 2 votes were jokes, as was the course of things at the time. Then, as that eased out, I changed my vote to my views on a scumread. My last 2 were policy votes. I do understand your concern, and I do expect this behavior will be gone by D2, since the jokes are already long over and I expect everyone remaining to be well-engaged here. For now, perhaps you could join me with a vote on slacker? I feel he might need a little more pressure on him to catch his eye and get him to be here.

bo: "I don't get why you all are trying to take the pressure off of Espi" "you're doing a fucking terrible job by letting him off on his slips. Read him how you like but you don't back off right now."
I have called him out and put pressure on him. It's just that I'm not convinced by BB's case.

Espi: You seem to criticize people for saying a lot without contributing anything, but I've seen that from you so much it's unbelievable. What you say doesn't really seem to fit with what I'm seeing. I haven't seen how phil is contradicting yourself. I haven't seen how ND and I are working together. Can you provide examples of these? And, for the sake of clarity, my pressure on guak and its relation to the now defunct bo wagon was that Jeff and I both seemed to be there for the sake of pressure, but guak seemed to be there to occupy space. That's not even the sole basis of my suspicions of guak, but it does embody them.
"Tr votes for slacker, which means that Tr has been the one voting the most for the least reasons. It is page 9, there is a lot of material to go through, and you are still voting for people who aren't on, why?" Policy stuff. We can have that discussion, and it's something Jeff has said he'd endorse. I'm putting pressure on him to get him in and talking. I'm working with information on the side to find who I think is the absolute best lynch, and I don't think my vote limits me in any way from doing that. I'm also starting to worry about slacker, actually. I hope he shows up with these last 24 hours.

"You vote for scum. Scum night kills you. It's the (extreme OMGUS) mafia way."

I'm not OMGUS'ing. I'm just trying to figure out what SS is getting at.

No-one will take night kill analysis seriously unless it's very sophisticated, and is corroborating evidence to an actual case. Reasons for mafia kills early are particularly unpredictable, too. Sometimes it's fear, sometimes it's long-term planning concerning play-style, sometimes it's getting rid of someone calling you out. By all means, look into what the kill might mean, but don't rely on it entirely, and consider that the mafia have a lot of potential objectives for the kill.

"and Jeff likely is as well, given how ardently he is claiming his innocence!" Uhhhhh........ Please explain this, Espi.

@Saladin: Not lynching is bad because it gives us less town-directed lynches. Making a mistake D1 and lynching town is fine as it gives us information later on. Every single game that town has won, D1 lynch analysis has played a major role in helping find at least one of the mafia members. Also, I would argue that lynching mafia in D1 should be impossible in a game with town power roles, as every mafia member should claim power role when threatened with death, but the fact that twice mafiamen have been lynched D1 show that even then it is possible to do so whether because the mafiaman is not around late game to claim or because two mafiamen are under suspicion.

@Espi - you accidentally did as you quoted me voting him

All in all, we need to lynch someone so that later on we have a clue of what we are doing. Just the fact that we are having this discussion is a waste of time and effort, and we should focus on voting Saladin since he clearly is leading town towards a time-wasting path.

So I ask, @Saladin: why do you insist on following this path when you are clearly wrong?

@TrPrado: Thanks for your explanation. Makes sense to me. I like switching votes too but not that much. It almost felt like ghug had issued "sudo vote like me" on your brain thus far in Day 1.

##VOTE ND

ND, where have you gone, brother? I was getting a nice townish feeling from you early on, but that's fading. Help us scum hunt!!

@Tr, "Hey now!

Give me a little more credit than that. I claimed my vanilla-ness is as many posts as I could!" and "I perhaps should have clarified that my whole schtick in two previous mafia games here was to sign off nearly every post with "Vanilla townie. 100% guaranteed!" which drove most people to insanity and ultimately ended up with my innocent self getting lynched. So, I promised I wouldn't do that ever again.

I am *trying* to do that, but some people keep bringing it up. Last explanation of it for me. Promise!"

That was a joke. Can we get a default emoticon to type when you are joking? :)

I will go back later and post a few examples from where I saw you and he working together.

@DL, BB did this on page 10 with a quote on bo. and if you notice in my quote ""Wow, this is much busier than where I usually play. Should have no trouble posting five times a day. I think it's important yup vote to kill on the first day. The more people who vote to abstain, the less information we have. Of course we have no real information the first day, so my vote is effectively random, but I'll say [redacted]VOTE Jeff.

Jeff is mafia. This is the truth! This is my belief! ...At least for now."

to which Tr says "Glad to see SS has made an appearance. Though, his first post is mostly reiterated stuff and a bit of a joke vote.""
I typed [redacted] oblivious much?

BB typed on page 10 "(page 2), “[redacted]vote bo, I'm cop and I scanned him on Night Zero and it said he was mafia /s” (page 3)" without the [redacted]

Espi, I recommend :p, and also avoiding jokes unless they're really funny

@Guak - I can't find your initial "NL is bad" post, tell me the page number please?

@guak - I don't see myself as clearly wrong.

1. The first day's lynch is random chance at best.
2. It's good for us to reduce the loss of innocent life as much as possible.
3. We don't need to lynch someone to get information.
4. Therefore it's best not to lynch on the first day.

For the record, I'm not absolutely opposed to lynching on the first day. It's not a major setback, and you all seem to think it's necessary. It just seems to me that it's the "Sandblasting the Mona Lisa" version of deduction.

It was on page three with the things he said he "knows about this game"
"5) Voting No Lynch in the first day is scummy"

SS: "The more we talk now, the more tonight's death will mean" combined with "You want my analysis of who's suspicious? You'll see it tomorrow, and no sooner" throws me off a bit. Wouldn't throwing a bit of suspicion to the wind help make the death a bit more meaningful, by your own words?

