M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

[teacon7]

I suppose there is a minimal chance of scum winning still, but I don't really see it.

How do you see it happening?

I think we lynch durga today. she flips scum, to no one's great surprise.

You lament to the empty mafQT, try to NK me anyway because CBA says no one else is going to challenge you this much. doc protects me N2.

Something inevitably comes up for me in RL, I'm not around to defend myself, and get ML'd D3.

N3 you nk ND or maybe bozo, whomever you haven't already pocketed.

After that, it's gonna be tough for you. Not gonna lie. I think you told us how you felt already:

@xorxes -
Do you think shy scum interacting only with his teammates is good scum play?

It's horrible scum play, as shown in this game.

[FlaviusAetius]

Hello hello, all!
Looks like I've been subbed in!

[FlaviusAetius]

Luckily I have been following this game and good job on getting damo!
I definitely did not expect rdrivera to be any role, that was surprising!
Xorxes is definitely a townsperson from what I've seen, and teacon is I'm not sure...
ND is also a townsperson.
That's from what I've seen so far...
I'm going to catch up on this game tomorrow, and then give all my reads, hopefully, some outsider views can offer a new perspective!

[teacon7]

I think this makes Moscow-teacon an unlikely pair.

teacon explains here that his push on ND (who was at the time a leading lynch candidate) was not really based on him scumreading ND, but it was more to see how others reacted. This post (and others) will make it very difficult for teacon to vote for ND when it was 4-4 with damo and he had to break the tie.

I see what you're saying, but that's silly.
1) I didn't vote ND because I didn't really scumread ND.
2) damo was already in my lynch pool.
3) a tie was avoided.

Do a cost-benefit analysis on this. Which is more worth it for scum!me to do at EOD: risk looking worse in order to save the godfather, or bus the most important member of my team to death?

Maybe you would play it differently as scum. If you were scum, Xorxes, under what conditions would you bus the godfather?

I practically never bus, and I usually don't even scumread my teammates, so I doubt I'd find myself in that position.

Your choices as scum!you here were:

(1) vote for ND against what you had been saying all day. Not really an option because even if it saved the day it compromised both you and damo.
(2) vote for damo and at least try to get some towncred from that, hoping also something may still happen that would allow you to change your vote (hence the big BUT in your vote)
(3) do nothing in spite of me just pointing out that your logical course of action as town was to break the tie to lynch your scumread. This would place a lot of doubts on you and do nothing for damo who might still be lynched anyway when emc voted.

Clearly (3) seems like the best course of action, at least in the heat of the moment.

how was scum!teacon supposed to know that emc would vote for damo? the lynch was tied at 15 minutes to EoD. You know as well as I that this is FAR from settled.

Xorx, your entire case here is entirely NAI.

As town, these were my options:
1) vote ND, who was not in my lynch pool. He had good points and he had bad points, but I didn't want him to swing.
2) vote damo, who was in my lynch pool, for reasons I explained earlier. reasons, btw, that confirmed town like rdriv liked a lot.
3) do nothing, and wait for someone else to do something.

Which is the towniest course of action there, for town!teacon?

[FlaviusAetius]

For now Im going to park my vote on teacon, but I am certainly open to changing it, probably will after I catch up
##vote teacon

[FlaviusAetius]

Anyone who didnt vote for damo early, is clearly quite suspicious in my eyes.
That means ND, emc and teacon.
I think ND is cleared
emc and teacon, are on my list.
I dont know why you guys are choosing durga(yes I still have to go back, will do it tomorrow, just needed to get this out here)

[FlaviusAetius]

Siding with xorxes is probably a good idea regardless in this situation, so the evidence in my mind is just piling up on you teacon.

[teacon7]

I have shown why your vote does not really exonerate you because it was pretty much forced.
The fact you won't even admit that your vote was pretty much forced is also telling.

You're Affirming the Consequent here. It's a logical fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent

Affirming the consequent, sometimes called converse error, fallacy of the converse, or confusion of necessity and sufficiency, is a formal fallacy of taking a true conditional statement (e.g., "If the lamp were broken, then the room would be dark,") and invalidly inferring its converse ("The room is dark, so the lamp is broken,") even though the converse may not be true. This arises when a consequent ("the room would be dark") has one or more other antecedents (for example, "the lamp is not plugged in" or "the lamp is in working order, but is switched off").

