* countries *like* Norway

http://gfycat.com/SilkyBoringHorsechestnutleafminer

We'll stay in, the margin of victory will be in double figures, and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

@ Octavious: What makes you so sure of that?

The dirty deal with Turkey probably came at the right time for the Remain camp. Barring another European terror attack, I think the UK will stay despite Cameron's best efforts to bungle the campaign.

What would you vote, if you were living in the UK, Putinski?

I would vote to leave, probably. Bad for the UK economically but it'd remove Washington's Trojan horse from pestering the EU.

I'll be voting to leave. I have no problem with immigration; but monstrosities like TTIP and the treatment of the democratically elected government in Greece show how the EU has just become more and more beholden to corporate interests and extreme market liberalism over common sense. There is no sense of European solidarity earlier; and whilst it currently does have useful measures regarding safeguards for Worker's Rights... these have been getting slowly repealed or relaxed with there being zero chance of any new ones being added. Whether it's the Right to be Forgotten, or the horrific migration deal with Turkey, or the idiotic proposed expansions to countries like Turkey, Georgia, and Ukraine... the EU needs to be torn down and started again with a clean slate and far fewer countries in a couple of decades.

solidarity anymore*

@ Hellenic Riot: Do you realise that if the UK leaves the EU, it will remain a signatory to all of the World Trade Organisation's agreements on free trade? The Government would almost certainly seek to join the EEA or at least the ETFA as well.

Leaving the EU does not mean leaving the world of "free markets".

As for European solidarity, one of the greatest factors harming European solidarity has been the behavior of the UK.

Maybe Putin33 is right that they'd be better of without us.

* better off

I have to agree with Octavious. We'll stay in by a large margin

I ask the same question of you that I asked of him, then. Why are you confident of that outcome? The polls are split down the middle.

I know we'll stay in those, Jamie, but we will not necessarily be part of TTIP - and as we've been one of the driving forces behind said TTIP, I think it's better for both the EU and for us if we leave in that regard.

As an active Labour and Momentum member I'm quite aware what the consequences will be. But I think in the long term, the breakup of the European Union will be a very good thing for workers across Europe.

I do not think we will actually leave; but I expect the margin to be somewhere around 53-47

I think it's a ridiculous decision to leave the EU at such a crucial turning point in it's history... Britain joined the EU at the wrong time, and now it is choosing to leave the EU at the wrong time. There are hoards of reforms about to be set in place, remember you can always leave the EU, but you cannot always come back in.

Yeah right, if the EU needs the UK back in the future, they'd beg them to rejoin.

Well we don't need UK back, so "begging" will not happen.

But still it would be kinda sad if you left, but that is entirely your own choice! No-one will try to stop you.

@ Jamie

Read this article

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/telephone-internet-polling-different-results

Then look at the difference between the internet referendum polls and the telephone referendum polls

Then factor in that, when it doubt, people lean to the devil they know.

There will be no Brexit.

@'bo_sox48
Yeah right, if the EU needs the UK back in the future, they'd beg them to rejoin.'

Why would the EU need anything from the UK? Collectively the EU economies (even without the UK) rival the US and China, population-wise they supercede the US. Wealth-wise they supercede China. And that wealth is spreading...

France retains a security council veto, and the EU is fairly well represented in the UN.

I don't see what the EU would ever need from the UK... They might push laws to hurt the city of london's position as a global financial capital, but i think trade agreements would largely prohibit that... Visa restrictions may be challenging, and what happens when France stop allowing the UK border police operate in Calais (waiting for people to be processed in British soil - where they can apply for refugee status and are legally required to be processed... That could hurt... Scottish independence would hurt the UK a lot more and the SNP have almost promised to push for it again if a majority of Scots vite to remain in the EU, while the rest of the UK vote to leave...

I don't know.

@ Jamie

Also

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/uk-eu-referendum/

The bookies have a damned good record at calling referenda.

Also, the history of EU reporting in the media has been overwhelmingly negative. All of the Brexit arguments have been made repeatedly for years. They can bring nothing new to the party.

ALLOW ME

1. If David Cameron ever comes to Europe again with all sorts of "do what I want or else"s we should have an emergency clause that kicks the UK out of everything that the UK is currently in.

2. I'm not insensitive to the island-argument. I'd also be sensitive to the historical argument that the UK played a positive role in the liberation of Europe and should get some nice stuff out of the EU. Just not like this.

3. It's funny how somehow Hellenic Riot conceives the EU as something that pulls the UK to the right. Okay that's it in a nutshell.

@octavious Nice to see Ladbrokes prediction. It confirms my own gut feeling that the UK will choose wisely in the end and denounce the arguments of the xenophobics, nationalists and the isolationists. Instead the UK will choose cooperation against those tendencies and continue to work for peace together in the same way as Winston Churchill was advocating after the end of WWII. Great news for the EU but even better news for the UK itself! :D

@ peterlund

Unfortunately, peter, you are unable to put any trust in what I say as I am an uneducated idiot that you dislike. Hellenic Riot is far more your sort of person.