There are several questions for me, or comments I’d like to respond to, all from page 9. My responses follow.
(1)
Espi asked me to answer his earlier question, which I think (correct me if I’m wrong) is this one:
“One thing strikes me though, yoyo hinted at being down and phil straight out said he was town also on page 1, why did you ignore this,”
@Espi, If I’m understanding correctly, you’re saying that I’m reading certain actions of yours as mafia-indicative, while not pointing out the same actions in others. If that’s your point, you are correct. I felt compelled to do an in-depth review and analysis of you specifically based on a few of the things you said (mostly the “let’s have an inquisition on me so that the town can learn I’m one of them” line of thought). I have not spent the same amount of time analyzing others, though I expect I'll spend a lot more time on some of them. I have no doubt that others have also displayed some of your individual tells. But I don’t believe anyone else has displayed your two biggest tells in my opinion: (1) the initial post flagging that you wanted people to look back after the game to see how you claimed town on page 1, and (2) the bizarre, faulty, and counter-productive strategy to make yourself a target.
(2)
Yoyo says on page 9:
“all of the evidence [Balki] used highly suggests that [Espi] is a very clueless townie. This doesn't seem like the type of thing the mafia would pull. But maybe you're right. This is definitely something to revisit down the line, but as far as our first lynch goes, is a poor choice.”
@Yoyo, I agree that some of the evidence I presented on Espi is consistent with clueless or misdirected townie, as I made clear in my post. But I don’t understand your assertion “This is definitely something to revisit down the line, but as our first lynch goes, is a poor choice.” You’re going to have to back that up with some reasoning. It’s hard to find mafia on the first day. We should maximize our chances by carefully sharing reads, having a fulsome discussion, and lynching the person who is most likely to be mafia. Whatever role that person flips, we’ll gain more information about the various defenses, attacks, and votes. If you don’t think Espi is the person most likely to flip mafia, please engage in the discussion and share your reasons so that you can convince others. If you agree that Espi is most likely to flip mafia, but there are other reasons not to vote for him, please state them clearly so the rest of us can evaluate them and we don’t have to take your word for it.
@town -- this goes for everyone in town, even if you are slightly disengaged by virtue of your boring at first blush role. Don't be lazy. Let's play to win. Three lynches. Three mafia.
Also, the post that stood out to me when doing my re read that pushed me off of the “clueless townie” narrative was Espi's first post on page 1. I’ll post it again here in full:
“Well, I am sad to say, I am not Mafia this game. I was really hoping to be either a PR to Mafia on my first game to see what is was like, and if I could win. Obviously no one will believe me right now, but I want to have it down for those looking back to this page end game. I look forward to working with the rest of you town, and hopefully we win this game. Mr. Cop, I do not think you should reveal just yet but others may be wrong on this.
Who else thinks that the Cop should not reveal this early on?”
His statement “I want to have it down for those looking back to this page end game” does not sound to me like it comes from a vanilla townie. A vanilla townie would not start the game with the notion that folks after the game are going to be re-reading the first page of the thread thinking about what vanilla townie Espi claimed on D1. Especially a vanilla townie who is self-proclaimed new to the game. On the other hand, a hacker would absolutely be considering his legacy, and considering the End of Game reader who will later read D1 knowing full well who the bad guys are.
This is the post that plants Espi firmly at the top of my suspects list for now, and I don’t think it matches the “clueless townie” narrative that is his best defense.
(3)
Espi says on page 9:
“If you notice, while my posts aren't saying a lot, they are the ones being viewed the most right now. Hopefully that helps later on as more early information can be gained from me.”
@Espi, I think that most of this town is having a very hard time understanding your strategy. You keep saying that we’re all going to learn information from the fact that you’re putting a target on your back, and that you’re carefully analyzing all the people who are posting about you. But why would a foolhardy pursuit of a vanilla townie who purposefully put himself under fire give us more information than a pursuit of whatever other person we’d be spending our time hunting if you were playing with a more traditional townie strategy? I’ve devoted a great part of my evening reviewing your posts so far. If you’re vanilla townie purposefully acting scummy to put yourself under the microscope, then your wasting my time and the town’s time. That kind of time wasting is only good for mafia.
If you really are town, you need to think very carefully about your strategy, and try your best to make sure that our entire town is spending its resources wisely.
(4)
Espi says on page 9
“I am not very satisfied with my answers, but as a lot of my premise is based on "wait and see" I don't have a good explanation for what I am doing. I am interested in your reply as I am certain I did not satisfy all of your questions. Which of my responses stands out most toward you? Is there anything else that I should spend more effort on explaining?”
@Espi, yes, two things I’d like you to address for now. First, in your response to Exhibit 1, you say “If you notice, while my posts aren't saying a lot, they are the ones being viewed the most right now. Hopefully that helps later on as more early information can be gained from me.” I don’t understand what you mean. If you are vanilla townie, the fact that you’ve led us on a wild goose chase when we could be catching the real bad guys is obviously bad. We have limited scumhunting resources, and our enemies will cheer and gain strength with every faulty rabbit hole we go down.
Second, I’d like you to give us some background on you if you’re willing. About how old are you? What’s your general education level? How much experience do you have with mafia and with diplomacy? And where did you gain your experience?
(5)
Bo Sox asked me at page 9:
“@Balki … why did DeathLlama "stand out the most" in saying a lot but saying nothing when you posted to him earlier? What was different about him that inclined you to post at him?”
@Bo Sox, this was my initial impression at the top of page 5, and I’ll note that Death Llama’s contributions improved significantly in quality (in my view) after I made that post. But my statement at the time was based on Death Llama’s use of a whole lot of real estate to accomplish very little for town. For example:
“FIRST POSTTTTTT” (page 1), “Oh no I've been caught ##suicide ##yogainferno” (page 1), “Mafia games tend to start with jokeposting, and this is no different - you can get a bit of info out of it, but nothing really valuable, and otherwise it just wastes time. Starting off with a discussion topic would be a lot better. I don't have anything at the moment, but I'll try to think of one and if somebody else has one the floor's yours” (page 1), “I suppose not - something interesting to note is that mafia appears to not have a roleblock” (page 1), “Arbitrarily moving your vote after somebody tells you you should is a great idea too - TrPrado for Mafia MVP” (page 2), “Prado with an expert deflection, and the crowd goes wild!” (page 2), “@Yoyo - 35 is too much, he'll just toss "100% Vanilla Town Confirmed! (TM)" at you and get it done in five” (page 2), “7) DL sucks so much Guak can't think of anything to write 8) ND posts literal novels every two hours because he needs better hobbies” (page 2), “##vote bo, I'm cop and I scanned him on Night Zero and it said he was mafia /s” (page 3)
(6)
DeathLlama asked me at the bottom of page 9:
“@Balki -
"I think that his very first post of the game pushes me over the top to reading him mafia. It just doesn't make sense that a vanilla townie would claim as such on page 1..." Why?”
@DeathLlama, I discuss that in my exhibits post on Espi (EXHIBIT 1) and above in this response at (2).
Live and Let Live
no ingame message 10minutes deadline
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