Converse errors are common in everyday thinking and communication and can result from, among other causes, communication issues, misconceptions about logic, and failure to consider other causes.

[FlaviusAetius]

Oh!
And to anyone who is like "Where is this Flavius coming from!"
<3 I'm not actually a noobie, I just pretended to be, I've played mafia in real life before, online does give a certain flavor, but I've watched games on the forum before

[teacon7]

I'm not dead because:

(1) there was a chance I might be doc-saved
(2) I had shown extreme conviction that you are scum, and that's a good reason to let me live both if you are town (because then scum can celebrate me trying to lynch you) or if I am right (because otherwise you risk people listening to me and lynching you once it's established my intentions were pure).

So I'm not sure why you think it's so unlikely I'm not dead. I'm an early NK in most of my town games, but rarely N1 because scum are afraid of saves (this was less important this time because of the one-shot only, but still a factor).

That's a fair point.
It could also be (3) scum!xorx is picking the NK's.
But I didn't remember that scum might fear a docsave.
Maybe you and HR should start an ascended-meta invitational league, where you could play (for a while) without the fearkilling. I feel for you.

[FlaviusAetius]

teacon, from what I've read, it seems like you are another good person at Mafia.
I looked at your post for pinning down Durga as a scum.
In it you said; @vapor what the hell. I thought you were the cop.

If xorxes was a mafia, do you not think he would have thought the same?
The mafia team got the cop either out of dumb-luck or have found something we haven't, I'm siding on the former.

Also if xorxes wasn't on the right track, what reason do the mafia have to kill him? Let him be a suspect, in which it seems you've made him out to be.
Perhaps because this was your plan?

[Percy Williams]

I agree @flavius, I think mafia got the cop by dumb luck.

One of the main reasons Durga looks scummy is how desperate she was towards the end of day 1 to get another lynch wagon going besides damo.

[teacon7]

So your case is, if i'm hearing you right:
I'm scum with godfather damo
I *deliberately* say out loud that scum are trying to draw a scan onto the godfather

I read it more as a suggestion to your teammates than as a description of what was going on.

That's a pretty convenient read for you.
I was trying to soft suggestions to the guy I thought was cop. I didn't know if ND was playing lightning rod as a town reaction test, or as scum godfather.

I scumread damo and not ND in an attempt to draw a scan onto damo
and then i kill damo because I'm have no other options

Yes, but of course at the time you scumread damo (very weakly) and you said you would not lynch ND (after trying to get people to vote for him and seeing a wagon forming fast, maybe you got scared that you would be held responsible and so came up with the reaction test story) there was no way for you to know that those were going to be basically the only options at EOD.

I was the the second person on ND. that's not a fast forming wagon. I left ND when a) emc gave me an indication he wasn't just voting for the easy option, and b) I followed my copread. ND had 3 total votes. that's not a fast forming wagon. look at the vote tracker.
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/game_st ... =day&num=1

btw, you're Affirming the Consequent again. You're saying:

he had to move to damo,
therefore he must have accidentally set up the conditions wherein he had to move to damo.

wait maybe it's post hoc ergo propter hoc.
someone read the articles and lmk which one it is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc


Are you so tunnelled that you can't see another cause for me moving to damo? or are you unwilling to consider alternatives: town teacon moves from one person in his lynch pool to another?

The argument is flawed in several ways.

FIRST:
If I was scum and trying to draw a copscan onto the godfather, how does that somehow single out damo against any of the other players I had a light scumread on?

You couldn't guarantee it, of course, just facilitate it.

So your argument here is at least 66% more improbable.

Which is more probable:
scum!teacon openly coaches buddies D1,
or
town!teacon, who is actively engaging in a variety of conversations, points out a game-mechanics angle for the cop to consider.
?
HM....

I wasn't forced to do anything at EOD. there were other people present at eod who could have moved. moscow did. emc did. you could have moved to ND to prevent a tie. durga was TRYING to get people to move. You yourself told me (and only me? hmm) to move.

Not only you, I also told Vapor and everyone who was there. You think by telling you I was setting you a trap? Explain!

I'd have to go back and look to see if you called out to anyone else by name.

Recall that during EoD I did post copy/pastes of the "who is online" list at the bottom. At several points there were lots of guests, emc, etc. notably, you were still posting and your name didn't appear down there. How reliable is that listing at the bottom of "who is online" ...?