@Town,

We are 24 hours in, halfway to our first lynch. I’m concerned that some of us aren’t helping. I’ve done a quick re-read of the thread, trying to focus on posts that are either (1) helpful in pursuing reasonable inquiries, (2) helpful in taking reasonable positions backed by some thought, (3) helpful in guiding the town to perform better, or(4) well-reasoned defenses.

I came away with a list of people who I think have contributed, and a list of people who have not contributed. I’ll concede that this is fairly subjective, and I don’t want people to get bent out of shape and declare “What about my post on page 7! That was so helpful!” I’m not necessarily drawing conclusions here about who is town and who is mafia, I’m more trying to encourage the town to improve our performance. So, I request that people who are on the list as not contributing make an effort to perform better, rather than defending your effort to date. That is what should help the town.

Contributors:
Phil_a_s
Death Llama
TrPrado
Saladin
ND
Bo Sox
Balki

Non-Contributors
Espi
guak
Yoyoyozo
americaslacker
Jeff Kuta
Lucland

Here are the reasons that particular people stood out to me as contributors:

Phil (page 12) - useful and convincing analysis on Espi that is consistent with some of the shorter questions and probes that Phil has been using throughout. Demonstrating both effort and efficacy. I also appreciate the clear descriptions of Webdip and general mafia mechanics on page 12.

Death Llama (pages 6, 8, and 9) - useful comparison between Jeff in this game and Jeff in a previous game, and reasoning and conviction on reads of Saladin, Guak, Balki, Phil, and Espi.

TrPrado (pages 8 and 9) - seems to be doing a sincere job at encouraging lurkers to begin to contribute, and posts the most detailed reads list we had seen to date. Follows that up with a detailed analysis of Phil.

Saladin (pages 8, 9, and 13) – I’m sure his inclusion here will be controversial. But I think he is making solid effort, and looking pretty town under fire. The backstory from his previous mafia experience is helpful, and he’s making an effort to explain his stated strategy ideas. I disagree with his strategy ideas (for reasons that Death Llama put best), but I can at least understand the thinking behind them. Saladin has received a lot of scrutiny for his statement about a random vote. I think he has held up fairly well under that scrutiny. I think there is a coherent argument for a random vote, and Saladin has done a decent job making it. A random vote is free from the influence of the only three people with complete, concrete knowledge about identities, which means there is at least one reason it might fare better than a vote based on arguments on D1 (which may be mafia-influenced). The limited empirical data of a small sample of 10 mafia games here is consistent with that. Saladin has not pushed hard in reads of others yet (and I hope he will), but I think his reasonable self-defense has served the town well, as I happen to believe him.

ND (page 9) – post with many good questions that I think are generally good questions and generally designed to improve town performance and deepen useful inquiries.

Bo Sox (pages 9, 10, 11, and 12) - enters the game with a useful set of questions to deepen reasonable inquiries. Follows that up with some reads. More assertions then analysis in these reads, and I wish there was evidence clearly listed so that the list of reads is designed to convince others and not just take a position. But, there is certainly utility in seeing everyone’s positions (even without thorough analysis) as well. Also, I appreciate the call to everyone to get reads out by 24 hour mark.

Balki (passim) - stands out as clearly most handsome, regardless of cogency.

Everyone else – some of them have been frequent posters (most haven’t), and none of their posts so far stood out to me as being particularly useful.

Please, don’t get defensive. Get better.

Sorry phil, those that find me funny usually find me funny when I don't try, when I do try it is almost never funny.

BB, I will do my best to live up to your expectations!

And...screw you, bo!

The lesson I learned from getting lynched in M7 is that people really don't tolerate unconventional behavior when their own necks are on the line. My lynch had little to do with analysis, though I will admit that the typical webDip "format" of analysis did take a little of adjustment.

@Balki … I was talking to the person who posted above me, the one that directly addressed me just moments before I posted. My vote was on Espi, but now it's not.

Also, you posted a contribution list. Mind posting full reads just for clarity's sake? Clearly, not all of the non-contributors are scum and not all of the contributors have to be town either.

@DL … mafia generally aren't going to grow so confrontational about a simple issue like whether or not they can manage to get something done by tonight. Typically, they'll just do it, because they have nothing else on their mind but making themselves look good. Espi's reaction tells me that he's not caving to my pressure, which is a towntell.

@SS … that's WIFOM in a nutshell, like phil said.

As for your other piece, are you proposing we all cast our suspicions without voting? That seems like a way, way too complicated method - have you seen what happens at our deadlines? The place is a madhouse. I like where you're thinking, but votes change in a heartbeat at the very end of the day. Read up the other mafia threads and look at the deadlines. I just don't see such a strategy working when things are so dynamic.

Besides, if nobody dies, we have no information from a death. Only a death reveals a role, and from that role we look for connections and other trends that indicate who holds an allegiance with who (and who doesn't know they hold an allegiance with). We just have to do our best to find mafia.

@Tr … fair. How about mine? It's largely composed of things that happened after Balki's case was posted. What do you think of it?

##CALL GM - vote count please?

Jeff, your lynch in M7 was because we felt you were useless and intentionally being useless, partly because you were so stubborn when we asked you to help us understand your reads and clarifying a number of stances you made. Mafia is only half being right. The other is getting the town to realize that you're right, and you couldn't do that, so you got lynched because we couldn't figure out where you were going and you didn't help us understand it.

##CALLGMs, could we get a vote count update since we're halfway through D1?

I assume you're going to be tight with your judgment if players quote someone else's vote. Please clarify. Thanks.

Also, @all, can we please post reads? I asked once already. A number of players have posted some pretty detailed analysis on individuals but it would be helpful to have something more universal to look back at after the day is out.