At the time, I was reading your calls for people to consolidate to other wagons as a pretty towny move.

Scum (especially bussing scum) would have way less motivation to move. certainly less than town, who doesn't want to see a tie.

There's a false premise in your argument.
Casting it as "well only teacon could have moved," ergo "he's solely responsible becuase he had to do it becuase he already townread ND" is a false dichotomy.

What are you talking about? When did I say only you could move? I said for you, your move was pretty much forced. It was also forced for Vapor, but he has the excuse of "I'm so in another planet that I can't be held responsible for my actions". You, on the other hand, were very present in the game. You could not take that out.

My move wasn't forced. Not as scum, not as town.

I was not the only one "very present" at EoD. Other people were a) online, and b) posting. It was far from inevitable that damo would swing. durga was talking about new wagons, and her moving would break the tie. emc hadn't voted yet, which could have broken the tie. heck I could have sat on percy till the flip and someone else would have done something.

Why was I, and not another, forced to do anything at all?

Perhaps because every ounce of your shade against me is a convoluted, tinfoil hat framework contingent on scumreading that one action?

It wasn't just ND vs damo. I didn't have to move. I could have stayed where I was like many other players.

You would have looked very bad if you didn't move there, do you disagree?

I don't think I'd have looked any worse than, say, durga, who was talking about starting other wagons... but didn't. Or worse than emc, who wasn't voting.

If you're going to try to take the credit for the damo lynch, you can't also make this about how teacon had only two options. If I was scum and willing to bus the GF, why not just sit on my hands and watch a tie happen? I wasn't the only one online.

In hindsight, you're probably telling yourself you should have done that. At the moment, you probably felt more trapped.

That doesn't really respond to my point, it's just another card to the house of cards you've built on this.

But I bet the scum who DID bus his buddy is wishing he had done something else...

Why is xorx casting my EoD1 actions in a false dichotomy? Why make EoD about me and not anyone else?

EOD was not all about you. The only thing I did is explain why your vote does not give you any special towncred, because it was pretty much your only option.

You're not just refuting a point about towncred. fwiw, I don't care about towncred. You're using my vote at EoD as the basis for scumreading the majority of my actions so far. Just about every other part of your case depends on this one action being scummy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

[teacon7]

this transcends beyond the walls of this game, I'm fully trusting that you wouldn't be so unscrupulous to pocket me to this extent only to shows a wolverine form in the end.

Peace to you.
Get a link to the godthread. I'll be vindicated there.

(except for some pretty bad messages to the godthread about what I thought was going on N1.)

[teacon7]

Luckily I have been following this game and good job on getting damo!

Welcome!

I'm going to catch up on this game tomorrow, and then give all my reads, hopefully, some outsider views can offer a new perspective!

yes PLEASE. if xorx/teacon turns out to be town vs town, we oughtta be slapped for tunneling and giving lurky scum an easy pass.


@Flav - What did you think of vapor's play?

[teacon7]

Siding with xorxes is probably a good idea regardless in this situation, so the evidence in my mind is just piling up on you teacon.

lol hey flav.

no, siding with xorx is not a great idea in every situation. what if he's scum?

If you're town, you may want to consider the prudence of following someone "just because." You're smart enough to follow the game... Think for yourself. read and ask me questions.

@flav - how caught up are you?

@flav - were you surprised by your alignment?

[teacon7]

If xorxes was a mafia, do you not think he would have thought the same?
The mafia team got the cop either out of dumb-luck or have found something we haven't, I'm siding on the former.

Good question. I think they got lucky. rdrivera was widely townread, so it makes sense they'd want to keep a core of widely townread players from forming.

[teacon7]

Also if xorxes wasn't on the right track, what reason do the mafia have to kill him? Let him be a suspect

Normally, town xorx is fairminded and considers a lot of possible angles, so even if he's on the wrong track n1 he could find someone d2.

Town xorx doesn't spend all night and day pushing one ridiculous lynch.

Does that description fit xorx here?

[teacon7]

Well, I have a lot more I want to do/read/write/answer, but I'm going to have to call it for now. See you folks tomorrow.

[teacon7]

one last thought before I go though:

@flav what kind of mafia have you played before?

In that kind of mafia, do the mafia members vote together (for the same person) or spread their votes out (for different people)?